Coronavirus

[Doctor Cringelord]

If it kills me, it kills me. Something will kill me eventually.

 

[21%]

I hear you on mass events, but by the same token, why wouldn't we tell people to not go anywhere? Don't go to the mall, don't go to Walgreens, don't go to Starbucks...I mean, hundreds of people go into these establishments daily. Similarly, why not cancel all big events going into the future and don't let anyone go on cruise ships every year during flu season? (it's kind of an unspoken 'given' that if you go on a cruise ship or bus tour through Europe, you're likely to come down with something).

I was also telling my coworker a few days ago that if I were to go to urgent care or stayed home every single time I woke up sniffly, had drainage, had a headache, a bit of a cough, or was blowing my nose, or felt like maybe I was getting a cold, I'd be going there twice a week. (I think allergies are usually the culprit)

I understand it's a new virus, thus there is concern; I also understand if we are legitimately sick (ie fever, really hacking stuff up), of course we should not be out and about. That should always be the case. I guess I have trouble wrapping my head around cancellation of things. I have trouble viewing it as anything different from the flu that many people get sick from every year, and we don't cancel things, have travel fears, etc, during that (or if we do, we just accept it as a known risk/chance of catching something). I am totally open to notching up my level of worry or changing my opinion, though, if I'm not aware of key info. [on a personal level I worry very much for my father/people like him with complicated health situations and compromised immune systems, but the same applies to him for the flu, common cold, etc.]

OMG I can't believe my super long post got eaten! Here I go again:

I'm no expert, but I've been spending the past week educating myself on the matter. Do correct me if I'm wrong about something.

This virus spreads through 'close contact', which is defined roughly as 'face-to-face interaction for more than 10 minutes or being within 2 meters (6 feet) of each other for more than 10 minutes', so in everyday transactions (like going to Starbucks), the chance is quite low. Actually, by going to the mall, the chance is also quite low, as long as there isn't anyone leaving the virus on the door handlebar and if you're not touching it and then touching your face.

Why mass events are a nightmare is because one sick person is going to be in 'close contact' with lots of people during the course of the event, potentially spreading it to multiple groups of people (especially if they're moving around), and because this is a new virus, no one has immunity, so there's a higher chance the virus can be passed on. (Plus, public bathrooms where hundreds of people touch the same doors, etc!) With seasonal flu, there's something called 'herd immunity' (something I recently learned and am grateful it exists for us) since the virus has been in our species for a long time -- some people are immune, and flu shots help an extra bit, so among 4-5 people who are 'around' the sick person at a large event at any given time, maybe two or three of them are 'immune' in this way, and the 'infection chain' is stopped there.

What's concerning about this is it's pretty contagious, and has quite a high death and hospitalization rate. If 10 people in a crowd of 20,000 infect 10 people each, the week after, you'll have 100 cases -- all of whom can go on to infect other people. If you have 1000 infected people (like many countries in Europe now do -- and they each had, like, 20 last week), 850 of those are going to be okay without medical care, 150 will require hospitalization, and of those 150, 50 people are going to have organ failure and will need life support. Last time I counted, I think the ICU unit in my nearest hospital has 10 ICU beds. So what the community should be trying to do is to make sure that those 50 people will NOT get sick at the same time, as it will mean death for at least 40 of them who come in later and cannot find beds. (And the ICU recovery rate is around 50%, and even if you recover, you're going to have scarring in your lungs). So, 5 deaths vs 45 deaths. It's likely we can't contain it now, and it will 'move through the population', but by cancelling events where mass infections can happen at the same time, we actually save a lot of lives.

In Iran it's spiraling out of control, with 7000+ cases and counting (and they had 40 confirmed cases last week!), and.. 7 of their high-ranking officials have died from it already. You don't see that kind of death from seasonal flu. This pneumonia that kills you is also caused by the virus itself, not a complication with bacteria like the flu, so it means antibiotics won't work, and doctors can just help keep you stay alive until your body fights it off (long recovery time for critically ill patients).

If we look at almost every country where there's sustained community transmission, cases seem to grow exponentially 'out of nowhere' (doubling every 3 days!). But these didn't come 'out of nowhere'. The virus had been circulating in the community for the past two or three weeks, and the symptoms just started showing. Proactively cancelling mass events *in the past two or three weeks* would have slowed down the spread. By the time we see exponential growth like that, it's likely the health system is going to be overwhelmed.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

I've only allowed meetings with people from other companies when absolutely critical. And we've also cancelled most international trips until further notice.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I've only allowed meetings with people from other companies when absolutely critical. And we've also cancelled most international trips until further notice.

Similar.

It isn't the end of the world but this will be the pain the ass on many ways.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

Gradually humans will build immunity and this will be just one more thing floating around that we'll have to deal with every year.

 

[Tennessee Jed]

I've only allowed meetings with people from other companies when absolutely critical. And we've also cancelled most international trips until further notice.

Yeah, I was going to say: Cancellations are occurring. It's just that the decision is being left up to local authorities rather than Congress trying to come up with a single rule for cancellations nation-wide. Here's an article about latest cancellations of national-level events:

Title: "South by Southwest becomes latest coronavirus cancellation. Here's the full list."
Link: Coronavirus update: SXSW added to this list of COVID-19 cancellations

Also, sick elderly people aren't usually big on going to rock concerts and basketball games.

 

[cascadeco]

OMG I can't believe my super long post got eaten! Here I go again:

I'm no expert, but I've been spending the past week educating myself on the matter. Do correct me if I'm wrong about something.

This virus spreads through 'close contact', which is defined roughly as 'face-to-face interaction for more than 10 minutes or being within 2 meters (6 feet) of each other for more than 10 minutes', so in everyday transactions (like going to Starbucks), the chance is quite low. Actually, by going to the mall, the chance is also quite low, as long as there isn't anyone leaving the virus on the door handlebar and if you're not touching it and then touching your face.

Why mass events are a nightmare is because one sick person is going to be in 'close contact' with lots of people during the course of the event, potentially spreading it to multiple groups of people (especially if they're moving around), and because this is a new virus, no one has immunity, so there's a higher chance the virus can be passed on. (Plus, public bathrooms where hundreds of people touch the same doors, etc!) With seasonal flu, there's something called 'herd immunity' (something I recently learned and am grateful it exists for us) since the virus has been in our species for a long time -- some people are immune, and flu shots help an extra bit, so among 4-5 people who are 'around' the sick person at a large event at any given time, maybe two or three of them are 'immune' in this way, and the 'infection chain' is stopped there.

What's concerning about this is it's pretty contagious, and has quite a high death and hospitalization rate. If 10 people in a crowd of 20,000 infect 10 people each, the week after, you'll have 100 cases -- all of whom can go on to infect other people. If you have 1000 infected people (like many countries in Europe now do -- and they each had, like, 20 last week), 850 of those are going to be okay without medical care, 150 will require hospitalization, and of those 150, 50 people are going to have organ failure and will need life support. Last time I counted, I think the ICU unit in my nearest hospital has 10 ICU beds. So what the community should be trying to do is to make sure that those 50 people will NOT get sick at the same time, as it will mean death for at least 40 of them who come in later and cannot find beds. (And the ICU recovery rate is around 50%, and even if you recover, you're going to have scarring in your lungs). So, 5 deaths vs 45 deaths. It's likely we can't contain it now, and it will 'move through the population', but by cancelling events where mass infections can happen at the same time, we actually save a lot of lives.

In Iran it's spiraling out of control, with 7000+ cases and counting (and they had 40 confirmed cases last week!), and.. 7 of their high-ranking officials have died from it already. You don't see that kind of death from seasonal flu. This pneumonia that kills you is also caused by the virus itself, not a complication with bacteria like the flu, so it means antibiotics won't work, and doctors can just help keep you stay alive until your body fights it off (long recovery time for critically ill patients).

If we look at almost every country where there's sustained community transmission, cases seem to grow exponentially 'out of nowhere' (doubling every 3 days!). But these didn't come 'out of nowhere'. The virus had been circulating in the community for the past two or three weeks, and the symptoms just started showing. Proactively cancelling mass events *in the past two or three weeks* would have slowed down the spread. By the time we see exponential growth like that, it's likely the health system is going to be overwhelmed.

Thanks for all of the info.

Perhaps I've personally accepted it as a given that I'll get it, given where I work and that I use public restrooms multiple times every single day I work. I'm great at never touching my face though, and for years and years I've never directly touched public door handles. (yes, I'm *that* person).

 

[21%]

Thanks for all of the info.

Perhaps I've personally accepted it as a given that I'll get it, given where I work and that I use public restrooms multiple times every single day I work. I'm great at never touching my face though, and for years and years I've never directly touched public door handles. (yes, I'm *that* person).

I'm still failing miserably at not touching my face. I've told myself that I'll only touch it with the back of my hands, so that will have to do for now >_>

 

[21%]

I've only allowed meetings with people from other companies when absolutely critical. And we've also cancelled most international trips until further notice.

Yeah, this is socially responsible. And if everyone does this, we won't have to eventually resort to drastic mass quarantine.

 

[Totenkindly]

I'm aware of one large annual March seminar now being canceled, that I have been involved with in the past.

But our agency still went ahead with reducing telework to one day a week this month and refusing to consider requests for episodic telework unless authorized higher up in the chain. Last week we got the boilerplate statement and general precautions but nothing showed signs of change.

This week, there were more instructions on how to wash hands properly, and we were also told to stay home if we had a fever. (No comments about how much sick or annual people have, you are still expected to soak it from your pool.) I'm not sure I feel like eating the cafeteria food downstairs, though, and I will continue to call into my meetings unless absolutely necessary.

The most interesting bit was getting a notice today that in-house training exercises had their room room canceled, and everyone needed to remote in to the training via Skype. So someone is starting to take things seriously.

The problem here is mainly all the doors and the bathrooms, we touch a lot of metal surfaces during the day because all the employee areas have heavy metal doors that can be manually pulled open or opened by mechanized push squares (although they only work about 70% of the time, sometimes late in the day they stop opening). But you basically have to touch those surfaces multiple times a day -- and everyone has to do it because otherwise you can't get into parts of the building you are stationed in and the doors are shut unless opened. So to me that is a probable infection point.

I'm still failing miserably at not touching my face. I've told myself that I'll only touch it with the back of my hands, so that will have to do for now >_>

I did not realize how often I touched my face until I started paying attention to it this past weekend...

 

[Red Herring]

They have a suspected case of Covid-19 in both our firstborn's kindergarden and the wee one's daycare. Right now our little town has only five confirmed cases and 65 people quarantined. Let's hope it's a false alarm at the kindergarden and daycare!

 

[Tennessee Jed]

I'm at big public gyms every day. I don't imagine for a second that the hygiene is great at public gyms. Meantime there was a small coronavirus outbreak at a housing complex a few miles away; and I live a couple blocks from the hospital.

It's one of those trade-off things. I figure the health benefit I get from the gym habit balances out the possible hygiene danger. I'm 63 and I was a heavy smoker for 30 years (quit 15 years ago). Even before the coronavirus came along I felt like a couple different longstanding health issues require me to work hard on staying active and in good shape. So I'm continuing to hit the gyms and I'm just concentrating on being real good about washing my hands, staying well-rested up and healthy, etc.

But I understand people's trepidation about the illness. To have to make strategic calculations about whether to go to the gym or not is pretty weird.

 

[21%]

What the world will learn from this: automatic doors and automatic faucets and soap dispensers!

 

[Totenkindly]

We have automatic flush and automatic sinks but pump soap in the bathrooms.

I spent my 20 seconds washing my hands in the bathroom, and the woman next to me did at least 15... so all looked well and good... and then instead of using the paper towels (where you can get towels without touching the machine) she used the XLERATOR blower to dry her hands, spreading any remaining germs all over the bathroom.

Whee.

Anyway, the problem with the connected global world is that people are all going to catch these things; but like others have said, slowing down the transmission rate enables us to spread our resources out better to handle the load of the people who become very ill, and also allows more time to find a cure / treatment. You're just buying time and trying to reduce acute impact on our medical resources. I'm not much for extremes in either direction, just take what precautions to reasonably reduce spread but don't expect it to work effectively because you won't be able to lock it down completely. Of course, the other issue is we are talking people, not just numbers.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

I'm also following Howie Mandel's lead and replacing handshakes with fist bumps. Never much cared for handshakes anyway.

 

[Population: 1]

I'm at big public gyms every day. I don't imagine for a second that the hygiene is great at public gyms. Meantime there was a small coronavirus outbreak at a housing complex a few miles away; and I live a couple blocks from the hospital.

It's one of those trade-off things. I figure the health benefit I get from the gym habit balances out the possible hygiene danger. I'm 63 and I was a heavy smoker for 30 years (quit 15 years ago). Even before the coronavirus came along I felt like a couple different longstanding health issues require me to work hard on staying active and in good shape. So I'm continuing to hit the gyms and I'm just concentrating on being real good about washing my hands, staying well-rested up and healthy, etc.

But I understand people's trepidation about the illness. To have to make strategic calculations about whether to go to the gym or not is pretty weird.

Yeah I smoked for 23 years and I’ve had a heart attack and I’ve most likely developed asthma. I’m 47 and definitely a bit concerned. Still, it’s impossible to be isolated, even as a very introverted guy. I just assume I’ll contract it and hope my immune system is up to the task.

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

War of the Worlds was the best thing Tom Cruise ever did. During times like these, I reflect on the movie and think, "Isn't it great that we have all these germs? If aliens decided to sprout up out of the ground and eat us, they wouldn't be able to tolerate our germs. They would all die and it would serve them right." Then I laugh. But just in case, that's nice.

 

[Virtual ghost]

War of the Worlds was the best thing Tom Cruise ever did. During times like these, I reflect on the movie and think, "Isn't it great that we have all these germs? If aliens decided to sprout up out of the ground and eat us, they wouldn't be able to tolerate our germs. They would all die and it would serve them right." Then I laugh. But just in case, that's nice.

Such movies are basically "strategically unrealistic". The aliens that can travel the galaxy would be far superior to us and if they want to take us out they would just remain in orbit and start massive orbital bombardment of the Earth's surface. Possibly with something stronger than we have ever made. O they can just park above the planet and throw down some of their own viruses.


But that is the movie that wouldn't sell that well.

 

[Grand Admiral Crunch]

Such movies are basically "strategically unrealistic". The aliens that can travel the galaxy would be far superior to us and if they want to take us out they would just remain in orbit and start massive orbital bombardment of the Earth's surface. Possibly with something stronger than we have ever made. O they can just park above the planet and throw down some of their own viruses.


But that is the movie that wouldn't sell that well.

The INTJ is here to steal my joy! Lol. But still I laugh! Good effort! Keep doing that! I like it!

 

[Lexicon]

I'm at big public gyms every day. I don't imagine for a second that the hygiene is great at public gyms. Meantime there was a small coronavirus outbreak at a housing complex a few miles away; and I live a couple blocks from the hospital.

It's one of those trade-off things. I figure the health benefit I get from the gym habit balances out the possible hygiene danger. I'm 63 and I was a heavy smoker for 30 years (quit 15 years ago). Even before the coronavirus came along I felt like a couple different longstanding health issues require me to work hard on staying active and in good shape. So I'm continuing to hit the gyms and I'm just concentrating on being real good about washing my hands, staying well-rested up and healthy, etc.

But I understand people's trepidation about the illness. To have to make strategic calculations about whether to go to the gym or not is pretty weird.

Don’t gyms usually have dispensers of disinfecting wipes around anyway for before/after contacting the equipment? My physical therapy place is like that.

If anything, all the panic has shown me is just how little people were consciously or consistently practicing safe hygiene during cold/flu season by default.

Don’t be gross. And stay home if sick. That simple.

I’m in the immunosuppressed risk category, & still I’m just more annoyed by everyone around me than this damn virus. By far.


Also, this belongs here: