I had made this post about two weeks ago in one of the INs forums. I didnt posted here because it would be redundant to a lot of stuff that [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] said, but it seems that it is still worth to reinforce:
I have an Portuguese video explaining how the Corona is handled into a more rational form.. And another one explaining how the future and measures for 1-2 years (in time for vaccine or at least decent treatment). But it has no subtitles or anything like that so I will do a short resume.
As the guy mentioned in the video, there is a transmission rate (calculated with 7-13 days of delay). Through the lockdown, it is expected to have the transmission below one (in another typology forum, it seems that Germany had arrived at that, there should be other few countries), the virus population (Im talking about the virus itself) starts to rapidly decrease. Since there is a delay, when the deaths achieve a somewhat good re-transmission rate, the case is under control, the infected population gets by to be a minority, and, with several measures, the economy re-opens. When that happens, the cases are kept monitored (and must wisely), and, if the transmission rate gets significantly higher again, the economy shuts down. With some estimates, it has been said that a 2-month window of open with 1-2 months of quarantine (depending on the quarantine and if it is a decent one), combined, can give a good relief to the [inefficient] economy while minimizing the death rate. However, the quarantine that I mentioned before must be a real and tough, not one with people protesting and going out there for the tiniest reasons. The higher the number of people leaving their homes, doing dumb protests, and etc... the higher the transmission rate gets. The better people collaborate, lower the transmission rate. Higher testing means higher control, more accuracy that helps driving proper action. And the sooner the government acts and tests, the sooner people will go out of quarantine, because sooner will be the drop of transmission rate (and the transmission rate will start dropping from lower values). If people start "resisting", not only there will be death, but also when they finally gets the quarantine when things starts to be unfeasible (which happens due to a combo due to health system being full, or, rather, public health system going full and more than half of the population with the virus, people getting sick), this new quarantine will be longer and it can gets stupid longer. The first quarantine relates a lot to speed reaction (and in the US, it seems quite slow); An early reaction means, again, dealing with a transmission rate that it is already low, that will get down faster, and with a very low number of cases; With that, combined with lots of tests, proper control is achieved and quarantine can be quick. In the opposite instance, a very late reaction is dealing with a transmission rate that will be quite high, with already a good number of people already infected, means that for the transmission rate and number of cases to drop it will take a longer time. So, people will be forced into quarantine for months in that scenario, until stability is reached. Even some brazillian economists are already (and US should have some of these probably) agreeing with quarantine. The economy might not support a health collapse, combining with lots of people dying. More deaths equal less costumers, and some areas that re-opens will still have lower sales while keeping their costs, which will turn bad for business in long terms, specially when they have to face either a long quarantine or a deep crisis of deaths and lack of tombs that can gets itself two years. Without counting that, even if there is a vaccine or treatment, that could cost a high amount of money and it can become unfeasible to apply both (with some people literally needing both) for more than a half of the population.
Places where cases are lower should be re-opened sooner than the ones in a worse condition, however, just doing quarantine in some states is relatively inefficient, even cities. In this "globalized" world, in 21th century, one city can hardly survive on its own without trade (unless given time to get ready for that); If a city can survive without any intercity transit - cars, trucks coming for food, petrol, etc.., same for airplanes - then the city can reopens but thats incredible unrealistic in these days. A city that is surrounded and dependable of an uncontrolled scenario will become uncontrolled in a matter of time. Trucks, freights, etc... will come from people from uncontrolled states and carrying cargo from uncontrolled states, and these will, in imminent term, carry the virus with them. Just for an idea, even native people from Amazon (indians), think small traditional villages, with relatively low contact with city folks, already started catching Corona Virus (I suspect it could be Fake News, but it wont be in a matter of few weeks).
The natural "immunity" thing is already been putting at the steak, since things can get serious. Some parents of COVID (sorry for not mentioning sources, I really should but Im already been to long and giving too much time writing this) gets a immunity of 1-2 years. Another problem is the mutation problem, it seems (I think there are studys on that but they are still on early stage) that the virus is already mutating, and the virus genetic is already changing, in a way that the new versions can simply need a new immunity. It is known that some people can get back the virus again, still. In short terms, perhaps only 0.5-1.5% of the population dies (that is 3-6 million for US). However, these numbers are a calculation considering that a person who catch it one time wont catch it again AND that health care system is doing fine. But with the play of mutation, and considering that people can get it again, that rate in long term can increases to 2-3% (2 times in 2 years). With full hospitals, which for some developed countries (such as nordic ones) is not a problem, that rate can get to 3-4%. These deaths must be combined with deaths that already occurs naturally, and you will just find lots of people dying.
Liking or not, the economy and monster market will have to deal with the virus, in one way or another. If it is the optimal way as advised by some experts (at least in Brazil, you should have your own virologists and economists stating something similar), or if it will be handled in an unintelligent way to "save the economy", or, rather, save the short terms profit and save the old inefficient economy system (as I provided why it is inefficient pages ago). Some countries are already giving up neoliberalism, even here it is coming down. It might be a monster that gets back in some years in the future, but any nation that buys it now and let the market handle it is doomed and most countries knows that. If debt disables the state, then in long terms everything will be, eventually, disabled. Unless, of course, if the rich people does charity, and guess what, they havent been doing and they wont likely do it. Then a state will need to arise and confront this, measures will be needed to be taken. The more stubborn the country with recognizing and adapting to the storm, worse will be for the boat.
Just as a reinforcement, this also deals with something that is under-rated but stupidly important thing called "trust". DO you think people are going to trust in each other, government and institutions with generalized death? No, they wont. That might have a deep impact, it can raises corruption in long term, and with that, well, many things will drop. Either a corrupted state or a corrupted market or both fails most of time.
This is the shortest I could explain. I am still being somewhat superficial, and I dont have enough knowledge to be super deep. We are talking about a subject that could take a whole book to be deeply handed.
