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Coronavirus

highlander

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They're still good to have if you do get sick (including if you get some other virus like the flu), just use responsibly :).

Also, if you do get sick do not get in a car with someone else (coversely, do NOT get in a car with a sick person). Cars are one of the easiest and quickest ways to get sick/get someone else sick.

Also just in general, please don't get sick. I am concerned given you stated you have bad asthma.

Yeah, I travel for a living so it's a big concern. Am planning to stay home and work virtually which makes me feel like a hermit but better than the alternative. I'm traveling tomorrow and Friday but after that, I'm done. Have already turned down a trip to to Northern Italy for a meeting tomorrow and a meeting in Seattle Monday:shock:. What are the odds of that??

Got a really bad chest cold for weeks after driving in an Uber where the driver was coughing all over last year - so year agree with you there!!
 

Tennessee Jed

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Latest news:

The World Health Organization is now pegging the worldwide fatality rate for COVID-19 at 3.4 percent. That's compared to a fatality rate of 0.1% for the seasonal flu.

Of course, that number is going to vary from country to country over time. But still, it represents an increase from the previously assumed numbers.

Also, COVID-19 has a fatality rate of about 14 percent in sick and elderly patients, while among children and healthy adults the mortality rate is close to zero. (Compare that to the seasonal flu, which kills mostly children.)

That would seem to indicate that one only needs to sequester sick and elderly people to control the illness. But children and adults still catch the illness (albeit in a mild form) and become a vector for passing the illness to the elderly. Especially children, with their poor understanding of hygiene. Hence you pretty much have to close all schools and businesses in an area where the flu takes hold to keep it from being spread around to everyone in that area.

Anyway, here's a link (to Business Insider) for the latest announcement of mortality rates on the flu: Latest coronavirus global death rate is 3.4%, age a major factor - Business Insider
 

Lexicon

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Yeah, I travel for a living so it's a big concern. Am planning to stay home and work virtually which makes me feel like a hermit but better than the alternative. I'm traveling tomorrow and Friday but after that, I'm done. Have already turned down a trip to to Northern Italy for a meeting tomorrow and a meeting in Seattle Monday:shock:. What are the odds of that??

Got a really bad chest cold for weeks after driving in an Uber where the driver was coughing all over last year - so year agree with you there!!

It’s like that movie, Final Destination... :unsure:
 

Yuurei

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*Sigh* I live in ground zero and I am not very concerned.

I will tell you one thing; so tired of people concerned for me.

“ Well, you’re high risk” No, I’m fucking not. First of all, my kidneys don’t work. So? Kidneys don’t filter viruses dipshit.

Secondly, you say “ high risk” I say fucking indestructible. I’ve already survived shit that would kill others a dozen times. So fuck off with that shit.
 

Tennessee Jed

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Further to my previous post:

In the elderly, mortality rates go up quickly according to age group:
3.6% for age 60-69
8% for age 70-79
14.8% for age 80+

People who are 80+ are kind of living on borrowed time even at the best of times. So if a flu takes them out, it's not such a big deal. It just means a lot of business for the funeral homes all at one time.

If this virus takes off in the US, I'm only 63 and in pretty good shape overall. I'm not sweating it personally. If it's going to be a regular occurence in flu seasons over future years, it might even be preferable for me to get exposed to it now rather than later and start working up a natural immunity to it.

But I know a lot of elderly people who aren't in great health, including a couple in my own family. So I'm already figuring out which funerals I might or might not attend, and the excuses I might use in the latter cases. /morbid humor/
 

Lexicon

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*Sigh* I live in ground zero and I am not very concerned.

you say “ high risk” I say fucking indestructible. I’ve already survived shit that would kill others a dozen times. So fuck off with that shit.

 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Can I be a kangaroo man, like Ice-T?

source.gif


Fun fact: this was the first movie I watched with the woman I lost my virginity to. I wish we watched more movies like this. I think we were both at kind of a shitty time in our lives when we dated. I wonder what it would be like if we dated now. Oh well.
 

Tennessee Jed

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*Sigh* I live in ground zero and I am not very concerned.

I will tell you one thing; so tired of people concerned for me.

“ Well, you’re high risk” No, I’m fucking not. First of all, my kidneys don’t work. So? Kidneys don’t filter viruses dipshit.

Secondly, you say “ high risk” I say fucking indestructible. I’ve already survived shit that would kill others a dozen times. So fuck off with that shit.

From the little I've read, it seems like old folks with respiratory problems are at greatest risk. It seems to hit them in the lungs and give them pneumonia. For example, old people who smoke and have emphysema or whatever are particularly high-risk, from what I've read.

But in any case, stay safe. Wash your hands and all that.
 

Tennessee Jed

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By the way, the World Health Organization has some great up-to-date info on COVID-19. There's a section on basic personal protection measures for avoiding picking up the flu. Nothing really novel, but it walks you through the basics step-by-step. Link: Advice for public

Personal anecdote: I've been seeing a small influx of old white-haired folks at my local gym. Some are really ancient, not at all the type you would expect to see at a Gold's Gym. They're too old and slow-moving to do the cardio classes (spinning, Zumba, and all that), so they end up on the weight machines. I guess some oldsters are seeing the new flu as a reason to get in better shape. But I don't talk to them to ask them why they've joined. For those of us who are regulars at the gym, new people are a problem: They don't know what they are doing, and they get in the way and jam up the flow. They'll quit coming in a few weeks once the flu news dies down.

Meantime, I'm paranoid of coughing or even clearing my throat in public. People see an old guy cough or sniffle and they run for cover. On the other hand, it's a great way to clear some space around me when quarters are tight. :)
 

21%

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I'm surprised by how seemingly unprepared the US is about this. Europe's cases are exploding as we speak. Several countries have already said it's now not containable (Australia, UK) and they're now trying to delay it so as not to overload their health systems. And this rapid change of plans happened in the last 3 days or so. I'm not talking about people panic buying or about people worrying unnecessarily. But should health authorities be more preemptive, like cancel large gatherings?
 

ceecee

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I'm surprised by how seemingly unprepared the US is about this. Europe's cases are exploding as we speak. Several countries have already said it's now not containable (Australia, UK) and they're now trying to delay it so as not to overload their health systems. And this rapid change of plans happened in the last 3 days or so. I'm not talking about people panic buying or about people worrying unnecessarily. But should health authorities be more preemptive, like cancel large gatherings?

Really? When you have an administration that pulls shit like this....

Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?

Coronavirus in U.S.: Trump cut funding to CDC, other disease response efforts | Fortune

and then look at their responses to natural disasters and other catastrophes, I don't know how anyone could be surprised.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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By the way, the World Health Organization has some great up-to-date info on COVID-19. There's a section on basic personal protection measures for avoiding picking up the flu. Nothing really novel, but it walks you through the basics step-by-step. Link: Advice for public

Personal anecdote: I've been seeing a small influx of old white-haired folks at my local gym. Some are really ancient, not at all the type you would expect to see at a Gold's Gym. They're too old and slow-moving to do the cardio classes (spinning, Zumba, and all that), so they end up on the weight machines. I guess some oldsters are seeing the new flu as a reason to get in better shape. But I don't talk to them to ask them why they've joined. For those of us who are regulars at the gym, new people are a problem: They don't know what they are doing, and they get in the way and jam up the flow. They'll quit coming in a few weeks once the flu news dies down.

Meantime, I'm paranoid of coughing or even clearing my throat in public. People see an old guy cough or sniffle and they run for cover. On the other hand, it's a great way to clear some space around me when quarters are tight. :)

god I can't wait to be old
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Tennessee Jed

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I'm surprised by how seemingly unprepared the US is about this. Europe's cases are exploding as we speak. Several countries have already said it's now not containable (Australia, UK) and they're now trying to delay it so as not to overload their health systems. And this rapid change of plans happened in the last 3 days or so. I'm not talking about people panic buying or about people worrying unnecessarily. But should health authorities be more preemptive, like cancel large gatherings?

I think the authorities are starting to conclude that there's pretty much nothing to be done about it but let it run its course.

China is the only country where they've managed to slow down its progression. But that was at the cost of imposing draconian travel restrictions and locking down a large population center. And there's still the question of what happens when they remove the travel restrictions and let life go back to normal. There's every indication that the flu will resurge and go back to circulating full-strength again. The coronavirus is acting pretty much like the standard flu: Circulating pretty freely, going through multiple waves, and hitting a big chunk of the population.

So it's a bind. You can't just lock everyone down until the warm weather hits and the flu season ends. That will ruin the economy and result in massive shortages of consumer goods. And you'll still probably see the coronavirus return in full force again next flu season.

Comparing it to the standard flu: We all have a pretty good natural immunity to the standard flu from many years of exposure, so the standard flu is mostly just an annoyance. Whereas the coronavirus is a first-timer for everyone. So none of us have any natural immunity to the coronavirus.

Apparently the coronavirus is actually quite a mild flu for most healthy people. Many healthy people may not even realize that they've caught it. But it could take a harsh toll on the elderly and the infirm on the first wave through. (See my previous posts on that subject.) Subsequent years will presumably be less of a problem because everyone will pick up some immunity from that first exposure.

So that's the bind: Lock down the population centers to spare the elderly and the infirm, ruining the economy and causing massive shortages of everything, or admit that there's probably not much to be done about it and let nature take its course.

I'm basing all this, of course, on just a few articles that I've read. The authorities in various countries are still trying to see if there's any way they can buy some time with limited quarantines, bans on public gatherings, and other such measures. But no one has found a real good solution yet for taming this thing, as I understand it.

Again, this is all just what I've seen from a few articles on the subject, and it's still early in the game. Things may yet sort out differently from what I'm predicting. And I don't have any medical background, so others may know more about this than me.
 

Tennessee Jed

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I don't think Trump and Pence really have much influence on it one way or the other. I think it just comes down to the fact that there's not much anyone can really do about it. The authorities of various countries are trying different things, but no one has found a quick fix for this thing.

IOW, I think it goes beyond partisan politics and really comes down to difficult policy decisions. (See my previous post for the details.)
 

Maou

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The biggest problem is the test kits being faulty. Then the fact you can re-catch it, and there being two strains now. There is no realistic way anyone is going to stop this.

As for prepping, it males sense if you factor in the possibility of utilities being shut off due to a large portion of the work force being out of commission. You don't have to die to not come to work.

Also really sucks because my entire family lives in Wsshington. My brother goes to Seattle frequently. This means I have a large possibility of losing a family member this year.

Also, the CDC being un-funded is fake news. It never passed, and happened before Corona (landshark is better). Congress added funding to the CDC.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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I think I may have already had it. I never go to the doctor for stuff like the flu, it's really a waste of money and there isn't much they can do. I think it's been in the US longer than the authorities believe. I'm more worried about my kid's school being shut down for weeks or something of that nature. The potential effect of quarantines and shutdowns alarm me more than what the actual virus will do to people. As children are less likely to have fatal cases, I'm worried about what it means for adult staff at schools, daycares, etc. This could have a major negative effect and lead to personnel shortages if enough people have fatal reactions to the virus.
 

Tennessee Jed

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I think I may have already had it. I never go to the doctor for stuff like the flu, it's really a waste of money and there isn't much they can do. I think it's been in the US longer than the authorities believe. I'm more worried about my kid's school being shut down for weeks or something of that nature. The potential effect of quarantines and shutdowns alarm me more than what the actual virus will do to people. As children are less likely to have fatal cases, I'm worried about what it means for adult staff at schools, daycares, etc. This could have a major negative effect and lead to personnel shortages if enough people have fatal reactions to the virus.

Western authorities are still trying to learn how the new virus works. China kept the West out of the loop while the virus was hitting hard in China, and the virus only really broke out into international territory on a big scale just a few days ago. So there are still lots of unknowns, and Western authorities are only just now getting a close look at how it operates in the open.

There haven't been any big break-outs in the US yet. So I suspect the US authorities are hoping to stave it off with quarantines and isolations and buy time. The usual end of flu season in the US is in March-April; presumably after that they'll have time to play with the thing, try out some vaccines, see if it's going to show up in multiple forms like the standard flu does, etc.

But if there's a big breakout of the coronavirus in the US, I personally would argue against big lockdowns and travel restrictions and workplace closures that would cripple the economy. Shortages of consumer goods would also mean shortages of medicines, food, and critical supplies that the elderly and infirm need. That's what scares me most: A big economic dislocation that probably wouldn't do any good anyway in the long-term. I'm an old guy. I need my various prescriptions and pills and dietary requirements and "creature comforts." If the virus is going to get me, then it's going to get me. Personally, I would rather die from the virus and take a quick exit that way rather than try to survive and scrape by in a trashed economy over the long-term. At my age, I'm not into apocalyptic survival scenarios. :)

So my own immediate thoughts: If the coronavirus breaks out in a big way in the US, then let life continue as normal for most of the population (assuming the coronavirus remains nonthreatening to the young and healthy folks), let the virus do its thing, and simply focus extra support resources on the vulnerable groups (elderly and infirm) separately. Whatever that might require--extra medical assistance and all that.

Again, the situation is all still very preliminary. The authorities are still really just learning how the coronavirus works. But based on what I've read about it, those are my own thoughts.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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^^yeah, I think these things serve a purpose of periodically thinning the herds. I’m still terrified of this stuff but not much I can do about it if it gets me
 
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