Coronavirus

[EcK]

The danger is that it becomes endemic worldwide like the common flu is. With hundreds of millions of people to incubate in it could regularly mutate and reinfect people who have already caught and survived the infection a year or 3 earlier - meaning it could kill millions to tens of millions every year for decades. It’s extremely contagious - any mutation increasing mortality by even 1 point would lead to tens of millions additional deaths. However a mutation slightly decreasing contagion rates would not have a comparable effect in reducing deaths due to the number of asymptomatic carriers and overwhelming contagiousness.

I also don’t believe the numbers given by the Chinese government. They have crématoriums working 24/7 - that’s not required if it s only 1000 deaths in a country of a billion over 2 months. In Wuhan for example if you look at the Chinese death rate of 7.3/1000 you can calculate that with a population of 11 million there is 80,000 death per year so 13,300 every 2 months. Meaning for this period - even if all deaths from the virus in the whole of China were in Wuhan (not the case) the added deaths would only represent an increase of 7.5 %. That’s clearly not enough to justify the 24/7 crematoriums. Even if only 10% of crematoriums worked 24/7 in high infection zones it would translate into at least around 5-10 thousand dead - not mere hundreds. There are pictures of people dead on the street for Pete’s sake - that doesn’t happen if there s only a few hundred death in a region the size of a regular country.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

yeah, we're probably pretty fucked.

 

[Lark]

I'm more scared by the potential effects on the economy. This thing has already wreaked havoc with our Chinese suppliers, to the point we're now looking at procuring goods domestically. Mexico is one of the countries where suppliers and manufacturers are still able to really compete with China, so one positive, assuming the virus doesn't wreak havoc in Mexico, is this could really give a boost to the Mexican economy, not to mention the boost domestic US manufacturing might see, even if only a temporary bump.

People have no idea how complicated supply chains are and how one crisis can butterfly outwards through the entire economy. Especially in this day and age when everything is literally so interconnected and you can barely get a good or service without something coming from another country or using components and labor from other countries. It's not like people can just go on amazon and order everything they need until this thing is over.

I know that it might sound shallow to only focus on the economic aspect, but I am concerned about how the economic impact will go hand-in-hand with the potential impact on society.

I know a lot of people who imagine they can do that.

 

[EcK]

Well does anyone have any data on mortality rate outside of China? I’m assuming first world countries will be applying expensive treatments early in the illness etc. that a country with far more cases can’t afford so lethality should be lower but it would give an idea of the “minimum death rate” at least. In any case I don’t think China is necessarily lying about the death rate (much) as that would be a stupid thing to try and hide. I am convinced that they are lying about the number of infected and total deaths though. They’re a communist dictatorship for Pete’s sake - there’s hardly a more morally bankrupt form of government.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well does anyone have any data on mortality rate outside of China? I’m assuming first world countries will be applying expensive treatments early in the illness etc. that a country with far more cases can’t afford so lethality should be lower but it would give an idea of the “minimum death rate” at least. In any case I don’t think China is necessarily lying about the death rate (much) as that would be a stupid thing to try and hide. I am convinced that they are lying about the number of infected and total deaths though. They’re a communist dictatorship for Pete’s sake - there’s hardly a more morally bankrupt form of government.

They really don't have to lie about anything. If someone gets sick you just place them in front of a firing squad and that is it. Technically the person didn't die from the virus.

Actually in my part of the world you have people that are like "Damn, not even Communism is what it used to be :sarcasm:".



:second world "humor":

 

[SearchingforPeace]

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

 

[Jaguar]

They really don't have to lie about anything.

U.S. drug supply. It shouldn't surprise you I'd bring up the issue again - dependence on China. Quality control and lack of FDA oversight is shit over there, and has been for years. This will only exacerbate the problem. And while the Corona may wind down at some point, it still doesn't change the underlying problem that has long been swept under the rug. What this should do is serve as a wakeup call to those whistling past the graveyard and do something about the problem rather than sitting on their fat asses.

Coronavirus tests U.S. medical system's unhealthy reliance on China for drugs

 

[Virtual ghost]

U.S. drug supply. It shouldn't surprise you I'd bring up the issue again - dependence on China. Quality control and lack of FDA oversight is shit over there, and has been for years. This will only exacerbate the problem. And while the Corona may wind down at some point, it still doesn't change the underlying problem that has long been swept under the rug. What this should do is serve as a wakeup call to those whistling past the graveyard and do something about the problem rather than sitting on their fat asses.

Coronavirus tests U.S. medical system's unhealthy reliance on China for drugs

I was just "joking" with my post. I mean we talked about this and I told you that I am fully for the idea that USA makes it's own drugs. To me this is just common sense.
Therefore I presume we ok here.

 

[Jaguar]

I was just "joking" with my post. I mean we talked about this and I told you that I am fully for the idea that USA makes it's own drugs. To me this is just common sense.
Therefore I presume we ok here.

I know you were joking, but that was in my head at the time. Besides, the post's link wasn't meant for only you.

 

[EcK]

They really don't have to lie about anything. If someone gets sick you just place them in front of a firing squad and that is it. Technically the person didn't die from the virus.

Actually in my part of the world you have people that are like "Damn, not even Communism is what it used to be :sarcasm:".



:second world "humor":

Xi Jinping Vows To Combat Coronavirus By Making It Illegal To Mention Within A Week

BEIJING—In an effort to assuage concerns about how his government has handled the deadly disease outbreak, Chinese president Xi Jinping held a press conference Monday to announce plans to combat the coronavirus by making it illegal to mention within the next week. “We are directing massive resources towards eradicating the slightest hint of any person speaking about the virus, and I promise you that any conversation or literature pertaining to the virus will be completely eliminated during the next seven days,” said Xi, warning that if immediate action was not taken, it could be too late to stop the spread of information. “We have already seen far too many senseless deaths as a result of this outbreak, so I vow here and now that those official death toll numbers will remain unchanged.” Xi closed his remarks by urging anyone who believed they were suffering from the outbreak or knew someone who was to come forward so they could be executed.

 

[Population: 1]

Current CDC map of countries with confirmed cases. (11AM ET, February 22) Obviously excluding countries with ill equipped or virtually nonexistent medical infrastructures where testing isn’t occurring. Note North Korea isn’t reporting any cases (nothing to see here folks).

 

[Virtual ghost]

It seems that stock markets are in "troubles" over this.

 

[Maou]

I heard its reached its peak thank god.

 

[21%]

Peak in China -- just starting for the rest of the world (?)

 

[EcK]

Peak in China -- just starting for the rest of the world (?)

Wait and see.
As of today the official numbers are 2765 dead and 80,000 cases (of which 50,000 are still 'active').
Now do I trust Chinese official numbers? No. But I'd have to assume there is at least some relation to reality.

But yes you are right the danger now is for a major spread in countries with poor healthcare.
Italy has 325 cases, Japan 171 cases, Iran 95, Singapore 91, Hong Kong 85, USA 57, Thailand 40, Taiwan 32, Bahrain 26, Australia 22 etc. [ source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 81,017 Cases and 2,765 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer ]
Some of these countries are unlikely to contain an epidemic if it goes out of control. Wait and See

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

not the exciting zombie virus I'd hoped for. Not even as exciting as that stupid Dustin Hoffman movie virus.

 

[Peter Deadpan]

not the exciting zombie virus I'd hoped for. Not even as exciting as that stupid Dustin Hoffman movie virus.

I'm just waiting for someone to bioengineer the cordyceps fungus so that it can parasitize humans resulting in the actual zombie apocalypse I so desperately want. I don't even care what side I end up on... whatever gets us off our fucking cell phones and into the woods.

- - - Updated - - -

Did I type this from my cell phone? Yes, yes I did...

 

[Population: 1]

not the exciting zombie virus I'd hoped for. Not even as exciting as that stupid Dustin Hoffman movie virus.

It’s all what a boring pandemic in the age of instant gratification until someone is bleeding out of their eyes and trying to eat your face.

 

[Totenkindly]

Having someone vault over my cube wall going for my soft body parts would be far more exciting than having to read through a day and a half of tedious Systems e-mails and generic meeting invites.

---

My daughter just wrote me. Apparently someone employed at her work facility returned from traveling from a coronavirus-infested location (in hindsight) and has now been quarantined at home -- but a guy in a Hazmat suit is spraying down the cubicle at work. She said everyone is freaking out. They're not nearly as unflappable as Homer Simpson.

 

[Jaguar]

Live updates: New coronavirus case confirmed in U.S. as outbreak spreads; Trump calls news conference, accuses media of ‘panicking markets’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...89693a-580e-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html