Coronavirus

[cascadeco]

There's contagious people with little symptoms to no symptoms and a long period of contagiousness (weeks) - it's easily confused with a small cold and is already spread all across the globe.

This is my biggest 'thing' about it. I know that if I were to have mild symptoms, akin to having a cold, I wouldn't get tested. If I had a fever, of course I would not go to work, but in both cases, I'd have it. I have to imagine the vast majority of folks would be the same; thus in reality it's everywhere, but only a % of folks decide to get tested or are tested, whether due to being hospitalized, or in urgent care, or I suppose those who are worried about it or have come in contact with people who definitively have it.

I could have it right now, and not know it. (I am in the midst of my usual annual chronic month or two of off-and-on allergies/feeling I'm coming down with something).

 

[Maou]

My method for fighting the Corona virus at work: Walking around, spraying lysol, and using lysol wipes on desks, handles, phones etc while singing "Everyone was Kung flu fighting, its spreading fast as lightning"without saying a word to anyone.

 

[EcK]

This is my biggest 'thing' about it. I know that if I were to have mild symptoms, akin to having a cold, I wouldn't get tested. If I had a fever, of course I would not go to work, but in both cases, I'd have it. I have to imagine the vast majority of folks would be the same; thus in reality it's everywhere, but only a % of folks decide to get tested or are tested, whether due to being hospitalized, or in urgent care, or I suppose those who are worried about it or have come in contact with people who definitively have it.

I could have it right now, and not know it. (I am in the midst of my usual annual chronic month or two of off-and-on allergies/feeling I'm coming down with something).

Yes that s why they can’t contain it. It’s not feasible. They can just slow it down and reduce the size of the epidemic - and hope a vaccine comes before this thing becomes a permanent fixture.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Yes that s why they can’t contain it. It’s not feasible. They can just slow it down and reduce the size of the epidemic - and hope a vaccine comes before this thing becomes a permanent fixture.

It will be a permanent fixture, but over time people will start to build immunity

 

[FemMecha]

It feels like this thread is *this* close to talking about certain other viruses.

Anyway, I sometimes doubt this virus is significantly worse than what typically happens every few years, and hype is being made over it to engineer an economic crash so that the people at the top can benefit by gaining more money and power.

 

[Maou]

Real threat: Overwhelming health system

Other than that, stay home if sick. Eat healthy, stay hydrated, and so hire UBER EATS.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Tom Hanks. Here's hoping he's one of the lucky 8 out of 10 (because if he isn't 70, he's close to it).

 

[Stigmata]

Tom Hanks. Here's hoping he's one of the lucky 8 out of 10 (because if he isn't 70, he's close to it).

If I lose Kobe and Tom Hanks in the same year, I will lose my shit....

Tom Hanks, listen to me real good: if you die on me, I'll KILL YA! YOU HEAR ME? I'LL KILL YA!!!

(Disclaimer: I promise I won't really kill anybody, I'm just making a joke. Please don't ban me from the forum and/or the internet.)

 

[highlander]

It feels like this thread is *this* close to talking about certain other viruses. Anyway, I sometimes doubt this virus is significantly worse than what typically happens every few years, and hype is being made over it to engineer an economic crash so that the people at the top can benefit by gaining more money and power.

I don't think so. The issue is the number of hospitalizations and fatality rate. Just look at what happened in italy and how the health system has been overwhelmed. I think it was pretty smart to close the border to China but we seemed to have screwed up with testing. The reason Washington has so many cases is they went rogue and were testing more aggressively because a doctor there happened to be running a study that directly intersected with this event and quickly developed a test and they started using it. The numbers in the US are probably 10x what is currently being reported. The best expert I've heard today said fatality rate is around 1%. Its a lot better than 3.5% but is still extremely high. It was reported tonight there was a group of Americans that went to Italy on a skiing trip. All 18 got sick. 4 were intensive care. One got out today. I would want to hope things will get better as it gets warmer but I'm not confident considering the number of places impacted with a warm climate (take Tom Hanks and his wife for example who are currently in Australia where its summer)

Thank goodness our forum is a safe zone for public interaction

 

[EcK]

Tom Hanks. Here's hoping he's one of the lucky 8 out of 10 (because if he isn't 70, he's close to it).

Which makes it possible that this thing is less lethal than we think. I mean there s under 150 official cases in Australia but somehow Tom hanks and his wife get it? Perhaps they are two of a vast majority of very mild cases that regular people would not get tested for. Also remember that most hospitals etc. Have limited number or test kits and are not going to waste it on random people coming in claiming to be feeling a little tired.. unless you re a politician or some movie star. But that would be good news as if it’s more contagious than initially assumed and less deadly then immunity will build faster in the population.. very contagious diseases (with an r0 above 3) don’t last usually as they just « burn out » due to too many people having immunity for the same strain(s) at the same time in the population. That’s why the most successful flu strains have R0 values of around 1.5, it s a good balance of contagion without too much immunity buildup.

Now of course movie stars will be around lots of people, in airplanes which are perfect to spread viruses and in strange sex cults with lots of fluid exchanges. So could be that too.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Which makes it possible that this thing is less lethal than we think.

Well, developing vs. developed country with accessible healthcare and ability to ban events should make a difference

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I’ve been feeling more tired than normal. A little fatigued. But then hard to say if it’s just my body adjusting to daylight savings. It usually takes me a few weeks to “reset” after the clicks jump forward

 

[EcK]

Well, developing vs. developed country with accessible healthcare and ability to ban events should make a difference

Not a Big difference in terms of avoiding the epidemic as the r0 seems quite high. But yes the key here is to slow it down as the main danger is the overwhelming of healthcare and supply chains.

 

[EcK]

In the UK there s 300 cases but somehow the health minister caught it at an event.. either someone is infecting key figures on purpose or the actual number of cases is much much much higher than the official numbers.

 

[Red Herring]

In the UK there s 300 cases but somehow the health minister caught it at an event.. either someone is infecting key figures on purpose or the actual number of cases is much much much higher than the official numbers.

That's close to the number of cases here in Baden-Württemberg which has only one sixth of the population of the UK.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I think it’s likely just a lot more widespread than people think. There’s probably a lot of people functioning as unknowing carriers. Most people showing no symptoms or mild symptoms will not get tested, whereas a high number of high ranking gov't officials and wealthy people will probably get tests done. If it's already as widespread as I suspect, then the rates will appear higher in the groups with a higher frequency of testing.

 

[EcK]

That's close to the number of cases here in Baden-Württemberg which has only one sixth of the population of the UK.

Well - official cases - real numbers must be much higher in most countries. The only people I kinda trust are South Korea and Japan. China’s numbers are utter bullshit, and most other countries will claim low numbers but all have these crazy flukes like Tom Hanks and his wife getting sick in a country with 400 cases, the uk health minister catching it when there s 300 cases in the uk etc.

Way too many statistical outliers for the official numbers to be even close to right.

 

[Tennessee Jed]

Well - official cases - real numbers must be much higher in most countries. The only people I kinda trust are South Korea and Japan. China’s numbers are utter bullshit, and most other countries will claim low numbers but all have these crazy flukes like Tom Hanks and his wife getting sick in a country with 400 cases, the uk health minister catching it when there s 300 cases in the uk etc.

Way too many statistical outliers for the official numbers to be even close to right.

I'm thinking airplanes. Politicians, high-level bureaucrats, and celebrities practically spend their lives jetting around the world on airplanes, and airplanes are enclosed spaces with recirculated air. A similar example: When retirement homes get an outbreak of Legionnaires' Disease, the source is almost always found to be in the ventilation system and recirculation of air. Cruise ships occasionally have similar problems with outbreaks of illness: Lots of passengers crowded together breathing the same recirculated air-conditioned air.

Anyway, in my opinion the use of aircraft and long flights to far-off destinations would be an easy explanation for why high-level officials and celebs seem to be catching the bug so much. Even if it's a private jet, you're breathing the same air as the crew and help, who may have picked it up in their own travels. Frankly, I myself wouldn't be doing any long intercontinental flights right about now.

If planes are the cause, then it's kind of a "tax on rich people." Politicians are going to have to start campaigning from home, via cameras and satellite links. No more jetting around the country and then shaking hands and kissing babies. (At least until aircraft redesign their air systems to include more fresh air exchange and/or sanitation filters.)

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I'm thinking airplanes. Politicians, high-level bureaucrats, and celebrities practically spend their lives jetting around the world on airplanes, and airplanes are enclosed spaces with recirculated air. A similar example: When retirement homes get an outbreak of Legionaire's Disease, the source is almost always found to be in the ventilation system and recirculation of air. Cruise ships occasionally have similar problems with outbreaks of illness: Lots of passengers crowded together breathing the same recirculated air-conditioned air.

Anyway, in my opinion the use of aircraft and long flights to far-off destinations would be an easy explanation for why high-level officials and celebs seem to be catching the bug so much. Even if it's a private jet, you're breathing the same air as the crew and help, who may have picked it up in their own travels. Frankly, I myself wouldn't be doing any long intercontinental flights right about now.

If planes are the cause, then it's kind of a "tax on rich people." Politicians are going to have to start campaigning from home, via cameras and satellite links. No more jetting around the country and then shaking hands and kissing babies. (At least until aircraft redesign their air systems to include more fresh air exchange.)

I'm not sure what the ventilation systems are like on modern trains, but they may have to go old school and limit their campaigning to bus and/or train tours. Given the age of the President and the 2 leading democratic candidates in the US, this could be really bad for all three of them and lead to an unprecedented situation this election. We could very well end up with none of these 3 running for election by November. Not trying to be morbid, just looking at it realistically. For all we know, we'll be voting on Pence vs Buttigieg this November.

In the least, it could mean a very low key campaign for both trump and the eventual dem nominee, though maybe that's a blessing in disguise.

 

[Tennessee Jed]

I'm not sure what the ventilation systems are like on modern trains, but they may have to go old school and limit their campaigning to bus and/or train tours. Given the age of the President and the 2 leading democratic candidates in the US, this could be really bad for all three of them and lead to an unprecedented situation this election. We could very well end up with none of these 3 running for election by November. Not trying to be morbid, just looking at it realistically. In the least, it could mean a very low key campaign for both trump and the eventual dem nominee, though maybe that's a blessing in disguise.

Yes, it's going to put older candidates at a disadvantage, if not actually result in illnesses among them. But the situation in general is probably going to mean the end of political rallies, at least for the short-term. The trend is away from big, crowded gatherings. And I bet these older candidates are already feeling the paranoia. They know they're in a high-risk position. (Trump has said in the past that he himself is a germaphobe.)