Coronavirus

[Jaguar]

'Pull out and pray.' We know how well that works in practice . . .

Trump Declares National Day of Prayer for Americans Affected by Coronavirus and National Response Efforts

 

[Red Herring]

Not sure if American media are reporting on it, but it's a big news story here in Germany:


There is a company in Tübingen, Curevac, who are working on a vaccine together with the public taxpayer funded Robert Koch Institut. They are planning to make the vaccine available to the whole world as soon as they have it. Now the ministry of health and Curevac have both confirmed that Donald Trump offered them billions of Dollars to sell the vaccine to the United States on an exclusive basis, i.e. only for Americans. They refused the offer.

Do I have to explain the absolute assholeness of that move and how angry people are about this?

 

[Jonny]

Coronavirus Cases: USA

Lots of interesting graphs on this page, but the graphs are not images so I can't link them.

March 14: 696 new cases
March 13: 550 new cases
March 12: 396 new cases
March 11: 307 new cases
March 10: 290 new cases
March 09: 163 new cases
March 08: 106 new cases
March 07: 116 new cases
March 06: 98 new cases

Here's the good news: There are currently 2976 infected persons but only 10 of them are in serious or critical condition; that's 0%.

Someone please plot this in Excel and give us a projection of what we can expect in the coming week if the current trend holds. I can't do it because my office trial period has expired.

Keep in mind this is based on past trends only. It does not consider the impact of country-wide measures to stop the spread, or the eventual herd-immunity that will take place. It also doesn't consider the fact that the number of infected/dead could be incorrect due to insufficient testing/Dx.

 

[Red Herring]

In other news, we were going to marry next month and will probably have to postpone the wedding until June. There will be very, very few guests but they include seniors and people who will have to cross international borders and we fear the restaurant we booked might have to close down.

 

[Red Memories]

Coronavirus Cases: USA

Lots of interesting graphs on this page, but the graphs are not images so I can't link them.

March 14: 696 new cases
March 13: 550 new cases
March 12: 396 new cases
March 11: 307 new cases
March 10: 290 new cases
March 09: 163 new cases
March 08: 106 new cases
March 07: 116 new cases
March 06: 98 new cases

Here's the good news: There are currently 2976 infected persons but only 10 of them are in serious or critical condition; that's 0%.

Someone please plot this in Excel and give us a projection of what we can expect in the coming week if the current trend holds. I can't do it because my office trial period has expired.

HI I decided to try this out since I'm prepping for an excel exam anyway.

1. Thus far it said generally it cannot find a trend, so I decided to do some data look in general.

A graph chart shows the rise began slowly but has become more prominent in the last few days.

The average amount of new cases is about 302. However the rate difference from day to day can vary a lot. One day difference wise went from a 57 difference to a 127 difference, while the next day there was only 17 compared to the last day difference.

If there is a particular formula you know to put on this data set let me know. XD My formula knowledge is somewhat limited.

 

[Red Memories]

Not sure if American media are reporting on it, but it's a big news story here in Germany:


There is a company in Tübingen, Curevac, who are working on a vaccine together with the public taxpayer funded Robert Koch Institut. They are planning to make the vaccine available to the whole world as soon as they have it. Now the ministry of health and Curevac have both confirmed that Donald Trump offered them billions of Dollars to sell the vaccine to the United States on an exclusive basis, i.e. only for Americans. They refused the offer.

Do I have to explain the absolute assholeness of that move and how angry people are about this?

...why the actual fuck...

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was right, these are basically the new 90s.

My health minister: We survived the independence war and we will survive this as well. Even if this time the enemy is really small.

In a way it is almost funny how the public discourse just can't get away from that war.

 

[Tellenbach]

If there is a particular formula you know to put on this data set let me know. XD My formula knowledge is somewhat limited.

Thanks. I think [MENTION=9251]Jonny[/MENTION] already did it. I'm glad he decided to plot the data on a logarithmic scale. There is excellent correlation and I think the projection is going to be very accurate until we get much warmer weather in mid to late April, so we can expect around 30,000 deaths. This is assuming the government/private industry doesn't implement further control measures, like mandatory self-quarantines or closure of libraries, supermarkets, and restaurants.

If you do a scatter plot in Excel, I think you can tell Excel to find a function that best fits the points. Sometimes, it's a line and sometimes, it's a polynomial, but I don't think that's necessary for this set of data.

 

[Jaguar]

Not sure if American media are reporting on it, but it's a big news story here in Germany:


There is a company in Tübingen, Curevac, who are working on a vaccine together with the public taxpayer funded Robert Koch Institut. They are planning to make the vaccine available to the whole world as soon as they have it. Now the ministry of health and Curevac have both confirmed that Donald Trump offered them billions of Dollars to sell the vaccine to the United States on an exclusive basis, i.e. only for Americans. They refused the offer.

Do I have to explain the absolute assholeness of that move and how angry people are about this?

I was waiting for something like this to come out. That's how he rolls. Been that way for decades. Scum.

 

[Red Herring]

Small correction: It's the Paul Ehrlich Institut, not the Robert Koch Institut (the RKI is a public institute researching infectious deseases, the PEI is another public institute focussing on the development of vaccines)

 

[Red Memories]

pray for Italy friends...that death toll was...broke my heart to say the least.

 

[FemMecha]

Related to the topic, I remember back in December my brother sharing links to underground youtube videos coming out of China where people were trying to describe to the world how bad this contagion was happening there. The speaker was wearing a ventilator mask and describing the outbreak there and expressed concern about the video being taken down and repercussions for posting it. It came back to my mind this week because initially I didn't make the connection, but yeah, that was this Covid-19 issue at its start.

EDIT: fwiw I found the video I referred to above. It wasn't December, but January 25th. I post it for the purpose of establishing a timeline since there are various conspiracy theories going on these days.

 

[Lexicon]

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”

(with neat virus simulator)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[typologyenthusiast]

You can also check this link for updated number of confirmed cases and death toll.
Al Jazeera Update for all countries

Indonesia Confirmed case rise to 117
This news has caught public eye in Indonesia.
Indonesian Transportation Minister Tests Positive for Covid-19

I would say top state officials are prone to get infected as they frequently travel to many places and meet people.

 

[Obfuscate]

i haven't been paying a ton of attention to this thread, or very interested in this subject in general... seems to me like a lot more fuss is being made than is really necessary... seems like there should be provisions made for vulnerable members of a community, and the rest of us could stop buying insane stockpiles of toilet paper... this has in no way impacted my life beyond spending some time in smaller towns confirming that even napkins, paper towels, and tissues are in short supply... not one roll of toilet paper on a shelf... what in the fuck? it isn't like i am low on anything i need... i just don't understand the mentality (well, i can't imagine having it) that leads to that... how long are these people planning to hide at home? isn't that just going to trash the economy over something that isn't typically lethal?

post script:

i only checked the smaller spots after hearing complaints about it in larger local spots... is there something i am missing? maybe there is more risk from this thing than i am understanding somehow... not that i want to be sick... i am just saying... somebody has to do stuff...

 

[EcK]

The three elements that will define this in the long run are :

reinfection rate
+ There is some evidence to suggest that around 14% of people can get reinfected shortly after getting better. But it's too early to know what is the longer-term reinfection rate, and whether these numbers would hold up in a larger study [some could be false positives who were still sick and simply got better before they got worse]

r0
Right now the R0 is estimated at something like 2/2.5 - but that number could vary quite a bit based on how many carriers are asymptomatic (or nearly so) yet contagious. We also don't know how contagious these (near-)asymptomatic people are.
These 'asymptomatic carriers' could be a major reason why the containment efforts have failed worldwide.

whether we come up with a vaccine and in general how this thing will fare long term
Given the length of the symptoms and contagiousness, it's very likely that this thing would become endemic and keep coming back unless
1) there is enough people who build up long term immunity for it (let's say immunity for over 18 months before likely reinfection). That would have to be a large percentage of the population worldwide to prevent the virus from coming back every year though.
2) we find a vaccine and do mass vaccinations

 

[Lexicon]

^I suspect those who are 'reinfected' weren't truly reinfected. More likely they hadn't cleared the initial infection, & were in fact subclinical (not showing symptoms anymore/viral load was at undetectable levels, but still actually present). They might've been released from care too soon, assuming they were clear when they weren't, & without supportive care, they crashed hard/presented w/symptoms again.

Just my totally unprofessional guess.






I can't wait to see how anti-vaxxers react when a vaccine is finally produced.

 

[EcK]

^I suspect those who are 'reinfected' weren't truly reinfected. More likely they hadn't cleared the initial infection, & were in fact subclinical (not showing symptoms anymore/viral load was at undetectable levels, but still actually present). They might've been released from care too soon, assuming they were clear when they weren't, & without supportive care, they crashed hard/presented w/symptoms again.

Just my totally unprofessional guess.






I can't wait to see how anti-vaxxers react when a vaccine is finally produced.

Well, we just don't know. But yeah, if they got better in the first place you'd have to assume they built up some level of immunity (unless for some reason the virus only replicates so much in a single host but I'd have no clue what biological process could trigger that - though it would be very advantageous evolutionarily speaking).

One thing anti-vaxxers are right about is that the general public is WAY too accepting of these vaccines.
It takes billions of dollars to greenlight a damn aspirin but people have no issue injecting barely tested partly deactivated viruses that could end up having negative long term effects. I see both viewpoints as somehow tone-deaf.
A large part of our DNA comes from viruses, viruses are good at staying in our cells long term. Lucky for us I guess Covid 19 is an RNA virus and so less likely to inject itself into our cells for life, like herpes does - but that also means it mutates faster.

 

[noname3788]

Not directly related question: Why do people buy that much toilet paper? I really dont get.

 

[EcK]

Not directly related question: Why do people buy that much toilet paper? I really dont get.

yeah me neither. I mean sure stock up a little more than usual but toilet paper is not a necessity. I think it's probably a case of some people going crazy and everyone else being like 'fuck it guess I have to buy toilet paper now before some retards go and buy 300 rolls per person"