Coronavirus

[Vendrah]

I was just "thinking around" about [MENTION=14857]Powehi[/MENTION] shared news article (it is quoted on the post above for those who didn't read it) and I actually have thought that this could be a huge game changer (originally it would be a post edit but decided to do a new one). The number of 12.3% of deaths from people who are hospitalized comes from people who were, obviously, hospitalized - people who caught COVID but could deal it at home should be way less likely to have a "post-death" or return to the hospital with complications.

I did heard recently one story of a guy, a known person from a family member friend, who went hospitalized by COVID, got better on Friday, the doctor wait until Sunday to see if the recover was full and dismissed the patient, and then days later the person suddenly passed away (breathing problems), so suddenly that when they took the person to the hospital, it was already too late.

So if this is right (it will have revisions and further studies but this is long term and that shall take months and months), this has the potential to more than double, maybe triply the COVID death rate. However, these other deaths have potential to be way more silent and are going to be more present this year and in the next one.
I was also thinking how this change the death-rate. It did established as general 1-2%, right? I was thinking about two things...First, what is the average age for these numbers? I guess it would be something like 50 and something years old, probably. So, what is the chance of someone without COVID and at 50 and something years old to die inside the 5 months? This number should be considered as well so we can compare, so, for example, if 3.4% of them dies randomly, then we could attribute 9% of actual COVID generated deaths, that combined with 3.4% natural deaths, would come with the 12.4% number. Second, if 98%-99% recover, however 12.4% of them dies in the next 5 months, but only 9% of them are actual COVID (being the other 3.4% 'natural' & other diseases deaths), that would simply bring the death rate from 1-2% to something around 10%. What you guys here think of this (specially [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION])?

I think this is so dangerous that I should even tag all my friend list, but for the moment I am tagging [MENTION=39780]noname3788[/MENTION], [MENTION=40271]mancino[/MENTION], [MENTION=33903]Red Memories[/MENTION].

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was just "thinking around" about [MENTION=14857]Powehi[/MENTION] shared news article (it is quoted on the post above for those who didn't read it) and I actually have thought that this could be a huge game changer (originally it would be a post edit but decided to do a new one). The number of 12.3% of deaths from people who are hospitalized comes from people who were, obviously, hospitalized - people who caught COVID but could deal it at home should be way less likely to have a "post-death" or return to the hospital with complications.

I did heard recently one story of a guy, a known person from a family member friend, who went hospitalized by COVID, got better on Friday, the doctor wait until Sunday to see if the recover was full and dismissed the patient, and then days later the person suddenly passed away (breathing problems), so suddenly that when they took the person to the hospital, it was already too late.

So if this is right (it will have revisions and further studies but this is long term and that shall take months and months), this has the potential to more than double, maybe triply the COVID death rate. However, these other deaths have potential to be way more silent and are going to be more present this year and in the next one.
I was also thinking how this change the death-rate. It did established as general 1-2%, right? I was thinking about two things...First, what is the average age for these numbers? I guess it would be something like 50 and something years old, probably. So, what is the chance of someone without COVID and at 50 and something years old to die inside the 5 months? This number should be considered as well so we can compare, so, for example, if 3.4% of them dies randomly, then we could attribute 9% of actual COVID generated deaths, that combined with 3.4% natural deaths, would come with the 12.4% number. Second, if 98%-99% recover, however 12.4% of them dies in the next 5 months, but only 9% of them are actual COVID (being the other 3.4% 'natural' & other diseases deaths), that would simply bring the death rate from 1-2% to something around 10%. What you guys here think of this (specially [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION])?

Well, I am not a doctor. Plus it is hard to judge based on a article or two.
But yes, COVID seem to be disease that seem fairly permanent if you catch some stronger version of it. Since it damages organs etc.
Which is why it has to be avoided at almost any cost if possible. .

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

stay home as much as possible. this isn't hard, people. if you have to go to work, keep distance from others. oh, and wearing the mask over only your mouth or down around your chin doesn't count

 

[JAVO]

Unemployment During the Pandemic Expected to Cause 900,000 US Deaths, New Economic Study Finds - Foundation for Economic Education

In a new National Bureau for Economic Research paper, researchers from Harvard University, Johns Hopkins University, and Duke University concluded that a staggering 890,000 additional deaths may result over the next 15 years stemming from actions taken to mitigate the spread of the virus.

“Our results suggest that the toll of lives claimed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus far exceeds those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness and that the recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades,” the researchers said.

A recently published study in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation evaluating global COVID-19 responses found that mandatory lockdowns failed to provide significantly more benefits than voluntary measures.

"We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures," the researchers concluded.

Numerous other studies reached similar conclusions. NBER researchers, however, accepted the premise that lockdowns work—albeit with deadly tradeoffs.

“Without any doubt, lockdowns save lives, but they also contribute to the decline in real activity that can have severe consequences on health,” researchers said.

Whether lockdowns saved more lives than they claimed is likely to be a subject debated for years. The NBER research doesn’t answer the question, but it does thoroughly demonstrate the severe costs of lockdowns.

While the human toll of the lockdowns becomes more clear, we’d do well to remember that health is hardly the only adverse consequence of mass unemployment.

Yet it’s important to remember that researchers analyzed just one cost of lockdowns: unemployment and human health. This is of course appropriate for an academic study. However, as the economist Frédéric Bastiat reminds us, an action gives birth to not just one effect, but an entire sea of them, some of which are visible, and many of which are not.

 

[JAVO]

The WHO issued new guidance on Jan 20, 2021 indicating that a positive PCR result should not result in a diagnosis of COVID by itself. Another test is needed, along with matching clinical symptoms (imagine that).

WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05

They also say that the value of the test results is relative to how prevalent the disease is. If someone tests positive without COVID being very prevalent in their area, the likelihood they have COVID is lower, despite the test result. This becomes more of a factor with high cycle thresholds, such as what is commonly used in the US.

WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Look for "COVID cases" to plummet soon.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Unemployment During the Pandemic Expected to Cause 900,000 US Deaths, New Economic Study Finds - Foundation for Economic Education

As usual you are posting distorted conclusions.


In the case there were not have been these measures the US death tool would now be in the millions, perhaps even in tens of million of US citizens. Since the healthcare system would not be able to process all those people, it barely managed to process even this. While in the alternative there wouldn't be any barrier at all to hold this under control and the infection rate would be catastrophic. So if the heathcare system cracked the economic damage would kill even more people than in the alternative. Not to mention that the biggest problem here isn't death but permanent organ damage, that evidently adds to costs on the long run. What also reduces global competitiveness (especially lung damage).


While all the damages you complain about can easily be prevented by giving people the money to live through the lockdown(s) and guaranteeing healthcare even if you are broke. Especially since other diseases didn't go away in this entire mess. What is standard in normal developed countries, not doing it like that is simply insane in current situation. So in the end this whole mess is mostly on the last administration that didn't do a single thing truly right. They couldn't even clearly advocate for the masks so that people realize the risks, what would then allow personal responsibility to fully come into the effect.


Here are some unemployment graphs that show minimal changes since the local system did it right (focus on numbers and not the graph)
Next to US, this is all basically flat



Australia

Germany

Romania

Norway

Turkey

Japan

South Korea

USA





I know that you wouldn't change your minds but people who wonder in here have to know how this really works.

 

[Virtual ghost]

India: At least 5 dead after blaze at world's largest vaccine maker

 

[ceecee]

Dallas rescinds plan that prioritized vaccines for communities of color | The Texas Tribune

In Texas and across the nation, communities of color have been hardest hit by the novel coronavirus, and health officials are grappling with how to ensure equity in the vaccine rollout. In Dallas, as in other major Texas cities, distribution sites are more commonly located in white neighborhoods, and early data showed the North Texas county had distributed most of its shots to residents of whiter, wealthier neighborhoods.

 

[Mole]

Indonesia is our next door country, is the largest muslim country in the world, and surprisingly we get on with them quite well, but at the moment the Indonesian hospitals can't cope with the number of virus cases. There will be a large death toll. We will be getting vaccine to them and helping to distribute it.

 

[Vendrah]

Guys, today deaths on Worldometer to US are 4,000!!!!! Which is way more than Mexico and Brazil that are in second with about 1,300. Even speculating that Brazil is hiding 50% of deaths under the carpet (which is too much), that is still a clear world record. Take care...

Unemployment During the Pandemic Expected to Cause 900,000 US Deaths, New Economic Study Finds - Foundation for Economic Education

Neoliberalism kills and provokes depression on people by many decades by now with generations on the wide world having less expectancy of wealth, unless, of course, you are a 1%er, which gets a higher expectancy. This includes the rising Gini of the US. Yet, who is saying that it kills? Economic despair? Campaigns to take people out of economic despair? Nay... Its the opposite, neolibs wants everything open to keep their profits, the super rich even managed to get richer, they have been destroying the state which reduces the capacity of the state to give a quite small minimal income for these times as [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] said.. If this was proper organized, people wouldn't get fired, they would rather get a temporarily dismissal of work with perhaps some few periods of vacation of proper lockdowns. But no, for neolibs this is just a small flu.

 

[JAVO]

The restrictions are for you only, not the people who make them:

GOP including Gov. DeWine's son hold maskless party in Cincinnati

 

[JAVO]

Impacts of lockdown on the mental health of children and young people | Mental Health Foundation



The Mental Health Toll of COVID-19 | Psychology Today

What surprised many experts though was the toll COVID is taking on the mental health of younger Americans. A CDC study shows that while 40 percent of Americans are now grappling with at least one mental health or drug-related problem following the pandemic, young adults have been hit harder than any other age group, with 75 percent struggling. Even more alarming, was the finding that one in four young adults, age 18-24, had contemplated suicide over a 30-day period in the summer. While official figures are slow to roll in to confirm an increase in suicides among younger Americans, anecdotal reports from coroners and medical examiners suggest significant spikes in suicides across the country, in children as young as 9 years old.

 

[FemMecha]

Small Number of COVID-19 Patients Develop Psychotic Symptoms | Health.com

 

[FemMecha]

Impacts of lockdown on the mental health of children and young people | Mental Health Foundation

The Mental Health Toll of COVID-19 | Psychology Today

So what are you saying should be different? No online school?

This is a serious question I have about "lockdowns". What is locked down? In all the states where I know people they can choose to attend churches, go to bars, restaurants, fly on airplanes, throw parties in their homes. The only things I'm aware of are mask mandates where people are supposed to wear masks in businesses and public places, but many states don't enforce it. Some places have curfews with bars closing earlier. Schools are partially online which is tough on kids and a lot of people are choosing to stay home or not go out to eat, so some businesses are suffering serious loss of income.

People talk like the U.S. is shut down, but am I missing something? If I chose to, I could live my entire life right now with zero change except wearing a mask in public businesses. Everything I do differently for the pandemic is completely my choice. At least where I live, I don't see what's locked down, except schools are partially online and I know it's difficult for children.

Edit: Maybe kids are committing suicide because so many adults are acting like complete spoilt brats about politics and the pandemic. Maybe the adult lack of ability to process stress and emotion is serving as an example to children with dire consequences. *hits nail on the head*

 

[Vendrah]

Impacts of lockdown on the mental health of children and young people | Mental Health Foundation



The Mental Health Toll of COVID-19 | Psychology Today

Oh yeah, when I was talking about "generations" I was referring to the young people today, who on the US have to pay a lot to go to the Uni, way more than the earlier ones, usually contracting debts that makes the bankers behind them richer, while they are still less likely to get a proper and decent job and they treat as has nothing to do with neoliberalism... Market is perfect... So, yeah, just business men pretending to care positively while they don't...

 

[Virtual ghost]

Oh yeah, when I was talking about "generations" I was referring to the young people today, who on the US have to pay a lot to go to the Uni, way more than the earlier ones, usually contracting debts that makes the bankers behind them richer, while they are still less likely to get a proper and decent job and they treat as has nothing to do with neoliberalism... Market is perfect... So, yeah, just business men pretending to care positively while they don't...

The irony is that this pandemic kinda exposed the entire system for what it is. Therefore it will be interesting to watch what will happen on the long run. Especially since the whole thing was unsustainable even before the pandemic. So just turning the clock back wouldn't really do it.

 

[ceecee]

So what are you saying should be different? No online school?

This is a serious question I have about "lockdowns". What is locked down? In all the states where I know people they can choose to attend churches, go to bars, restaurants, fly on airplanes, throw parties in their homes. The only things I'm aware of are mask mandates where people are supposed to wear masks in businesses and public places, but many states don't enforce it. Some places have curfews with bars closing earlier. Schools are partially online which is tough on kids and a lot of people are choosing to stay home or not go out to eat, so some businesses are suffering serious loss of income.

People talk like the U.S. is shut down, but am I missing something? If I chose to, I could live my entire life right now with zero change except wearing a mask in public businesses. Everything I do differently for the pandemic is completely my choice. At least where I live, I don't see what's locked down, except schools are partially online and I know it's difficult for children.

Edit: Maybe kids are committing suicide because so many adults are acting like complete spoilt brats about politics and the pandemic. Maybe the adult lack of ability to process stress and emotion is serving as an example to children with dire consequences. *hits nail on the head*

I find it telling that people talking about the climbing suicide rates seem to not grasp that the reason for suicides was frequently the same reason BEFORE Covid.

Poverty, lack of health care access, lack of health care affordability, lack of child care, lack of jobs, lack of food access - the total bootstraps brainwashing in the US. A government so derelict in its concern for its people then add the last 4 years of chaotic stupidity plus the absence of a comprehensive federal response to the pandemic - it's fucking obvious that it's MUCH more than just the lockdown.

The UK paper also cites these things, Psychology Today does not.

 

[Totenkindly]

You're More Likely to Get COVID From Someone [Talking] Than Coughing

Geez.

 

[mancino]

Almost a third of recovered Covid patients return to hospital in five months and one in eight die

"Out of 47,780 people who were discharged from hospital in the first wave, 29.4 per cent were readmitted to hospital within 140 days, and 12.3 per cent of the total died.
The current cut-off point for recording Covid deaths is 28 days after a positive test, so it may mean thousands more people should be included in the coronavirus death statistics."

Thanks to [MENTION=14857]Powehi[/MENTION] for sharing, and to [MENTION=32874]Vendrah[/MENTION] for tagging.
It's staggering news indeed!
12.3% is so high that I hope there's something wrong in the study. The implications of this are unthinkable at the moment

 

[Virtual ghost]

French health watchdog calls for delay in second vaccine jab


I got the impression that sooner or latter something like this will start to happen.