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Coronavirus

Red Memories

Haunted Echoes
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I am gonna be as real as day.

The studies came from Chinese people, who had already told lies about the situation. You think I'm gonna trust their scientific studies when they killed doctors exposing the illness? I'm gonna say no. Also you're acting like a troll and being inconsiderate of the reality that is all these types of illnesses spread in some way, otherwise all these people would not have it. If you feel this strongly in your ignorance, leave the conversation. You're not changing anyone's minds, you're just making yourself look like a dick. Especially insulting the body type of people with it, when there have been extremely healthy people coming out and disclosing their false sense of safety over it. Your claims are all false and misguided.
 
Joined
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Characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and
death in the first 9,519 cases with a positive RT-PCR
test for SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark (CHYNA):


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.20111823v1.full.pdf

Results

We identified 9,519 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive cases of whom 78% were community-managed, 22%
were hospitalized (3.2% at an intensive care unit) and 5.5% had died within 30 days. Median age varied
from 45 years (interquartile range (IQR) 31-57) among community-managed cases to 82 years (IQR 75-
89) among those who died. Age was a strong predictor of fatal disease (odds ratio (OR) 14 for 70-79-
year old, OR 26 for 80-89-year old, and OR 82 for cases older than 90 years, when compared to 50-59-
year old and adjusted for sex and number of comorbidities). Similarly, the number of comorbidities was
strongly associated with fatal disease (OR 5.2, for cases with ≥4 comorbidities versus no
comorbidities), and 82% of fatal cases had at least 2 comorbidities. A wide range of major chronic
diseases were associated with hospitalization with ORs ranging from 1.3-1.4 (e.g. stroke, ischemic heart
disease) to 2.2-2.7 (e.g. heart failure, hospital-diagnosed kidney disease, chronic liver disease). Similarly,
chronic diseases were associated with mortality with ORs ranging from 1.2-1.3 (e.g. ischemic heart
disease, hypertension) to 2.4-2.7 (e.g. major psychiatric disorder, organ transplantation). In the absence
of comorbidities, mortality was relatively low (5% or less) in persons aged up to 80 years.
 

Vendrah

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Characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and
death in the first 9,519 cases with a positive RT-PCR
test for SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark (CHYNA):

Results

We identified 9,519 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive cases of whom 78% were community-managed, 22%
were hospitalized (3.2% at an intensive care unit) and 5.5% had died within 30 days. Median age varied
from 45 years (interquartile range (IQR) 31-57) among community-managed cases to 82 years (IQR 75-
89) among those who died. Age was a strong predictor of fatal disease (odds ratio (OR) 14 for 70-79-
year old, OR 26 for 80-89-year old, and OR 82 for cases older than 90 years, when compared to 50-59-
year old and adjusted for sex and number of comorbidities). Similarly, the number of comorbidities was
strongly associated with fatal disease (OR 5.2, for cases with ≥4 comorbidities versus no
comorbidities), and 82% of fatal cases had at least 2 comorbidities. A wide range of major chronic
diseases were associated with hospitalization with ORs ranging from 1.3-1.4 (e.g. stroke, ischemic heart
disease) to 2.2-2.7 (e.g. heart failure, hospital-diagnosed kidney disease, chronic liver disease). Similarly,
chronic diseases were associated with mortality with ORs ranging from 1.2-1.3 (e.g. ischemic heart
disease, hypertension) to 2.4-2.7 (e.g. major psychiatric disorder, organ transplantation). In the absence
of comorbidities, mortality was relatively low (5% or less) in persons aged up to 80 years.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.20111823v1.full.pdf

"5.5% had died within 30 days."
Wait, wasnt it 0.27% and super low rate just yesterday? :rotfl:

Also, that comic is a little bit dumb, the dinosaur could just threw him/herself on the river...
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
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"5.5% had died within 30 days."
Wait, wasnt it 0.27% and super low rate just yesterday? :rotfl:

Also, that comic is a little bit dumb, the dinosaur could just threw him/herself on the river...



Correct, the logic doesn't add up. Plus the Denmark went into a strong lockdown, if I am not mistaken it was one of the first in Europe to do so.
In other words if you completely overwhelm the healthcare system the mortality rate goes visibly above even that percentage. However if people are not careful this is exactly what you should get on the field.


While 5% of US is about 16 million people.
 
Joined
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Messages
869
Correct, the logic doesn't add up.

Because your "Logic" is weak and needs to lift more weights.

Also, when are you going to post your "I was wrong" post for anticlimatic when all of this worry is proven to be for naught? I'll put a reminder on the calendar.

The best way to do this is to set a future date (say August or September), and revisit this at that time to see whose predictive powers were stronger.
 

ceecee

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Amazing.


EY88a7dU8AIodki


Better view

COVID MAP 522B.pdf - Google Drive
 

Red Memories

Haunted Echoes
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Because your "Logic" is weak and needs to lift more weights.

Also, when are you going to post your "I was wrong" post for anticlimatic when all of this worry is proven to be for naught? I'll put a reminder on the calendar.

The best way to do this is to set a future date (say August or September), and revisit this at that time to see whose predictive powers were stronger.

Virtual doesn't need to apologize. Our deaths have exceeded most other countries because people remaining ignorant and refusing to care about someone besides themselves. I'll be here when you apologize for being a jerk to everyone in this thread lately. All you are doing is being needlessly inflammatory. a 5% death rate within 30 days really isn't something to disregard anyway. I guess it is like my grandpa said, until you see bodies lined up in the streets the common person won't care who they're killing with their lack of compassion for others.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Jun 6, 2008
Messages
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Because your "Logic" is weak and needs to lift more weights.

Also, when are you going to post your "I was wrong" post for anticlimatic when all of this worry is proven to be for naught? I'll put a reminder on the calendar.

The best way to do this is to set a future date (say August or September), and revisit this at that time to see whose predictive powers were stronger.



The fact that 100 000 Americans died kinda proves that I can't be fundamentally wrong about this. The disease is deadly and if you are ok with plenty of dead we can both be right, for US this isn't that big part of the population. Once I see clear decrease in active cases for US I will change my mind about all of this. Plus I don't think we will need to wait until September, the country is open for the most part and incubation is 5-15 days, so already in about month or so we will see where the trend is going. But ok it can be Septermber, that gives a little bit of room to see what is going on. The cure probably will not be found by then.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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Messages
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Virtual doesn't need to apologize. Our deaths have exceeded most other countries because people remaining ignorant and refusing to care about someone besides themselves. I'll be here when you apologize for being a jerk to everyone in this thread lately. All you are doing is being needlessly inflammatory. a 5% death rate within 30 days really isn't something to disregard anyway. I guess it is like my grandpa said, until you see bodies lined up in the streets the common person won't care who they're killing with their lack of compassion for others.


Towards official numbers that is not true, the US is the country with clearly THE MOST known corona deaths from the start of pandemic. The only unknown is if someone is the third world has more but no one is counting or publishing numbers.



Plus toward worldometer US death rate is 18% (so only 82% of closed known cases got cured)

US worldometer


What indicates not enough testing to find asymptomatic "sleepers", bad preparation of healthcare system and people not doing enough. However if America doesn't get serious about this what we have seen so far will probably be mild if things get completely out of control. As I said I can even understand that people need to work, but bashing masks, gloves and the rest of the story is simply counter productive. The only way is through.
 

anticlimatic

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VG is very civil and emotionally grounded in the way he presents disagreements, but I wouldn't mind an apology from rest of the less emotionally stable presenters on this forum who for whatever reason can't seem to have a conversation with someone they disagree with without blowing a gasket.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
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This is a falsifiable claim. Would you like to add this for September?


That is my claim form the start. Because you can't really fix the economy until you fix the pandemic and the more this circus goes on the mess will be greater. Especially since the public debt is already in the red. Stagnation of the virus on the long run is actually the least likely scenario. Either it will spread further or start to go into decline. However if you remove the basic counter measures like gloves and masks and tell people to "socialize" the odds are that the virus will grow in number of cases. Especially in the cultures like American one that are strong on "hands on".



You can't afford the gamble.



You just don't get why I did all of my posts ? This isn't a dick contest. Instead since this place has a number of people who live in environment where both the government and the media pretty much failed in forming coordinated response I took the liberty of being the information link between the place that has much better results and them. That wasn't planned but that is how it in the end turned out. Plus I am interested in how this is going globally. So to be blunt I really don't care about placing bets on this, but I will gladly have a chat about this in September. I like good analysis either way.

- - - Updated - - -

[video=youtube;dC_lZLzCrOI]

VG is very civil and emotionally grounded in the way he presents disagreements, but I wouldn't mind an apology from rest of the less emotionally stable presenters on this forum who for whatever reason can't seem to have a conversation with someone they disagree with without blowing a gasket.


Thank you.
 

ceecee

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The fact that 100 000 Americans died kinda proves that I can't be fundamentally wrong about this.

You're not wrong. But they don't care about 100k dead or a million dead or millions dead. They want you to arrive at the point where you also agree that it doesn't matter and that these deaths are acceptable losses.

As long as they have something to blame (China) and can go back to their comfortable world and income, none of the deaths or suffering makes any difference at all so why are you making such a huge argument about it? It's the identical argument the right makes on climate change or any other world wide crisis that they don't care about and are not about to fork over any money to improve.
 
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