Coronavirus

[Tellenbach]

Starting lockdowns were necessary globally because sudden global pandemic exploded the need for masks and various sanitizers. Therefore people needed to stop working in order that the system can stockpile enough of them and rise production to sufficient levels.

That's not the reason for the lockdown in the USA. The reasons given were the initial models (faulty estimates) of 2 to 3 million dead in the USA and the lack of ventilators in hospitals. Basically, the leaders were scared by our public health officials.

So when you do the math we completely beat them in deaths per capita, since we did things much more by the book. Actually our lockdown was so decent that for a few weeks we didn't even have any new cases at all. So in the case that the virus didn't got imported from abroad again that would be it for us.

There are at least 2 explanations for this.
1) Croatia didn't get many infected visitors from other nations like the USA and Sweden.
2) Nations, like New Zealand that completely quarantined foreign travel did great. I don't know if Croatia did the same.
3) Nations with younger populations will naturally do better. (I didn't look up the demographics of Sweden or Croatia, but this would explain some of the differences between nations.)

The 2nd strategy is not an option for a nation like the USA, so we have to look for other successful strategies.

Therefore now when Sweden does things more by the book they have a few hundred cases a day and they lose 1 to 2% of those people.

I'm not aware that Sweden's changed policies. Are you sure about this? I haven't heard of Sweden locking down schools or businesses during the summer.

Therefore just praising Sweden is simply shortsighted.

Right now, Sweden's doing better than the USA and California. California's been on lockdown very early on and our Daily Deaths graph, while on the decline is still around 60 deaths/day. The worst part is, this thing could go on for another 5 months, even with the lockdown. Anyway, thanks for the discussion. Congrats to Croatia; you guys did great.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That's not the reason for the lockdown in the USA. The reasons given were the initial models (faulty estimates) of 2 to 3 million dead in the USA and the lack of ventilators in hospitals. Basically, the leaders were scared by our public health officials.

That is the talking point that didn't surface in US debates on the issue but you would have stayed open for sure if that was possible (politics, wall street etc would demand it). However large stack of supplies that was surely needed wasn't really there since demand for masks evidently skyrocketed over night. You locked the country due to to the fears of mass death, but that fear was driven by the idea that you aren't ready. No one needs a mask to everyone needs a mark is a pretty big logistical difference if you think about it. Plus every healthcare system needs time to adjust to the pandemic of this size. Since hospitals basically have to be remade form inside in order that they can keep doing their job. You literally need to make more room for extra patients and isolate well patients with other diseases. What requires certain preparation that can't be done if you are swarmed with new cases.


Plus you wouldn't be nearly so much against the lockdown in the case that Washington did it's job. When you start a lockdown you need to give people the money to live through it. Not doing that is pure insanity however you turn it. Especially since by not giving people money you make sure that people wonder around and by doing that you make sure that they get the virus. Which will through those people survive lockdown and start to spread again during or after lockdown. What basically means that all money and effort that goes into lockdown will be wasted. Therefore if you don't give people the money it can indeed be better that you don't do the lockdown since you will turn people against yourself. What is probably the last thing you want to do in this situation.

There are at least 2 explanations for this.
1) Croatia didn't get many infected visitors from other nations like the USA and Sweden.
2) Nations, like New Zealand that completely quarantined foreign travel did great. I don't know if Croatia did the same.
3) Nations with younger populations will naturally do better. (I didn't look up the demographics of Sweden or Croatia, but this would explain some of the differences between nations.)

The 2nd strategy is not an option for a nation like the USA, so we have to look for other successful strategies.

Average age in Croatia is higher than Sweden and US as far as I know. Not by much but it is a little bit higher. Plus through the summer we ran more tourists through the county than there are locals. While many were from countries that were more infected than us. However we manged to pulls all of this because we were legally and mentally prepared. Since this country in it's current form is made under much darker circumstances than this pandemic. So we had plenty of good laws and even experiences that just had to be deployed. If it makes you proud our right was in charge of what can be defined as a success thus far.

I'm not aware that Sweden's changed policies. Are you sure about this? I haven't heard of Sweden locking down schools or businesses during the summer.

I said by the book and that means being rational about it, it can mean lockdown if things get bad but by book I primary mean doing what you can that there is no need for lockdown in the first place. What means giving up on heard immunity as main strategy since in order to achieve that you need to infect most the people (and fairly quickly). What simply isn't smart thing to do with the virus that is this dangerous. So instead you just push mass mask usage, ban mass gatherings, educated people that they keep the distance if possible ... etc. I am EU citizen and for me Sweden is basically just another "federal state", so I remember the outrage from everybody over what they were doing in Sweden. What in combination with their numbers made them to rethink the strategy and do something that is closer to what the rest of the continent was doing (what I call "the book"). Since in general EU member states didn't need second lockdown, although with current trends some parts of some member states will probably need another one. (since too many people got too comfortable).

Right now, Sweden's doing better than the USA and California. California's been on lockdown very early on and our Daily Deaths graph, while on the decline is still around 60 deaths/day. The worst part is, this thing could go on for another 5 months, even with the lockdown. Anyway, thanks for the discussion. Congrats to Croatia; you guys did great.

True, but the point was why insisting on the country that mess up itself ? Why not go after experiences from even more successful countries? You don't have to take mine, there is plenty of better ones than Sweden on the map. I mean in the end this whole pandemic question in the end is coming to the issues of order. If you will create genuine order you will have almost normal life even with this pandemic in the mix. Because masks, distance and a few stimulus measures will keep the system rolling if you do it right.


Just saying.

 

[Lexicon]

Updated Isolation Guidance Does Not Imply Immunity to COVID-19 | CDC

 

[Tellenbach]

Why not go after experiences from even more successful countries?

Because some successful countries completely shut their borders like New Zealand. We can't do that because we have porous borders and no one wants to shut down international travel. New Zealand's policy worked great, but they're going to take a huge economic hit. It's the balance that I'm concerned with. We know that suicides and drug abuse increase in hard economic times. I've seen estimates that the deaths due to the lockdown in the USA will surpass the deaths from Covid-19. That's a problem.

I'm not sure why countries like Taiwan are so much more successful; We should definitely study how they avoided the damage. It's pretty clear that population density plays a huge factor, but then nations like Japan are doing much better than we are. I'm singling out Sweden because they showed that not locking down can work. Sweden is in the middle of the pack, in terms of success. In Sweden, the vast majority of deaths are in nursing homes. That's the biggest lesson to learn from every nation. You've got to protect the vulnerable and if you are able to do that, you don't have to lock-down.

My problem with the lock-down strategy is that it restricts the freedom of people (under 55 with no underlying conditions) who are never going to die from the infection. The schools should never have shut down. The biggest focus should've been to protect the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Instead, here in the USA, we had governors like Cuomo and Whitmer forcing nursing homes to take in Covid-19 patients.

Because masks, distance and a few stimulus measures will keep the system rolling if you do it right.

People aren't allowed to dine in restaurants. It's estimated that 66% of New York's restaurants will close permanently. That's not acceptable.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I refuse to take a vaccine derived from shark parts

 

[Jaguar]

This is dangerous:

Did it ever occur to anyone this lunatic's goal is to actually get large numbers of people infected? (The herd immunity fantasy.)

 

[Jaguar]

Griftermania:

Eric Trump falsely calls president's coronavirus treatment a vaccine | TheHill

President Trump’s son Eric on Sunday called his father’s treatment for COVID-19 a vaccine that he further claimed the president helped create from “day one.”

“My father literally started day one creating this vaccine. He worked to push this vaccine and now my father just took it and you see how well he got over it,” Eric Trump told ABC “This Week’s” Jon Karl.

 

[Vendrah]

That's not the reason for the lockdown in the USA. The reasons given were the initial models (faulty estimates) of 2 to 3 million dead in the USA and the lack of ventilators in hospitals. Basically, the leaders were scared by our public health officials.



There are at least 2 explanations for this.
1) Croatia didn't get many infected visitors from other nations like the USA and Sweden.
2) Nations, like New Zealand that completely quarantined foreign travel did great. I don't know if Croatia did the same.
3) Nations with younger populations will naturally do better. (I didn't look up the demographics of Sweden or Croatia, but this would explain some of the differences between nations.)

The 2nd strategy is not an option for a nation like the USA, so we have to look for other successful strategies.



I'm not aware that Sweden's changed policies. Are you sure about this? I haven't heard of Sweden locking down schools or businesses during the summer.



Right now, Sweden's doing better than the USA and California. California's been on lockdown very early on and our Daily Deaths graph, while on the decline is still around 60 deaths/day. The worst part is, this thing could go on for another 5 months, even with the lockdown. Anyway, thanks for the discussion. Congrats to Croatia; you guys did great.

If you go to:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 37,705,118 Cases and 1,080,602 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Press the arrows inside the Tot. Cases/Million box.
You will see that US and Brazil are at 10 and 11 on the rank, while Sweden at 47.

Total cases/Million is the right number to serve the "herd immunity" measure purpose in terms of data, even though underdeveloped countries such as Brazil are masking numbers - even though Trump administration might be hiding data as well.
If the herd immunity really worked out for everybody as you claim, then the number of people dying today on both US and Brazil would be near zero, but that is not happening.
So, the statement "herd immunity is going to make the number of deaths low after some time" is logically false.

 

[Tellenbach]

Total cases/Million is the right number to serve the "herd immunity" measure purpose in terms of data, even though underdeveloped countries such as Brazil are masking numbers - even though Trump administration might be hiding data as well.

The total cases/million doesn't represent the true number though. No one knows the true number of people who got the virus and weren't tested or were asymptomatic. I'm guessing that Sweden's true infection rate is much higher than its neighbors who did lock down. Look at the daily new cases in Iceland and Denmark compared to Sweden. Sweden's daily new cases for the past month is a smaller bump compared to those nations; that could be interpreted as greater immunity in the Swedish population.

 

[JAVO]

"He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved."

Coronavirus: WHO joins the Great Barrington Declaration by condemning lockdowns

 

[Red Memories]

Covid is technically a kind of cold.

which absolutely means you can catch it again. I speak from experience as someone who gets colds a lot... in the same year... x.x

 

[Vendrah]

The total cases/million doesn't represent the true number though. No one knows the true number of people who got the virus and weren't tested or were asymptomatic. I'm guessing that Sweden's true infection rate is much higher than its neighbors who did lock down. Look at the daily new cases in Iceland and Denmark compared to Sweden. Sweden's daily new cases for the past month is a smaller bump compared to those nations; that could be interpreted as greater immunity in the Swedish population.

Well, if you like to ignore data like this don't expect to be recognized as right... though if you ignore data it means that you should ignore your own last phrase as well.

There is not much reason to think that Sweden had tested less people than its neighbours.

 

[anticlimatic]

"He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved."

Coronavirus: WHO joins the Great Barrington Declaration by condemning lockdowns

Infuriatingly vindicating. This should have been obvious to everyone from the start.

 

[ceecee]

"He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved."

Coronavirus: WHO joins the Great Barrington Declaration by condemning lockdowns

No one cares about the lives saved. There is no way to know the number and it certainly isn't going to matter to people who are only focused on the economy. End the lockdowns and reopen everything and assess the devastation a couple years from now when the virus naturally dies out. I mean, the chances of it returning in a decade or two is huge but eh, who cares?

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

That never happened in the US on a federal level. They ignored it until it couldn't be ignored.

 

[Red Memories]

the other day I was watching a TV show and reading live comments and someone said "why couldn't they just put masks on the two people and let them hug and all of that?"

I wanted to scream MASKS DO NOT ALLEVIATE YOUR ACTUAL SOCIAL DISTANCING REQUIREMENTS AND THIS IS WHY NOTHING WORKS IN AMERICA.

 

[anticlimatic]

"The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it."

That never happened in the US on a federal level. They ignored it until it couldn't be ignored.

Actually, if you can remember all the way back to March of this year that was exactly what the White House did:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf?

Seriously- enough. Progressive governers in this country have done enough damage already with their anti-reason, anti-science, pro-lockdown pro-fear mongering "vote for me" shennanigans. Let it go.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

"He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved."

Coronavirus: WHO joins the Great Barrington Declaration by condemning lockdowns

I wish in that article, instead of just addressing economic impact, they'd mentioned if it was actually effective or not in slowing the spread of the virus. That's an important point that's being left out. I'd very much like to know the answer to that. If lockdowns save a lot of lives, I would consider the economic slowdown justified. I find it troubling that they don't mention that; it's as though they consider the lives not as important as the amount of money lost. The worst part is that a lot of them appear to be doctors.

 

[Red Memories]

Actually, if you can remember all the way back to March of this year that was exactly what the White House did:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf?

Seriously- enough. Progressive governers in this country have done enough damage already with their anti-reason, anti-science, pro-lockdown pro-fear mongering "vote for me" shennanigans. Let it go.

I mean fairly, when China stopped travel to China over it Pelosi called it racist and did a video in little chinatown asking people to keep going out................

Pelosi is a moron left or right though lol. I'm just saying, they did partly ignore it, but not just Trump...everyone kinda did.

America dropped the ball on that one.

 

[ceecee]

I mean fairly, when China stopped travel to China over it Pelosi called it racist and did a video in little chinatown asking people to keep going out................

Pelosi is a moron left or right though lol. I'm just saying, they did partly ignore it, but not just Trump...everyone kinda did.

America dropped the ball on that one.

I had no idea Nancy Pelosi had any control over the WH Corona virus "guidelines". The anti-science quip is pure psychological projection. I always assumed the right wingers would claim they suddenly believe in science after decades of railing against it but their truth always functions within a framework of self-obsession and paranoia. COVID gives them a perfect opportunity to attempt this bullshit once again. Makes their hypocrisy all the more evident.

 

[Red Memories]

I had no idea Nancy Pelosi had any control over the WH Corona virus "guidelines". The anti-science quip is pure psychological projection. I always assumed the right wingers would claim they suddenly believe in science after decades of railing against it but their truth always functions within a framework of self-obsession and paranoia. COVID gives them a perfect opportunity to attempt this bullshit once again. Makes their hypocrisy all the more evident.

I was just making a point that I don't think who dropped the ball is a left or right issue frankly, because everyone sat like lame ducks arguing until it hit a head. and now they're doing the same shit with the second relief package that so many people need and I'm fucking sick of them using coronavirus for petty reasoning shit. Right included.

sit down and get this shit handled and worked out. People are psychologically distressed, done, people are struggling to regroup, and if you tell them one they don't do the other and act like righteous assholes about it anyway and I'm beyond tired of the bullshit.

Some people want something fucking consistent already. My anxiety hit a point of "fuck it you shitholes change your damn story EVERY FUCKING DAY." The overexposure, the overbearing nature of who is right and who is wrong. Some of us are just trying to protect their families and survive while both of these fucking parties play games with my safety and stability so FUCK them. That's how I feel about it. We're just being used as pawns to fucking agendas.

It is obvious from the get go neither one actually gave a rats ass about the American people through this and they still aren't. Even with Trump wanting to hold aide hostage till after the election. A fucking agenda game. I'm sick of the game. I'm sick of playing who is right or wrong with covid.

THEY ALL SUCKED. WE ARE HERE BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY NO ONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET THIS TO THE PROPER POINT. People put on masks and think it protects them directly, that as long as they wear a mask they can hug and shit wherever they go and perform their usual shit as normal. They fought the original protocols and fight this too when I mean, I think if they were really be followed as directed it wouldn't be so bad.

STAY HOME IF YOU HAVE A SYMPTOM OF SOME KIND
STAY 6 FEET AWAY FROM PEOPLE PERIOD
IF YOU ARE ABLE TO, PUT ON A FACE COVERING.
WASH YOUR HANDS.

I've done this. I've caught a couple things, neither one ended up being covid. Honestly, the person who brings it home is grandpa usually, because he'll go walking somewhere and not social distance. I speak from being tested twice because precautionary, I have had plenty of flu swabs and I am not weirded out by swabs being stuck up my nose. fuck, I got an antibody test when they first came around here to see if anything was up and I am frankly terrified of needles and it was hell but hey if my blood said something about immunity why not. Some of us have been trying and are sick of watching all these fucking self-righteous games occur with excessive drama and holier than thou attitudes and a sheer lack of care for anyone's reasonable struggles. I don't mean people breaking into shit either. I mean Idaho reopened way too fucking early. I mean the level of shit Cuomo had to make a policy forcing senior homes to take those sick patients back. etc.

So many people died because everyone fucked up. EVERYONE. We had science, data, examples from other countries later even what helps and what may not, and instead we all chose to act like a bunch of damn children and fight everything. Now I don't think we have a choice besides accepting herd immunity and what it is worth because it is not magically going to get under control. Frankly considering it is airborne and people don't care in so many ways I don't think we stood a chance of truly eliminating it anyway. The mask mandates in Idaho didn't really slow our numbers. Once the cat is out of the bag, its out of the bag. The time to act was when the cases were small and limited. It is a little late to react now. Anything done now needs to be damage control.