• You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community, you will have access to additional post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), view blogs, respond to polls, upload content, and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free, so please join our community today! Just click here to register. You should turn your Ad Blocker off for this site or certain features may not work properly. If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us by clicking here.

Coronavirus

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Can someone help me out? I tried to google the current R rate for the US and couldn't find it. Doesn't the CDC publish regular estimates? Over here it is recalculated on a daily or almost daily basis and most of the loosening of lockdown measures depends on the positive development of that number.

Am I using the wrong search terms or isn't it done that way in the USA?

I'm wondering if we're even doing enough testing to reliably come up with an estimate. Like why bother.

To answer more specifically, I read updates regularly and haven't seen it listed. In spite of the fact that a hard estimate would be remarkably helpful because it's pretty much exactly at the core of partisan shenanigans right now.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
19,869
I'm wondering if we're even doing enough testing to reliably come up with an estimate. Like why bother.

To answer more specifically, I read updates regularly and haven't seen it listed. In spite of the fact that a hard estimate would be remarkably helpful because it's pretty much exactly at the core of partisan shenanigans right now.



Tests aren't "unlimited asset" and therefore not everything is in "quantity". For this reason tests have to be focused into places and situations where people are vulnerable or is likely that they have the virus.


In other words 33 tests done on 1000 people as it is now for US probably isn't enough when you have out of control pandemic over the whole territory. Especially since healthcare workers probably get tested all the time. What basically means that less than 33 in 1000 people got tested at one point. What then in combination with behavior of the population isn't enough for "precise educated guess" in this issue.
 

ceecee

Coolatta® Enjoyer
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
15,923
MBTI Type
INTJ
Enneagram
8w9
Can someone help me out? I tried to google the current R rate for the US and couldn't find it. Doesn't the CDC publish regular estimates? Over here it is recalculated on a daily or almost daily basis and most of the loosening of lockdown measures depends on the positive development of that number.

Am I using the wrong search terms or isn't it done that way in the USA?

The CDC did publish the R rates but I haven't seen it listed. The Trump administration has already publicly said they will skew the numbers if they aren't favorable, I would assume federal agencies have already been told not to publish or make shit up.

Since the R rate can determine if another wave if infection is imminent, I would say simply not reporting these numbers federally would be super on brand for Trump.
 

Red Herring

Superwoman
Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
7,509
MBTI Type
INTP
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sp/sx
The CDC did publish the R rates but I haven't seen it listed. The Trump administration has already publicly said they will skew the numbers if they aren't favorable, I would assume federal agencies have already been told not to publish or make shit up.

Since the R rate can determine if another wave if infection is imminent, I would say simply not reporting these numbers federally would be super on brand for Trump.

The reason I am asking is because over here the loosening of the lockdown has been made conditional on R saying significantly below 1. The final target is to get to such a low number of new infections that the local health departments can handle them without being overstrained.

Obviously there are quite a few virologists and epidemiologists in the public limelight right now, but probably the most prominent one in Germany is Christian Drosten. He is a professor of virology at the Charité (biggest and most important hospital in Germany) and an expert in emerging viruses. He has years of experience researching the corona virus family. It's his specialty field and having him as one of the chief advisors to the government (as well as host a daily podcast calmly explaining the scientific background) is probably one of the reasons we have been faring fairly well so far (that and luck and halfway decent leadership). I like him.

Anyway, he recently talked about the reasoning behind making R an important factor in the loosening. He said that both medical experts and economists in Germany were in agreement that health and saving the economy were not at odds with but dependent on each other. A bad economy makes people sick and sick people are bad for the economy. According to him there are calculations around a Goldilocks style sweet spot for R. If it is over 1 you have exponential growth and crash the healthcare system as well as the economy. If you press measures so hard that you get it to 0.3 you save more people from Covid-19 but damage the economy so much that it'll cost more lives in the long run. Apparently the sweet spot that produces minimal damage to health and the economy is roughly around 0.75.

Germany is currently in that area but still vulnerable. For example the number recently went up briefly because of one or two cases with slaughterhouses with a high number of meatpackers getting sick at once (that we are handling this crises a little better doesn't mean we don't have the usual shitty exploitative working conditions of some industries)
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Here is a site listing the number by state.

That link was provided in this NYT piece.

It is difficult to assign the United States a single R0 figure. The country has multiple concurrent outbreaks, each with its own dynamics and each at a different point in its life cycle.

The former founders of Instagram set up a website that estimates state-by-state Rt values, a variation on R0 that accounts for rates of transmission. Though it is not associated with professional epidemiologists or public health experts, it has received heavy attention, reflecting the hunger for information on this useful but fuzzy metric.
 

Red Herring

Superwoman
Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
7,509
MBTI Type
INTP
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sp/sx
Here is a site listing the number by state.

That link was provided in this NYT piece.

It is difficult to assign the United States a single R0 figure. The country has multiple concurrent outbreaks, each with its own dynamics and each at a different point in its life cycle.

The former founders of Instagram set up a website that estimates state-by-state Rt values, a variation on R0 that accounts for rates of transmission. Though it is not associated with professional epidemiologists or public health experts, it has received heavy attention, reflecting the hunger for information on this useful but fuzzy metric.

Thanks!
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Apparently the sweet spot that produces minimal damage to health and the economy is roughly around 0.75.

Do you know if this estimate is specific to Germany, or if it's meant as a more universal guideline?
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
19,869
Do you know if this estimate is specific to Germany, or if it's meant as a more universal guideline?



It probably isn't fully universal (based on my local economic structure). However US and Germany probably have similar enough economy that the number generally stands.
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
It probably isn't fully universal (based on my local economic structure). However US and Germany probably have similar enough economy that the number generally stands.

It's hard to track down the most accurate number, but it's currently anticipated that somewhere between 25-55% of small businesses might permanently close so far (while Jeff Bezos is well on his way to becoming the first trillionaire). I don't think Germany is nearly dog-eat-dog, 'may the strongest survive' capitalist as we are. Mom and pop shops are getting f#cked hard (and interestingly, in red areas, blaming the Democratic governors*).

I wonder in which direction that would push the .75 recommendation, or if that'd change it at all. I'm guessing it would get pushed towards a higher number (a recommendation to open with higher rate of transmission where economy is less secure), but that's 100% guessing on my part.

Michigan music shop owner shuts doors for good, blames Gov. Whitmer: 'It's the closing of a dream'

 

ceecee

Coolatta® Enjoyer
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
15,923
MBTI Type
INTJ
Enneagram
8w9
It's hard to track down the most accurate number, but it's currently anticipated that somewhere between 25-55% of small businesses might permanently close so far (while Jeff Bezos is well on his way to becoming the first trillionaire). I don't think Germany is nearly dog-eat-dog, 'may the strongest survive' capitalist as we are. Mom and pop shops are getting f#cked hard (and interestingly, in red areas, blaming the Democratic governors*).

I wonder in which direction that would push the .75 recommendation, or if that'd change it at all. I'm guessing it would get pushed towards a higher number (a recommendation to open with higher rate of transmission where economy is less secure), but that's 100% guessing on my part.

Michigan music shop owner shuts doors for good, blames Gov. Whitmer: 'It's the closing of a dream'


Of course. The people "blaming" anyone will never blame Trump, who has far more power to help small businesses like this one than Gretchen. Logic and rational thinking has left these people entirely.
 

Red Herring

Superwoman
Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
7,509
MBTI Type
INTP
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sp/sx
The main point stands in any case. It's not health vs business. One requires the other.
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Of course. The people "blaming" anyone will never blame Trump, who has far more power to help small businesses like this one than Gretchen. Logic and rational thinking has left these people entirely.

I'm finding it just really sad. There isn't enough actual analysis flooding our news, that might actually inform people. I feel partly inclined to point out that's because Team 45 has taken measures to make sure expert information gets run past them first (and encourages people to fill the void with counterproductive conspiracy theories), but it's what we need more than anything - expert analysis, and lots of it, with as much bipartisan agreement as possible on who the experts are. (I realize asking for Shit Smear In Chief to agree is asking for too much, but his "LIBERATE!" :fullload: soapbox needs less airtime and other sane Republicans need to weigh in).
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
19,869
It's hard to track down the most accurate number, but it's currently anticipated that somewhere between 25-55% of small businesses might permanently close so far (while Jeff Bezos is well on his way to becoming the first trillionaire). I don't think Germany is nearly dog-eat-dog, 'may the strongest survive' capitalist as we are. Mom and pop shops are getting f#cked hard (and interestingly, in red areas, blaming the Democratic governors).

I wonder in which direction that would push the .75 recommendation, or if that'd change it at all. I'm guessing it would get pushed towards a higher number (a recommendation to open with higher rate of transmission where economy is less secure), but that's 100% guessing on my part.



Regarding the economy: I was thinking more in the sense what people do for a living. While Germany has much better organization of the government, what is kinda separate issue. In other words as the government has more paths to influence the economy the stronger lockdown you can implement. However the stronger you implement the lockdown the quicker you are ending the pandemic and have smaller economic losses, especially if you acted on time and you don't have to cure plenty of people. Here we basically froze the economy and focused on the pandemic, since you can't really save the economy until you have pandemic under control. Therefore I am not sure about the sweet spot, since for various countries it is different number. However I am getting impression that for Germany and US the number isn't that different in the case that the government is doing it's job. Since the structure of industries probably isn't that different and both countries are probably more linear in output through out the year.



In both countries you don't have what you have here: that tourism rises in one season your population for 25% and with people who have multiple times more money than the locals. Or that the agriculture that is also pretty seasonal industry is quite decent chunk of the economy (which can work fairly well even in the lockdown). From that perspective US and Germany probably aren't that different. Plus in both stock market really counts, while here I haven't seen anything about that in mainstream news in months. Especially since big business is generally public business (domestic or foreign). Also Germans and Americans would mostly freak out in the case that economy is down 70% and that you can't leave the town. While here that was generally "Meh, we have seen worse". However with this we nuked the pandemic and we didn't have to cure or bury mass of people. While frozen economy didn't really generate that many loses over the key month and half since it was frozen (and workers were on UBI). Plus since it was frozen it was easier to continue from where you stopped. Therefore for me the sweet spot is probably somewhere around that 0.3 that makes the Herring uncomfortable. Since for me the problem has to be solved before it becomes medical one. So I am for shock therapy if possible, especially if healthcare system or system in general isn't too ready for this. Otherwise you get what happened in US. Messy middle of the road path that just wasted time and money while solving neither side of the equation. Therefore the logical conclusion would be that Germany as usual was saved by it's order, while US in it's current shape should have probably went to our solution. Even if that would brake almost every local economic convention.
 

anticlimatic

Permabanned
Joined
Oct 17, 2013
Messages
3,299
MBTI Type
INTP
Coronavirus: How we decide what's safe to do

The new normal looks like this: Social lives carefully built around “risk reduction,” rather than the strict and absolute safety of isolated sheltering.

“We need to balance our needs with what we know about coronavirus,” said Stanford University communications professor Jeff Hancock, founding director of the Stanford Social Media Lab who is studying compliance with stay-at-home orders.

“Abstinence doesn’t work. Plans that are practical and recognize basic human needs will be more successful than those plans that don’t,” he said. “Do we need a vacation in Costa Rica with lots of friends? No. Do we need intimate and social moments? Yes.”

Risk isn’t binary, experts agreed. All-or-nothing approaches both have bad consequences.

Emerging research shows that the most dangerous settings are large gatherings of mixed social groups, where people who don’t know each other are close, sing, chat and commingle. Think San Francisco’s Outside Lands festival, where music lovers from far-flung locales are crowded together for hours. Indoor and confined areas, like bars and restaurants, are much worse than more solitary outdoor recreational activities, such as golf or hiking.

And time matters: brief moments of contact are better than hours.

Finally. Common sense seems to be catching up with our fear.
 

anticlimatic

Permabanned
Joined
Oct 17, 2013
Messages
3,299
MBTI Type
INTP
Other than a couple weeks, none of the outdoor stuff like fishing, golf or hiking have been off limits. It isn't now and it's not going to be.

Who cares? There's more to life than fishing and hiking. Even the hippies and rednecks I know are hiked and fished to their limit.
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Regarding the economy: I was thinking more in the sense what people do for a living. While Germany has much better organization of the government, what is kinda separate issue. In other words as the government has more paths to influence the economy the stronger lockdown you can implement. However the stronger you implement the lockdown the quicker you are ending the pandemic and have smaller economic losses, especially if you acted on time and you don't have to cure plenty of people. Here we basically froze the economy and focused on the pandemic, since you can't really save the economy until you have pandemic under control. Therefore I am not sure about the sweet spot, since for various countries it is different number. However I am getting impression that for Germany and US the number isn't that different in the case that the government is doing it's job. Since the structure of industries probably isn't that different and both countries are probably more linear in output through out the year.

Yeah, I did (more or less) get that the similarity would set us both apart from you. I was just wondering what kind of difference might exist on a smaller scale.

I mean, in addition to (I'm assuming, could be wrong) having so, so many little independent businesses in a more precarious state, they also don't have such a large pocket of the population perceiving things like "wearing a mask" as completely excessive, unnecessary government control (and who will indeed make a point of getting in other's faces without a mask to lash out at all this "excessive government control"). If people would concede to wear a mask, then I imagine the process of opening up could happen faster.
 

Z Buck McFate

Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
6,048
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sx/sp
Here are a couple Twitter threads articulating what I'm getting at better than I can:
3bf91c0b7a31d0ec6cb32a2c5b859b5b.png

The rest of this^ guy's thread is here.

164ab66c94ee852af0c4cb442be1d7d4.png


Frum's thread (here) is actually a response to the one above.

And so, as such, the U.S. 'sweet spot' will likely differ from Germany's. At least a bit.
 
Top