I'm not going to argue what steps should be taken to handle the coronavirus: There are arguments both pro and con when it comes to letting it spread unchecked vs active intervention (travel restrictions, lockdowns, etc.). I've mentioned some of the arguments both ways in my earlier posts.
But I think it's important to keep in mind a couple things:
1) Pretty much like the normal flu, EVERYONE is going to get the coronavirus at some point in the next year or two.
2) And when they do get it, it's going to be quite mild for most: A cough and some sniffles. It's only one sector of the population that's going to be at substantial risk for more serious problems: The elderly and the infirm.
So if EVERYONE is going to get it sooner or later, then why all this talk about containing the disease?
Well, it's a question of the RATE of spread of the disease. For example, if you can slow the spread of the disease somewhat, then you can spread out the rate of inevitable deaths in the vulnerable sector (the elderly and the infirm) over a greater span of time. A few deaths now, a few deaths later, and so on. Whereas if you let the disease spread quickly, then a lot of deaths among the elderly and infirm will all hit at once.
There are arguments for doing it either way (slow spread vs fast spread).
--A slow spread is easier on the health-care system, but it's far worse for the economy because of the costs of containment: Things like travel restrictions, lockdowns, etc. mess up the economy and cause disruptions for a lot of the population who aren't otherwise particularly harmed by this thing.
--By comparison, a quick spread results in a lot of illnesses and deaths fast, which is more of a short-term strain on the health-care system. But it's over a lot quicker: Less overall strain on the economy, no need to lock down population centers for months on end, etc.
Of course, all this is hypothetical; the disease is still a relatively new phenomenon, and there may still be some twists and turns to come.
But I just wanted to reiterate those two main points that I mentioned above:
1) EVERYONE is going to get it sooner or later. The coronavirus acts pretty much like the standard flu, and the standard flu supposedly hits about 60% of the population in a normal year. At that point pretty much everyone is getting some exposure to it either directly or indirectly. So stopping the spread is effectively impossible. Any debate about what to do is really about affecting the RATE of spread, not stopping the spread. Even if the government can slow the spread down enough to come up with a vaccine, it's going to be like the standard flu vaccine: Hit and miss at best. Like the standard flu, this coronavirus seems to have multiple forms, so vaccines are going to be guesswork.
2) Most people will be fine when they get it. A cough and a sniffle. Many won't even know they had it. It's mainly going to hit one sector hard, and those are mostly folks whose health was already compromised in the first place. Their mortality rate was already higher than the rest of the population even before the disease started.
Don't get me wrong: Given that I'm in my 60s and have at least one foot in the vulnerable sector, I'm all for slowing the spread among the older population. But if EVERYONE is going to get it sooner or later, then it's not necessarily worth shutting down entire countries over it. That has negative consequences too.
Again: I don't have any medical background, and this thing is still new. So I'm in in watch-and-wait mode like everyone else. I'm just pointing out a couple salient issues that explain why it's not necessarily the case that we should impose draconian disease-containment restrictions that might cause more harm than help.
Anyway, I'll shut up after this. Basically what's needed is more time to see how this thing shapes up. At this point, it's pretty much all guesswork as to what to do about the situation. Beyond that, I'm content to let the experts figure this stuff out. I'm just a guy on the sidelines, and there's really not much I can do about the situation other than practice good hand-washing and keep a low profile socially for a while. And aside from that, frankly I don't pay it much attention. I make what healthy changes I can, then I move on.