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Coronavirus

Jaguar

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While everyone is in a panic about the coronavirus, there's an even deadlier virus many people are forgetting about: the flu.

Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season, with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.

This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year, According to the CDC | Health.com
 

Lexicon

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I get my flu shot every year. Unless you have an allergy to it or something, there's no reason not to get it. Some vulnerable people rely on herd immunity. Do your part.
 

21%

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Is my math correct that it's about 1.2% hospitalization rate and 0.03% death for influenza?

What's the plan to prevent 31 million Americans from getting this new coronavirus that has 10-15% hospitalization rate and 0.7% death (optimistic numbers)?

Not being sarcastic. I just wonder why people are still saying 'the flu is deadlier'? Do people think this can be effectively contained?
 

Tennessee Jed

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Don’t gyms usually have dispensers of disinfecting wipes around anyway for before/after contacting the equipment? My physical therapy place is like that.

Eh, commercial gyms aren't as picky about hygiene as physical therapy facilities. The big commercial gyms that I use just have a couple central spots on the workout floor where you can pick up a paper towel and a spray bottle with disinfectant. But utilization of those items by most gym patrons is kind of hit-and-miss.

On cardio days (treadmill, elliptical, and stairmaster), I just use one or two cardio machines. I can give them a swipe on the handlebars before and after. But if it's a weight day, then I'm using lots of different weight machines in succession. That's more problematic. Unless you leave a pool of sweat on the benches or seats, most people (including me) don't give the weight machines more than just a cursory swipe with a paper towel or a sweat towel after using them. If that much. It would take too long to give each machine a top-to-bottom cleaning.

I view the weight machines as similar to being on public transportation: You're going to be sitting on seats and touching surfaces that the general public has been using, and there's just not much to be done about it short of wearing a hazmat suit. But I'm healthy overall (as are most other folks at a gym), and in a way it's good to expose myself in small doses to whatever the public is passing around. It keeps up my natural immunities over the long-term. So I just go with the flow, and the hell with the consequences.

In general I wash my hands first thing whenever I come in the door at home after any errand or outing, get my flu shots, and all that. I haven't had a flu or cold in a decade, so I figure my immune system and hygiene must be pretty good.

If I feel excessivly worn-out or like I might be catching something, I just stay home for a day or two to give myself a break from the gym and maybe tank up on some extra protein and carbs. The break from working out and the food give my body extra reserves to fight off whatever I'm getting, and by the next day I'm feeling whole again and ready to hit the gym for a big workout.

As for older, sicker people, medical authorities are recommending that they may want to self-isolate somewhat during flu season (something you referenced in your spoiler). So if I were older and sicker, I might set up a workout room at home for use during the flu season with a rowing machine or stationary bike and some weights. I've had that kind of "home gym" arrangement in the past, and it's workable. Just turn on the TV or blast the stereo, and crank out lots of reps. But as long as I'm generally healthy, I definitely prefer the size and variety and sociability of large commercial gyms for workouts.
 

Tennessee Jed

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Yeah I smoked for 23 years and I’ve had a heart attack and I’ve most likely developed asthma. I’m 47 and definitely a bit concerned. Still, it’s impossible to be isolated, even as a very introverted guy. I just assume I’ll contract it and hope my immune system is up to the task.

I've mentioned to you in a previous post that my past smoking left some long-term damage in my lungs. Even after 15 years of non-smoking, my lungs still get wheezy and irritated if left to their own devices. So doing lots of cardio at the gym helps keep them clear and functioning well. Also, it helps to keep the humidity up at home in the cold months. And during allergy season I find that it helps to steam my lungs for 10 minutes every day: Boil water in a big tea kettle and roll up a file folder like a big megaphone to hold over the tea kettle and breathe the steam. That's also helped to get me through bad colds or flus when I used to get those things.

Meantime, lung problems are just the tip of the iceberg. Bad stomach, bad prostate, etc. Thank god for modern medicine.

It takes some work to stay more-or-less healthy in old age, especially after a lifetime of abuse and excess. Hence, spending a lot of time at the gym. But oh well, it is what it is. I'm actually quite surprised that I'm in as good shape as I'm in. The way I was living in my younger years, I kind of feel like I should have died in some fiery wreck or other random catastrophe 20 years ago. If I'm still alive and kicking at this point in time, it's icing on the cake. :thumbup:
 

Red Herring

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Is my math correct that it's about 1.2% hospitalization rate and 0.03% death for influenza?

What's the plan to prevent 31 million Americans from getting this new coronavirus that has 10-15% hospitalization rate and 0.7% death (optimistic numbers)?

Not being sarcastic. I just wonder why people are still saying 'the flu is deadlier'? Do people think this can be effectively contained?

I think it's about relative vs absolute numbers (and current actual vs potential damage). So far the seasonal flu causes way more deaths in absolute numbers and its infection rate and letality seem to be at least in the same ball park even though Covid-19 is a bit worse. However, Covid-19 is just getting started and it's still unclear how it will develop.

I had to keep both my kids at home today because of the suspected cases of Corona at kindergarden. Waiting for the (hopefully negative) test results to come in. We are playing it safe because my SO is a teacher and thus a potential multiplier if he carries it over to his school. Also, my father-in-law has weak lungs and his neighbors just returned from a high risk area in Italy. I know the danger is low, but the risk of transmission is real... and we all have a responsibility towards society at large even if we ourselves have a good immune system.
 

EcK

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by the way the whole mask thing is not that useful. To prevent infection if given only one item gloves are best to avoid catching it and masks are most useful to avoid spreading it.
The exception of course are people who are constantly near coughing sick people like doctors - you basically don't want people coughing in your face, but otherwise you'll probably catch it by touching something a sick person coughed on or touched after coughing into their hands.

That's my understanding anyway. However funnily enough while it's impossible to find masks the shelves are still full of disposable gloves in supermarkets over here at least. Hand wash liquids are also hard to find, but just next to it the shelves are full of soap. Also, people seem to forget that east Asians just love wearing face masks in general - it doesn't mean it's the best preventive measure for everyone.
 

21%

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I think it's about relative vs absolute numbers (and current actual vs potential damage). So far the seasonal flu causes way more deaths in absolute numbers and its infection rate and letality seem to be at least in the same ball park even though Covid-19 is a bit worse. However, Covid-19 is just getting started and it's still unclear how it will develop.

I had to keep both my kids at home today because of the suspected cases of Corona at kindergarden. Waiting for the (hopefully negative) test results to come in. We are playing it safe because my SO is a teacher and thus a potential multiplier if he carries it over to his school. Also, my father-in-law has weak lungs and his neighbors just returned from a high risk area in Italy. I know the danger is low, but the risk of transmission is real... and we all have a responsibility towards society at large even if we ourselves have a good immune system.
I hope it's negative! Stay safe!
 

Red Memories

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I think it's about relative vs absolute numbers (and current actual vs potential damage). So far the seasonal flu causes way more deaths in absolute numbers and its infection rate and letality seem to be at least in the same ball park even though Covid-19 is a bit worse. However, Covid-19 is just getting started and it's still unclear how it will develop.

I had to keep both my kids at home today because of the suspected cases of Corona at kindergarden. Waiting for the (hopefully negative) test results to come in. We are playing it safe because my SO is a teacher and thus a potential multiplier if he carries it over to his school. Also, my father-in-law has weak lungs and his neighbors just returned from a high risk area in Italy. I know the danger is low, but the risk of transmission is real... and we all have a responsibility towards society at large even if we ourselves have a good immune system.

Thank you for saying this. I'm so disgusted with the humans crying about things getting cancelled because "its only killing already ill or old people anyway" as if that somehow makes it okay to be irresponsible and idiotic and bring it to the rest of a community. Have empathy and consideration for others selfish twats. Sorry too many irritating people angering me about having so little care about the situation.
 

Jaguar

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Thank you for saying this. I'm so disgusted with the humans crying about things getting cancelled because "its only killing already ill or old people anyway" as if that somehow makes it okay to be irresponsible and idiotic and bring it to the rest of a community. Have empathy and consideration for others selfish twats. Sorry too many irritating people angering me about having so little care about the situation.

Last year I went to a lab to have some tests done and this woman who was pulling my blood mentioned she had pneumonia. I said, "You shouldn't even be here." She responded, "Oh, I'm feeling better. Thanks." That's when I got pissed off and said "Not you, us. Do you not realize how many of us come in here all day long and can pick up your illness?" "Well, I can't take off work" she said. I told her other people can't 'take off' the rest of their lives because of her. People with chronic illnesses have no business being around anyone with pneumonia.
 

21%

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This virus luckily exposed a gaping hole in my education: I had no clue about public health and no real awareness of how important my part in it actually is (until, like, last week). I suspect most people are the same. Most people go to work when they're unwell because they think it's their highest responsibility to do their job, but maybe it needs to be made clear that public health is an even higher responsibility.
 

Z Buck McFate

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If we look at almost every country where there's sustained community transmission, cases seem to grow exponentially 'out of nowhere' (doubling every 3 days!). But these didn't come 'out of nowhere'. The virus had been circulating in the community for the past two or three weeks, and the symptoms just started showing. Proactively cancelling mass events *in the past two or three weeks* would have slowed down the spread. By the time we see exponential growth like that, it's likely the health system is going to be overwhelmed.

This really is key, as I understand it.

How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart.


4f111e891219f9389546550db2672bfd.png
 

Red Memories

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This virus luckily exposed a gaping hole in my education: I had no clue about public health and no real awareness of how important my part in it actually is (until, like, last week). I suspect most people are the same. Most people go to work when they're unwell because they think it's their highest responsibility to do their job, but maybe it needs to be made clear that public health is an even higher responsibility.

Yeah in America you're practically punished for taking a sick day half the time, so you feel it is your duty to ward off sickness and keep acting like you're fine until its bad enough you can't...It is definitely a learning curve.
 

Virtual ghost

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Yeah in America you're practically punished for taking a sick day half the time, so you feel it is your duty to ward off sickness and keep acting like you're fine until its bad enough you can't...It is definitely a learning curve.


I am just curious foreigner: how exactly do you get punished over this ?
 

cascadeco

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I am just curious foreigner: how exactly do you get punished over this ?

There's usually some level of guilt no matter what the job, since you know other people will then be overworked, will have to pick up the slack, etc. Being absent means everyone else tends to get more stressed.

In many wage jobs - since I work at a coffee shop that's what I can directly speak to - the customers don't want the *results*/ consequences of employees of said shop to not come in due to sickness, because their wait times will be that much longer, things won't be smooth, efficient, and quick due to only four people, say, working the floor vs the necessary five or six. Of course the customers would be horrified knowing anyone wasn't totally 100% feeling great, and would probably say anyone who is sick shouldn't be there, but they don't want the customer experience of the effect of that. Tons of strain occurs on the employees in this setting when someone calls out sick. I agree though that contagious people shouldn't be at work and we don't want them there. Just also stating that the reality is that things suck ass for almost everyone else who is there when it happens.

Another simple example : If I were to wake up in the middle of tonight with a fever, the coffee shop wouldn't open on time, for sure, and it might not open at all until two hours late at the earliest, since I am the one with the keys and the manager opening, and any alternate wouldn't be awake at 3:30am to take the call to then show up in time to open in my stead. And if no one from my store could cover, it would take even longer to potentially open and find a replacement if other people in the district had to be found to cover. It's not something I'd be fired for or anything, but when sick you still have to find coverage and if you have a 102 fever you'd be stressing about that whilst being sick. In the meantime the store is closed and that's not 'ok' from a customer perspective.
 

Red Memories

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I am just curious foreigner: how exactly do you get punished over this ?

Where I had worked (Walmart) if you had to take 2 weeks off due to an unscheduled quarantine you'd be fired. If you called in more than 4 times in any given 6 month period you would be fired. If you did not have the allotted time, you would also get no pay whatsoever. Taking a leave of absence gave you no pay. I got hurt on the job and called in one day to get a second opinion, and their workman's comp person told me I can't just call in because my leg hurts. I'm on restrictions and all.

Some places don't send you home if they notice you're sick. Some people see calling in sick as the difference in survival and being homeless. Most small places do not have paid sick days. So our punishment is no pay, and possibly losing our jobs. So you come to work sick. I remember some girl puking every couple hours and she stayed at work the whole day.
 

???

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[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]
I can answer that.

I worked for a big defense contractor at one point, hell I might as well call them out, since this is anonymous - Northrop Grumman. They would take the fastest time anyone built their product on, cut that time by 30% and make that the standard for an employee to build on; and if you didn't hit that time, you were "below average" on build time. It even came to a point where if you called in sick, it was "unexcused" and was counted against your employee record for raises because you didn't plan being sick in advance (yeah, that probably makes as much sense to you as it does anyone else). Now this place had no HR, except a regional representative that would stop by maybe every 6 months, jot down grievances, act concerned, and then leave and nothing would change. She was even told about the sick policy and 6 months passed and raises came up, it was used against people, and it was never even acknowledged by management. Suffice to say I quit that job and to this day I have no idea how that company can get away with that, especially when they are supposed to be this big government contractor and supposedly have all this government oversight.

Honestly, I'm really not making this up or embellishing.
 

highlander

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Is my math correct that it's about 1.2% hospitalization rate and 0.03% death for influenza?

What's the plan to prevent 31 million Americans from getting this new coronavirus that has 10-15% hospitalization rate and 0.7% death (optimistic numbers)?

Not being sarcastic. I just wonder why people are still saying 'the flu is deadlier'? Do people think this can be effectively contained?

This in my mind is the issue. I've heard death rates that average more around 2 - 3.5% but the numbers are much higher for those in high risk populations. It will quickly overwhelm the health system in the US due to the number of serious cases and risk of death. Making matters worse in the US, we appear to have had a shortage of testing kits. As of last night, only 3000 people had been tested in the entire US, so the reported US numbers are fiction. The actual number of people who have this in the US is likely 5 - 10x the reported numbers.

I have heard the flu is really bad this year and it especially is hitting children. It's got a much lower likelihood of hospitalization and death rate though.

I've seem some statistics that between 40 and 70% of the population could catch this coronavirus thing because of how easily it is transmitted and that people who aren't showing symptoms can transmit it. There is a reason Italy and China have instituted such draconian measures. I do consulting and I'm seeing many of my clients instituting travel bans and imposing restrictions on who is allowed to come on site.

From a financial standpoint, it screws up the consumption and supply chain side of the equation. People aren't going to buy as much because they are sitting at home. Companies aren't going to spend as much money because they are concerned about lower revenue and profits. Sales cycles elongate due to the uncertainty. Products can't be manufactured because they can't get ingredients, parts, etc. from China and other places. From the US perspective, it slows down the an entire economy that has been overdue for a recession kept on life support by government deficit spending by Trump.

I guess the best thing to hope for is that it will burn itself out when the warm weather hits. I'm a little skeptical though due to the cruise ships that have been impacted traveling to places like Japan and Mexico where the weather is warm right now.
 

á´…eparted

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In the meantime the store is closed and that's not 'ok' from a customer perspective.

The only way this is going to change is when companies start to go "you customers are being spoiled children and need to learn that we're human and don't cater to your petty needs", and just makes people *deal* with the occasional inconvience. I actively want them to do this. I'd be extremely happy to deal with it. I mean, I already do when I come across it. I don't see any other way to get people to value the human condition and re-humanize the worker from the prospective of the customer except by forcing it and making socieity as a whole learn to deal. You'll survive if you have to drive an extra few miles to get your morning Latte. If you can't, the problem is *you* and *you* need to sort out your priorities.
 

cascadeco

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The only way this is going to change is when companies start to go "you customers are being spoiled children and need to learn that we're human and don't cater to your petty needs", and just makes people *deal* with the occasional inconvience. I actively want them to do this. I'd be extremely happy to deal with it. I mean, I already do when I come across it. I don't see any other way to get people to value the human condition and re-humanize the worker from the prospective of the customer except by forcing it and making socieity as a whole learn to deal. You'll survive if you have to drive an extra few miles to get your morning Latte. If you can't, the problem is *you* and *you* need to sort out your priorities.

Can't disagree with you there.:)
 
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