Coronavirus

[anticlimatic]

Exactly, what are you waiting for ?


However you can't really fix any of this before you fix the pandemic. Because as long as there is the pandemic the people just wouldn't spend the money even if they have it, while most will try to save every cent they have. What means that risky but none essential places are out of the picture. Restaurants, bars, movies, airlines, various entertainment parks and stores, theaters, car stores etc. While others will probably have visible loses. Therefore there is a great depression in the mix regardless of opening and closing the economy. What I tried to explain to Justin before he got himself banned. The point of a lock down is that people will get infected and that will crash the economy anyway, therefore with the lockdown economy will suffer but at least people will be safe and you will not have to pay their treatment (plus with right moves you can ease this suffering of economy greatly). While most that got infected will get cured in isolation since the disease isn't fundamentally fatal even if it is nasty. Plus they wouldn't spread it much if they all stay home. Therefore in the end basically everyone will be back to work after 2 months once the problem is phased out. Do you honesty think that Trump or Wall Street would both agree to the lockdown in the case there was any reasonable alternative ? (in election year) However your lockdown has failed in it's main task due to whole number of reasons regarding the government, media and the culture. Therefore this is basically finished story at this point and there will not be a new lockdown. Therefore at this point your only hope for the near future comes down to personal responsibility of masks, gloves and protecting each other. What returns us to the "What are you waiting for ?".

The point of the lock down was to flatten the curve, and also in my opinion to take control of the economic nose dive that would have happened regardless. One of the positive elements of the current economic downtown is how much it's perceived to be a deliberate effort by the government, which has caused less panic in investors and kept them with the hopeful notion that a government directed rebound would follow. Flattening the curve was accomplished in a couple months, and our economy has been reopened with the personal responsibility protocols in place- aside from a few left wing governors who decided to keep their lockdowns going for purely political reasons (after evidence came in that they only caused unnecessary economic/psychological hardship with little to no public health benefit)- since left wing people are disproportionately affected by the virus and disproportionately want lockdowns imposed on them, and also because american authoritarians are almost universally on the left these days and it is very hard for them to give up power once acquired. It's definitely not open all the way. The fact that restaurants and other venues can only fill their establishments at 1/3 capacity (estimating based on the six-foot rule, when 2 feet of space seemed to be standard prior) mean that within themselves they are operating at a small percent of their potential. But like a plane that has been nose diving with the engines cut, starting them again at 30% power can at least slow the descent and help to keep the plane in the air for the time being. Which remedies the biggest fear I had back in March- that a majority of businesses would collapse under too-long of a lockdown. What you are going to see soon are the rebounded numbers that reflect the reopening, which combined with a more positive national outlook (on the virus and economy at least) will begin to snowball upward. We are in a mostly good position right now, and I think you will see that begin to increase, despite the media's desires. One thing I also don't think you realize is that until the pandemic is over on a global level, not just a national level, you will not see the economic potential restored to any particular nation- including yours. Croatia might have avoided getting its people sick so far, but you are about to have other problems. You have about the same level of debt as the US (comparing percent of GDP), and your summer tourism season is vital to your economy, but nobody is going to want to travel abroad simply for recreation while the virus is still living in airports. At least the US has a lot of other ways to generate "in house" revenue to keep us going (tourism is 2 percent of the US GDP, and 20 percent of Croatia's GDP).

 

[Virtual ghost]

The point of the lock down was to flatten the curve, and also in my opinion to take control of the economic nose dive that would have happened regardless. One of the positive elements of the current economic downtown is how much it's perceived to be a deliberate effort by the government, which has caused less panic in investors and kept them with the hopeful notion that a government directed rebound would follow. Flattening the curve was accomplished in a couple months, and our economy has been reopened with the personal responsibility protocols in place- aside from a few left wing governors who decided to keep their lockdowns going for purely political reasons (after evidence came in that they only caused unnecessary economic/psychological hardship with little to no public health benefit)- since left wing people are disproportionately affected by the virus and disproportionately want lockdowns imposed on them, and also because american authoritarians are almost universally on the left these days and it is very hard for them to give up power once acquired. It's definitely not open all the way. The fact that restaurants and other venues can only fill their establishments at 1/3 capacity (estimating based on the six-foot rule, when 2 feet of space seemed to be standard prior) mean that within themselves they are operating at a small percent of their potential. But like a plane that has been nose diving with the engines cut, starting them again at 30% power can at least slow the descent and help to keep the plane in the air for the time being. Which remedies the biggest fear I had back in March- that a majority of businesses would collapse under too-long of a lockdown. What you are going to see soon are the rebounded numbers that reflect the reopening, which combined with a more positive national outlook (on the virus and economy at least) will begin to snowball upward. We are in a mostly good position right now, and I think you will see that begin to increase, despite the media's desires. One thing I also don't think you realize is that until the pandemic is over on a global level, not just a national level, you will not see the economic potential restored to any particular nation- including yours. Croatia might have avoided getting its people sick so far, but you are about to have other problems. You have about the same level of debt as the US (comparing percent of GDP), and your summer tourism season is vital to your economy, but nobody is going to want to travel abroad simply for recreation while the virus is still living in airports. At least the US has a lot of other ways to generate "in house" revenue to keep us going (tourism is 2 percent of the US GDP, and 20 percent of Croatia's GDP).

Stop being so defensive, this isn't a personal attack.


But that isn't the topic the topic is the part of your people that are against masks, gloves, keeping distance and everything related. From the start I am saying that you simply can't have a real rebound in economy if people wouldn't spend the money, and they will not spend "properly" as long as the virus is around. Therefore everyone that is against protecting others around them is part of the problem and only makes sure this lasts longer and is more painful. Especially in the case that your original post is correct and no real vaccine is ever found. Since that means that the masks, gloves and the rest of the company is really the only thing you have left. I said I understand that people need to work or shop but everyone has to use protection as much as possible and avoid any gatherings (protests included). I am saying this exactly because the lockdown ship has sailed.



Also just for the record: the point of a lockdown isn't just to flatten the curve. That is only the first goal that prevents out of control pandemic. While the other and perhaps more important one is that on the medium run most people can heal at home if they are not too sick or too old. Plus since they are at home they can't spread it too much or reinfect each other. What in the end if done well will cause massive drops in active cases. Some places are over 90% down in active cases due to this and that means that economic recovery should be much easier to achieve.


Plus our public debts aren't even close as far as I know. Ours is about 80% since before pandemic it was 73% of GDP, while your federal is at 123% of GDP (while with local debts it should be 138%). So that is probably pointless personal attack from your side. Especially since our neighboring countries that are the most of our guests have already started to arrive, because they also have good numbers since they did this right (one is even corona free formally - everyone is cured, no known cases left). Therefore it wouldn't be a complete loss in this summer. Especially since virus free environment means possible gains in other local industries because big international business is disrupted. This is exactly why we were in the hurry to get out of this, since that creates much better starting positions in the post corona world. There will be local problems but probably much milder than the most of the world. Plus I post global picture daily exactly since I understand the implications if the whole third world gets infected.

 

[anticlimatic]

Stop being so defensive, this isn't a personal attack.


But that isn't the topic the topic is the part of your people that are against masks, gloves, keeping distance and everything related. From the start I am saying that you simply can't have a real rebound in economy if people wouldn't spend the money, and they will not spend "properly" as long as the virus is around. Therefore everyone that is against protecting others around them is part of the problem and only makes sure this lasts longer and is more painful. Especially in the case that your original post is correct and no real vaccine is ever found. Since that means that the masks, gloves and the rest of the company is really the only thing you have left. I said I understand that people need to work or shop but everyone has to use protection as much as possible and avoid any gatherings (protests included). I am saying this exactly because the lockdown ship has sailed.



Also just for the record: the point of a lockdown isn't just to flatten the curve. That is only the first goal that prevents out of control pandemic. While the other and perhaps more important one is that on the medium run most people can heal at home if they are not too sick or too old. Plus since they are at home they can't spread it too much or reinfect each other. What in the end if done well will cause massive drops in active cases. Some places are over 90% down in active cases due to this and that means that economic recovery should be much easier to achieve.


Plus our public debts aren't even close as far as I know. Ours is about 80% since before pandemic it was 73% of GDP, while your federal is at 123% of GDP (while with local debts it should be 138%). So that is probably pointless personal attack from your side. Especially since our neighboring countries that are the most of our guests have already started to arrive, because they also have good numbers since they did this right (one is even corona free formally - everyone is cured, no known cases left). Therefore it wouldn't be a complete loss in this summer. Especially since virus free environment means possible gains in other local industries because big international business is disrupted. This is exactly why we were in the hurry to get out of this, since that creates much better starting positions in the post corona world. There will be local problems but probably much milder than the most of the world. Plus I post global picture daily exactly since I understand the implications if the whole third world gets infected.

I'm not being defensive, or making personal attacks. I am just examining your country with a critical lens the same way you are examining mine. I know you're not the type who can dish it but not take it, so don't take it personal. It's not meant to be. Prior to the coronavirus stimulus our debts as percents of GDP were comparable. While most americans agree that it was necessary for the government to compensate individuals and businesses after forcibly shutting them down, most of the excessive spending proponents come from our left. Debt doesn't matter to them for some reason, and they would use the coronavirus excuse to sink is into debt forever if they were allowed. The latest stimulus bill that came from the democrat run house of representatives is outrageously inflated, and fortunately will be shot down in the senate. Hopefully the Heroes Act will be redone as something far more responsible, targeting the individuals and businesses still unable to function at all under the new guidelines. In any case, it leaves your country with some comparable room to take on more debt if it needs to (hopefully it doesn't) to support the tourism sectors of your economy that are expected to take a 10% hit because of the pandemic.

Your lockdown purpose may have been different from ours, but ours has always been about flattening the curve and then reopening with as much mitigation as possible. Some of our politicians and most of our media moved the goal posts on that after flattening happened faster than anticipated, from things like "preventing a second spike" or "waiting for a vaccine," but none of that was ever actually in the plan for us. The jarring effect of the lockdown has changed most people's behavior, as I mentioned not long ago. People have adapted to effective mitigation techniques here- mask wearing, sanitizing, social distancing, etc, to unbelievably encouraging levels. I am to the point now where I trust my neighbors to be doing the right thing more often than not, though of course there are outliers being stupid, and of course those are the only people the media is ever going to show you. By my local estimation at least well over herd immunity levels of people (like 80% or so) are following the guidelines easily, willingly, and happily. The narrative that right wing people are completely against it and are all carrying guns to the capital without masks is a media lie. Most of everybody, right or left, is doing their part.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

George Floyd killing: Protests spread across the US


The avalanche has started. (what is exactly the opposite of social distancing)

The kind of precautions I've seen posted a couple times, from Standing in solidarity: How Chicagoans can support organizers on the ground in Minneapolis and Louisville.

“We are in the middle of a pandemic,” said Charlene Carruthers, founding National Director of Chicago-based Black Youth Project 100 (BYP 100), a youth organization focused on police accountability. She spoke with activists in Minnesota, who told her to encourage people not to travel to the state unless they’re offering a specific skill.

“Large groups of people not only put individuals in the situation at risk, it places our loved ones at risk when we go back home,” she said. “In Minneapolis, just as it is in Chicago, Black communities are being hit pretty hard by COVID-19.”

[...]

Trina Trill, 27, is a Chicago resident and squad member with BYP 100. Although time has passed since COVID-19 cases first ramped up across the U.S. in March, she said, Black folks still need to remember the dangers of COVID-19 while protesting in various movements for Black lives.

“If you’re going out tomorrow, make sure you’re wearing a mask at all times,” said Trill, who doesn’t use her real name out of concern for her safety. “Don’t take off your masks to speak into a megaphone or yell. If you can, wear some glasses, too, so that you won’t be tempted to touch your eyes. Make sure you’re social distancing as much as possible.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), coronavirus is airborne and spreads from person to person when respiratory droplets make close contact from sneezing or coughing. Trill believes that protests are necessary now because in her line of work, she’s witnessed injustice of Black people by the hands of white police officers.
​

 

[Z Buck McFate]

It's kind of odd how different locations are treating the current situation so differently. I drove an hour away yesterday to grocery shop (because I wanted to go to a Trader Joe's) and masks were mandatory/non-negotiable at both stores I went to. And in both places 6 ft. distance was consistently enforced - even at the register, I was asked to stepback to a marked spot on the floor (6 ft. from cashier) until I needed to use the credit card thing. This was 1 hour southwest of Chicago. Yet 1 hour east of Chicago, in Northwest Indiana, hardly anyone is even wearing a mask.

It's just kind of surreal for two different "norms" to have been established so solidly for two locations that aren't even really that far apart.

eta: I'll probably start making the extra drive for groceries, because I feel a lot better shopping at places that are putting more effort into protecting their employees. I've seen it mentioned in a couple places now - an NPR article and NYT - that amount of exposure matters. The more exposure a person has to the coronavirus - and I assume, also, the more exposure to the different strains - effects how sick they will get if they have a serious reaction to it.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Does anyone have good data on covid19 test accuracy? Because the media seems to be treating all tests the same but it seems to me like depending on the tests you could test positive from having had a cold in the past few weeks. Now of course depending on the technic used accuracy can be very high but I’m a bit puzzled by the binary over simplification. Virus rna concentration matters, accuracy of the tests matter etc.

It is surprising that more emphasis isn't put on this and the need for it to be a priority. I don't see how we can possibly come up with satisfying answers about how necessary lockdown and distancing is until this has been made more of a priority.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Your lockdown purpose may have been different from ours, but ours has always been about flattening the curve and then reopening with as much mitigation as possible. Some of our politicians and most of our media moved the goal posts on that after flattening happened faster than anticipated, from things like "preventing a second spike" or "waiting for a vaccine," but none of that was ever actually in the plan for us. The jarring effect of the lockdown has changed most people's behavior, as I mentioned not long ago. People have adapted to effective mitigation techniques here- mask wearing, sanitizing, social distancing, etc, to unbelievably encouraging levels. I am to the point now where I trust my neighbors to be doing the right thing more often than not, though of course there are outliers being stupid, and of course those are the only people the media is ever going to show you. By my local estimation at least well over herd immunity levels of people (like 80% or so) are following the guidelines easily, willingly, and happily. The narrative that right wing people are completely against it and are all carrying guns to the capital without masks is a media lie. Most of everybody, right or left, is doing their part.

As I said I am retreating for real but I will add one more comment.



Well, that "most" IS the problem. How much is the most ? 85% ? Even in that rate that still leaves about 50 million Americans out of the picture, most of which are still coming home to someone and they surely buy food. If one guy wears the glows and the other does not the first still has decent chances to pass the virus he maybe has on his gloves. To America 85% may look big but that still isn't enough. The protection simply has to be pushed on people without exceptions, although that will surely cause resistance (especially if not explained well to the people). This is why your lockdown didn't really work, since fair chunk of the population was left unchecked for whatever the reason. However they were left vulnerable and hosted the virus through the lockdown that should have purged most of it through the 2 months. But instead you got what even isn't equalization of new cases and cured people but just strong slowing of growth in active cases. I say that the lockdown failed because it was quite costly but it didn't even stopped the gains fully (and it should have turned the tables into more cured than infected). The key to victory is to prevent paths and gains to the virus and that has to include everybody. While dropping in active cases is the only thing that can really quiet down the hysteria (which is fundamentally deadly, perhaps even more than the virus).



I really wouldn't say any of this in the case I don't see pictures of public gatherings, debates on opening churches, mass protests, in the other thread there is the talk about "uncle's party" ... etc. That is why I went after "What are we waiting for". Everyone has to talk as many people into personal responsibility or help people get what is needed since there is no back up. This simply has to hold.

 

[Red Herring]

The latest research points to SARS-CoV-2 having a very low dispersion factor. Apparently about 10% of infected people are responsible for 80% of new infections. The R factor of 3 is an average but while many will infect noone or only one or two people others will infect dozends if people. The problem is it's hard to tell who the superspreaders are until it's too late. It can be someone young and healthy-looking.

Indoor infections are 19 times more likely than outdoor infections and places where people breathe heavily like gyms, choirs, etc are especially high risk.

Add to that the insight that aerosols are an important factor while surface infection is very rare and we have a lot of useful knowledge at hand in case a second wave makes another lockdown necessary.

Also, the time window for infectiousness seems to be rather short. Looks like next time around here in Germany quarantine will be reduced to one week but all contacts will be quarantined immediately rather than tested first (at least that's the recommendation of our corona tsar). We also know more about risk factors.

The first time around most countries used a blunt instrument to fight the pandemic. Rightfully so, I think. Should there be a second wave we can use the newly gained knowledge for a more surgical approach.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

T


The first time around most countries used a blunt instrument to fight the pandemic. Rightfully so, I think. Should there be a second wave we can use the newly gained knowledge for a more surgical approach.

U.S. won't though, as part of making everything great. Individual states might.

 

[Vendrah]

Plus our public debts aren't even close as far as I know. Ours is about 80% since before pandemic it was 73% of GDP, while your federal is at 123% of GDP (while with local debts it should be 138%). So that is probably pointless personal attack from your side. Especially since our neighboring countries that are the most of our guests have already started to arrive, because they also have good numbers since they did this right (one is even corona free formally - everyone is cured, no known cases left). Therefore it wouldn't be a complete loss in this summer. Especially since virus free environment means possible gains in other local industries because big international business is disrupted. This is exactly why we were in the hurry to get out of this, since that creates much better starting positions in the post corona world. There will be local problems but probably much milder than the most of the world. Plus I post global picture daily exactly since I understand the implications if the whole third world gets infected.

You are not your country, you are not Croatia and [MENTION=20035]anticlimatic[/MENTION] isnt the US either.
We dont really pick up where are we going to born, I think. I could even argue that using MBTI types population distribution.

 

[ceecee]

It's kind of odd how different locations are treating the current situation so differently. I drove an hour away yesterday to grocery shop (because I wanted to go to a Trader Joe's) and masks were mandatory/non-negotiable at both stores I went to. And in both places 6 ft. distance was consistently enforced - even at the register, I was asked to stepback to a marked spot on the floor (6 ft. from cashier) until I needed to use the credit card thing. This was 1 hour southwest of Chicago. Yet 1 hour east of Chicago, in Northwest Indiana, hardly anyone is even wearing a mask.

It's just kind of surreal for two different "norms" to have been established so solidly for two locations that aren't even really that far apart.

eta: I'll probably start making the extra drive for groceries, because I feel a lot better shopping at places that are putting more effort into protecting their employees. I've seen it mentioned in a couple places now - an NPR article and NYT - that amount of exposure matters. The more exposure a person has to the coronavirus - and I assume, also, the more exposure to the different strains - effects how sick they will get if they have a serious reaction to it.

Same. I've been shopping at TJ's, Aldi, Costco and the local food co-op. I haven't bought meat other than a butcher for a long time but there is even more reason for people to not buy meat from big box stores, if possible. We had to get drywall and wood at Menards last week and they had a mask or GTFO policy in force, at least in that store and it was busy.

 

[anticlimatic]

As I said I am retreating for real but I will add one more comment.



Well, that "most" IS the problem. How much is the most ? 85% ? Even in that rate that still leaves about 50 million Americans out of the picture, most of which are still coming home to someone and they surely buy food. If one guy wears the glows and the other does not the first still has decent chances to pass the virus he maybe has on his gloves. To America 85% may look big but that still isn't enough. The protection simply has to be pushed on people without exceptions, although that will surely cause resistance (especially if not explained well to the people). This is why your lockdown didn't really work, since fair chunk of the population was left unchecked for whatever the reason. However they were left vulnerable and hosted the virus through the lockdown that should have purged most of it through the 2 months. But instead you got what even isn't equalization of new cases and cured people but just strong slowing of growth in active cases. I say that the lockdown failed because it was quite costly but it didn't even stopped the gains fully (and it should have turned the tables into more cured than infected). The key to victory is to prevent paths and gains to the virus and that has to include everybody. While dropping in active cases is the only thing that can really quiet down the hysteria (which is fundamentally deadly, perhaps even more than the virus).



I really wouldn't say any of this in the case I don't see pictures of public gatherings, debates on opening churches, mass protests, in the other thread there is the talk about "uncle's party" ... etc. That is why I went after "What are we waiting for". Everyone has to talk as many people into personal responsibility or help people get what is needed since there is no back up. This simply has to hold.

I don't really see viruses as the same zero-sum winner-take-all type of conflict as you do. I think 80% of our people taking precautions should have an approximate 80% impact on the spread of the virus. It only takes 60% of the people having antibodies to create herd immunity, so 80% of people not passing on the disease to others through physical instead of microbial means should have a similar effect. The public gathering photos and big to-do's about churches opening up (which use similar if not more strict guidelines than businesses) that you see you are only seeing to push a media narriative and do not actually reflect the reality on the ground. I don't know if you noticed, or if I mentioned before, but our media outlets are incredibly untrustworthy, and woefully insufficient in providing actual insights into the state of the US nation.

 

[FemMecha]

Are these numbers accurate?

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020 | Flourish

 

[ceecee]

Are these numbers accurate?

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020 | Flourish

That's as of May 24. The Worldometer for today May 31 is 372,433 so yes pretty close. That it's higher than malnutrition worldwide is really crazy.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 6,223,867 Cases and 372,473 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Pandemic’s overall death toll in U.S. likely surpassed 100,000 weeks ago

Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year, according to an analysis conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health. That figure reflects about 26,000 more fatalities than were attributed to covid-19 on death certificates during that period, according to federal data.

Those 26,000 fatalities were not necessarily caused directly by the virus. They could also include people who died as a result of the epidemic but not from the disease itself, such as those who were afraid to seek medical help for unrelated illnesses. Increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as motor vehicle accidents, also affect the count.

Such “excess death” analyses are a standard tool used by epidemiologists to gauge the true toll of infectious-disease outbreaks and other widespread disasters.
​

 

[JAVO]

What if the virus has been circulating for months or even years before the Wuhan outbreak?

https://coronavirus.medium.com/why-france-is-on-a-mission-to-find-patient-zero-282158b50bc0

 

[Red Herring]

What if the virus has been circulating for months or even years before the Wuhan outbreak?

https://coronavirus.medium.com/why-france-is-on-a-mission-to-find-patient-zero-282158b50bc0

There are signs that the first cases in Europe happened in November or December, that's a long shot from "circulating for months or even years" though. The low dispersion rate would explain why there could be a few patients in Europe already without the spread really taking off....until it hits the first superspreader.

 

[JAVO]

There are signs that the first cases in Europe happened in November or December, that's a long shot from "circulating for months or even years" though. The low dispersion rate would explain why there could be a few patients in Europe already without the spread really taking off....until it hits the first superspreader.

I was speculating based on the continued discovery of new evidence, which is really in its infancy. Speculation, yes. Long shot, I don't think so.

For example, I don't know that it has been sufficiently established that infection in humans is new. I haven't read much about that aspect though, so I may have missed important findings. Maybe we're just now paying attention to it because of a spike in its virulence?

 

[FemMecha]

What if the virus has been circulating for months or even years before the Wuhan outbreak?

https://coronavirus.medium.com/why-france-is-on-a-mission-to-find-patient-zero-282158b50bc0

There are signs that the first cases in Europe happened in November or December, that's a long shot from "circulating for months or even years" though. The low dispersion rate would explain why there could be a few patients in Europe already without the spread really taking off....until it hits the first superspreader.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that have been present in humans and animals for many years, and this specific new COVID-19 has at least 14 mutations. Is there an issue with determining the relationship between these prior viruses and this specific novel coronavirus? Also, what is the information about the lab in Wuhan that was specifically doing research on coronaviruses? I don't necessarily believe the conspiracy that it was deliberately created there, but is there a connection with that lab for an accidental release of the virus?

 

[FemMecha]

^My question an a non-virologist is 'when does this novel COVID-19 coronavirus end and the other coronaviruses begin?' when observing how it came into being and its current mutations. How similar/different does it need to be genetically to be classified specifically with COVID-19? I can continue to try to look for some articles, but also curious if other people have info already.

Even Feline Infectious Peritonitis is a coronavirus identified in 1985. I had a cat die from it about a decade ago and my elderly cat survived it without symptoms. Those symptoms are quite similar to the current COVID-19 symptoms interestingly enough, but it isn't transmittable to humans.