Random Politics Thread

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Are The Democrats Screwed In The Senate After 2024?

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

The Senate is kinda back to 50:50 ?

 

[The Cat]

The Senate is kinda back to 50:50 ?

When has it not been?

 

[The Cat]

 

[ceecee]

So is Senator Kyrsten Sinema's switching from Democrat to Independent a way to suddenly wield a bunch of power to be a deal breaker? It would put her in a position to be offered a bunch of bribes (I mean incentives). It strikes me as a kind of dirty move in the context of the situation and not a noble reaction against the two-party system, which I don't even like myself. I'm philosophically against a two party system, but since the Republicans lost their minds, there is a need to restabilize the situation, which is why I made sure to vote and did support all the Democrats. Until the Republicans cease to be a threat to civilization itself, it is dangerous to break apart the Democratic party. This is why I think that move is personally strategic and without regard for the larger society.

The reason she switched to Independent (very few ppl are actually independent in any way politically, regardless of how intensely they argue it) is to maintain her committee assignments and continue to serve corporate interests and donors and maintain her power. There are other Independents in the Senate, who caucus with the Dems but it's not a move to another party (but it could be the start).

This only really matters to DC and federal Democrats. In AZ, they can play hardball with her and absolutely should, Ruben Gallego is a much better fit for her seat. A best case scenario is Biden offering her an ambassadorship and Gov. Hobbs appointing Gallego to her seat but I don't see that happening right now. I do see it being a possibility when she reaches the find out stage of this move. The GOP will try running Kari Lake or some other insane right winger and it's going to end up just as it has been. They win the primary and get crushed in the general. In the end, she can make way more money and have greater influence if she just becomes a lobbyist - which is why I'd float the ambassadorship.

I also think Kanye is working to lead the extremists in the U.S. - including white supremacists. The reason to rail against the Jews is the basic strategy "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". It's how he is getting in good with the white supremacists and then he is publicly seen at dinner with two of their leaders: Trump and Nick Fuentes. All his tactics fit the pattern of having that as a goal. Even his T-shirt campaign.

Everything I've heard coming from Kanye West is pure Black Hebrew propaganda and now it's getting publicity. It would probably do everyone a bit of good to get more familiar with groups like these, instead of the media being able to dictate what is a white supremacist threat and what isn't. They are all the same threat, including Republican politicians, with the same ends. To crush dissidence and keep their power. It's the reason they all sound insane to normal people - they have to have the most extreme message possible to be heard. By those that support them and those that don't.

 

[The Cat]

 

[ceecee]

I guess I don't understand all those rules. I don't understand why that would enable her to maintain committee assignments. I was understanding the focus on the importance of having a majority to pass bills, and her switch messed with that majority and would seem to put her in a position to have both sides fight over her as a supposed "Independent". It's helpful to know other aspects of it.

Even if Kanye West's anti-semitism has a foundation in "Black Hebrew" ideology, the timing does help him gain a connection with the other extremists. It just strikes me the notion that he could come out the leader of a group that has ideologies inherently against him. I don't know that he would be successful, more or less dangerous, but it strikes me as an observation that he is attempting to garner a leadership position among extremists and that is why he is sacrificing other aspects of his success and career.

You don't have to be white to uphold white supremacy. I remember Disco Biscuit arguing vehemently that the leader of the Proud Boys was a biracial, Cuban American. Therefore, the group couldn't possibly have anything whatsoever to do with white supremacy. Incidentally, there were hundreds of thousands of Jews that were in Hitler's army. Some were drafted by many enlisted. Most did not believe the laws being passed against the Jews included them. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/175123/pdf So what Kanye is doing isn't surprising and has a long history.

Just like you don't have to be a man to uphold the male patriarchy. More women gatekeep that shit more than anyone else.

 

[Virtual ghost]

As some of my posts lately suggest I am playing with maps when I can find some time. So I just want to show in this example how EASILY DeSantis could win in 2024. Especially since I am getting impression that he will push Trump out of the picture. After all the interviews, polls and everything else suggests he wants 2024 party nomination.

So here is the new map with redistricting done. So in this map he only needs truly minor gains to win the game. What makes the path very easy.

In 2020 Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin were less than a point in blue direction, while in 2022 those numbers were basically repeated. What means that this is how things are right now. However a person must recognize the fact that all of that was possible simply because there is plenty of "Never Trump" and "Never Trump again" vote around the center. Which will surely evaporate by decent margin if you remove the man out of the picture. For example none Trumpist governor in Georgia easily won in 2022 by 7 points, but almost everyone who voted for him will probably vote for DeSantis. Arizona was also very very close and I think that DeSantis is smart enough to make peace with "McCain people" which Trump openly alienated. What should be more than enough to make the state red. While in Wisconsin the senate seat just went red because the guy wasn't totally Trumpy. I mean this is it, this is all he needs to do on top of winning the standard red states. 3 states that are less than a point blue and that is it (and the guy just won Florida by 20 points ! ) .


Plus there are more problems here. He is about 35 years younger than Biden and that is huge deal when it comes to debates, change of generations and representing the average of the country. What makes matter worse for the blue side is that there is no clear replacement candidate (especially the ones that is genuinely electable). In other words there is still plenty of lean blue states DeSantis can take without too much trouble (which can replace some of the mentioned 3).


For example Nevada is moving towards red and they just got red governor. Therefore without never Trump vote this will almost surely be red state in 2024. Lockdowns hit the state fairly badly and DeSantis will probably be pretty liked there. Kinda similar is situation in New Mexico which wasn't all that blue on governor level in 2022. Pennsylvania was just a point blue in 2020 and on senate level in 2022 was just 4 point blue. Therefore with good campaigning and crash of never Trump vote this can be quite winnable state. Michigan will probably stay blue, however if new blue trifecta on the state level doesn't deliver that can quickly change. In 2022 NY was just 6 points blue on governor level and DeSantis will surely dive into Italian American vote that should be pretty numerous there. The state probably will not flip but due to it's size it will eat plenty of money needed elsewhere. Kinda similar is with New Jersey that came to the very border of flipping last year. While on the other hand Florida is basically a safe red state at this point, which DeSantis just took by 20 points. Virginia Governor is often mentioned as a VP and that potentially brings the state into play (or more money drain in order to keep it). While North Carolina votes red for years at this point and that is very unlikely to end with DeSantis. None Trumpist governor of Ohio just got reelected by safe margin, kinda the same happened in Iowa as well. Plus in New Hampshire something could happen as well, since Desantis is closer than Trump in positions to the state's popular red governor.




Therefore the map is very problematic for the democratic party if DeSantis takes the nomination. Especially since Senate map is very red friendly in 2024. While the whole world is getting more closed, nationalistic or protectionist (and that is unlikely to stop soon). What matters because that will have a say in how internet atmosphere will look like and what are viable policies. Therefore if the Democratics want to make a stand they will have to start planning about all this right away. The very fact that red wave didn't happen despite the odds rises the chances that this release of energy will happen in 2024 (and thus cause red tsunami that will be felt for many years).
I know that this will not be comforting post to many but I think am being realistic.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Re: Sinema, here are some Tweets that sum up my entire impression of her (this first one is just the beginning of a long-ish thread). I can remember some excitement about her getting elected the first time? But it's all gone downhill since then. She seems to be all about enriching herself and feels GOP-level shame (read: *none*) about giving absurdly smoke-and-mirror non-answer explanations for her votes.

The general opinion (for switching parties) across Twitter is that she knows she'll never get past Dem primary again. I think she's going to be more strategic than GOP senators who mindlessly vote whatever they're told to vote, so it's not like we're looking at 50:50 again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601255884142714880

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601323925719220224

 

[Virtual ghost]

The general opinion (for switching parties) across Twitter is that she knows she'll never get past Dem primary again. I think she's going to be more strategic than GOP senators who mindlessly vote whatever they're told to vote, so it's not like we're looking at 50:50 again.

Questionable, since she is unreliable vote. Therefore you have to plan as if you have 50:50 and have VP ready to step in. After all from what I understand she crashed a fair share of democratic "ideas". Now that she is independent that is kinda like calling spade a spade, since she was never too much of a democrat.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Questionable, since she is unreliable vote. Therefore you have to plan as if you have 50:50 and have VP ready to step in. After all from what I understand she crashed a fair share of democratic "ideas". Now that she is independent that is kinda like calling spade a spade, since she was never too much of a democrat.

Apparently she was progressive when she started, but she doesn't vote that way now. I think Manchin is probably even more of an obstacle than she is.

I think to plan on them voting against, as if they're one of the mindless useful idiots on the right, isn't as helpful as just remembering they're in the ether somewhere inbetween. Time will tell where on the spectrum their votes will fall.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601672412864868352

LMFAO. Oh my God.

 

[ceecee]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601672412864868352

LMFAO. Oh my God.

Murderer says what?

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

Murderer says what?

 

[ceecee]

lol

Florida Republican who sponsored ‘Don’t Say Gay’ resigns after federal indictment

His trial is set for Jan. 11 in Gainesville federal court.

www.politico.com

The indictment unsealed by the federal government claims that Harding listed The Vak Shack and Harding Farms, both companies that had been inactive since 2017, on application for SBA loans designed to help small businesses survive the pandemic. He also lied about their revenue numbers, bank statements, and employee counts to secure the loans, federal investigators allege.

The bigger question should be - why are you a state (or federal) rep and a business owner? I'm not really talking about this criminal - the GOP is a crime syndicate, especially at the state level. Obviously placing a business in a trust was always standard for presidents but, why should any of them be able to claim a business for relief funds, tax brakes and so on. Serve the public or serve yourself, not both.