Coronavirus

[FemMecha]

Hit it with everything you got.

“There are many bad things about the coronavirus, but there is one good thing: It is not very hardy,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an expert on infectious diseases and a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health. “It is easily destroyed by most disinfectants.”


Many common household cleaning products can kill the coronavirus if you use them properly

List N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 | Pesticide Registration | US EPA

 

[Red Memories]

France is saying many of their ICU patients are under 60 years old.

I feel it is necessary to keep stating stats like this so people don't just go only old people are gonna die anyway.

 

[Jaguar]

Instead of stopping the cytokine storm through inflammatory drugs like ibuprofen or nsaids

Anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive drugs have not been successful in treating cytokine storm and improving survival. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), such as ibuprofen, are used commonly to treat mild to moderate inflammation, but have not demonstrated the ability to control cytokine storm.

An Effective Treatment Strategy for Cytokine Storm in Severe Influenza | American Laboratory

 

[Jaguar]

One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.
DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic - POLITICO

 

[ceecee]

Federal law enforcement document reveals white supremacists discussed using coronavirus as a bioweapon

 

[Vendrah]

There are some rumors that "insiders" of somewhere in my country thinks that the Corona Virus will endure 3 months in my country (and for US that would be 2 and a half), did someone heard something like that? Or perhaps its just a wild guess?

 

[FemMecha]

There are some rumors that "insiders" of somewhere in my country thinks that the Corona Virus will endure 3 months in my country (and for US that would be 2 and a half), did someone heard something like that? Or perhaps its just a wild guess?

I mostly know that there was initially an 8-week closure for a lot of schools and facilities in the U.S., but I think those timeframes are being extended - some indefinitely. I have family in New York and they say it is really bad there and that this is going to be an issue for a while without a definite sense of when it ends. I hope others can provide more specific information for you.

She was also telling me that the virus transmits from surfaces that people touch with their hands especially in public places like gas pumps, handles, doorknobs, railings. Wearing anything to cover your mouth helps a little even if much less that the correct mask. I wear rubber gloves which I sanitize before and after use, I spray the bottoms of my boots if I have to go outside, and I am limited exiting my apartment to once every few weeks to empty the trash. I will come back in, put my clothes in detergent water, take a bath with a little bleach in the water, wash my hair, spray down my keys, boots, and gloves, each time I do this.

Another issue is that multiple contacts with the virus is worse than a single contact, so it isn't like chicken pox or something. I am concerned that the people who die have contracted either the worse strains and/or multiple strains of it with re-exposure from many surfaces. My point is that I think even if you have the virus, it's important to avoid surfaces like the plague.

I am also trying to find out what temperature kills the virus. I know they were hoping the hot weather would kill it, but it might have mutated to adapt to the hotter climates. I was wondering if the body raises its temperature to naturally fight it, then is it worth artificially raising body temperature by taking a hot bath and drinking tea at the same time to simulate a fever?

 

[Jonny]

 

[á´…eparted]

The most prominent virologist here in Germany, who also advises the government, said he doesn't consider hydroxychloroquine to be of much use in this situation.

I am glad this is coming out. When I first saw it my initial reaction was "what? that works? That doesn't make any sense at all, and its got really bad side effects". Antivirals make sense, not hydroxychlorquine

I have a PhD in organic chem for those who don't know, so this stuff is an area where I do hold expertise. Also, and I am sorry for having to call this out, but people here really should not be listening to Tellenbach's interpretations on the medicinal side of covid. He doesn't understand the material deeply enough to assess it properly and will give people false information and impressions unknowingly.

 

[Jonny]

...people here really should not be listening to Tellenbach...

The quickest way to end the pandemic is to deliberately infect every healthy person under 50 in a controlled environment, quarantine them, and then release them after the 14 day period. If we do this now with K-12 students, they'll be healthy in time for the SATs and AP tests.

 

[á´…eparted]

The quickest way to end the pandemic is to deliberately infect every healthy person under 50 in a controlled environment, quarantine them, and then release them after the 14 day period. If we do this now with K-12 students, they'll be healthy in time for the SATs and AP tests.

Exactly, cause what's a few million deaths anyway in the name of the greater good. Best to just burn it all out now and be done with it. We'll all be fine. Not like it matters either, most of them won't aspire to any sort of greatness anyway.

 

[Red Herring]

I am glad this is coming out. When I first saw it my initial reaction was "what? that works? That doesn't make any sense at all, and its got really bad side effects". Antivirals make sense, not hydroxychlorquine

I have a PhD in organic chem for those who don't know, so this stuff is an area where I do hold expertise. Also, and I am sorry for having to call this out, but people here really should not be listening to Tellenbach's interpretations on the medicinal side of covid. He doesn't understand the material deeply enough to assess it properly and will give people false information and impressions unknowingly.

Yep.
I'm nö medical expert. My sister has a PhD in molecular biotechnology and wrote her thesis on aviary Influenza, so she is my usual go-to person for virology. Otherwise I listen to the WHO, the Robert Koch Institut (basically our German CDC) and experts like Christian Drosten. Drosten, the expert I referred to in the previous post is an expert in emerging viruses. He worked on SARS and MERS before. You know that test most countries outsider the United States use? He's the leader of the team that developed it. So yeah, as a layman you've gotta pick whose expertise you trust.

Also, I have enough MINT folks in my environment to recognize red flags. Cautiousness and hesitation to deal in absolutes tends to be a good sign. Overconfidence and oversimplification a bad one.

 

[cascadeco]

She was also telling me that the virus transmits from surfaces that people touch with their hands especially in public places like gas pumps, handles, doorknobs, railings.

A bit of a side comment/thought, here. Firstly, I do not at all want to diminish the importance of people being more aware of this sort of thing, now. Obviously it's especially important given the severity of this outbreak. I do think though it's important to note that this concept applies to many ( most? all?) diseases out there. Any community-used tool, whether a door handle, gas station pump, shopping cart, buttons on a credit card keypad, elevator buttons, spoons in a buffet.... They have always been contact zones. I suppose for me on a personal level, this just highlights the fact I've always been a mild germophobe? For years I've used purell after any gas station interaction, or after handling cash; I haven't touched a public door handle directly for ages, and if I have no paper towel option just use part of my clothing. This has caused eye rolling from parents or humorous smiles from friends sometimes, but I bet everyone's tune will change going forward.

Again - I am glad people are highly aware now and are thinking twice about everything they touch. But I guess I felt compelled to stress that this element is not novel to the coronavirus. It's certainly poignant, now, and extra important, though.

Edit: I am reminded of a coworker who early in the week said she never thought about any of this before, and is now retrospectively horrified at what she used to touch without thinking twice and then continuing to go about her business of doing other stuff.

 

[Nicodemus]

Merkel is in quarantine as a first contact of a doctor who has tested positive.

The end is nigh!

 

[Nicodemus]

In typical libertarian cuckoo clock fashion, Rand Paul votes against bi-partisan, emergency war package for fighting the Coronavirus.

Sen. Rand Paul votes against $8 billion coronavirus emergency package | News | wdrb.com

Coronavirus finds new ally in its unrelenting drive to infect every city and neighborhood of America; libertarianism.

Muhahaha:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...nner-main_virus-ticker-105am:prime-time/promo

 

[Virtual ghost]

NY is doubling every day, this will not end well.

 

[cascadeco]

NY is doubling every day, this will not end well.

New York's escalation is really bad.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I'm glad that Illinois has taken very stringent measures. I think the disruption is worth it.

 

[Jonny]

Why can't we more accurately estimate mortality rate by dividing total deaths by total known cases?

Most people quickly grasp that if there are a number of undiagnosed / asymptomatic infections, if you divide the total number of deaths by the total number of known cases, you'll no doubt get a higher mortality rate than reflects reality. In other words, any such estimate could be an overestimate.

But it's important to consider the conditions that could cause such an estimate to be an underestimate of mortality as well. Imagine you have a virus that is growing rapidly throughout a population. For simplicity, let's suppose that the number of infected doubles each day. Now imagine that the virus, on average, takes 5 days to kill someone from time of diagnosis. Further, let's suppose that such a virus has a 100% mortality rate. We'll start with 1 "Patient 0" on day 1:

Day	Total Known Cases	Total Deaths	Calculated Mortality Rate
1	1	0	0%
2	2	0	0%
3	4	0	0%
4	8	0	0%
5	16	0	0%
6	32	1	3.125%
7	64	2	3.125%
8	128	4	3.125%
9	256	8	3.125%

so on and so forth. In this case, as long as the growth factor and mortality delay remain the same, dividing total deaths by total known cases will produce an estimated mortality rate of 3.125%, even though we already know the rate is 100%.

Considering only the following variables: u = the % of asymptomatic or undiagnosed patients, d = the average delay between diagnosis and death, g = the daily growth factor, and m = the underlying "true" mortality, the rate observed by dividing total deaths by total known cases should be roughly

m x g[SUP]-d[/SUP] x (1-u)​

In the example case above, we have 100% x 2[SUP]-5[/SUP] x (1-0) = 3.125%. Large rates of growth and long delays between diagnosis and death will result in greater underestimation, and larger shares of undiagnosed / asymptomatic people will result in greater overestimation.

Of course we know that those variables aren't the only inputs. And, it is hard to know each of those input variables with any accuracy in such a rapidly evolving situation. The point is, until all the cases are resolved (i.e. everyone is either cured or dead), we won't know the true mortality rate. As more time goes on, we should get a better sense of it.

 

[Tellenbach]

California's doing pretty well; we have 164 new cases; New York has 5429 new cases. Maybe President Trump should think about quarantining the entire state - no interstate travel into or out of New York.