Coronavirus

[ceecee]

Yeah, I did (more or less) get that the similarity would set us both apart from you. I was just wondering what kind of difference might exist on a smaller scale.

I mean, in addition to (I'm assuming, could be wrong) having so, so many little independent businesses in a more precarious state, they also don't have such a large pocket of the population perceiving things like "wearing a mask" as completely excessive, unnecessary government control (and who will indeed make a point of getting in other's faces without a mask to lash out at all this "excessive government control"). If people would concede to wear a mask, then I imagine the process of opening up could happen faster.

I said this too but that's out of the question for them. They can't even grasp that their actions are a big reason the lock downs and restrictions could go on longer. But yeah every left person wants to stay in until there is a vaccine. That comes directly from their media, the one they're totally vague about watching.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

I said this too but that's out of the question for them. They can't even grasp that their actions are a big reason the lock downs and restrictions could go on longer. But yeah every left person wants to stay in until there is a vaccine. That comes directly from their media, the one they're totally vague about watching.

Yeah, even the people I know who I consider too impressionable and senselessly reactive on the left don't even begin to actually believe this.

The National Park I live right next to (Indiana Dunes) never actually closed any of their trails in the first place. Even though we're just an hour away from Chicago (hot spot). And I don't know anyone who had a problem with that. Of course, they didn't run into any problems with too many people gathering - then they might have needed to close it down. I'm pretty sure that's why Lightfoot ended up shutting down Chicago beachfront areas, because people weren't adhering to social distancing. (Too lazy to double-check right now).

 

[Vendrah]

Regarding the economy: I was thinking more in the sense what people do for a living. While Germany has much better organization of the government, what is kinda separate issue. In other words as the government has more paths to influence the economy the stronger lockdown you can implement. However the stronger you implement the lockdown the quicker you are ending the pandemic and have smaller economic losses, especially if you acted on time and you don't have to cure plenty of people. Here we basically froze the economy and focused on the pandemic, since you can't really save the economy until you have pandemic under control. Therefore I am not sure about the sweet spot, since for various countries it is different number. However I am getting impression that for Germany and US the number isn't that different in the case that the government is doing it's job. Since the structure of industries probably isn't that different and both countries are probably more linear in output through out the year.



In both countries you don't have what you have here: that tourism rises in one season your population for 25% and with people who have multiple times more money than the locals. Or that the agriculture that is also pretty seasonal industry is quite decent chunk of the economy (which can work fairly well even in the lockdown). From that perspective US and Germany probably aren't that different. Plus in both stock market really counts, while here I haven't seen anything about that in mainstream news in months. Especially since big business is generally public business (domestic or foreign). Also Germans and Americans would mostly freak out in the case that economy is down 70% and that you can't leave the town. While here that was generally "Meh, we have seen worse". However with this we nuked the pandemic and we didn't have to cure or bury mass of people. While frozen economy didn't really generate that many loses over the key month and half since it was frozen (and workers were on UBI). Plus since it was frozen it was easier to continue from where you stopped. Therefore for me the sweet spot is probably somewhere around that 0.3 that makes the Herring uncomfortable. Since for me the problem has to be solved before it becomes medical one. So I am for shock therapy if possible, especially if healthcare system or system in general isn't too ready for this. Otherwise you get what happened in US. Messy middle of the road path that just wasted time and money while solving neither side of the equation. Therefore the logical conclusion would be that Germany as usual was saved by it's order, while US in it's current shape should have probably went to our solution. Even if that would brake almost every local economic convention.

Now that we finally started a cool discussion instead of "Lets open and f#c$ who dies" or "No, Trump Trump Trump", I think that the transmission rate is not the only number to be considered. We have to consider how the daily deaths are doing too and also how good the conditions for a lockdown are and how much time the lockdown is already going on. If daily deaths are low and conditions for keeping the lockdown are not that good, opening is a good idea. However, if daily deaths are still high, then it is better to simply wait.

I do think that some measures to re-opening should be taken, but not only masks. People will avoid going to restaurants and some places even after the opening, so some companys and places should consider only "run in half" or open for a shorter time or lower capacity. Some public events should be cancelled, although soccer and some sports moves lots of money and fans I dont think there should be any of them for months and perhaps the rest of the year. Go to e-sports if they can, its safer. And a lot of places should consider for real going into an online business, restaurants are one of best examples, keeping focus on deliverys is a great way to adapt to these conditions. Being focused as online as possible is great too. Giving the kids some online and home schooling for just a year wont kill that education, even if sometimes online schooling is not good. If measures are taken to adapt the system into something more online to reduce traffic, the re-open can happen for a larger period. And that depends on both governments and markets measure. After re-opening, the infection might spread again eventually, and as late as that happens, the better.

I think the new normal should be some re-openings, re-closings cycles until the pandemic is over, probably in 2021, although I wouldnt be surprised if some country managed a very careful approach and reduced activity and with that managed to stay open. Of course, for those who are taking it seriously, not like in my country.

 

[anticlimatic]

It's in the article you posted. You quoted it.

That wasn't the point of the article.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah, I did (more or less) get that the similarity would set us both apart from you. I was just wondering what kind of difference might exist on a smaller scale.

I mean, in addition to (I'm assuming, could be wrong) having so, so many little independent businesses in a more precarious state, they also don't have such a large pocket of the population perceiving things like "wearing a mask" as completely excessive, unnecessary government control (and who will indeed make a point of getting in other's faces without a mask to lash out at all this "excessive government control"). If people would concede to wear a mask, then I imagine the process of opening up could happen faster.

Well, without masks and gloves on both the staff and customers any opening is kinda "suicidal", even if you have much less than a million active cases. We already opened something like 95% of industries but protection and free hand sanitizer are pretty much anywhere. Here people are by the "folk culture" educated that the real shit hit every few decades so people in general take this pretty seriously. Without that our model probably wouldn't work as well as it did. So the strategy was to push through since the system probably wouldn't handle that well long battle with many ups and downs.


While on the other hand some businesses remained closed even if by the law they could open. Since they thought that they will lose less that way because there will not be that much demand, while government is helping on a number of way and the pandemic still isn't 100% finished at the time. Plus having healthcare as the right also greatly helps in calming people, especially since the virus is only one of the thousands of diseases.

Now that we finally started a cool discussion instead of "Lets open and f#c$ who dies" or "No, Trump Trump Trump", I think that the transmission rate is not the only number to be considered. We have to consider how the daily deaths are doing too and also how good the conditions for a lockdown are and how much time the lockdown is already going on. If daily deaths are low and conditions for keeping the lockdown are not that good, opening is a good idea. However, if daily deaths are still high, then it is better to simply wait.

I do think that some measures to re-opening should be taken, but not only masks. People will avoid going to restaurants and some places even after the opening, so some companys and places should consider only "run in half" or open for a shorter time or lower capacity. Some public events should be cancelled, although soccer and some sports moves lots of money and fans I dont think there should be any of them for months and perhaps the rest of the year. Go to e-sports if they can, its safer. And a lot of places should consider for real going into an online business, restaurants are one of best examples, keeping focus on deliverys is a great way to adapt to these conditions. Being focused as online as possible is great too. Giving the kids some online and home schooling for just a year wont kill that education, even if sometimes online schooling is not good. If measures are taken to adapt the system into something more online to reduce traffic, the re-open can happen for a larger period. And that depends on both governments and markets measure. After re-opening, the infection might spread again eventually, and as late as that happens, the better.

I think the new normal should be some re-openings, re-closings cycles until the pandemic is over, probably in 2021, although I wouldnt be surprised if some country managed a very careful approach and reduced activity and with that managed to stay open. Of course, for those who are taking it seriously, not like in my country.

In my opinion the real strong lockdown can only work as temporary measure (3 months max). In my book it is basically buying the time with a few goals in mind. It is to prevent the out of control pandemic from the start, it buys the time to stockpile masks and gloves as well as all other things you will need in mass, it provides the time to educate people of the new reality that is ahead of them, it gives people and business time to rethink their problems at hand. Just jumping into the pandemic is bad idea (as you already know from first hand).

 

[Red Herring]

Daily new infections in Germany have gone up from 630 to 640 due to yet another slaughterhouse with 90 infected employees (most of them living in shabby community housing for temp workers). Wouldn't be surprised if they were underpaid migrant workers from Eastern Europe.

People lowering their meat consumption either out of moral outrage or shere disgust at the hygienic conditions could be a positive sideeffect of all this...

 

[ceecee]

Daily new infections in Germany have gone up from 630 to 640 due to yet another slaughterhouse with 90 infected employees (most of them living in shabby community housing for temp workers). Wouldn't be surprised if they were underpaid migrant workers from Eastern Europe.

People lowering their meat consumption either out of moral outrage or shere disgust at the hygienic conditions could be a positive sideeffect of all this...

That would be a plus. Here, at least in the bigger stores, the supply itself has been limited. I have noticed more meat alternatives in people's carts so maybe this will be the thing that lowers consumption. Of course that's only for the people that don't think the limited meat supply isn't the deep state or Democrats doing. This country is so stupid.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That would be a plus. Here, at least in the bigger stores, the supply itself has been limited. I have noticed more meat alternatives in people's carts so maybe this will be the thing that lowers consumption. Of course that's only for the people that don't think the limited meat supply isn't the deep state or Democrats doing. This country is so stupid.

Meat alternatives ?

 

[Virtual ghost]

Chinese vaccine would be ‘global public good’ Xi says

 

[ceecee]

Meat alternatives ?

Plant based.

Beyond Meat - Go Beyond(R)

 

[Vendrah]

In my opinion the real strong lockdown can only work as temporary measure (3 months max). In my book it is basically buying the time with a few goals in mind. It is to prevent the out of control pandemic from the start, it buys the time to stockpile masks and gloves as well as all other things you will need in mass, it provides the time to educate people of the new reality that is ahead of them, it gives people and business time to rethink their problems at hand. Just jumping into the pandemic is bad idea (as you already know from first hand).

I agree with that. Those countries (in general) that started a strong lockdown in february and march should get good long-terms benefits, and that is partially because of a correct analysis of the crisis (that the Corona was really worth the attention, which were unclear on that times) that made these countries arrive at this conclusion.

Even though for the second lockdown a too radical approach might not necessarily be the optimal one.
I see two approaches for a re-opened country seeing the second wave, closing a little bit early and being more loose on the measures to keep thing running better or closing a little bit on time to late and having a strong lockdown.

In these oscilations of closing and opening, I dont really know if the best approach is to radical close and radical open or create a less restricted closeness and less radical openness. I think only time could tell that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Plant based.

Beyond Meat - Go Beyond(R)

I heard about that but here that trend didn't really have a take off. Only in really specialized stores can perhaps find something like this (and it is from imports).

I agree with that. Those countries (in general) that started a strong lockdown in february and march should get good long-terms benefits, and that is partially because of a correct analysis of the crisis (that the Corona was really worth the attention, which were unclear on that times) that made these countries arrive at this conclusion.

Even though for the second lockdown a too radical approach might not necessarily be the optimal one.
I see two approaches for a re-opened country seeing the second wave, closing a little bit early and being more loose on the measures to keep thing running better or closing a little bit on time to late and having a strong lockdown.

In these oscilations of closing and opening, I dont really know if the best approach is to radical close and radical open or create a less restricted closeness and less radical openness. I think only time could tell that.

It all depends on how the second wave will look like. If numbers will suddenly start to go exponentially up as in first the solution will have to be similar for my country.

 

[ceecee]

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to reopen northern Michigan by Memorial Day weekend | Bridge Magazine

 

[anticlimatic]

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to reopen northern Michigan by Memorial Day weekend | Bridge Magazine

Very reasonable. She won back some points in my book.

 

[Jaguar]

What's up with the pussies in some states who can't even handle wearing a mask? Losers.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to reopen northern Michigan by Memorial Day weekend | Bridge Magazine

State Sen. Ed McBroom, R-Vulcan, welcomed the news but questioned why it hadn’t come sooner for the U.P., where public health officials have confirmed far fewer COVID-19 cases than other parts of the state. As of Sunday, four U.P. counties had not confirmed any cases and only one — Marquette — had confirmed more than 50 cases since mid-March.

“Keeping us shutdown when we weren’t [seeing] a lot of benefits from that shutdown was unnecessary damage,” said McBroom, who told Bridge the governor’s office had not briefed him on the plan or sought his input.

[...]
LaFave has repeatedly called Whitmer “emperor” because of tight controls implemented during the coronavirus pandemic but said Monday he is “really happy, frankly,” to hear she plans to allow more businesses to reopen.

​

It's just toxic to paint her decisions as so unreasonable, as if she wasn't simply deferring/adhering to guidelines put for by the few people who merit any authority - something Trump SHOULD have done in January (we'll never know how many lives it would have saved OR how many small businesses it would have saved, but it seems indisputable some would have been saved) - and lends credence to the belief (by discrediting the caution she's shown) that any further measures being listed in this piece (like masks, distancing, etc) are overkill.

I mean, they don't even bother finding a medical hack to confirm she was being overcautious - it's just the local politicians saying "she's finally listening to reason" (read: "reason" = our bizarre belief that our own opinion of the threat coronavirus carries is somehow more valid than that of people who have been studying such things for 20+ years), and it's too bad that probably none of this is occurring to most people who read this piece.

eta: It seems worth mentioning again that if more credence were given to distancing, masks, etc, by Republican politicians, then opening up would happen faster. There would be more willingness to lift restrictions if there weren't rabid people foaming at the mouth at the prospect of taking precautions.

 

[ceecee]

State Sen. Ed McBroom, R-Vulcan, welcomed the news but questioned why it hadn’t come sooner for the U.P., where public health officials have confirmed far fewer COVID-19 cases than other parts of the state. As of Sunday, four U.P. counties had not confirmed any cases and only one — Marquette — had confirmed more than 50 cases since mid-March.

“Keeping us shutdown when we weren’t [seeing] a lot of benefits from that shutdown was unnecessary damage,” said McBroom, who told Bridge the governor’s office had not briefed him on the plan or sought his input.

[...]
LaFave has repeatedly called Whitmer “emperor” because of tight controls implemented during the coronavirus pandemic but said Monday he is “really happy, frankly,” to hear she plans to allow more businesses to reopen.

​

It's just toxic to paint her decisions as so unreasonable, as if she wasn't simply deferring/adhering to guidelines put for by the few people who merit any authority - something Trump SHOULD have done in January (we'll never know how many lives it would have saved OR how many small businesses it would have saved, but it seems indisputable some would have been saved) - and lends credence to the belief (by discrediting the caution she's shown) that any further measures being listed in this piece (like masks, distancing, etc) are overkill.

I mean, they don't even bother finding a medical hack to confirm she was being overcautious - it's just the local politicians saying "she's finally listening to reason" (read: "reason" = our bizarre belief that our own opinion of the threat coronavirus carries is somehow more valid than that of people who have been studying such things for 20+ years), and it's too bad that probably none of this is occurring to most people who read this piece.

eta: It seems worth mentioning again that if more credence were given to distancing, masks, etc, by Republican politicians, then opening up would happen faster. There would be more willingness to lift restrictions if there weren't rabid people foaming at the mouth at the prospect of taking precautions.

Yep. And this was ALWAYS the plan for Michigan. Open up the state from low population in the north to higher populations in the south before Memorial Day. There is no listening to reason, it was always what was going to happen as long as deaths and new cases plummeted, which they have. But they don't grasp that because they have low cases now doesn't mean it will stay that way. It won't come summer if idiots run up there. I'm glad she isn't caving to Trump or any of these neanderthals, though.

But I'm sure the fragile right wingers will find a way to fuck this up. I have total faith in them.

 

[Jaguar]

.

Florida man who called coronavirus ‘fake crisis’ gets infected, warns others | KXAN.com

 

[Peter Deadpan]

How COVID-19 Has Created a Childcare Catch-22 for Working Families

In my state, the stay-at-home order has been lifted, but childcare centers are not reopening until June 8th. The weekly unemployment survey specifically asks if you would be able to work and have childcare available, meaning that if you can work but don't have childcare because your childcare center is closed, you would be fucked and wouldn't qualify for payment.

 

[anticlimatic]

What's up with the pussies in some states who can't even handle wearing a mask? Losers.

Some people have a hard time breathing in them, and everyone has a hard time talking or listening with them. I use them at work a lot so I'm used to them, but I don't blame people if they can't. Maybe they're pussies, maybe they have a good reason, I like to er on the side of giving folks the benefit of the doubt. Plus how much does wearing masks really help anyway?