Coronavirus

[Virtual ghost]

I agree that it seems like that rapid vaccination would solve that problem, but then there's the ethical problem of consent. Also it's a bit risky, and maybe not justifiably so, to use an experimental vaccine on a large population for a virus with a 98% survival rate.

See the link above in my reply to RH. It appears from that data that Delta is heading down the path of avoiding the current vaccines.

The vaccines aren't experimental. They passed through the formal trials and there are ones that use older technologies. The vaccines aren't perfect but they aren't formally experimental, especially when the doses have have been given in the billions.



Also the vaccines still fairly well protect against delta if your general health isn't really bad. However the next mutation that will come out of Delta could easily spill the glass and then there is no real going back. We would have to start basically from scratch and economy probably can't wait that long. Plus the mutations will probably continue and good portion of the world can't organize proper lockdown (due to money, infrastructure or the mindset). Plus the idea that there is a 98% survival rate is misleading. That applies when the healthcare system is available physically and financially. Therefore when it isn't the death rate is closer to 10% if you have age structure and climate as most developed countries. Not to mention that real problem isn't even death but long covid and organ damage that really lowers the quality of your life. Since here "what doesn't kill me make me stronger" doesn't really stand.


Vaccines aren't 100% perfect but by ignoring them and all other measures you basically make sure that the whole thing is going off cliff (what is evidently more than "risky").

 

[FemMecha]

 

[Abcdenfp]

Which country (doesn't seem to be the US)?

The Bahamas

 

[JAVO]

The vaccines aren't experimental. They passed through the formal trials and there are ones that use older technologies. The vaccines aren't perfect but they aren't formally experimental, especially when the doses have have been given in the billions.

In the US, they are formally experimental. Safety trials are ongoing. The US FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization, which is the only reason they're allowed to be used without being enrolled in a clinical trial.

Emergency Use Authorization for Vaccines Explained | FDA

Also the vaccines still fairly well protect against delta if your general health isn't really bad. However the next mutation that will come out of Delta could easily spill the glass and then there is no real going back. We would have to start basically from scratch and economy probably can't wait that long. Plus the mutations will probably continue and good portion of the world can't organize proper lockdown (due to money, infrastructure or the mindset). Plus the idea that there is a 98% survival rate is misleading. That applies when the healthcare system is available physically and financially. Therefore when it isn't the death rate is closer to 10% if you have age structure and climate as most developed countries. Not to mention that real problem isn't even death but long covid and organ damage that really lowers the quality of your life. Since here "what doesn't kill me make me stronger" doesn't really stand.


Vaccines aren't 100% perfect but by ignoring them and all other measures you basically make sure that the whole thing is going off cliff (what is evidently more than "risky").

The death rate is much higher in countries which aren't familiar with the treatment protocols which are most effective. For example, in New York City in the early stages, many patients were being put on a ventilator with pressures high enough to cause fatal lung damage.


Here is one study I came across which indicates natural infection produces superior immunity compared to vaccination in one specific aspect:

Antibody Evolution after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination | bioRxiv


And given apparent vaccine failure and unlikely herd immunity from either vaccines or natural infection (due to adaptive variants), we'll all just have to live with COVID and rely on keeping our immune systems robust.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The death rate is much higher in countries which aren't familiar with the treatment protocols which are most effective. For example, in New York City in the early stages, many patients were being put on a ventilator with pressures high enough to cause fatal lung damage.


Here is one study I came across which indicates natural infection produces superior immunity compared to vaccination in one specific aspect:

Antibody Evolution after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination | bioRxiv


And given apparent vaccine failure and unlikely herd immunity from either vaccines or natural infection (due to adaptive variants), we'll all just have to live with COVID and rely on keeping our immune systems robust.

Here we will just have to agree to disagree. Since we live in different political and economic systems.
In other words you sound as someone who doesn't have healthcare as a human right and never experienced life with plenty of benefits. So you will perhaps indeed have to live with COVID around for the rest of your life. But when I am looking at my cards I am not 100% sure of that. What is kinda why I told you that US is too focused on vaccine debate, which is only a part of the measures with which you have to fight the pandemic. Here when you get sick you get a paid sick leave, what means that you will infect far less people. Here you can also go to a hospital and get a full treatment there for 0$ in out of pocket money. Also here the government is giving stimulus every month and that allows mass spreading places to stay closed but surviving. However since the government is providing so much stimulus it gets much more tax money in return, since the unemployment spike never happened. What greatly eases funding to the stimulus. Here the role of the vaccine is just to to be one of the measures which slows down the virus, while in your place it is basically the only measure. So if that isn't perfect it is basically game over. While here that logic doesn't stand. As I said a number of times: here in Croatia, last year we exterminated the virus with a strong lockdown in the spring. However we didn't keep our borders closed due to complex reasons and therefore we got the virus again. But even this summer we managed to have all regions bellow 100 active known cases and some even got covid free on some days (again, but without any obvious lockdown). Therefore this can be solved if you try hard enough and then close the borders towards others that still didn't solve their part of the problem.


The purpose of the vaccine is that it slows down the spread since with it people already have antibodies ready, plus it prevents almost all serious cases of disease. What is good for the individuals, especially since that is basically the most contagious situation you can have. So with the financial help of the government, masks, mass testing, education on the issue and vaccines this circle can evidently be broken. But people who reject pretty much all of those measures or all of them will have to live in the COVID reality. In that part I fully agree.

 

[FemMecha]

U.S. governors banning mask mandates at local schools - well so much for small government, so much for minimal government intrusion.

Schools, public or otherwise, should be allowed to choose their policies and families should be allowed to keep students at home or create their own homeschooling groups without truancy penalties.

^That position is actually the more libertarian one, so the Right-wingers cheering on their governors hyper control over local schools are total hypocrites. They love government imposed control, just as long as it fits with their agenda.

 

[Virtual ghost]

From worldometer:
Record day in new cases for Mississippi. Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, South Carolina and Georgia the worst day since January.
The numbers are still coming in so some other states could still join the club.

 

[ceecee]

U.S. FDA aims to give full approval to Pfizer vaccine on Monday -NYT | Reuters

Ready for the BUT IT'S NOT FDA APPROVED!!! goalpost moving in 5...4...3...2..1

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

U.S. FDA aims to give full approval to Pfizer vaccine on Monday -NYT | Reuters

Ready for the BUT IT'S NOT FDA APPROVED!!! goalpost moving in 5...4...3...2..1

I like the goalpost moving that happened with that transgender woman in the Olympics (watch as she beat everyone else, checkmate feminists), and then when she actually didn't do that well, they had to say that "uhhh.. yeah but she's twice the age of everyone else!.... if she was the same age she would have beat them all for sure".

 

[Totenkindly]

Donald Trump booed at Alabama rally after encouraging his supporters to get vaccinated against COVID-19, video shows

yeah, he got the vaccination back in Jan, but was still misleading people. For a guy who milks every drop of vitriol he can out of his followers' hatred for sensible health policy, he sure didn't have any issue dipping into expensive COVID medical treatments when he got sick or shooting himself up with the vaccine as soon as he got a chance. Pathetic. Now he's created a monster that even if he says to take the vaccine, they're not going to listen; swift move, asshat.

The booing continues, the monster lives!
Mo Brooks was booed by Trump rally attendees after he told them to move on from 2020 'election theft'


And more of this fallout:

A Florida mom lost her 2 sons to COVID-19 in the span of 12 hours after they refused to get the vaccine
Before dying of COVID-19, mom of four pleads: 'I need my kids to get vaccinated'
A radio host skeptical of vaccines dies of covid-19 in the US - Market Research Telecast

I do think there can be cause for some small groups to avoid a vaccination -- not everyone avoids it for the same reasons -- but i don't have much sympathy for people who have the opportunity to understand COVID is no joke, who can see the historical importance of vaccinations, and who just don't bother because of their "freedoms" and bad science and also encourage others to not get it, then end up getting COVID. They not only hurt themselves but confuse a lot of other people who need the vaccination. And then you get the slime in bad faith who play off these people and stoke their fears and refusal of the vaccine, while at the same time quietly go get immunized and have access to the best medical treatment. I can't even begin to describe how angry that makes me -- it's not even like they actually believe it themselves, they're just playing people for influence. It's such a cynical approach to social influencing.

I like the goalpost moving that happened with that transgender woman in the Olympics (watch as she beat everyone else, checkmate feminists), and then when she actually didn't do that well, they had to say that "uhhh.. yeah but she's twice the age of everyone else!.... if she was the same age she would have beat them all for sure".

yeah, basically for all the bitching, we sure don't see transwomen showing up in high-end athletic contests. Even the events that are trotted out, typically that transwoman has also been beaten fairly often by her competitors in other similar events during the year.

 

[Virtual ghost]

My evening news said that Pfizer is creating the upgraded vaccine that should protect better from the Delta variant. What will probably come into play when the majority will need booster shoot with time.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Worldometer Mexico


Mexico evidently has a problem in new cases. Pritty similar is with Japan as well.

 

[FemMecha]

Today the 7 day average in the U.S. is the same as last Nov 15 after all the school openings and Halloween parties. 150+K/day. We are more than half-way to the peak number of last year 250+K new cases a day. It's not even flu season. Numbers were actually going down this time last year. Estimating twice as bad pandemic this year compared to last is conservative. The trajectory indicates greater, but it could be far more extreme than twice unless something mitigates it, but what if high vaccination rates don't? Behavior isn't going to change. If I saw a potential mitigating factor, then I could image a scenario with lower numbers, but there's nothing.

Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times

 

[Abcdenfp]

My evening news said that Pfizer is creating the upgraded vaccine that should protect better from the Delta variant. What will probably come into play when the majority will need booster shoot with time.

agreed, I had astrazenca and will get the Pfizer as my booster.

 

[FemMecha]

What do people think of this Dr. John Campbell? He is moderately optimistic in his evaluations of the pandemic. I thought I should post it in part as a balance to my other posts. I lean towards thinking he may lean further towards optimism than will be the reality, but maybe he's right.

natural immunity combined with vaccine...

leveling off...

 

[FemMecha]

This is an interesting and brief article about the epsilon variant. Interesting that in the lab "Epsilon version proved to be more infectious than previous variants, and researchers have discovered three changes in its spike proteins. One change was in the receptor binding domain, a fragment that helps the virus gain entry to host cells, Dador reported. This is the part of the virus targeted by vaccines, and the variation could make the Epsilon version up to 70% less vulnerable to the COVID-19 shot."

"In real-world settings, however, vaccines still proved effective against the Epsilon variant."

KABC: What Do You Need to Know About the Epsilon Variant and Its Risks?

I don't have a particular point, but shared this because it is interesting. Same with the previous video. I try to keep an adapting perspective in place of hard conclusions.

Edit: This is another article about pandemic predictions from Science.
New SARS-CoV-2 variants have changed the pandemic. What will the virus do next? | Science | AAAS

 

[Red Herring]

This is the development of infection numbers (known cases per 100.000 inhabitants) in Germany:

(very neatly divided into a first, second and third wave which always went hand in hand with the losening or toughening of compulsory lockdown measures... we are now the the beginning of the fourth wave)

These are deaths by (or "with") Covid-19 (total deaths per day):

See how the first and second wave of the two graphs overlap rather neatly? But then the third wave deaths are suddenly much, much flatter? Guess what had happened at that point? That's immediately after vaccination phase 1 and 2 (elderly and at-risk). By now 75% of the adult population has received at least one jab, about 70% of the adults are fully vaccinated.


Also, here in Europe the vaccines didn't get an emergency admission but went through the regular admissions process. And the research had been in the pipeline for years, which is why it went so fast (just repeating that because so many people still talk about how they are not anti-vaxx but are worried the vaccines might have been rushed and therefor unsafe).

 

[Red Herring]

The trend over here (not just in my state) is to have two sets of rules - one for the fully vaccinated or recently recovered and one for the rest. The vaccinated/recovered can increasingly go to restaurants, concerts, etc. and get back their normal life while the unvaccinated need to show a recent test (that they will now have to pay for themselves) or they're not be allowed to join public places and events.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

i was really optimistic about humanity getting through this back in 2020. Now, I'm pretty jaded and disillusioned by the way we've handled it, and a part of me thinks we deserve extinction.

 

[Virtual ghost]

i was really optimistic about humanity getting through this back in 2020. Now, I'm pretty jaded and disillusioned by the way we've handled it, and a part of me thinks we deserve extinction.

There is no need to be so none selective. The irony is that right now we are basically in the pure "survival of the fittest" movie, the one that many wanted to see very badly from first hand. Therefore those that can cope with reality will live. While those that can't probably wouldn't or they will be paying huge medical bills and starve anyway. Especially since the combination of winter and delta will probably prove to be quite unforgiving combination if you don't live around equator. I know that this is stupid but it seems that we will just have to let all these people go and protect who we can. They have chosen that this will be their asteroid and that is pretty much it.