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Coronavirus

John Catstentine

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Chilling. Got any coffee?

Dear Jaguar, co: the jungle.


Alas. I'm not supposed to drink coffee, the caffeine makes me wildly unmanageable. I tried a double espresso once at a theme park...long story short. I couldnt go back for ten years and woke up in the bushes later that night. the nineties were a wild time.

In any case. Hope you're doing well.

Your friend from a different food web,
The Cat
big-black-cat-paw-print-leg-foot-with-nail-claw-vector-20837757.jpg
 

Peter Deadpan

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Put your conspiracy theories on the shelf. These new virus strains often originate in food markets in countries that don't prioritize sanitation. The reason is that different viruses exist in different animals, so when you have various animal meat sources in close proximity to one another, the viruses can cross-mutate. If this mutation occurs with a virus that is zoonotic (a virus that can be transmitted between animals and humans), then you end up with a new viral strain that can infect humans, and because it is new, targeted treatments don't yet exist.

Science, bitch.
 
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They’ve been expecting something like this at least since I was a teenager. It was overshadowed back in the 80’s by the constant concern of nuclear death from the skies but I remember watching programs about pandemics back then. So I’m not surprised. We just have to hope for the best and see what happens.

Edit: I’m not saying this is the next pandemic but it’s always been a matter of when and not if.
 
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Put your conspiracy theories on the shelf. These new virus strains often originate in food markets in countries that don't prioritize sanitation. The reason is that different viruses exist in different animals, so when you have various animal meat sources in close proximity to one another, the viruses can cross-mutate. If this mutation occurs with a virus that is zoonotic (a virus that can be transmitted between animals and humans), then you end up with a new viral strain that can infect humans, and because it is new, targeted treatments don't yet exist.

Science, bitch.

One day, I read it was from eating bat soup. The next, it was rats, wolves, and koalas. Is it normal for Chinese people to eat those things? If it's not, then one wonders why they're eating them now. My guess is it has something to do with the trade wars and buying less American food. So now they're eating rats. Maybe. I don't know.
 

Yuurei

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One day, I read it was from eating bat soup. The next, it was rats, wolves, and koalas. Is it normal for Chinese people to eat those things? If it's not, then one wonders why they're eating them now. My guess is it has something to do with the trade wars and buying less American food. So now they're eating rats. Maybe. I don't know.

They do not eat rats ( although I can’t speak for every individual) but their health code-or lack there of- would make it quite easy fo4 rats/rat feces fo end up in food.
It’s quite a horror show. Every day my friend comes home with nightmarish stories of the state of the chem labs he works in run by Chinese here in the states.
 

rav3n

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Put your conspiracy theories on the shelf. These new virus strains often originate in food markets in countries that don't prioritize sanitation. The reason is that different viruses exist in different animals, so when you have various animal meat sources in close proximity to one another, the viruses can cross-mutate. If this mutation occurs with a virus that is zoonotic (a virus that can be transmitted between animals and humans), then you end up with a new viral strain that can infect humans, and because it is new, targeted treatments don't yet exist.

Science, bitch.
If anyone's seen an Asian wet market, they wouldn't bother wandering into conspiracy theory territory. They sell live animals, often in tiny wire cages, stacked on top of each other so urine and fecal matter drop onto the animals below or the cages are butt up against each other. The animals aren't provided with food or water so their immune systems are negligible which translates to being prime targets for disease contraction. Animals can be butchered on the ground. Butchered whole or parts of animals sit on counters without wrapping or refrigeration. Vendors are in tight spaces so transmission of diseases will spread like wildfire.
 

Yuurei

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If anyone's seen an Asian wet market, they wouldn't bother wandering into conspiracy theory territory. They sell live animals, often in tiny wire cages, stacked on top of each other so urine and fecal matter drop onto the animals below or the cages are butt up against each other. The animals aren't provided with food or water so their immune systems are negligible which translates to being prime targets for disease contraction. Animals can be butchered on the ground. Butchered whole or parts of animals sit on counters without wrapping or refrigeration. Vendors are in tight spaces so transmission of diseases will spread like wildfire.

I can’t understand why people do this. They are aware by now, at least I would think, about the dangers of spreading disease. Reminds me of how the Ebola outbreak occurred last time. They’re told “ Don’t eat bush meat! ( monkeys)” Yet they do it anyway. My immediate thought is that I’ve just never been desperate enough but on second thought I imagine there about a zillion things easier to catch( than monkeys.

In the instance of animal markets ( I’ve seen them. They are atrocious) I can only imagine it’s yet another example of immediate gratification at the expense of one’s future; humanities greatest foe.
 
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If anyone's seen an Asian wet market, they wouldn't bother wandering into conspiracy theory territory. They sell live animals, often in tiny wire cages, stacked on top of each other so urine and fecal matter drop onto the animals below or the cages are butt up against each other. The animals aren't provided with food or water so their immune systems are negligible which translates to being prime targets for disease contraction. Animals can be butchered on the ground. Butchered whole or parts of animals sit on counters without wrapping or refrigeration. Vendors are in tight spaces so transmission of diseases will spread like wildfire.

They've been doing that for a while though, right? Then, all of a sudden, this strange disease pops up. So, I wonder if this theory about food sanitation is a sufficient explanation all on its own. That's why I was thinking the trade deal problems that they're having with the US might be to blame.
 

rav3n

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I can’t understand why people do this. They are aware by now, at least I would think, about the dangers of spreading disease. Reminds me of how the Ebola outbreak occurred last time. They’re told “ Don’t eat bush meat! ( monkeys)” Yet they do it anyway. My immediate thought is that I’ve just never been desperate enough but on second thought I imagine there about a zillion things easier to catch( than monkeys.

In the instance of animal markets ( I’ve seen them. They are atrocious) I can only imagine it’s yet another example of immediate gratification at the expense of one’s future; humanities greatest foe.
Relative to bush meat, considering the poverty levels in Africa, people will consume what's cheap and available. Often enough, it's apes like gorillas who as you know, are substantial in size and easy to catch. That said, people aren't told what type of meat they're buying since bush meat is primarily poached herbivores.

But in China, people know what animal flesh they're buying so it's a case of curiosity and/or preference for the exotic. Myself (no, I don't live in China, lol), I'm open to trying all sorts of meats but not from apes, monkeys and many other animals and only through legal and sanitary avenues.

As it stands, China has banned the sale of live animals in markets across Wuhan.

Wuhan virus: China bans food markets selling live animals like wolves - Business Insider
 

rav3n

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They've been doing that for a while though, right? Then, all of a sudden, this strange disease pops up. So, I wonder if this theory about food sanitation is a sufficient explanation all on its own. That's why I was thinking the trade deal problems that they're having with the US might be to blame.
Consider SARS and MERS. Same problem.
 

cascadeco

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We've been 'ripe' for a new virus for a while now; health experts have stated for years/decades that a major one will eventually happen, and have been warning for a while re antibiotic resistance, viral/bacterial mutations, etc. Microbes and viruses have a strong incentive to evolve.
 
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Consider SARS and MERS. Same problem.

The trade deals have effected the food supply. I don't see why people want to ignore the circumstances in which this disease has manifested.

The Trade War Cost U.S. Farmers Their China Market. A Deal Might Not Bring It Back
By
Grady McGregor



U.S. farmers have paid a steep price during Washington's months-long trade war with Beijing, losing almost two-thirds of their exports to China. Now, however, there is hope as trade talks—with U.S. agriculture squarely in the center—seem to be closing in on a deal.

But even if an agreement comes to fruition, changes in the world agriculture market may mean that those farmers will still lose out.

This week, President Donald Trump demanded China buy up to $50 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually, and China reacted with reluctance, arguing that it would be better to allow market forces to dictate purchases after tariffs are eased.

This mirrors news from several weeks ago, when China denied President Trump's claims that the country would purchase $50 billion in agricultural products as part of the trade agreement. Reports pegged the figure nearer to $20 billion, which would be much closer to the $24 billion in agricultural products the U.S. shipped to China at its peak in 2014—and more than double the $9 billion sent last year.

Those trade figures are why analysts like Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCSTONE in Shanghai, think a $50 billion guarantee was always unlikely. But there are others forces at play. In China, the desire to defer to market whims may reflect the country's increasingly diversified food supply; the country has accounted for the decrease in U.S. agricultural imports by increasing trade with other countries.

“Agriculture is one of those things that the U.S. side really has to address. It’s probably the most publicized, or well-known, effect of the trade war,” Friedrichs said. “[But] basically, over the past year and a half, China has been really aggressive in trying to diversify where [it's] buying from.”
The trade war hits

The trade war began in July 2018, when the U.S. levied $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. China immediately responded by placing a 25% tariff on soybeans, along with taxes on a slew of agricultural and other products. Rounds of retaliatory tariffs over the following months raised soybean tariffs as high as 33% for U.S. producers, and pork tariffs as high as 72%.

Aaron Krauter, a farmer in North Dakota and former head of the state’s farm service agency, says that at the peak of the U.S.-China soybean trade, farmers in his area were sending 80-90% of their soybeans to China. Now, he says, the soybean market has evaporated—and other crops have also been hurt either through tariffs or from secondary impacts.

It’s a huge loss,” Krauter said. “If it’s soybeans, [the impact of the trade war is] really obvious. If it’s wheat, it’s kind of obvious. If it’s other oil seed crops, like canola, they’re saying, 'Wait a minute, what happened to our market? What happened to our prices?'”

U.S. farmers might have initially hoped that the trade war would lead to less trade restrictions with China, Friedrichs says, but now they worry that it could mean a complete loss of the market.

Farmers thought, "'We’re going to get rid of these silly restrictions that China is putting on our products and we’re going to have this huge market [in China],' but that hasn’t happened,” said Friedrichs. “We’re a year and a half into this, and it made China realize [it was] way too dependent on U.S. beans.”
Diversification and African Swine Flu

Indeed, since the trade war began, the Chinese agriculture market has transformed.

Amid the U.S. conflict, China seems to have realized that food security means having diversification of sources, says Friedrichs of INTL FCSTONE. “China has been really aggressive in trying to diversify," he said. "So [after a trade deal], the market might be open for the U.S., but [American producers] are going to face a lot of competition from all these new players.”

China has worked around the U.S. agriculture tariffs by expanding relationships with South American countries like Argentina and Brazil. At the same time, China's pursued its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar-plus policy aimed at developing infrastructure and investment projects around the world. Through BRI, China has established ties with dozens of countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, which has opened new markets for agricultural imports.

“We’ve lost those markets, they’ve gone someplace else, they’ve built up those relationships,” Krauter, the North Dakota farmer, said. “It’s going to take years, years for that to come back.”

Another factor that's reshaped China’s agricultural market in the past months is African Swine Fever (ASF).

Since arriving in China in August last year, ASF has devastated domesticated pig herds across the country. The country has lost as much as 60-70% of its female pigs, and slashed roughly 25% of its pork production.

China is the world’s largest consumer of pork, and ASF has created a massive shortage in the country’s protein supplies. That means U.S. pork producers will stand to benefit from a trade deal; China needs its pork. But other U.S. farmers might not experience the same rebound in the event of a deal because China has fewer pigs to feed.

“Because of the African Swine Fever, there is just not that much need for soybeans and corn [to feed pigs],” said Friedrichs. “The U.S. is trying to push China to buy huge amounts of soybeans, but China is saying, sure, but we don’t really need those.”

Even with these trends underway, there's tremendous pressure on the U.S. side to strike a deal. The government has provided significant subsidies to farmers to offset their losses during the trade war, but a deal with China would provide a more sustainable solution.

The U.S. is certainly not alone in feeling a sense of urgency.

Edgar Wayne Johnson, an agricultural consultant based in Beijing, says China's ASF troubles are reaching a tipping point. With skyrocketing prices of pork and other meat, he says China is entering a food crisis and will be forced to come to the negotiating table.

"Eventually China is going to blink,” said Johnson. “The people of China are taking up the slack, and I don’t know how long it can last."
More must-read stories from Fortune:
 

Luminous

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That's great.:dry:

You know I hear it starts with an earthquake. Then Birds, and snakes on aeroplanes.
Thank goodness Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Be like the eye of a hurricane. Listen to yourself churn. The world serves its own needs, Jag, don't miserve your own needs. Speed it up a notch, speed, grunt, no, strength--The ladder starts to clatter:
With a fear of height, down, height...?:huh: Oh man what a wire in a fire, represent the seven games and a government for hire and a combat site. It's like. I think you may be onto something. It IS the end of the world as we know. How do you feel? I feel...okayish. :shrug:

Lenny Bruce :wubbie:

If he's where I'm going when I die, I'm okay with catching this virus... ;)
 

rav3n

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Correlation is not causation, but causation will have correlation.
It's called a spurious correlation.

Zoonosis is a thing. Many deadly modern diseases and pathogens have their roots from mutated germs jumping species including but not exclusive to Ebola, HIV, Salmonella, E.coli and Hep A. Are you going to find spurious correlations between these and current events?
 
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It's called a spurious correlation.

Zoonosis is a thing. Many deadly modern diseases and pathogens have their roots from mutated germs jumping species including but not exclusive to Ebola, HIV, Salmonella, E.coli and Hep A. Are you going to find spurious correlations between these and current events?

Nobody is denying zoonosis. This is a theory. Doesn't mean it's right. Doesn't mean it is wrong, but you should consider things before you shoot them down for no reason. You are neysaying just to neysay. "Nay!!!" as you would say. It's all so obvious now.
 

rav3n

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Nobody is denying zoonosis. This is a theory. Doesn't mean it's right. Doesn't mean it is wrong, but you should consider things before you shoot them down for no reason. You are neysaying just to neysay. "Nay!!!" as you would say. It's all so obvious now.
It's technically a hypothesis, albeit more commonly known as a 'conspiracy theory'. I rely on logic and proven science.
 
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It's technically a hypothesis, albeit more commonly known as a 'conspiracy theory'.

I don't know what makes it a conspiracy theory. It would be an unintended consequence of the Chinese putting tariffs on American goods.

I rely on logic and proven science.

Apparently not.
 

rav3n

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I don't know what makes it a conspiracy theory. It would be an unintended consequence of the Chinese putting tariffs on American goods.
Other food exporting countries exist, including Canada.

E - I'm going to add something else. The Chinese aren't buying exotic animal meat because of the lack of meat. Exotic meats cost more than mundane meats.
 
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