Coronavirus

[SearchingforPeace]

A couple news bits a heard driving today:

Macao casinos are being shut down (already were 85% empty during their busiest time of the year).

Korean automakers shutting down factories due to lack of parts from China.

 

[Maou]

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real dat... | Taiwan News

If this is real, holy fuck.

 

[rav3n]

SARS had a much higher death rate, but was so lethal (40%) that no one tried to evade treatment.

The coronavirus has only a 10% kill rate, but a very long incubation phase (14 days) and mild initial symptoms. As such, it spread worldwide far quicker and far wider.

It isn't a flu. Ebola is really deadly, but it kills so fast that it rarely spreads. As such, it usually just kills off a village and stops.

If a billion get exposed, we could see 100 million dead.

The NY Times published a chart last night showing how fast this is spreading. WHO is treating it extremely seriously. The US is requiring mandatory quarantines of anyone that gets it. Flights are getting canceled.

All this is likely too late to stop the spread. The death toll is climbing very quickly.

Coronavirus has a 2% mortality rate, not 10%. There's a ton of misinformation out there, particularly on conspiracy theory loaded interweb sites and media.

 

[SearchingforPeace]

Coronavirus has a 2% mortality rate, not 10%. There's a ton of misinformation out there, particularly on conspiracy theory loaded interweb sites and media.

Actuality, you just presented more misinformation. The death rate is still a range and potential.

As a side note, people trying to allege "conspiracies theories" to discount information they dislike usually are just parroting narrative control statements.

The measures being taken by China show it is taking this matter very seriously now, after trying to suppress information that leaked out as "conspiracies". China wouldn't be shutting down so much otherwise.

Of course, the Spanish Flu allegedly had only a 2.5% morality rate, but killed 25% of Western Samoa adults age 18-50 when it got there, and zero in American Samoa which quarantined itself from the outside world.

 

[rav3n]

Actuality, you just presented more misinformation. The death rate is still a range and potential.

As a side note, people trying to allege "conspiracies theories" to discount information they dislike usually are just parroting narrative control statements.

The measures being taken by China show it is taking this matter very seriously now, after trying to suppress information that leaked out as "conspiracies". China wouldn't be shutting down so much otherwise.

Of course, the Spanish Flu allegedly had only a 2.5% morality rate, but killed 25% of Western Samoa adults age 18-50 when it got there, and zero in American Samoa which quarantined itself from the outside world.

China coronavirus outbreak: everything you need to know - The Verge

So far, the fatality rate for the new coronavirus is around 2 to 3 percent, though that could continue to change as the outbreak progresses. The fatality rate for SARS was about 14 to 15 percent. Most deaths in this outbreak have been in older people who have underlying health issues, like heart disease, hypertension, and diabetes. (That’s the same demographic who is most at risk of dying from illnesses like the flu.)

I agree that the mortality rate might increase but stating that the mortality rate is 10% would be a gross exaggeration.

 

[Yuurei]

China coronavirus outbreak: everything you need to know - The Verge



I agree that the mortality rate might increase but stating that the mortality rate is 10% would be a gross exaggeration.

This has always been my thoughts about it. “ Okay, it spreads quickly but whats the death toll? Like, 200/5000+ ?” Sure mutation is possible but I think the dangers of the mass-hysteria the media is trying to create is far greater.

 

[Virtual ghost]

American media don't say anything about cured people ?
There is no official cure but the body in general should still stands the chance against this, it isn't that you are doomed if you catch this.


(I am not medical expert)

 

[Peter Deadpan]

American media don't say anything about cured people ?
There is no official cure but the body in general should still stands the chance against this, it isn't that you are doomed if you catch this.


(I am not medical expert)

American media never paints the whole picture.

 

[highlander]

I think there are good odds that 8000 to 9000 have this thing in China. They aren't exactly open communicators. Think Russia and Chernobyl. That being said, the normal flu in the US had been far more deadly this season. Get a flu shot if you havent already.

 

[Jaguar]

WUHAN CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
Coronavirus Update (Live): 28,276 Cases and 565 Deaths from the Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

I'm sure it's just a scam, though. It all is, right?

 

[Red Herring]

So far the letality is about 2% ans is more likely to go up than down. Naturally all sorts of mutations are possible but if a virus is too aggressive that usually works to its disadvantage. The incubation period is UP TO 14 days but on average it's 5 days.

Wait and see.

As others have said, far more people die from the flu which has a similar letality.

 

[Maou]

Do you guys forget China is practically a communist dictatorship? They are not going to tell the world how many are dying...no, that would affect trade. But dont mind the videos of the government sealing people into their homes, and hospital hallways full of corpses (the person who posted that, btw, was arrested) and corpses on the street. They did this shit with SARS too.

The "confirmed" stat is complete bullshit, because they don't have enough testing kits. They are lying based on what the Chinese people have leaked online. China has a massive history of censorship. Why are you guys believing them?

What makes this virus deadly is not its fatality rate, but infection rate. Even with 3% deaths, but it affects millions. Many people are gonna die. Ive seen nothing but doubling numbers since it started. First world countries will probably be okay, but not China.

 

[SearchingforPeace]

How the Coronavirus Made Globalization a Deadly Threat - DER SPIEGEL

Very good article on the global impact, even if it doesn't spread much more

 

[Jaguar]

They are not going to tell the world how many are dying...no, that would affect trade.

It already has, whether they are lying or not.

 

[rav3n]

The mortality rate continues to hover around 2.2% with 37,198 infected and 811 deaths. WHO has a team headed to China.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Definite effect on business and trade. My company procures a good deal of goods and materials from China. There have been some delays and we expect further delays.

 

[SearchingforPeace]

Bloomberg - Coronavirus could infect two thirds of globe

 

[SearchingforPeace]

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated | medRxiv

....
Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.


....

 

[Population: 1]

So it’s not just the flu bro?

I’ve been watching it the whole time. Basically the powers that be are trying to conduct damage control with respect to the global economy. Everyone loves globalism until there’s an epidemic in the country that produces most of our goods through slave labor. I was reading how entire shipping centers are shut down in China. Stocks are up right now to counter the effects but that’s an unsustainable tactic.

Most people will likely only be inconvenienced by this instead of being stricken seriously ill. However, I still worry about the economy and the potential to overwhelm our healthcare system. Also the potential for panic and economic instability can be more dangerous than the pandemic itself.

It’s troubling that the Covid-19 virus is very contagious, has a potential incubation period of weeks, can survive on surfaces for days, is possibly aerosolized, and is probably mutating as it spreads. That last part is what truly terrifies me. The prospect of this thing returning next year or sometime in the near future in an even more virulent and deadly form.

I think people are becoming complacent because this isn’t a movie like pandemic with a virus spreading over the globe in mere days. Yet this thing is spreading and delayed symptoms mean that the true scope of this hasn’t unfolded yet.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I'm more scared by the potential effects on the economy. This thing has already wreaked havoc with our Chinese suppliers, to the point we're now looking at procuring goods domestically. Mexico is one of the countries where suppliers and manufacturers are still able to really compete with China, so one positive, assuming the virus doesn't wreak havoc in Mexico, is this could really give a boost to the Mexican economy, not to mention the boost domestic US manufacturing might see, even if only a temporary bump.

People have no idea how complicated supply chains are and how one crisis can butterfly outwards through the entire economy. Especially in this day and age when everything is literally so interconnected and you can barely get a good or service without something coming from another country or using components and labor from other countries. It's not like people can just go on amazon and order everything they need until this thing is over.

I know that it might sound shallow to only focus on the economic aspect, but I am concerned about how the economic impact will go hand-in-hand with the potential impact on society.