Coronavirus

[Red Herring]

Since you occasionally hear people talk about false positive tests, I anted to share some numbers.

There was a study done in June which seemed to suggest that there PCR-tests had a false positive rate of somewhere between 1.4 and 2.2%, depending on whether the tests samples contained a closely related virus. That would be relatively high. However, that study was based on a relatively low number of tests (7000 samples sent to 463 labs in 36 countries). Also, quite a few of those were down to human error, i.e. mixed up samples etc and varing quality of the labs involved.

BUT if you look at some more current numbers from Germany, they suggest a much, much lower false positive rate. First of all, there is a threshold below which the virus is har to detect so some sampes considered false positive because a second test came back negative much actually have been right but the second test didn't detect the low concentration. In the second week of July German did some 510.00 tests and only 0.59% of those came back positive, so even if somehow all of them were false positives, the false positive rate must be well below 1% or have been well below 1% in that week for that half a million of tests. In a imilar vein, there is a lab with 500 employees that tested them on a regular basis. They have done roughly 20.000 tests on these people all together and only 3 of them ever came back positive - from people who did show symptoms!

That suggests that while false positives are obviously always something to keep an eye on, the rate of false positive tests seems to be fairly low. False negative PCR-tests seem to be much more of an issue as there is only a relatively limited time window for them to make any sense.

 

[Red Memories]

India +76 800


Evidently a today's record among all countries of the world.
In the the incoming days they should even pass 78 000 a day. If memory serves me well that is the largest daily gain of cases any country had since the start of the pandemic.

I haven't heard from her in like a year but I have an online friend who lives in India...I hope she's okay...

 

[JAVO]

Department of Justice Requesting Data From Governors of States that Issued COVID-19 Orders that May Have Resulted in Deaths of Elderly Nursing Home Residents


Data will help inform whether the Department of Justice will initiate investigations under the Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act (CRIPA) regarding New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan’s response to COVID-19 in public nursing homes

Today the Justice Department requested COVID-19 data from the governors of states that issued orders which may have resulted in the deaths of thousands of elderly nursing home residents. New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan required nursing homes to admit COVID-19 patients to their vulnerable populations, often without adequate testing.

...

According to the Centers for Disease Control, New York has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States, with 32,592 victims, many of them elderly. New York’s death rate by population is the second highest in the country with 1,680 deaths per million people. New Jersey’s death rate by population is 1,733 deaths per million people – the highest in the nation. In contrast, Texas’s death rate by population is 380 deaths per million people; and Texas has just over 11,000 deaths, though its population is 50 percent larger than New York and has many more recorded cases of COVID-19 – 577,537 cases in Texas versus 430,885 cases in New York. Florida’s COVID-19 death rate is 480 deaths per million; with total deaths of 10,325 and a population slightly larger than New York.

Department of Justice Requesting Data From Governors of States that Issued COVID-19 Orders that May Have Resulted in Deaths of Elderly Nursing Home Residents | OPA | Department of Justice

 

[JAVO]

Individuals who have died with COVID-19, but not as a result of COVID-19 are included in the case counts for COVID-19 deaths in Toronto.

https://twitter.com/TOPublicHealth/status/1275888390060285967

 

[Red Herring]

I just read that after seeing the dead bodies pile up in New York and New Jersey in April the Atlantic Bridge (a German-American friendship organizations) convinced the German government to gift ventilators worth 1.5 million Euros. It was meant as a sign of solidarity and a thank you for the candy bombers supplying Berlin during the airlift.
The governors of NY and NJ gratefully accepted and already started looking into which hospitals were to receive the ventilators when all of a sudden in early May the White House decided that "America already has enough ventilators, we don't need them. Thanks and Bye!" (I'm paraphrasing but that Was the reason given for rejecting the gift).

Okaaay?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Current numbers.
India is evidently the worst place on the map. But it would be interesting to see what would happen if it had testing per capita even as Brazil.


Worldometer

 

[Jaguar]

How Does Testing in the U.S. Compare to Other Countries? - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

 

[SD45T-2]

India +76 800


Evidently a today's record among all countries of the world.
In the the incoming days they should even pass 78 000 a day. If memory serves me well that is the largest daily gain of cases any country had since the start of the pandemic.

Brazil's had some rough days lately. It looks like a couple days ago they had 87,000 and a couple weeks before that a day with 92,000. Brazil seems to be getting hit pretty hard generally. And I keep thinking of Jair Bolsonaro as Hair Bolsonaro.

https://twitter.com/TOPublicHealth/status/1275888390060285967

Well that sounds crappy.

 

[Jonny]

Texas will never reach 543 deaths/million like Illinois. It has nothing to do with wearing masks; it has everything to do with nursing home policies and treatment policies (using hydroxychloroquine and zinc early in the treatment process).

Can we carve this is stone please? I want it to be remembered forever.

 

[Jaguar]

Executive Summary

In an effort to learn for the future from the data now available from the earliest days of the first in a century pandemic that swept across the globe and into the United States, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) conducted an in-depth analysis of self-reported nursing home data that finds that COVID-19 fatalities in nursing homes were related to infected nursing home staff. The NYSDOH analysis found:

• The timing of staff infections correlates with the timing of peak nursing home resident mortality across the state
• Nursing home employee infections were related to the most impacted regions in the state
• Peak nursing home admissions occurred a week after peak nursing home mortality, therefore illustrating that nursing home admissions from hospitals were not a driver of nursing home infections or fatalities
• Most patients admitted to nursing homes from hospitals were no longer contagious when admitted and therefore were not a source of infection
• Nursing home quality was not a factor in nursing home fatalities.

According to data submitted by nursing homes, in many cases under the penalty of perjury, approximately 37,500 nursing home staff members—one in four of the state’s approximately 158,000 nursing home workers—were infected with COVID-19 between March and early June 2020. Of the 37,500 nursing home staff infected, nearly 7,000 of them were working in facilities in the month of March; during the same period, more than a third of the state’s nursing home facilities had residents ill with the virus. Roughly 20,000 infected nursing home workers were known to be COVID-positive by the end of the month of April. These workforce infections are reflective of the larger geographic impact of the virus’s presence across the state.

NYSDOH further analyzed the timing of the COVID-positive staff infections and the timing of nursing home deaths. Based on published data, the average length of time between nursing home staff reported COVID-19 symptoms on March 16, 2020—23 days prior to the date of the peak nursing home fatalities, which occurred on April 8, 2020. It is likely that thousands of employees who were infected in mid-March transmitted the virus unknowingly—through no fault of their own—while working, which then led to resident infection.

NYSDOH also examined the potential impact of the NYSDOH’s March 25, 2020 admission policy. A survey conducted by NYSDOH shows that approximately 6,326 COVID-positive residents were admitted to facilities between March 25, 2020 and May 8, 2020; this finding is supported by an independent analysis done by the Associated Press on May 22, 2020 A causal link between the admission policy and infections/fatalities would be supported through a direct link in timing between the two, meaning that if admission of patients into nursing homes caused infection—and by extension mortality— the time interval between the admission and mortality curves would be consistent with the expected interval between infection and death. However, the peak date COVID-positive residents entered nursing homes occurred on April 14, 2020, a week after peak mortality in New York’s nursing homes occurred on April 8, 2020. If admissions were driving fatalities, the order of the peak fatalities and peak admissions would have been reversed.

NYSDOH further analyzed the period of time patients stayed in hospitals prior to admission to nursing home facilities. Preliminary data show that residents were admitted to nursing homes a median of 9 days after hospital admission. Health experts believe that individuals infected with the virus are most infectious 2 days before symptoms appear and that they are likely no longer infectious 9 days after symptom onset – thus, by the time these patients were admitted to a nursing home after their hospital stay, they were no longer contagious.

NYSDOH also considered the impact of visitation into nursing homes as a cause of infections. A review shows that prior to nursing home visitation being suspended completely on March 13, 2020, there was no tracking or testing of family and friends who were present in the facility, and any asymptomatic or symptomatic visitor could have been granted access. Given what we now know about how widespread the virus was in New York prior to testing availability in February and early March, there is a high likelihood that COVID-positive visitors entered nursing homes, although there is no specific data to support this assumption, and so ultimately this is inconclusive.

Factors Associated with Nursing Home Infections and Fatalities in New York State During the COVID-19 Global Health Crisis
https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2020/docs/nh_factors_report.pdf



Do your homework before making unsubstantiated claims and politicizing the deaths of others for your own personal agenda.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Anti-corona restrictions protesters try to storm German parliament

 

[Tellenbach]

We're already past, way, way past the point where any benefit from closing the economy is dwarfed by the deaths and ruined lives of people who are suffering as a result of the shutdowns. Look at Sweden. Their only mistake was in failing to protect the elderly in assisted care facilities.

The idea of shutting down the economy until we get a vaccine is stupid because that vaccine might never be available. You're going to shut down all restaurants and hair salons until next year? Governors Cuomo and Newsom are killing thousands of people and ruining millions of lives with their policy right now.

 

[Virtual ghost]

We're already past, way, way past the point where any benefit from closing the economy is dwarfed by the deaths and ruined lives of people who are suffering as a result of the shutdowns. Look at Sweden. Their only mistake was in failing to protect the elderly in assisted care facilities.

The idea of shutting down the economy until we get a vaccine is stupid because that vaccine might never be available. You're going to shut down all restaurants and hair salons until next year? Governors Cuomo and Newsom are killing thousands of people and ruining millions of lives with their policy right now.

I am sorry but this simply wrong.



First of all the lockdowns had to happen globally for a single reason. Which is that global production of masks, hand sanitizers, protective equipment etc. was completely out of touch with global demand as the pandemic started to grow all over the map. Therefore most systems had to be stopped until these two sides are balanced out. Since that is foundation that you can have any sustainable economic activity if you don't want to have hospitals completely overrun. Therefore if a small group of wealthy people known as Sweden decides to play differently they can get away with it. But this simply wasn't sustainable approach globally. Plus Sweden is basically Alaska style territory and life there is "social distancing" heavy by default. But this didn't work that well for them since they have multiples more deaths per capita than some of their neighbors that took more "conventional" approach. Plus those neighbors put them into isolation as the whole country due to bad pandemic situation. Actually towards worldometer their deaths per capita are somewhat larger than US. In deaths per capita they seem to be 9th country out of 200 of them, not exactly stellar. While in the case that they don't have healthcare as a human right the numbers would probably be much worse than this.

 

[Tellenbach]

Actually towards worldometer their deaths per capita are somewhat larger than US.

You're only counting deaths from Covid-19; you are not counting the deaths (increased suicides) and lives ruined from the shutdown. In addition, Sweden's pretty much done with this virus; we're still suffering from it. The only mistake that Sweden made was not protecting their elderly population. Their deaths per capita could've been much lower as well if they recommended taking zinc/vitamins d and C.

The strategy should've been to quickly and safely achieve herd immunity and protect the elderly. The government in the USA has failed at every level; those idiots should never ever be in a position to dictate public health policy again. FIRE FAUCI and Birx now!

 

[Jaguar]

You're going to shut down all restaurants and hair salons until next year?

Hair salons. Now there's a priority. Keeping people alive and free of infection is the goal. Not getting your hair done.

 

[FemMecha]

I do have sympathies for people whose livelihood is placed at risk for shut-downs. My music studio has been cut in half, so i'm kinda surviving, but will likely go into debt. I try to see this in pragmatic ways. If a business can be conducted without physical interaction, then it should. Any business that can be run online or with a drive-through window, online education especially middle school, high school, and college, should continue to be done that way. Businesses that require physical interaction should be allowed to operate, but people should have the decency to put as many precautions in place as possible with masks, air filtrations systems using UV light, one customer inside at a time sort of procedures.

I see the primary issue is the people throwing tantrums, spitting in faces, threatening violence if told to wear a mask. I think businesses should remain as open as possible, but with as many precautions as possible. People who feel unsafe should not be cut-off from unemployment.

There is generally a lack of a spirit of cooperation, and instead there is constant combativeness which is going to get a bunch of people maimed and killed.

 

[Tellenbach]

Keeping people alive and free of infection is the goal.

This shutdown is killing people. The goal is to balance the damage caused by the virus vs the damage caused by shutting down businesses. I'm not sure what you have against the millions of people who make a living in hair salons; they have bills they have to pay as well. I've seen no scientific evidence that hair salon workers are spreading the virus more than any other profession.

Two hairstylists who had coronavirus saw 140 clients. No new infections have been linked to the salon, officials say

Of the 140 clients and seven co-workers potentially exposed, 46 took tests that came back negative. All the others were quarantined for the duration of the coronavirus incubation period. The 14-day incubation period has now passed with no coronavirus cases linked to the salon beyond the two stylists, county health officials said.

For most people under 55 with no underlying conditions, this is less dangerous than the cold or flu. What we're witnessing is mass hysteria.

 

[Jaguar]

I'm not sure what you have against the millions of people who make a living in hair salons; they have bills they have to pay as well.

Like any business you can sell it and do something else to make a living. No one is holding a gun to their head. Also, you might want to do your homework on that figure.

 

[FemMecha]

This shutdown is killing people. The goal is to balance the damage caused by the virus vs the damage caused by shutting down businesses. I'm not sure what you have against the millions of people who make a living in hair salons; they have bills they have to pay as well. I've seen no scientific evidence that hair salon workers are spreading the virus more than any other profession.

Two hairstylists who had coronavirus saw 140 clients. No new infections have been linked to the salon, officials say



For most people under 55 with no underlying conditions, this is less dangerous than the cold or flu. What we're witnessing is mass hysteria.

I share your sympathies for professions most impacted by the virus, but think it is a mistake to call this the common cold. It sometimes causes massive blood clotting and death in younger people if they get a high viral load. It is quite different from the common cold and much more similar to other coronaviruses like Feline Infectious Peritonitus which causes respiratory issues and/or organ failure. The symptoms for that animal version of it are quite similar to this novel coronavirus.

The virus is serious. The damage to professions and the economic ramifications are serious. It is a big mistake to become dismissive of one to promote the needs of the other. Both are serious and will cause an increase in death and health issues.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In normal developed countries governments give people money to survive through the lockdown, which can't really last more than 2 or perhaps 3 months. But there is no need for longer lockdown if you do it right. Lockdown is simply quite effective way of bringing down the number of cases quickly if it is done right. However organizing lockdown without giving people money for survival is insane. Plus it will almost surely cause failure of the lockdown since people will try to find ways how to get money. What is directly undoing the whole point of a lockdown.