Coronavirus

[Red Herring]

What makes you say it will get much worse on the short run ? (genuine question)


I mean here the official number of deaths is only about 20% of Germany (per capita). However even despite that the government is not taking any gambles and they made plenty of alternative but safe locations for positive but not serious cases.


Plus it seems that the first wave of recoveries is starting to kick in.

This is the development from day one in comparison. So far the German curve (yellow) is behaving almost exactly like the Italian curve (green). Time will tell if social distancing and better hospital infrastructure will have a strong enough impact to flatten the curve considerably. But the numbers are expected to go up for a little longer. We are doing better than Spain or the USA but much worse than South Corea.

Also, Croatia has barely even started yet. I looked at your government website and it said 551 cases, 37 cured and 3 dead. Percentagewise that's similar to Germany.

 

[typologyenthusiast]

Breaking News: US overtakes China in the total of confirmed cases

 

[FemMecha]

Coronavirus on surfaces 3 days
How Long Does Coronavirus Last on Surfaces?

Coronavirus on surfaces 17 days
Coronavirus That Causes COVID-19 Stays on Undisinfected Surfaces for 17 Days | Infection Control Today

I wish the article had stated which surfaces and the types of materials that hold the virus. Stainless steel and plastic were notated as holding the virus for 3 days in the first study. I wonder if it is also related to the density of the virus on the surface? Perhaps on the cruise ship the surfaces had so much virus that it takes longer to dissipate? Or was it lasting longer on other materials? These are questions I have.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is the development from day one in comparison. So far the German curve (yellow) is behaving almost exactly like the Italian curve (green). Time will tell if social distancing and better hospital infrastructure will have a strong enough impact to flatten the curve considerably. But the numbers are expected to go up for a little longer. We are doing better than Spain or the USA but much worse than South Corea.

Also, Croatia has barely even started yet. I looked at your government website and it said 551 cases, 37 cured and 3 dead. Percentagewise that's similar to Germany.

Well, I judged by politico, which says 0.7 deaths per million for Croatia, and 3.4 for Germany. That is how I got that 20%. But we didn't just started, here the crisis started about the same time as Germany and the rest of Europe, however much smaller population makes the problem look small. Since here the population is 21 times smaller at therefore the problem numbers can be deceiving at face value. 550 of us is about 11000 Germans percent wise.


Good luck.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus

UK health secretary tests positive for coronavirus


The logical guess would be that it runs through the government.

 

[Jaguar]

Most COVID-19 positive cases in Maricopa County are young adults | Coronavirus Coverage | azfamily.com

 

[Vendrah]

I have a heart and a brain. It is wise to use both. Unfortunately, some demonstrate too often that they choose to avoid thinking much at all.

You do realize that almost 3 million people die every single year in America alone. Where is your heart for them? Where is your compassion for them? Where were your posts about them for the three years you have been in tune forum?

Death is a part of life. It isn't unusual or rare. It is sad when someone I know dies, but it is only rarely a tragedy.

But it is what is. Here is a top 10 causes list: The top 10 leading causes of death in the United States

Let's see: no.1 -- heart disease, 647k. Almost 2000 per day. Some of those die very young. I have a son that had heart surgery when he was 7 lbs. that prevented his death. I have another son, still a minor child, who is currently scheduled to see the heart surgeon for a possible heart surgery. I have gone on the annual Heart Walk for years. Given my family history, I will probably die of heart problems.

Every single year almost 3 million die in America. Most of us can deal with those deaths rather well, no matter how much we care for those we know.

You are more than heartless if you refuse to look rationally at the consequences here if we have Greater Recession or Depression. The deaths of despair will dwarf the Covid dead.

This is part of what I was complaining with plenty of reasons a few pages ago.

The virus is highly contagious. That means that it has pottential to literally have 50-80% of population to be infected (at the same time).

Even if perhaps only 20% of them ever needs a hospital, thats still more than what hospitals can handle. In case of Brazil, it is WAY more than what hospitals can handle. Public and private combined.

These estimates requires a hard math and are country specific. However, if you do almost nothing (which saves the economy), your country (and most contries in the world, including good developed ones) doesnt have enough hospital room because nobody expected that so much people would get sick at the same time. With hospitals flooded with people, if you or anyone of your family have something bad heart related and ever need the hospital, unless you can pay a few millions per month (in US dollars) and still stay good financially, you are going to die expecting treatment on a line somewhere or at home. That means that the Corona will boost up all these numbers of death you posted before, plus all deaths by Corona itself. The crisis that will emerge from hospitals being saturated in order to "save the economy" have potential to last several months or even more than a year depending on how vaccine and treatment for Corona goes. And then, you will have plenty of people - the Corona ones plus other ones who are going to need the hospital for the reasons you posted before - dying, and plenty of population with a flu which, of course, will work sick (with a highly contagious sickness), which will be less efficient and you can bet it will be a headeache.

The economy is going to lose anyway, and thats because, as [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] pointed and I re-pointed on pages 91 and 92, the market cant handle properly a hibernation AND the super rich in general, that are the ones who holds the power to unite themselves to do something because, you know, they are the 2-5% that has half of the income and more than a half of money in the bank/properties, doesnt seem to want to do even the minimal.

 

[Maou]

Coronavirus on surfaces 3 days
How Long Does Coronavirus Last on Surfaces?

Coronavirus on surfaces 17 days
Coronavirus That Causes COVID-19 Stays on Undisinfected Surfaces for 17 Days | Infection Control Today

I wish the article had stated which surfaces and the types of materials that hold the virus. Stainless steel and plastic were notated as holding the virus for 3 days in the first study. I wonder if it is also related to the density of the virus on the surface? Perhaps on the cruise ship the surfaces had so much virus that it takes longer to dissipate? Or was it lasting longer on other materials? These are questions I have.

If you go based on food safety standards, its probably how porous the surface is. So wood would hold the virus longer than stainless steel. Also why stainless steel is essential in kitchens.

 

[FemMecha]

If you go based on food safety standards, its probably how porous the surface is. So wood would hold the virus longer than stainless steel. Also why stainless steel is essential in kitchens.

What you say makes sense, but it only lives on cardboard for 24 hours which is more porous, and it lives longer on stainless steel and plastic at 72 hours. Copper neutralizes it the fastest at 4 hours. I wish I understood more about the results of the surface tests.

 

[Mind Maverick]

4 dead on Florida-bound cruise ship with more than 100 sick passengers

NOOOOOO, GO BACK TO CHILE

Why is everyone coming to FL? First the NYers flying here with an entirely pointless self-isolate order that will do nothing, and now this.

Our numbers rose by 800 in one day, it's bad enough here.

 

[Jaguar]

Florida is open for business. And infection.

Meet Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Petri Dish) - The Bulwark

 

[cascadeco]

What you say makes sense, but it only lives on cardboard for 24 hours which is more porous, and it lives longer on stainless steel and plastic at 72 hours. Copper neutralizes it the fastest at 4 hours. I wish I understood more about the results of the surface tests.

Johns Hopkins University has sent this excellent summary to avoid contagion, share it because it is very clear:
* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipids (fats) which, if absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or mouth mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and converts them into multiplier and attacker cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and the type of material in which it is found.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That's why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam BREAKS THE GREASE (that's why you have to rub so much: for at least 20 seconds or more, and make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
HEAT melts the fat; then use water above 25 degrees to wash your hands, clothes and everything else. In addition, hot water produces more foam which makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol greater than 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mixture with 1 part of bleach and 5 parts of water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Hydrogen peroxide helps a lot after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the proteins of the virus, but you have to use it pure and it hurts the skin.
NO BACTERICIDES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; one cannot kill with antibiotics what is not alive, but rapidly disintegrate its structure with all that has been said.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or clothing. While it is glued on a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, because it removes all moisture and does not let it detach and disintegrates), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours and can settle in your nose.
Viral molecules remain very stable in external or artificial cold like air conditioners in homes and cars. They also need moisture to remain stable and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it more quickly.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is a protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break the protective layer of fat.
NO ALCOHOL or VODKA. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol and you need 65%.
* LISTERINA (it's an American mouthwash) IF YOU NEED IT! It's 65% alcohol.
* The more space is limited, the higher the concentration of the virus. More open or naturally ventilated, less.
* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching the mucous membrane, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You must HUMIDIFY DRY HANDS, for example wash them a lot, because molecules can hide in micro wrinkles or cuts. The denser the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your SHORT NAILS so that the virus doesn't hide there.

 

[Mind Maverick]

What Amazon Workers Are Facing as Coronavirus Spreads in the US | WIRED

I should add that a lot of employees don't have enough paid or unpaid time off hours to allow them to even leave for long enough if they are afraid (esp due to being a part of the high-risk groups) or they actually feel sick. For a lot of people it's either come to work sick or lose your job. Even for those who have confirmed cases, they only get 2 weeks of sick time/pay.

EDIT/Update: They have unlimited time off until the month of March, so I guess that time off issue starts in April.

 

[anticlimatic]

4 dead on Florida-bound cruise ship with more than 100 sick passengers

NOOOOOO, GO BACK TO CHILE

Why is everyone coming to FL? First the NYers flying here with an entirely pointless self-isolate order that will do nothing, and now this.

Our numbers rose by 800 in one day, it's bad enough here.

It's not just there. I live in a small town in MI. We have had 2 confirmed cases for weeks now in my county- but we are on the verge of tourist season, and lots of people from Detroit and New York have summer homes or rich friends here. I already opened up a log cabin on the lake for a lady who was flying in from Belize, but she had someone drop off a mountain of food and planned on self quarantining there for the recommended 14 days. That is fine, I think. People should have the right to leave hot zones and hunker down in colder zones if they can, as long as they do it very responsibly. Today, however, I went to open up this small apartment downtown for a customer- and someone from New York (who flew in, and rented a car) was already there (I only do it for them if I can get in and out before they show up, so as not to compromise myself). Nothing about him gave me the impression that he was going to sufficiently self quarantine. I refused to go in. Not sure how to balance the rights of intelligent people to come up here where it's safer, with the rights of morons to do the same. Can't control what people do. And i can only control what I do so much. I could avoid going into that apartment, but I won't be able to avoid going into the grocery store eventually.

 

[FemMecha]

Johns Hopkins University has sent this excellent summary to avoid contagion, share it because it is very clear:
* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipids (fats) which, if absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or mouth mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and converts them into multiplier and attacker cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and the type of material in which it is found.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That's why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam BREAKS THE GREASE (that's why you have to rub so much: for at least 20 seconds or more, and make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
HEAT melts the fat; then use water above 25 degrees to wash your hands, clothes and everything else. In addition, hot water produces more foam which makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol greater than 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mixture with 1 part of bleach and 5 parts of water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Hydrogen peroxide helps a lot after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the proteins of the virus, but you have to use it pure and it hurts the skin.
NO BACTERICIDES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; one cannot kill with antibiotics what is not alive, but rapidly disintegrate its structure with all that has been said.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or clothing. While it is glued on a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, because it removes all moisture and does not let it detach and disintegrates), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours and can settle in your nose.
Viral molecules remain very stable in external or artificial cold like air conditioners in homes and cars. They also need moisture to remain stable and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it more quickly.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is a protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break the protective layer of fat.
NO ALCOHOL or VODKA. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol and you need 65%.
* LISTERINA (it's an American mouthwash) IF YOU NEED IT! It's 65% alcohol.
* The more space is limited, the higher the concentration of the virus. More open or naturally ventilated, less.
* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching the mucous membrane, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You must HUMIDIFY DRY HANDS, for example wash them a lot, because molecules can hide in micro wrinkles or cuts. The denser the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your SHORT NAILS so that the virus doesn't hide there.

This is extremely helpful! I found the link to share on social media. It also make me wish even more that I had a door directly to the outside. The halls are very dark with poor ventilation.

 

[Jaguar]

The attack came hours after the president charged that states were inflating their needs and shortly before G.M. said in a statement that it would manufacture the devices.

In Abrupt Shift, Trump Cites Need for Ventilators and Criticizes G.M. - The New York Times

This guy couldn't organize a trip to the bathroom much less a country in crisis.

 

[Virtual ghost]

4 dead on Florida-bound cruise ship with more than 100 sick passengers

NOOOOOO, GO BACK TO CHILE

Why is everyone coming to FL? First the NYers flying here with an entirely pointless self-isolate order that will do nothing, and now this.

Our numbers rose by 800 in one day, it's bad enough here.

As the guy from very touristy country I fully understand "Not now".


I mean what kinda of person goes on cruse ship in the times like this and what kinda of a person organized cruise ships in the times like these ? That is possibly the worst environment you can be in a global pandemic (especially if the whole thing is fully international). This should have legal consequences.






Btw Switzerland as per capita is doing worse than any of commonly mentioned European countries.

 

[Jaguar]

Cruise lines excluded from stimulus package.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Cruise lines excluded from stimulus package.

Isn't it CLOSE TO ZERO already?

Which one ? Now there is 5 of them !?

 

[Jonny]

The United States just passed 100K reported cases: Coronavirus Update (Live): 590,038 Cases and 26,939 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Two weeks ago, when we had 3K cases reported, I drew a relatively simple line through the then-past three or so weeks of total case counts as reported on worldmeters.info. Despite having only reached 3K cases in over 3 weeks, that simple line said we'd get to 100K cases in the next two, or thereabouts. I wouldn't have bet money on it. I had no intuition about it. That's just what the math said.

Though I'm an actuary, and my expertise is in certain kinds of modelling, I don't have epidemiological expertise. I know what exponential growth looks like, how to fit curves, and what to expect mathematically, but I don't have an expert sense of how viruses propagate through a society when behavioral changes occur in response to them. I also don't have access to, or a deep knowledge of, the sorts of information public health officials do when they model outbreaks and the potential risks of them. I do, however, have a relatively sophisticated understanding of risk modelling as viewed through an actuarial lens, and can appreciate the thought and years of work that go into them.

I trust our health experts. I trust our scientists. I trust the people who have devoted their adult-lives to the study of the physical world and have advised world leaders to make the choices they have made. If someone disagrees with those choices, I expect them to do so with empirical data behind them, a carefully reasoned argument, and the credentials to boot. Otherwise, I view such nay-sayers with skepticism and, sometimes, a bit of disdain.

Keep in mind this is based on past trends only. It does not consider the impact of country-wide measures to stop the spread, or the eventual herd-immunity that will take place. It also doesn't consider the fact that the number of infected/dead could be incorrect due to insufficient testing/Dx.