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Coronavirus

ceecee

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Jaguar

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What the fuck is that supposed to be - a photo of the rare Bolsonaro bird out of its tree?
 

Virtual ghost

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By the numbers I would say that situation in Europe is starting to stabilize for the most part. Since most countries are stagnating or going down in new cases.
What isn't surprising given the tougher measures and closing plenty of stuff.
 

Mole

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We haven't had a case for more than a month, and no one in hospital. We had a short sharp lockdown at the beginning, and locked out the virus.

We still have respect for medical authority, and so did as we were told.
 

Z Buck McFate

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Columbia report: US could have avoided 130,000 COVID deaths with better response


A new report from Columbia University researchers finds that at least 130,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States could have been avoided if the U.S. had responded to the virus as well as a group of other high-income countries.

The report compares the per capita death rate in the U.S. from the virus with six other high-income countries: South Korea, Japan, Australia, Germany, Canada and France.

It finds that if the U.S. had the same rate of death as France, it would have about 55,000 fewer deaths, while if it had South Korea’s rate it would have about 215,000 fewer.

“We therefore posit that had the U.S. government implemented an ‘averaged’ approach that mirrored these countries, the U.S. might have limited fatalities to between 38,000 to 85,000 lives — suggesting that a minimum of 130,000 COVID-19 deaths might have been avoidable given alternate policies, implementation, and leadership,” the report states.

The report was published by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. One of the authors, Irwin Redlener, was named to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s Public Health Advisory Committee in March to advise on the response to the coronavirus.

The report points to “abject failures of U.S. government policies and crisis messaging” in helping to explain why the United States has such a high death rate from the virus. The U.S. has has more than 220,000 deaths from the virus so far, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is about 20 percent of all of the coronavirus deaths in the world, even though the U.S. has only 4 percent of the world’s population.

The report compares the per capita death rate in the U.S. from the virus with six other high-income countries: South Korea, Japan, Australia, Germany, Canada and France.

It finds that if the U.S. had the same rate of death as France, it would have about 55,000 fewer deaths, while if it had South Korea’s rate it would have about 215,000 fewer.


“We therefore posit that had the U.S. government implemented an ‘averaged’ approach that mirrored these countries, the U.S. might have limited fatalities to between 38,000 to 85,000 lives — suggesting that a minimum of 130,000 COVID-19 deaths might have been avoidable given alternate policies, implementation, and leadership,” the report states.

The report was published by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. One of the authors, Irwin Redlener, was named to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s Public Health Advisory Committee in March to advise on the response to the coronavirus.

The report points to “abject failures of U.S. government policies and crisis messaging” in helping to explain why the United States has such a high death rate from the virus. The U.S. has has more than 220,000 deaths from the virus so far, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is about 20 percent of all of the coronavirus deaths in the world, even though the U.S. has only 4 percent of the world’s population.


It has the ninth highest number of deaths per 100,000 population in the world, behind only Peru, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Spain and Mexico.

If the U.S. had the same death rate as its neighbor Canada, about 132,000 deaths would have been avoided, the report finds.

To explain the disproportionately high number of deaths in the U.S., the report points to a number of shortcomings in the Trump administration’s response that have also drawn widespread criticism from other experts.

The country has “insufficient testing capacity” and a contact tracing system that is “woefully inadequate,” the report states.

It also points to the lack of a mask mandate or at least “the consistent encouragement of mask use” as harming the response. President Trump has mocked masks and rarely worn one himself.

The report also points to “politicization, leadership vacuum, and the failure of top officials to model best practices.” Trump in recent days has escalated attacks on his own administration’s health experts, calling National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci a “disaster.” He has also attacked the Food and Drug Administration for harboring a “deep state” and publicly clashed with the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In contrast, the report states: “Many nations facing the pandemic crisis have put politics aside and orchestrated a response led by public health experts and global coordination.”

“Canada, for instance, has witnessed a unique period of political unity surrounding COVID-19 this year,” it adds.
 

Virtual ghost

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Just lovely.


France 41 600
Spain 21 000
UK 21 200
Italy 16 000
Germany 12 000
Belgium 13 200
Poland 12 100
Etc.



Today global daily record is going down for sure.
 

Mole

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Today we have had our first case of infection in three months, and wouldn't you know, it is a diplomat returning from overseas, who is now isolated.
 

Red Herring

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[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] Your numbers seem to be rounded up as the official number here in Germany is currently 11.242, not 12.000.... which is obviously still bad enough. Measures are sharpened all over the place though, so I really hope we can slow this down and/or turn it around like we did in spring.
By now Germany has crossed the psychologically important threshold of 10.000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic (at a population of about 82 million). There seems to be a political will to keep schools and kindergarden open as long as possible this time due to the immense social cost (our daycare now doesn't let parents even enter the building, you just hand your kid over at the door of the main entrance) but it is forseeable that a limit of the number of people you can meet privately (as in no meetings of more than two households or more than two people not living together) is around the corner if this thing isn't turned around in the next few days.
At least now there is much more knowledge about what does and what doesn't work. The last lockdown was hard (though milder than in Spain, France or Italy) and worked very, very well. But a second lockdown would be harder to digest. This time the main factor seems to be private meetings rather than superspreader events as there has been some percolation effect during the summer and people dropped their guard.
 

Virtual ghost

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[MENTION=4347]Virtual ghost[/MENTION] Your numbers seem to be rounded up as the official number here in Germany is currently 11.242, not 12.000.... which is obviously still bad enough. Measures are sharpened all over the place though, so I really hope we can slow this down and/or turn it around like we did in spring.
By now Germany has crossed the psychologically important threshold of 10.000 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic (at a population of about 82 million). There seems to be a political will to keep schools and kindergarden open as long as possible this time due to the immense social cost (our daycare now doesn't let parents even enter the building, you just hand your kid over at the door of the main entrance) but it is forseeable that a limit of the number of people you can meet privately (as in no meetings of more than two households or more than two people not living together) is around the corner if this thing isn't turned around in the next few days.
At least now there is much more knowledge about what does and what doesn't work. The last lockdown was hard (though milder than in Spain, France or Italy) and worked very, very well. But a second lockdown would be harder to digest. This time the main factor seems to be private meetings rather than superspreader events as there has been some percolation effect during the summer and people dropped their guard.


I deliberately round up numbers since then they are more easy to process if there is a plenty of them. Otherwise you just get forest that takes effort to process.
Plus I generally round up at larger number since when thousands are involved doctors evidently didn't detect every case. Therefore that formal number is surely kinda fictional when you draw the bottom line.


Also there is a problem with timing, few hours after and the numbers will no longer match in separate reports. Since the numbers aren't static in this problem. That being said, could you check the formal German number of cases now ? Worldometer one is at 12 519 for yesterday.



Btw here we have multiple times bigger daily numbers than you if we count per capita. The politics is digesting it but we will need some kinda of lockdown again, at least in certain parts of the country. Because the problem is unequally spread. However now lockdowns have to be very tough but fairly short. So that they disrupt infection in a way that doesn't hurt the economy too much and that you have a smaller hole that the government can easily fully cover. Weeks and weeks of half lockdown probably ain't going to do it and economic damage will still be severe.
 
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