Coronavirus

[Virtual ghost]

With Boris Johnson ill, Britain faces critical test

 

[Luminous]

How many people are wearing masks and if so, where are you getting them?

I haven't been out of my house since they suggested wearing them, but I've seen several tutorials online using bandannas, a piece of fabric, and hair ties or rubber bands. I agree with cascadeco in that the fabric mask I'll wear probably won't do that much good, but I guess it's better than nothing. I am planning to somehow attach it with yarn because just wearing it for 30 seconds, hairbands around my ears, was extremely uncomfortable.

 

[Jaguar]

I haven't been out of my house since they suggested wearing them, but I've seen several tutorials online using bandannas, a piece of fabric, and hair ties or rubber bands. I agree with cascadeco in that the fabric mask I'll wear probably won't do that much good, but I guess it's better than nothing. I am planning to somehow attach it with yarn because just wearing it for 30 seconds, hairbands around my ears, was extremely uncomfortable.

Cool beans. Thanks.

 

[Luminous]

 

[Jonny]

 

[á´…eparted]

Can you plot a linear scale as well as an exponential scale? I am curious of how things look on that presentation, and how close we are to a linear infection progression.

 

[Jonny]

Can you plot a linear scale as well as an exponential scale? I am curious of how things look on that presentation, and how close we are to a linear infection progression.

Here is an linear scale:

Also, note that I updated my graphs in the post you just quoted...added a few.

 

[á´…eparted]

Here is an linear scale:

Also, note that I updated my graphs in the post you just quoted...added a few.

I should have specified a window so the region of interest can be more easily seen😅 (mar 20 - apr 10; 50k-800k) Either way thanks and thanks for the other graphs too!

 

[JAVO]

This quarantine thing needs a theme song.

 

[Red Herring]

For us the quarantine theme song is - hands down - the theme song of the Amazon Prime animated series Stinky & Dirty the five year old has been bingewatching day after day!

... You'd be surprised how many episodes there are

 

[ceecee]

How many people are wearing masks and if so, where are you getting them?

I am. I had a few masks with replaceable filters but I made a bunch from this video for my neighbors and they are more comfortable, imo.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeap, Belarus.
The country where the guy that is in office for decades organized big sport events to show that the country is invincible to the virus.

 

[cascadeco]

Edit: Nvm re my first post which I deleted - good thing people are quality checking the data entry on this site!! Ha


Also I just noticed the more detailed notes at the bottom of the site I reference, and saw this one recently written re. NY

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

United States Coronavirus: 425,469 Cases and 14,590 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Virtual ghost]

Edit: Nvm re my first post which I deleted - good thing people are quality checking the data entry on this site!! Ha


Also I just noticed the more detailed notes at the bottom of the site I reference, and saw this one recently written re. NY

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

United States Coronavirus: 425,469 Cases and 14,590 Deaths - Worldometer

USA got plenty of new cases today and the day isn't even over yet. The biggest one day gain by any country thus far if I got it right.



However I watched a doctor on the TV the other day and she said that in this mess there is no international system of how to define death by coronavirus. Some countries don't have the time and resources to test dead people. While in some other countries if a person dies while positive that is automatically defined as corona death, even if some other medical problem killed the person. On the other hand many countries aren't doing almost any testing or claim that virus is not a problem. Therefore the data we all see is only some kind of a approximation at best.

 

[Red Herring]

USA got plenty of new cases today and the day isn't even over yet. The biggest one day gain by any country thus far if I got it right.



However I watched a doctor on the TV the other day and she said that in this mess there is no international system of how to define death by coronavirus. Some countries don't have the time and resources to test dead people. While in some other countries if a person dies while positive that is automatically defined as corona death, even if some other medical problem killed the person. On the other hand many countries aren't doing almost any testing or claim that virus is not a problem. Therefore the data we all see is only some kind of a approximation at best.

Add to that the problem of undertesting in general. The letality should be roughly the same in comparable countries so vast differences in rates are assumed to be down to how much or how little a country is testing. That way you can actually calculate how many infections are likely underected. A study of the University of Göttingen (IIRC) did that and says that the best data is from South Corea, which likely caught 50% of all infections, while many European countries only detect something in the lower one-digit range. According to those calculations both the UK and the USA are severly undertesting and derecting even less than continental Europe. That being said, we have one detected and three extremely likely undetected cases in my very own household here in Germany - a country that tests quite a lot, by comparison.

So, long story short, the available data is currently pretty shaky and strongly linked to massively varying and fluctuating testing capacities. It will take a while for information to become a little clearer. They are currently doing antibody tests on 1000 random and representative households in Munich to get some data on the invisible advancement of the infection in the population.

 

[ceecee]

One of Trump’s most lasting and under appreciated effects is the brazen handing over to and looting of basic government services by Trump cronies and donors. Even this historic public health crisis is just another rent seeking opportunity, another grift.

 

[Mind Maverick]

...is it over yet?

 

[á´…eparted]

One of Trump’s most lasting and under appreciated effects is the brazen handing over to and looting of basic government services by Trump cronies and donors. Even this historic public health crisis is just another rent seeking opportunity, another grift.

 

[Jonny]

 

[anticlimatic]

We would be much worse off if Trump didn't happen to be president right now, if you think about it in the big picture. The virus would have hit regardless- seeing as how it's hit just about every other country on the planet in similar fashion, and the shutdowns and social distancing measures would have been instated in roughly the same time under Hillary. Right now the demographic least likely to take social distancing seriously are people on the right, far right especially, who are more sensitive to losing any amount of their freedoms to government intervention than they are to their health or their neighbors. Many of these people would never have gone for it if it was a Hillary Clinton administration issuing the mandate. In fact, of the handful of right wing types I've talked sense into who were acting in very dangerous ways, the way I got straight through the conspiracy theories and got them to see the light was by being an example, and justifying myself to them by saying I was "following the presidents orders to be a good american." That shut them up almost every time, and modified their behavior. If Trump wasn't the president right now, we would not be flattening the curve anytime soon.