Coronavirus

[Mind Maverick]

Wales has the worst concentration in the UK outside of London, last I looked...not the worst number of cases obviously, but the worst ratio of confirmed cases per 100,000 people.

The worst areas in the US are heavy cities, but little rural Wales is doing poorly. It's amazing what you can tell about a place just from Covid-19.

 

[Swivelinglight]

The United States just passed 100K reported cases: Coronavirus Update (Live): 590,038 Cases and 26,939 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Two weeks ago, when we had 3K cases reported, I drew a relatively simple line through the then-past three or so weeks of total case counts as reported on worldmeters.info. Despite having only reached 3K cases in over 3 weeks, that simple line said we'd get to 100K cases in the next two, or thereabouts. I wouldn't have bet money on it. I had no intuition about it. That's just what the math said.

Though I'm an actuary, and my expertise is in certain kinds of modelling, I don't have epidemiological expertise. I know what exponential growth looks like, how to fit curves, and what to expect mathematically, but I don't have an expert sense of how viruses propagate through a society when behavioral changes occur in response to them. I also don't have access to, or a deep knowledge of, the sorts of information public health officials do when they model outbreaks and the potential risks of them. I do, however, have a relatively sophisticated understanding of risk modelling as viewed through an actuarial lens, and can appreciate the thought and years of work that goes into them.

I trust our health experts. I trust our scientists. I trust the people who have devoted their adult-lives to the study of the physical world and have advised world leaders to make the choices they have made. If someone disagrees with those choices, I expect them to do so with empirical data behind them, a carefully reasoned argument, and the credentials to boot. Otherwise, I view such nay-sayers with skepticism and, sometimes, a bit of disdain.

kudos to your accurate prediction

edit: I'm not even being sarcastic; I've been tracking your charts, and it's amazing that your predicted data is so accurate - mathemagician right there

 

[Jonny]

kudos to your accurate prediction

Thanks, but it's not really my prediction. I wouldn't have trusted that line. I wouldn't have bet money on it. And taking credit for accuracy in hindsight would be disingenuous. I had and still have extreme uncertainty about it all.

I do find how closely we've followed the line to be rather amazing, however. Exponential growth in real-time. If a simple line can illustrate so clearly the growth rate of the virus, I can only imagine how well the more sophisticated models of the experts do so. I trust them more than I'd trust myself.

 

[Jaguar]

Coronavirus: This week in pictures [Video]

 

[Red Memories]

I had avoided looking at the numbers today

Yeah, Italy looking even more depressing...

 

[Mind Maverick]

Jair Bolsonaro claims Brazilians 'never catch anything' as Covid-19 cases rise | Global development | The Guardian

How's that immunity looking, Bolstupido?
Coming from a president that probably has it himself and lied about the results.

The entire fucking world is getting Covid-19 and this asshat is arrogant enough to say Brazilians--who are already also getting it and dying--are just so special that they have some sort of higher immunity.

 

[Vendrah]

"He’s described the illness as a “little flu,” a trifling “cold.” He’s accused the media of manufacturing “hysteria”—even as confirmed cases of the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, soar to well over half a million and deaths to roughly 25,000 worldwide. The coronavirus-denial movement officially has a leader, and it’s Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro."
Thats super accurate and its all literal and no exageration.

Bolsonaro Leads the Coronavirus-Denial Movement - The Atlantic

Also, Bolsonaro had listed religious activities as "essential", so any religious crowding events are going to be back (because, you know, a lot of brazilian priests have a significant income and bilionarie, famous and prestigied priest is something REAL in Brazil).

Jair Bolsonaro promulgates decree that makes spirituality an essential activity - Cryptodictation

I tried to even switch google to english and google region to US but I got no english news to link, so I am going to report it in my words. This news is completely real: Today, president Bolsonaro spend 1 million dollars from tax payers to release a new market campaign called: "Brazil cant stop". This new campaign is to re-open everything in monday, to end the quarantine everywhere (including where there are dozens of deaths and dozens of thousands of cases) and only people over age 65 are recommended to be kept in home (recommended!). People took their cars and started protesting in favor of Bolsonaro campaign (that now is official, but it was informal since 2-3 days ago) - and several of these cars were expensive cars - in the roads, starting yesterday night and also today, horning all over the street (they were protesting in their cars!). The expectancy is that some states ends quarantine in monday. The 4th or 5h state in local Corona ranking(from 27) has already taken quarantine down officially. In other areas where quarantine was made by population and not by law, several comertial areas are already back. Some states had 2 weeks quarantine (most brazilian places are in quarantine for a week - mine is only for 6 days) and it is expected that none of them are going to extend that quarantine, and those which will try, will definitely be pressed by federal government to end the quarantine. Reasonable estimates says that, with that campaign, about 5,000 of brazilians are going to die directly from Corona in the next two weeks, with a number raising exponencially. But, Bolsonaro is already working a lot into limiting the number of tests as much as possible, so there wont be statistics reports to, you know, disturb the economies. Also, Bolsonaro is already aware of the deaths, and he just literally said: "Its part of life".

--

Many super billionaries are happy with this and I bet that they moved stuff to this to happen. OMG I hate conservatives, they are ruining everything around here. Also, never saw so much unvirtued religions, >=(.

 

[Vendrah]

Coming from a president that probably has it himself and lied about the results.

Just to detail that, literally like 10-20 people of the presidential entourage (entourage is google translated but it is meant to be the group that travels with the president) are tested with positive for Corona. This guy made a test twice, where he says it was negative, but he never showed anyone the results and refuses to do so.

 

[Vendrah]

And just another "breaking news" from here: The governor of the state with most deaths and cases of Corona, 'João Dória' (João is the portuguese version of the name, in english, John) (he is from right wing), is resisting Bolsonaro´s order and wants to keep quarantine on his state. Bolsonaro followers from the far right wing are sending multiple life threats to John. They want to literally murder John for keeping the quarantine.

 

[Mind Maverick]

And just another "breaking news" from here: The governor of the state with most deaths and cases of Corona, 'João Dória' (João is the portuguese version of the name, in english, John) (he is from right wing), is resisting Bolsonaro´s order and wants to keep quarantine on his state. Bolsonaro followers from the far right wing are sending multiple life threats to John. They want to literally murder John for keeping the quarantine.

I thought São Paulo was the country's epidemic center?

 

[Mind Maverick]

Just to detail that, literally like 10-20 people of the presidential entourage (entourage is google translated but it is meant to be the group that travels with the president) are tested with positive for Corona. This guy made a test twice, where he says it was negative, but he never showed anyone the results and refuses to do so.

"Brazilian President Bolsonaro has dismissed COVID-19 as a “little flu” that he could easily survive because of his athleticism."

I'm sorry, but...it's going to be pretty funny when he croaks from it. He deserves it, too. He's putting many lives in danger. It's already a third world country and will do badly enough without him adding this kind of slow responsiveness and resistance to countermeasures.
Brazilian President Bolsonaro Blasts Coronavirus “Hysteria” as Sao Paulo Locks Down | Democracy Now!


All of this opposition of quarantine and Corona's seriousness really seems more like his own personal denial with his own case of it.

 

[Vendrah]

I thought São Paulo was the country's epidemic center?

It is. Doria is the governor of the state of São Paulo (english name is Saint Paul).

"Brazilian President Bolsonaro has dismissed COVID-19 as a “little flu” that he could easily survive because of his athleticism."

I'm sorry, but...it's going to be pretty funny when he croaks from it. He deserves it, too. He's putting many lives in danger. It's already a third world country and will do badly enough without him adding this kind of slow responsiveness and resistance to countermeasures.
Brazilian President Bolsonaro Blasts Coronavirus “Hysteria” as Sao Paulo Locks Down | Democracy Now!


All of this opposition of quarantine and Corona's seriousness really seems more like his own personal denial with his own case of it.

Yeah, its going to be worse than what some people call here "shitshow".

 

[Mind Maverick]

It is. Doria is the governor of the state of São Paulo (english name is Saint Paul).

Ahh. Whoops, I actually just misread that.

Yeah, its going to be worse than what some people call here "shitshow".

It wouldn't be so bad if the only people being endangered were the ones who were stupid enough to go against everything...hey, if you want to pitch a fit about getting your own selves sick and killed, you go right ahead, morons...but unfortunately, they're not just doing that. They're actually trying to impose their idiotic choices on the lives of others.

 

[Virtual ghost]

For many years politicians around the world have played their own little games regardless of the costs and the results of that. Therefore now this pandemic as a wildcard will blow up this entire game and erase pretty much all rules.


In other words now we will all pay all of the "half solutions" made over the last few decades.
Healthy people in the sick world - unrealistic.

 

[Mind Maverick]

It's not just there. I live in a small town in MI. We have had 2 confirmed cases for weeks now in my county- but we are on the verge of tourist season, and lots of people from Detroit and New York have summer homes or rich friends here. I already opened up a log cabin on the lake for a lady who was flying in from Belize, but she had someone drop off a mountain of food and planned on self quarantining there for the recommended 14 days. That is fine, I think. People should have the right to leave hot zones and hunker down in colder zones if they can, as long as they do it very responsibly. Today, however, I went to open up this small apartment downtown for a customer- and someone from New York (who flew in, and rented a car) was already there (I only do it for them if I can get in and out before they show up, so as not to compromise myself). Nothing about him gave me the impression that he was going to sufficiently self quarantine. I refused to go in. Not sure how to balance the rights of intelligent people to come up here where it's safer, with the rights of morons to do the same. Can't control what people do. And i can only control what I do so much. I could avoid going into that apartment, but I won't be able to avoid going into the grocery store eventually.

The problem is that exactly, it's not enforced. Not everyone will have the option of having a person deliver a bunch of food to them even. Not everyone has a nice isolated cabin to go to. No one is being monitored. People still need to buy supplies as they've just been on a plane and can't take much with them. It's basically just expecting people to follow the rules on their own, and that never goes well. They should all have been tested before getting on the planes. It should have been a requirement for them to travel. They should have had to stay in quarantine for 2 weeks *before* going, where the rule could have actually been enforced.

 

[Vendrah]

Ahh. Whoops, I actually just misread that.


It wouldn't be so bad if the only people being endangered were the ones who were stupid enough to go against everything...hey, if you want to pitch a fit about getting your own selves sick and killed, you go right ahead, morons...but unfortunately, they're not just doing that. They're actually trying to impose their idiotic choices on the lives of others.

Except that Brazil has a very high concentrated income and the bilionaries can force people to work in risk while some of them are actually in quarantine. My case, although, I likely will sit at home. I think.
Sadly, Darwins law doesnt work really that favorable.

 

[Jonny]

 

[Nicodemus]

Wales has the worst concentration in the UK outside of London, last I looked...not the worst number of cases obviously, but the worst ratio of confirmed cases per 100,000 people.

The worst areas in the US are heavy cities, but little rural Wales is doing poorly. It's amazing what you can tell about a place just from Covid-19.

You can't tell much, though. Even the experts have only guesses as to why some places are hit so much harder than others. That, at least, is what virologist and infection-epidemiologist Christian Drosten says, who in 2003 discovered the first known species of the coronavirus that infected humans and is now advising the German government on how to contain the spread of the new species.

 

[Mind Maverick]

You can't tell much, though. Even the experts have only guesses as to why some places are hit so much harder than others. That, at least, is what virologist and infection-epidemiologist Christian Drosten says, who in 2003 discovered the first known species of the coronavirus that infected humans and is now advising the German government on how to contain the spread of the new species.

Link?

 

[Nicodemus]

Link?

YouTube

Good luck.

"He’s described the illness as a “little flu,” a trifling “cold.” He’s accused the media of manufacturing “hysteria”—even as confirmed cases of the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, soar to well over half a million and deaths to roughly 25,000 worldwide. The coronavirus-denial movement officially has a leader, and it’s Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro."
Thats super accurate and its all literal and no exageration.

Bolsonaro Leads the Coronavirus-Denial Movement - The Atlantic

Also, Bolsonaro had listed religious activities as "essential", so any religious crowding events are going to be back (because, you know, a lot of brazilian priests have a significant income and bilionarie, famous and prestigied priest is something REAL in Brazil).

Jair Bolsonaro promulgates decree that makes spirituality an essential activity - Cryptodictation

I tried to even switch google to english and google region to US but I got no english news to link, so I am going to report it in my words. This news is completely real: Today, president Bolsonaro spend 1 million dollars from tax payers to release a new market campaign called: "Brazil cant stop". This new campaign is to re-open everything in monday, to end the quarantine everywhere (including where there are dozens of deaths and dozens of thousands of cases) and only people over age 65 are recommended to be kept in home (recommended!). People took their cars and started protesting in favor of Bolsonaro campaign (that now is official, but it was informal since 2-3 days ago) - and several of these cars were expensive cars - in the roads, starting yesterday night and also today, horning all over the street (they were protesting in their cars!). The expectancy is that some states ends quarantine in monday. The 4th or 5h state in local Corona ranking(from 27) has already taken quarantine down officially. In other areas where quarantine was made by population and not by law, several comertial areas are already back. Some states had 2 weeks quarantine (most brazilian places are in quarantine for a week - mine is only for 6 days) and it is expected that none of them are going to extend that quarantine, and those which will try, will definitely be pressed by federal government to end the quarantine. Reasonable estimates says that, with that campaign, about 5,000 of brazilians are going to die directly from Corona in the next two weeks, with a number raising exponencially. But, Bolsonaro is already working a lot into limiting the number of tests as much as possible, so there wont be statistics reports to, you know, disturb the economies. Also, Bolsonaro is already aware of the deaths, and he just literally said: "Its part of life".

--

Many super billionaries are happy with this and I bet that they moved stuff to this to happen. OMG I hate conservatives, they are ruining everything around here. Also, never saw so much unvirtued religions, >=(.

Obviously no relief for you, but it will be interesting to see how the virus behaves in a country where there is no fight against it.