Coronavirus

[Jaguar]

How long before COVID sweeps the WH?

 

[Z Buck McFate]

I think it would be good for people to better understand the pros and cons of both approaches, rather than devolve into the usual juvenile partisan antics. Especially the reopening path, since that is the one we are on.

(Since you quoted me) My response to VG was actually about an attitude towards government - which is relevant to the thread in light of all the recent U.S. protests - and not about the specific tangent re: approach that you bring up in your response. You might not like how it veered from some point you were making, but it was relevant to his post and to the thread.

A bit of advice, with emphasis on #1:

Friendly reminder to all concerned for the sake of good mental health:

1) You can't control other people. Thinking you can, or wanting to, is irrational.
2) You can control yourself. This includes things you say. This includes things you say to people whose behavior you are disturbed by.
3) The only way you can influence other people's behavior without self-defeating side effects is persuasion, bribery, or exchange (Newton's third law).

Also, if you think that labeling my comments to VG as "juvenile partisan antics" is part of effective persuasion, then probably reflect a little harder on it. And remember that it's always actually available to simply step over/not respond to "juvenile partisan antics" that disturb you.

 

[Coriolis]

True, in numbers that ignore that US is #1 in Corona (in truth I think there are some few countries hiding numbers that could pass the US), but in terms of deaths per million or cases per million the US is not doing well, its still doing bad.

I made no judgment about how well or poorly the US is doing, but rather pointed out that raw numbers are not the best metric. I still think this is the case, despite [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]'s comments. Yes, population density and other factors about a society will affect how a pandemic plays out there, but it stands to reason that, other things being more or less equal, a larger country will experience more infections, hospitalizations, and deaths than a smaller one. So, simply saying the US has more cases than Country X is meaningless without also considering the sizes of the populations,

 

[Maou]

The 6-foot rule has already been proven worthless if someone coughs in a room without a mask on. I have a business card in my pocket and on the back I wrote, "Put on a mask, asshole." I've only had to hold it up once in public and I hope it stays that way. I hate wearing a mask, it fucks with my breathing. But I was wearing a mask even before my Governor made it mandatory. It's common sense, given the virulence of COVID. And, no, it is not like the flu. The flu doesn't have the ability to create micro blood clots in the lungs to the point where you're walking around fine and a half hour later you hit the floor dead, because it blocked the oxygen to the brain. It's been described as what one would expect to see with altitude sickness since your oxygen saturation in your blood can plummet quickly. That's why people in their 20's and 30's can have strokes no differently than someone in the 50's or 60's and beyond.

My mask protects you, and your mask protects me. If someone chooses not to wear a mask, they are saying "fuck you and die" to everyone around them. People have rights, but they don't have a right to harm me or anyone else by being a reckless fucker. And like they did when HIV came calling, I predict people will eventually start suing each other for COVID infections, or at least try. The mayor of Atlanta was horrified when she recently saw people walking in and out of stores at close range without masks on. Is that freedom? I think not. I call it stupidity.

In my city, you can't get into a grocery store without a mask and there is a line down the sidewalk to get into Whole Foods since they are allowing only a certain number of people into the store at a time. Do I agree with that level of restriction? Hell, yes. There is nothing more absurd than seeing a party caught on video with a room of packed kids and one says, "Well, if I didn't have COVID coming in, I will definitely have it when I leave." Idiocy.

I can go out for a walk in my neighborhood whenever I want or go for a drive. I told you about a month ago, there is no going back to normal. There will be a new normal and you're going to have to find a way to deal with it. We all have to.

I don't this this will be a new normal. Because I feel its overhyped, and just like previous pandemics. Information is constantly changing, and often times without being properly reviewed before shared. Way too much fear mongering in the news too. There is also the possibility of exaggerated numbers to avoid hospital bills by listing covid on death certificates. So the error margin on this, is huge. It could be a lot better than you think, or a lot worse than I think. But its far too soon, to claim we will never recover. If anything, we develop more healthy habits as a nation.

Personally, I have yet to hear about anyone I know, getting covid. There are only 12 covid patients at the biggest hospital in my area. Despite them shutting down an entire floor for it. (Source, my coworker's wife is a nurse there). There are also no food lines here, and honestly if it wasn't for the masks. I see hardly any difference since they reopened. I think I said it before, but counties are reporting no new deaths or cases. What did Ohio do right compared to other states? Probably civic duty is strong here, because of last year's tornado disaster helped prepare us.

 

[Vendrah]

I made no judgment about how well or poorly the US is doing, but rather pointed out that raw numbers are not the best metric. I still think this is the case, despite [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]'s comments. Yes, population density and other factors about a society will affect how a pandemic plays out there, but it stands to reason that, other things being more or less equal, a larger country will experience more infections, hospitalizations, and deaths than a smaller one. So, simply saying the US has more cases than Country X is meaningless without also considering the sizes of the populations,

Yeah, that whats the per capita and per million metrics are to fix for. To compare countries of different sizes in a more reasonable way.

 

[Luminous]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed somewhere and I missed it, but can someone [MENTION=195]Jaguar[/MENTION] explain why the stock market continues to go up and up despite all the people who've lost their jobs, the forecasted bad economic conditions, etc? It makes no sense to me. It makes no sense to people I know who know more about economics than I do.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Well, in USA everyone is an individual and formally every opinion has equal worth. Since opinions are sacred and everyone has the right to believe whatever they want. The only problem is that this isn't always practical, especially in the "medical emergency".

No. In the US, everyone has the same right to form and state an opinion. That does not give the opinions themselves equal worth. Our tradition of independence means we have the right to be wrong - individually - but not to harm another through our own error or ignorance.

There's a strange degradation that happens (in perception) when the expert opinion is presented by the Big Bad Media. Credentials have seemed to stop mattering.

On a more tangible level (one based more on direct experience of the 'expert' in question), most people wouldn't give a second thought to deferring to a surgeon telling them that the searing pain in their side is a burst appendix - and if they do, they'll at least tend to go to someone else with a medical degree for that second or third opinion. Or if a mechanic says a radiator needs to be replaced, most people who know little to nothing about car engines will defer to the mechanic and agree to have the radiator replaced - especially if repeated experience of a mechanic has been that they effectively fix a problem and charge honest rates (the type of thing which comes to light in discussing the matter with people we know and comparing experiences). Quite often we'll extend a bit of extra deference towards experts that people we know have come to personally trust, if we trust those individual's judgments. But the point is, we can't possible be experts of all things - medical doctors need to defer to car mechanics, medical doctors and car mechanics both need to defer to gardeners about lawn maintenance, etc - and deference isn't a weakness. Mastering the art of deference (i.e. how to not get scammed) and effectively delegating tasks to the expert most qualified to handle them is actually an impressive strength.

But there's something weird that happens when it happens en masse and/or aligns with politics. Trust/deference is extended to people whose political views align over and above actual education, work experience and track record. There are people 100% buying the theory off Youtube that masks actually make people sicker. There are people waving protest signs saying "Think for YOURSELF!" - as if the average person could begin to know if masks will help more than Fauci could know. I guess people have to experience the pandemic getting worse first? Until then, they WILL believe it's some weird thing about the government wanting to control them and there's nothing that can put a dent in that. Which is unfortunate, because that hard lesson isn't going to just harm/kill some of the people who need to learn it, it's also going to harm/kill healthcare professionals who will have to treat them. And the grocery store clerks who otherwise wouldn't get exposed. And the police officers monitoring the protests, with protesters getting right up in their face - without a mask - and yelling at them. Et cetera.

 

[ceecee]

I don't this this will be a new normal. Because I feel its overhyped, and just like previous pandemics. Information is constantly changing, and often times without being properly reviewed before shared. Way too much fear mongering in the news too. There is also the possibility of exaggerated numbers to avoid hospital bills by listing covid on death certificates. So the error margin on this, is huge. It could be a lot better than you think, or a lot worse than I think. But its far too soon, to claim we will never recover. If anything, we develop more healthy habits as a nation.

Personally, I have yet to hear about anyone I know, getting covid. There are only 12 covid patients at the biggest hospital in my area. Despite them shutting down an entire floor for it. (Source, my coworker's wife is a nurse there). There are also no food lines here, and honestly if it wasn't for the masks. I see hardly any difference since they reopened. I think I said it before, but counties are reporting no new deaths or cases. What did Ohio do right compared to other states? Probably civic duty is strong here, because of last year's tornado disaster helped prepare us.

Ohio Coronavirus: 23,016 Cases and 1,306 Deaths (COVID-19 ) - Worldometer

 

[Virtual ghost]

[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] Like I said, the advice you are offering is already part of our internal debate. Since the US is split, parts of it will be addressing Covid19 differently, but since Covid is Covid, nothing less than full cooperation from everyone will allow us to tactically succeed the way your country tactically succeeded. The end result is that the infection WILL spread across the US faster than it would if we employed your country's strategy.

There is no other outcome possibility. Any effort towards a different possibility is wasted. That was ultimately my point. There is sound logic both ways, and both ways have high price tags. I think it would be good for people to better understand the pros and cons of both approaches, rather than devolve into the usual juvenile partisan antics. Especially the reopening path, since that is the one we are on.

Yes, US probably will not find common approach to this. However for me that still doesn't mean that this is rational or something about what we shouldn't talk about. To be honest I am quite annoyed with American public discourse since it is becoming quite obvious that you guys will blow up the country if we sum all of this circumstances and trends. What evidently shifts the world towards open dictatorship. Because opposition to it across the world has scattered itself, is only for fully peaceful solutions at the face of open totalitarianism, etc. What here at the outskirts of the first world and at the border of clear Russian sphere of influence is being openly felt. Formally I am your NATO ally, but I am getting the impression that the whole team is scattered and the best player is having schizophrenic attack with fever. What makes me frustrated since here our frozen wars can activate at anytime if balance is lost. Some NATO countries are even openly passing Russian supplies to pro-russian forces in the region since their democracy imploded. Just today unrelated to virus our minister of defense resigned over a local issue and he was one of the links to US. None of this is REALLY BAD but step by step by step the integrity of the position is being eroded on a number of ways. I mean from my roof I see mountains that are in openly Pro-russian territory and we already had the war with them (the one I am mentioning too often).



Plus I don't agree that I have same positions as American left, close but not quite. My or my local ideas go far further than American left. Which generally knows in which direction they want to go but from what I see they lack the details. Because in US all of this isl unprecedented, while here this "We've seen worse. Deploy A, C, D and G." What in my book is big difference.

 

[Maou]

Yeah, that whats the per capita and per million metrics are to fix for. To compare countries of different sizes in a more reasonable way.

Also need to factor in actual tests done properly/at all. Some countries tested worst/better than others, and thats a direct influence on total cases. You can report zero new cases, because you didn't test if you wanted.

 

[Vendrah]

Also need to factor in actual tests done properly/at all. Some countries tested worst/better than others, and thats a direct influence on total cases. You can report zero new cases, because you didn't test if you wanted.

Thats also true, because some countries like mine are masking numbers indeed.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I made no judgment about how well or poorly the US is doing, but rather pointed out that raw numbers are not the best metric. I still think this is the case, despite [MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION]'s comments. Yes, population density and other factors about a society will affect how a pandemic plays out there, but it stands to reason that, other things being more or less equal, a larger country will experience more infections, hospitalizations, and deaths than a smaller one. So, simply saying the US has more cases than Country X is meaningless without also considering the sizes of the populations,

Ok, I can play this game as well.

If the numbers can be trusted US has evidently more cases than China, India or EU, which all have visibly more people.

 

[cascadeco]

Thats also true, because some countries like mine are masking numbers indeed.

How much worse do you sense/know your numbers actually are? You are the only Brazilian I 'know' so I am curious for the info. Your numbers haven't looked good on worldometer for a while now, so is it greater numbers of cases and deaths than what is reflected? Any particular areas with more issues? Ie cities, rich/poor, Amazonian/rural/farming populations, etc?

 

[Virtual ghost]

How much worse do you sense/know your numbers actually are? You are the only Brazilian I 'know' so I am curious for the info. Your numbers haven't looked good on worldometer for a while now, so is it greater numbers of cases and deaths than what is reflected? Any particular areas with more issues? Ie cities, rich/poor, Amazonian/rural/farming populations, etc?

I heard on my local news something that Manaus that is the biggest city in the whole Amazon basin is hot spot.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Thats also true, because some countries like mine are masking numbers indeed.

Probably, but I would dare to say your country is also hard to control in this issue. Area is quite substantial (close to US), density of population is ether quite high or pretty low in most places. Transport through the country isn't too well developed. Healthcare system isn't that well developed either. Not the best cards in the world even if you care about the pandemic.

 

[anticlimatic]

So, yeah, I can say that I finish what I had to say in "this conversation".

Congratulations.

(Since you quoted me) My response to VG was actually about an attitude towards government - which is relevant to the thread in light of all the recent U.S. protests - and not about the specific tangent re: approach that you bring up in your response. You might not like how it veered from some point you were making, but it was relevant to his post and to the thread.

A bit of advice, with emphasis on #1:



Also, if you think that labeling my comments to VG as "juvenile partisan antics" is part of effective persuasion, then probably reflect a little harder on it. And remember that it's always actually available to simply step over/not respond to "juvenile partisan antics" that disturb you.

I was only using your post to make a point to VG that I had been working on. I have no interest in persuading a fish to walk.

Yes, US probably will not find common approach to this. However for me that still doesn't mean that this is rational or something about what we shouldn't talk about. To be honest I am quite annoyed with American public discourse since it is becoming quite obvious that you guys will blow up the country if we sum all of this circumstances and trends. What evidently shifts the world towards open dictatorship. Because opposition to it across the world has scattered itself, is only for fully peaceful solutions at the face of open totalitarianism, etc. What here at the outskirts of the first world and at the border of clear Russian sphere of influence is being openly felt. Formally I am your NATO ally, but I am getting the impression that the whole team is scattered and the best player is having schizophrenic attack with fever. What makes me frustrated since here our frozen wars can activate at anytime if balance is lost. Some NATO countries are even openly passing Russian supplies to pro-russian forces in the region since their democracy imploded. Just today unrelated to virus our minister of defense resigned over a local issue and he was one of the links to US. None of this is REALLY BAD but step by step by step the integrity of the position is being eroded on a number of ways. I mean from my roof I see mountains that are in openly Pro-russian territory and we already had the war with them (the one I am mentioning too often).



Plus I don't agree that I have same positions as American left, close but not quite. My or my local ideas go far further than American left. Which generally knows in which direction they want to go but from what I see they lack the details. Because in US all of this isl unprecedented, while here this "We've seen worse. Deploy A, C, D and G." What in my book is big difference.

I agree it's worth talking about, which I think is what we are doing currently. It's difficult with the volume of unknowns, though. The best either of us can produce, from opposing arguments, is essentially just a guess at which strategy will be the better one. Anyone who feels with certainty that they know the path forward is lying to themselves and doesn't deserve a seat at the table discussing it. What's interesting in this situation, as it relates to the Jungian functions oddly enough, is that even though we have very little data to work with, any decision we make- any different national policy on this issue in response- is going to generate much of the data we actually need in Ne/Se-->Ti/Fi fashion. This is why I think it's good that a lot of different countries are trying a lot of different things. In the long run, the failures and successes predicated on "best guesses" as to which the best way forward will be, will be what informs us on how to deal with it in the future. How will our two countries look, I wonder, a year from now- economically, and sociologically?

 

[Vendrah]

How much worse do you sense/know your numbers actually are? You are the only Brazilian I 'know' so I am curious for the info. Your numbers haven't looked good on worldometer for a while now, so is it greater numbers of cases and deaths than what is reflected? Any particular areas with more issues? Ie cities, rich/poor, Amazonian/rural/farming populations, etc?

Well, one study a week or two ago already has shown that the numbers of deaths are at least 2x more than reality, with 3x times more than a reality being the most likely scenario. In case of Manaus, 3-4x.
Partially due to low numbers of tests, some COVID cases are being classified as pneumonia or some sort of respiratory death. Recently, Bolsonaro troops manage to put a new temporarily law/act stating that doctors can simply put "unknown" cause of death and skip any death reason/motives analysis. And about two months ago, Bolsonaro himself, at the starting of Corona crisis, had take part of transparency act/law of Brazil down, and thats likely to avoid being charged of under-report the numbers. Some local republicans (the equivalent of, they dont have that name here) here have been losing their own family, and, at their deaths, they have been protesting and managing to change their familiar reason of death from COVID to pneumonia because they see this virus as a creation of the left to take Bolsonaro out of presidency. This is no joke, its real, I dont know if it is normal although.

Another one, from prestigious Unis, has shown that the number of infected are at least 5x more than reported, with 10x being likely, but these Unis had that number calculated based on the number of deaths, that it is at least 2x times more.
So, basically, its 2-3x more deaths and 10-30x more cases, with 2.5x more deaths and 20x more cases being realistic.

Well, the virus is good spread. And we dont really have much realistic stats in the most basic levels, so i cant tell you about rich/poor stuff and local politics are using the US stats to say that here the poor and people with black skin are going to suffer more as well.
I havent paid much attention to regions by a week or two; But by a week or two the worst cases were in the southeast, like São Paulo (St Paul) or Rio de Janeiro (January´s River), with Manaus being more recent. The Amazonian area was one of the last parts of the country to get the virus (if early/border lockdown were taken serious, these parts would be fully operational now).
And yeah, the virus is getting to native-indians in the last week, they are a lot worried but it is not a big deal for them yet.

At least half of the capitals are having the health system saturated, mine included, and yet the republicans here are in their super fight to stop the quarantine.

Probably, but I would dare to say your country is also hard to control in this issue. Area is quite substantial (close to US), density of population is ether quite high or pretty low in most places. Transport through the country isn't too well developed. Healthcare system isn't that well developed either. Not the best cards in the world even if you care about the pandemic.

What you say is completely true.
Yet we havent really had a lockdown.
Some mayors and state governors have been enforcing quarantine, but not really forcing.
We do have the far right protests, but also we have some few employers forcing employees to protest.
This country runs many lies and we do not actually know what % of the country is in quarantine, a few sources estimated that it is between 40-50% of people on quarantine. President is doing whatever he can to sabotage quarantine and he is already masking the numbers. Of course, this president dont work alone. There are a lot of people who are guilty into this.

I already accepted that a lot of people are going to die anyway and there is nothing I can do about it.

EDIT: So, yeah, my country is following what some republicans here are advising here, and there are some places where there are not even graves to attend the demand of dead people. Some people are being buried somewhere that is not even a cemetery.

 

[cascadeco]

Well, one study a week or two ago already has shown that the numbers of deaths are at least 2x more than reality, with 3x times more than a reality being the most likely scenario. In case of Manaus, 3-4x.
Partially due to low numbers of tests, some COVID cases are being classified as pneumonia or some sort of respiratory death. Recently, Bolsonaro troops manage to put a new temporarily law/act stating that doctors can simply put "unknown" cause of death and skip any death reason/motives analysis. And about two months ago, Bolsonaro himself, at the starting of Corona crisis, had take part of transparency act/law of Brazil down, and thats likely to avoid being charged of under-report the numbers. Some local republicans (the equivalent of, they dont have that name here) here have been losing their own family, and, at their deaths, they have been protesting and managing to change their familiar reason of death from COVID to pneumonia because they see this virus as a creation of the left to take Bolsonaro out of presidency. This is no joke, its real, I dont know if it is normal although.

Another one, from prestigious Unis, has shown that the number of infected are at least 5x more than reported, with 10x being likely, but these Unis had that number calculated based on the number of deaths, that it is at least 2x times more.
So, basically, its 2-3x more deaths and 10-30x more cases, with 2.5x more deaths and 20x more cases being realistic.

Well, the virus is good spread. And we dont really have much realistic stats in the most basic levels, so i cant tell you about rich/poor stuff and local politics are using the US stats to say that here the poor and people with black skin are going to suffer more as well.
I havent paid much attention to regions by a week or two; But by a week or two the worst cases were in the southeast, like São Paulo (St Paul) or Rio de Janeiro (January´s River), with Manaus being more recent. The Amazonian area was one of the last parts of the country to get the virus (if early/border lockdown were taken serious, these parts would be fully operational now).
And yeah, the virus is getting to native-indians in the last week, they are a lot worried but it is not a big deal for them yet.

At least half of the capitals are having the health system saturated, mine included, and yet the republicans here are in their super fight to stop the quarantine.



What you say is completely true.
Yet we havent really had a lockdown.
Some mayors and state governors have been enforcing quarantine, but not really forcing.
We do have the far right protests, but also we have some few employers forcing employees to protest.
This country runs many lies and we do not actually know what % of the country is in quarantine, a few sources estimated that it is between 40-50% of people on quarantine. President is doing whatever he can to sabotage quarantine and he is already masking the numbers. Of course, this president dont work alone. There are a lot of people who are guilty into this.

I already accepted that a lot of people are going to die anyway and there is nothing I can do about it.

EDIT: So, yeah, my country is following what some republicans here are advising here, and there are some places where there are not even graves to attend the demand of dead people. Some people are being buried somewhere that is not even a cemetery.

Thank you so much for the information.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Congratulations.



I was only using your post to make a point to VG that I had been working on. I have no interest in persuading a fish to walk.



I agree it's worth talking about, which I think is what we are doing currently. It's difficult with the volume of unknowns, though. The best either of us can produce, from opposing arguments, is essentially just a guess at which strategy will be the better one. Anyone who feels with certainty that they know the path forward is lying to themselves and doesn't deserve a seat at the table discussing it. What's interesting in this situation, as it relates to the Jungian functions oddly enough, is that even though we have very little data to work with, any decision we make- any different national policy on this issue in response- is going to generate much of the data we actually need in Ne/Se-->Ti/Fi fashion. This is why I think it's good that a lot of different countries are trying a lot of different things. In the long run, the failures and successes predicated on "best guesses" as to which the best way forward will be, will be what informs us on how to deal with it in the future. How will our two countries look, I wonder, a year from now- economically, and sociologically?

Honestly ?


I am sorry but there are no real unknowns in the terms of actions. On everything US has done you just should have simply given more money to the people instead of corporations, so that un-essenetial people stay completely at home over the last 2 months. Plus it wouldn't hurt that the entire action started about 3-4 weeks earlier (and therefore lasted shorter). In the case of that there really wouldn't be no real problems and you would have the numbers more like European countries that are cleaning up their territory from the active cases. Since the herd immunity is basically destined to fail out of simple reason that for this you need it in 80-90% of the population that need to be infected. What means that you can't do that quickly without causing uncontrolled pandemic that will evidently spill the healthcare system and kill huge amounts of people, what will probably brake the economy completely and permanently. Plus even if you manage this somehow it is questionable how long immunity lasts and will this defend against the mutations. Therefore the best way is to stay away from this as much as possible, especially since that isn't too hard to achieve with proper governing.




Future:

Your country has a downward trend for years so I doubt that the pandemic will fix that. The only real question is how big the damage will get and how will that effect November vote. Complete chaos isn't 100% of the table, especially in some more specific parts of the country.


My country is linked to EU and what happens to the union that will define our fate. Locally pandemic will not make too much damaged but it will transform global landscape in which we live. Further pressure on the democracy from the east is quite probable. Right wins upcoming elections (which is generally nothing like your right).

What you say is completely true.
Yet we havent really had a lockdown.
Some mayors and state governors have been enforcing quarantine, but not really forcing.
We do have the far right protests, but also we have some few employers forcing employees to protest.
This country runs many lies and we do not actually know what % of the country is in quarantine, a few sources estimated that it is between 40-50% of people on quarantine. President is doing whatever he can to sabotage quarantine and he is already masking the numbers. Of course, this president dont work alone. There are a lot of people who are guilty into this.

I already accepted that a lot of people are going to die anyway and there is nothing I can do about it.

EDIT: So, yeah, my country is following what some republicans here are advising here, and there are some places where there are not even graves to attend the demand of dead people. Some people are being buried somewhere that is not even a cemetery.

Well I am geography nerd so I know many general facts about the world.
Plus I like to use google earth to explore distant places where I will probably never go or anytime soon. So when you sum 2 and 2 ....


Also worldometer just increased to +9600 for Brazil (+700 dead). What is serious even for the country of this size.
But I said from the start, the entire so called third word will probably be a disaster zone. Since there just isn't enough of infrastructure to keep things under control: from hospitals, to clean bathrooms, available soap, space for social distancing ... etc.

 

[Virtual ghost]

US just passed million active cases milestone.