Coronavirus

[Virtual ghost]

I think COVID19 tunnel vision is the wrong perspective, and until I see any sign that people are actually weighing factors other than blindly and obediently supporting lock-downs I am honor bound to not relent in encouraging people to think more.

And what was going on with the virus before the lockdown ? Why do you think it will be different this time ? It isn't that this wasn't tried before the lockdown.

Plus if you don't have professional medical knowledge or at least general scientific knowledge all this thinking will probably mean very little in the terms of the quality of the conclusion.



I am simply trying to show you that there are no real tunnel visions here and that the lockdown has certain logic behind it.

 

[anticlimatic]

I am simply trying to show you that there are no real tunnel visions here and that the lockdown has certain logic behind it.

Everyone is well aware of the lockdown logic. What they are less aware of is the collateral damage it has caused and will cause, and that damage needs to be accurately viewed and assessed so that it can be compared to other approaches- like encouraged but not mandatory social distancing. With a death rate of < 1% likely it seems at least prudent to compare that to damages incurred by sinking the entire economy. Government would love to keep its emergency status power forever, so it is important that people push back on that.

 

[ceecee]

And what was going on with the virus before the lockdown ? Why do you think it will be different this time ? It isn't that this wasn't tried before the lockdown.

Plus if you don't have professional medical knowledge or at least general scientific knowledge all this thinking will probably mean very little in the terms of the quality of the conclusion.



I am simply trying to show you that there are no real tunnel visions here and that the lockdown has certain logic behind it.

This doesn't fit their narrative. Push back on govt. emergency status power during a pandemic? No problem. Push back on real govt. power over illegal surveillance, threats of suspension of habeus corpus or renewal of the Patriot Act? Fuck no. Honor bound? lol And the only collateral damage they can imagine is when it happens to themselves.

 

[Jonny]

Is this fun?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Everyone is well aware of the lockdown logic. What they are less aware of is the collateral damage it has caused and will cause, and that damage needs to be accurately viewed and assessed so that it can be compared to other approaches- like encouraged but not mandatory social distancing. With a death rate of < 1% likely it seems at least prudent to compare that to damages incurred by sinking the entire economy. Government would love to keep its emergency status power forever, so it is important that people push back on that.

First, do you think someone like Trump would have agreed in any degree to something like this in election year if there were any alternatives ?



Second, from closed Covid19 cases in US I see that there are 68 000 deaths, while 174 000 people recovered. What is death rate far above the 1% you are talking even if we presume there is plenty of undetected cases out there. Once you overwhelm the healthcare system the mortality shoots up drastically and economic recovery becomes even more distant, even if we don't count the dead that will be missing in their skill and knowledge. This is especially because overwhelmed healthcare system is chaotic and then medical staff also gets sick and the system spreads the disease before it crashes. Currently there are almost a million registered cases in US and if we presume that is only a half or a third of all positive people in no time you will be in 20 million cases zone without lockdown. However then there is no going back since even new lockdown would spill all the time due to shopping for food or something trivial like that. While with lockdown you are at least saving people that will be able to rebuild later. This has no pretty solution for now.



That is why it is a shame why you didn't do a proper full scale lockdown from the start, but instead you have wasted time, money and nerves on half-measures that aren't real lockdown. Which you will almost surely have to do sooner or later. Since that is the only way how to solve the problem of getting new cases and thus ending the pandemic chain (because the cure seems to be far away). Just today two 2 countries neighboring mine reported zero new cases and mine is in single digits, which is because we pressed lockdown to the max and powered through this. So now we can start fixing economy. However any premature getting out of lockdown is basically postponing the economic recovery, since that only resets the problem (especially in big cities that are plentiful in US).

 

[Maou]

Is this fun?

Thanks for proving that Liberals cannot meme lol. This is how you do it.

 

[Jonny]

Thanks for proving that Liberals cannot meme lol. This is how you do it.

Or, maybe...just maybe...you don't think it's good because you look at "your side" with nuance, whereas you look at liberals without such nuance and therefore find it funnier when they're mischaracterized.

The Right Can't Meme

All this meme stuff is just fucking garbage. It helps stupid people think that they're smart and that "the others" are hypocritical and dumb.

 

[anticlimatic]

First, do you think someone like Trump would have agreed in any degree to something like this in election year if there were any alternatives ?



Second, from closed Covid19 cases in US I see that there are 68 000 deaths, while 174 000 people recovered. What is death rate far above the 1% you are talking even if we presume there is plenty of undetected cases out there. Once you overwhelm the healthcare system the mortality shoots up drastically and economic recovery becomes even more distant, even if we don't count the dead that will be missing in their skill and knowledge. This is especially because overwhelmed healthcare system is chaotic and then medical staff also gets sick and the system spreads the disease before it crashes. Currently there are almost a million registered cases in US and if we presume that is only a half or a third of all positive people in no time you will be in 20 million cases zone without lockdown. However then there is no going back since even new lockdown would spill all the time due to shopping for food or something trivial like that. While with lockdown you are at least saving people that will be able to rebuild later. This has no pretty solution for now.



That is why it is a shame why you didn't do a proper full scale lockdown from the start, but instead you have wasted time, money and nerves on half-measures that aren't real lockdown. Which you will almost surely have to do sooner or later. Since that is the only way how to solve the problem of getting new cases and thus ending the pandemic chain (because the cure seems to be far away). Just today two 2 countries neighboring mine reported zero new cases and mine is in single digits, which is because we pressed lockdown to the max and powered through this. So now we can start fixing economy. However any premature getting out of lockdown is basically postponing the economic recovery, since that only resets the problem (especially in big cities that are plentiful in US).

That is excellent news for yours and neighboring countries. Our states, which are more similar to most other countries than the US as a whole, vary tremendously. It is more complex. State governers are the ones with authority and responsibility regarding the epidemic. The federal government can only support them with supplies and offer general guidelines to follow (obviously there is much more to each branch and their relationship, but this is the primary function at present). So when discussing the US response, it's important to think of it less as a single unit, and more a collection of units doing slightly different things. What happened to New York clearly didn't happen to Montana, so when and how New York can begin focusing on its economy should not be when Montana gets to as well.

I don't have anything close to what I consider sufficient data on this issue to make any judgments, even hindsight ones, and I tend to look at anyone who does (without resentment or malice) as fools. We have variable COVID19 models, but not much in the way of variable economic lockdown models, or variable lockdown mental/physical health collateral damage models- in addition to the negative impacts inherit simply to economic downturns. There is a gaping void of data in the area in which we currently need it. Even spending the entirety of our focus and investigative efforts on COVID19 alone has so far yielded a fraction of the data we need on the virus. The time we are currently spending on acquiring the data we needed yesterday may be outpaced by the ultimate cost of that time.

If you're working on an electrical system it might be safer to shut it down before operating on a problem, but shutting it down can cool older solder lugs on circuit boards not used to not being run, and end up costing you more than the possibility of a little zap. If you're working on an automobile and take too long to get it back on the road, oxidation on static components that are used to moving can fuse metals together which will then break once restarted. If you drain a water system and allow it to dry out completely, any rubber seal in the system will have a chance of drying out and splitting, causing a leak once turned back on- some of which, if hidden in walls, can wreak incredible damage. National economies, especially the US, are much more complicated systems than those- but the isometric pattern in systems, of unexpected damage that often exceeds the immediate benefit of shutting an entire system down, is worth concern. My brothers and I, who I work with, call this the "don't touch it" rule: The less you can disturb a system you are trying to fix, the more effective you will ultimately be at restoring it.

 

[ceecee]

Or, maybe...just maybe...you don't think it's good because you look at "your side" with nuance, whereas you look at liberals without such nuance and therefore find it funnier when they're mischaracterized.

The Right Can't Meme

All this meme stuff is just fucking garbage. It helps stupid people think that they're smart and that "the others" are hypocritical and dumb.

But it is the key to right's existence.

I use to think this was so imbecilic it couldn't be the case, but it is. Reddit, 4chan, Twitter....it's like THE language of most conservatives and all of MAGA. Because they can't frame their ideas in a coherent fashion verbally and the majority of people don't share their views - memes are all they have. It's also why there are no conservative funny people/comedians but that's another conversation.

 

[Maou]

Or, maybe...just maybe...you don't think it's good because you look at "your side" with nuance, whereas you look at liberals without such nuance and therefore find it funnier when they're mischaracterized.

The Right Can'''t Meme

All this meme stuff is just fucking garbage. It helps stupid people think that they're smart and that "the others" are hypocritical and dumb.

No, I look at Liberal memes and notice the insanely low hanging fruit, low effort, bland and inconsequential statements that are just self-reinforcing their own beliefs. They are not funny, because way too many Liberals take everything way too seriously, and are too afraid to offend anyone to be even slightly provocative against anything but the outgroup, and they paint them as cartoonish, instead of being realistic. Hell, I bet you I can find memes on 4chan, that are ironic lefty shitposting that are a 1000 times more funnier than any of the crap the Left makes.

Just comparing our two memes, portrays this dynamic. My meme shows the Left protesting against bank bailouts. Then shows them being funded by the very banks they hated originally. This really makes you think, and you laugh because it's sad. Your comic, is just hyper exaggerated stereotypes and vitriol. It sends no message, and cherry picks. It doesn't even use a real life example, to make it more believable. How is this funny? Its just some Liberal patting themselves on the back saying "Yeah, fuck Conservatives." It is solipsistic, and doesn't inspire deeper thought.

 

[Jonny]

No, I look at Liberal memes and notice the insanely low hanging fruit, low effort, bland and inconsequential statements that are just self-reinforcing their own beliefs. They are not funny, because way too many Liberals take everything way too seriously, and are too afraid to offend anyone to be even slightly provocative against anything but the outgroup, and they paint them as cartoonish, instead of being realistic. Hell, I bet you I can find memes on 4chan, that are ironic lefty shitposting that are a 1000 times more funnier than any of the crap the Left makes.

Just comparing our two memes, portrays this dynamic. My meme shows the Left protesting against bank bailouts. Then shows them being funded by the very banks they hated originally. This really makes you think, and you laugh because it's sad. Your comic, is just hyper exaggerated stereotypes and vitriol. It sends no message, and cherry picks. It doesn't even use a real life example, to make it more believable. How is this funny? Its just some Liberal patting themselves on the back saying "Yeah, fuck Conservatives." It is solipsistic, and doesn't inspire deeper thought.

You're delusional, and your behavior is part of the problem. That you don't see it, despite the evidence in this very post of yours, beggars belief.

You know what's especially sad? I decided to read some posts of yours to get some context for you as a human being, rather than as a political operator. I wanted to understand you better because I didn't like the imagine of you I've constructed from these threads. I saw your post about your struggles with obesity, and I thought to myself "Oh, I can relate to this." So I decided to post in that thread to offer you some advice. It was an olive branch to try to bridge the divide between us. Crickets.

And yet here you are, "memeing" and pontificating on why your memes are funny and nuanced and intellectual but "the left's" meme's are low hanging fruit and cherry-picked. You then, unironically, use one example to prove your point, as though that isn't basically cherry picking. Why don't you spend your time improving your life instead of drinking and thinking about how you're somehow superior.

 

[Maou]

You're delusional, and your behavior is part of the problem. That you don't see it, despite the evidence in this very post of yours, beggars belief.

You know what's especially sad? I decided to read some posts of yours to get some context for you as a human being, rather than as a political operator. I wanted to understand you better because I didn't like the imagine of you I've constructed from these threads. I saw your post about your struggles with obesity, and I thought to myself "Oh, I can relate to this." So I decided to post in that thread to offer you some advice. It was an olive branch to try to bridge the divide between us. Crickets.

And yet here you are, "memeing" and pontificating on why your memes are funny and nuanced and intellectual but "the left's" meme's are low hanging fruit and cherry picked. You then, ironically, use one example to prove your point, as though that isn't basically cherry picking. Why don't you spend your time improving your life instead of drinking and thinking about how you're somehow superior.

Lmao, you started it by quoting me and asking me if your meme was funny. Don't get mad at me. You could have walked away after the initial exchange. I have a hard time not walking away, because that is just who I am. I know it is an issue. It is like, I can't just ween myself off of something. I have to quit cold turkey, or it won't work. I have been trying to avoid the politics section, because its bad for me.

Also about your post in the health thread. I've actually been busy, and this is my first day off at home this weekend. Which is why I am posting here right now. I did read your post the other day, I just didn't reply. Because my answer was already stated in the thread technically. I didn't feel like reiterating it again, while I was at work (long posts on mobile is annoying). Then I forgot about it. But I did take your advice about stricter calorie counting since Friday. The thing about using the calculator, is that myfitnesspal usually tells me to eat way more than I need. I also got a fitbit now, and am planning to do my bi-weekly 2 hour swim sessions again once the pool opens. My mother is already trying to get me back to the gym, but with the pandemic it is difficult. We will do at home training instead.

 

[Jonny]

Lmao, you started it by quoting me and asking me if your meme was funny. Don't get mad at me. You could have walked away after the initial exchange. I have a hard time not walking away, because that is just who I am. I know it is an issue. It is like, I can't just ween myself off of something. I have to quit cold turkey, or it won't work. I have been trying to avoid the politics section, because its bad for me.

Jesus, you missed the point entirely. It isn't my meme. It's a meme that is a mirror image of the memes you post. That you wouldn't find it funny was the point. Namely that, as you so astutely point out, memes "...are insanely low hanging fruit, low effort, bland and inconsequential statements that are just self-reinforcing their own beliefs. They are not funny."

As for your "retort" meme, it isn't funny for the same reasons. First, those are two different groups of people in each photo. Second, that J.P. Morgan sponsored a float for, I guess, a Pride parade and got some people who wear rainbow attire and sit on it isn't even remotely comparable to the Occupy Wallstreet protests. I could go on.

 

[Vendrah]

If you're working on an electrical system it might be safer to shut it down before operating on a problem, but shutting it down can cool older solder lugs on circuit boards not used to not being run, and end up costing you more than the possibility of a little zap. If you're working on an automobile and take too long to get it back on the road, oxidation on static components that are used to moving can fuse metals together which will then break once restarted. If you drain a water system and allow it to dry out completely, any rubber seal in the system will have a chance of drying out and splitting, causing a leak once turned back on- some of which, if hidden in walls, can wreak incredible damage. National economies, especially the US, are much more complicated systems than those- but the isometric pattern in systems, of unexpected damage that often exceeds the immediate benefit of shutting an entire system down, is worth concern. My brothers and I, who I work with, call this the "don't touch it" rule: The less you can disturb a system you are trying to fix, the more effective you will ultimately be at restoring it.

If you were to apply the neoliberalism rule into any machine, then there is no point of doing maintenance in anything at all. Or perhaps if we were to never touch anything electric, we shouldnt do any electric or electronic devices at all and rather let nature have in its "natural" form. It is a logic that ends up in the stone age if you run it further.

I would had more points but I rather let [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] do the talking.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That is excellent news for yours and neighboring countries. Our states, which are more similar to most other countries than the US as a whole, vary tremendously. It is more complex. State governers are the ones with authority and responsibility regarding the epidemic. The federal government can only support them with supplies and offer general guidelines to follow (obviously there is much more to each branch and their relationship, but this is the primary function at present). So when discussing the US response, it's important to think of it less as a single unit, and more a collection of units doing slightly different things. What happened to New York clearly didn't happen to Montana, so when and how New York can begin focusing on its economy should not be when Montana gets to as well.

I don't have anything close to what I consider sufficient data on this issue to make any judgments, even hindsight ones, and I tend to look at anyone who does (without resentment or malice) as fools. We have variable COVID19 models, but not much in the way of variable economic lockdown models, or variable lockdown mental/physical health collateral damage models- in addition to the negative impacts inherit simply to economic downturns. There is a gaping void of data in the area in which we currently need it. Even spending the entirety of our focus and investigative efforts on COVID19 alone has so far yielded a fraction of the data we need on the virus. The time we are currently spending on acquiring the data we needed yesterday may be outpaced by the ultimate cost of that time.

If you're working on an electrical system it might be safer to shut it down before operating on a problem, but shutting it down can cool older solder lugs on circuit boards not used to not being run, and end up costing you more than the possibility of a little zap. If you're working on an automobile and take too long to get it back on the road, oxidation on static components that are used to moving can fuse metals together which will then break once restarted. If you drain a water system and allow it to dry out completely, any rubber seal in the system will have a chance of drying out and splitting, causing a leak once turned back on- some of which, if hidden in walls, can wreak incredible damage. National economies, especially the US, are much more complicated systems than those- but the isometric pattern in systems, of unexpected damage that often exceeds the immediate benefit of shutting an entire system down, is worth concern. My brothers and I, who I work with, call this the "don't touch it" rule: The less you can disturb a system you are trying to fix, the more effective you will ultimately be at restoring it.

I am not sure about that bolded part, especially since what you are proposing is direct disturbance on the process that from empirical data works if pressed hard enough. What is the main problem, the implementation isn't going far enough. Yes, this is shock-therapy but is it medically sound argument that shows results.


On the other hand my country is divided into 20 regions plus Capital (similar to US). Each of this regions has its own local HQ for the pandemic that is linked to the central one but they coordinate local efforts and resources. Plus they have deployed somewhat different strategies around the country since conditions and resources aren't the same in all places. While each region has it's own "mini-president" and "mini parliament". So the idea that we are here dealing with fundamentally different governing systems is wrong. After all key factor in making this country independent from our ex socialist federal government was our diaspora in US and due to this strong political link our government has many governing principles copy-pasted from US (which are often fairly universal if you want working democracy). However the difference is that we stick much more together and respect opinions of the experts more. Therefore I think this wouldn't be bad approach in the US as well.



Btw. here is the map so that it doesn't look as if I am making this up.

When I think of it I will even throw in the blue-red map of how the counties voted in presidential elections.

Therefore if that worked here there is no real reason that it can't work in the US also if the mindset and details can be adjusted more at the problem at hand. Surrendering your people in mass to the virus simply wouldn't help you even on the short run. Especially since curing a mass of people costs plenty regardless of private/public medical system. Can the majority in this mess make enough to pay for the potential treatment or potential spreading of the problem and the new lockdown ? That will start in even worse pandemic expansion point then the first one, since it doesn't start from zero cases.

 

[Jaguar]

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[Vendrah]

Opinion | She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next? - The New York Times

 

[anticlimatic]

the idea that we are here dealing with fundamentally different governing systems is wrong

Croatia is 174 times smaller than the US. We have 50 states. That means on average, each of our 50 states is 3.48 times larger than your entire country. New York alone is twice the size of Croatia, with about 4 additional million people. Each of our states is divided into regions as well, each with several counties. Governing systems might not be that different on the state level, but the size and scope of the US is well beyond what you can conceive. Imagine if all of Europe were Croatia, populated completely with Croatians with completely open borders between what used to be countries. Then imagine that the entire economy of Europe was about twice the size it currently is, and everything that would depend on that. Then imagine that many of the people you know only live in Croatia in the summer, and have another house in Norway for the winter. Now you have a more accurate model of what you are dealing with when offering prescriptions to the United States.

The US is listening to experts, same as anyone else. We are just radically different from other countries, with states that are radically different from one another. Nobody is contesting your point that lock-downs are effective at flattening the curve. The entire motive behind ours was to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. It worked. Even New York was not overwhelmed. The question now is, where do we go from here? Because waiting around for the virus to completely die out when over a million people in this country currently have it will not be happening. There will need to be a lot of stopping and starting, adaptation, and new ways of doing things- which is ultimately what I think we will see.

 

[Maou]

Croatia is 174 times smaller than the US. We have 50 states. That means on average, each of our 50 states is 3.48 times larger than your entire country. New York alone is twice the size of Croatia, with about 4 additional million people. Each of our states is divided into regions as well, each with several counties. Governing systems might not be that different on the state level, but the size and scope of the US is well beyond what you can conceive. Imagine if all of Europe were Croatia, populated completely with Croatians with completely open borders between what used to be countries. Then imagine that the entire economy of Europe was about twice the size it currently is, and everything that would depend on that. Then imagine that many of the people you know only live in Croatia in the summer, and have another house in Norway for the winter. Now you have a more accurate model of what you are dealing with when offering prescriptions to the United States.

The US is listening to experts, same as anyone else. We are just radically different from other countries, with states that are radically different from one another. Nobody is contesting your point that lock-downs are effective at flattening the curve. The entire motive behind ours was to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. It worked. Even New York was not overwhelmed. The question now is, where do we go from here? Because waiting around for the virus to completely die out when over a million people in this country currently have it will not be happening. There will need to be a lot of stopping and starting, adaptation, and new ways of doing things- which is ultimately what I think we will see.

Yeah, I have never been fond of people saying america is "one giant country." Each state can be as diverse and different as any other country. We are a collection of smaller younger countries. It's what the EU wanted to do with Europe, and failed. I think part of America's success was the states grew up together like one giant family, and we are not forcing them to get along like they try to do in Europe, where each of the nations have been there for way way longer than USA. I had a good friend from Slovenia, and fucking Ohio is 5 times it's size. That blew my fucking mind, since it feels so fucking small. The state of California, as shitty as it is, has a higher GPD than fucking India and UK. Just to put that in perspective. Each state can make its own rules, and do its own things. Even defy the federal government (which most people don't realize), on a whim. It just depends on whether or not the Fed gives a fuck. For example, legalizing weed. IT is still illegal on a federal level, they just choose not to enforce it. I am also way more for state power, than federal power. The Federal government should only be concerned with national security imo.


I have personally lived in 4 different states for an extended period of time. I have experienced the state government functioning differently, by state. In things like priority of concern. For example, Idaho is notorious for DUI's, and their highway speeds are around 70 mph. You don't see speed traps in Idaho very often. It is because few people live there, and it isn't worth the resources. So you have a lot of speeding, and DUI. Instead, they invest their funding in preventing illegal poaching, drug trafficking, and national park protection. Where as in Ohio, they have so many speed traps and reduce the speed limits to a snail pace. They are just looking for reasons to pick on people here, for no good reason. Then the traffic cameras... boy those fucking things are a scam I'll tell you what. It is clear that the government only cares about nickle and dimeing people here. Though despite its flaws, and it being a shit hole. Ohio is still one of the most affordable places to live on the east side.

 

[Vendrah]

The entire motive behind ours was to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system. It worked. Even New York was not overwhelmed.

I am not quite sure if we can say "it worked" for the country with highest number Corona deaths of the world and the 10th or 11th out of 140 countries in deaths per million.
It is true that some countries are hiding data like Brazil (we could suspect even China in that department), but, even considering that, we cant really say that it really worked for the US. Reality doesn't really agree with that statement.

If the hospitals were not overwhelmed, than your country might consider the hospital accessibility (you know, if all hospitals are private & paid and poor or low-mid class cant get to the hospitals, than they might not be overwhelmed indeed) or even their own efficiency... Or if people are refusing to go to hospital and dying at home while they could go to hospital. Stuff like that.