Trump vs. Biden

[Jonny]

How many former Trump officials or associates have to come out against him before people wake up to his utter incompetence and selfishness. He is unacceptable.

 

[Jonny]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polls

Texas: Trump +2
Texas: Biiden +1
New Mexico: Biden +15

 

[Virtual ghost]

I was thinking about all of this and there are probably people who refuse saying to the polls that they will vote for Trump. However by that same logic in red leaning states there could be hidden Biden voters, which are hiding due to the same reason. (Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Arizona ... etc. )

 

[ceecee]

How many former Trump officials or associates have to come out against him before people wake up to his utter incompetence and selfishness. He is unacceptable.

Sure but I really don't know that any of these people are going to change opinions. There is also a pro Trump PAC You Tube commercial talking about giving 11 million undocumented people amnesty overnight.

Trump’s New Campaign Ads Attack Biden’s Support for a Path to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants? Yasss! | America's Voice

Sounds a lot like Reagan in 1985 - with the stroke of a pen. I agree with almost nothing Reagan said or did except this. This would be the very first thing on my to do list when it comes to immigration if I was Biden.

Also, this kind of attack on immigrants always backfires. Except with ethnostate fans, white supremacists and right funded groups like FAIR. The average Trump voter hasn't clue one about immigration laws in this country or what has been immigration policy in the recent past. They will claim they want legal immigration but make it impossible to do for most.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Sure but I really don't know that any of these people are going to change opinions. There is also a pro Trump PAC You Tube commercial talking about giving 11 million undocumented people amnesty overnight.

Trump’s New Campaign Ads Attack Biden’s Support for a Path to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants? Yasss! | America's Voice

Sounds a lot like Reagan in 1985 - with the stroke of a pen. I agree with almost nothing Reagan said or did except this. This would be the very first thing on my to do list when it comes to immigration if I was Biden.

Also, this kind of attack on immigrants always backfires. Except with ethnostate fans, white supremacists and right funded groups like FAIR. The average Trump voter hasn't clue one about immigration laws in this country or what has been immigration policy in the recent past. They will claim they want legal immigration but make it impossible to do for most.

I am sorry but there are days when I really don't get you. You rant against the right all the time and then defend one of the the most right wing economic policies there is, which is mass immigration. Because with mass immigration you are disrupting the balance between employers and employees, you trivialize unions, you lower the need for free college since you can just import experts, you lower the need for socialized medicine since you can just import new workers from the third world ... etc. Plus in the countries of origin you basically lower the need for free college , because if people emigrate in mass there is no need to spend taxpayers money on educating the young (and you disrupt families in the whole process). Not to mention that "let's open the borders to everyone since this is the best country in the world" kinda has subtle nationalistic feeling to it.

 

[The Cat]

This system doesn't work if people opt out.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Wisconsin: Biden +6

 

[ceecee]

I am sorry but there are days when I really don't get you. You rant against the right all the time and then defend one of the the most right wing economic policies there is, which is mass immigration. Because with mass immigration you are disrupting the balance between employers and employees, you trivialize unions, you lower the need for free college since you can just import experts, you lower the need for socialized medicine since you can just import new workers from the third world ... etc. Plus in the countries of origin you basically lower the need for free college , because if people emigrate in mass there is no need to spend taxpayers money on educating the young (and you disrupt families in the whole process). Not to mention that "let's open the borders to everyone since this is the best country in the world" kinda has subtle nationalistic feeling to it.

I've never said to open the borders to everyone or mass immigration - I'm talking about the people already here.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I've never said to open the borders to everyone or mass immigration - I'm talking about the people already here.

Well, I simply didn't get that impression. Especially due to the last sentence. But ok.


I mean I understand that complete isolation also isn't good and that you have to save the people that are literally running from genocide. But too much immigration is also opening a number of issues at home. From economic ones to nationalism. Therefore one should be careful with this.

 

[Coriolis]

Well, I simply didn't get that impression. Especially due to the last sentence. But ok.


I mean I understand that complete isolation also isn't good and that you have to save the people that are literally running from genocide. But too much immigration is also opening a number of issues at home. From economic ones to nationalism. Therefore one should be careful with this.

As I have mentioned before, I was hoping that Trump would crack down on the employers who offer jobs to illegal immigrants, and cut back on the work visas for immigrants with special -- usually STEM - skills in order to encourage US students to pursue these fields. No dice.

 

[Virtual ghost]

As I have mentioned before, I was hoping that Trump would crack down on the employers who offer jobs to illegal immigrants, and cut back on the work visas for immigrants with special -- usually STEM - skills in order to encourage US students to pursue these fields. No dice.

That is because he is either fake or incompetent "patriot". In the case he was serious about his platform from 4 years ago he would take 2020 just like that (even with the virus in the mix). However the moment I saw that he isn't seriously reforming education system I knew that bringing back the jobs wouldn't happen on visible scale. While on the other hand there is the problem that economy will require less and less people in physical sense and therefore mass immigration is likely to make things worse in this regard. What is then very likely to boost nationalism. It doesn't even matter if it is justified or not since large crisis in economy or governing is always boosting nationalism in the end.

 

[Jaguar]

I was thinking about all of this and there are probably people who refuse saying to the polls that they will vote for Trump. However by that same logic in red leaning states there could be hidden Biden voters, which are hiding due to the same reason. (Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Arizona ... etc. )

Why A "Hidden" Trump Vote Can't Explain His Bad Poll Numbers - The New York Times

Salient point:

If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said, other numbers in the poll would reflect that, like seeing an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden. “It would not be people saying they are voting for Biden,” he said, “but that they’re undecided.”

In 2016, the sheer number of undecided voters right up until even walking in the door to vote were significant. That is not the case in 2020.

Also worth reading:

Why Trump is unlikely to pull off an election surprise against Biden like he did with Clinton - MarketWatch

 

[Virtual ghost]

In 2016, the sheer number of undecided voters right up until even walking in the door to vote were significant. That is not the case in 2020.

Also worth reading:

Why Trump is unlikely to pull off an election surprise against Biden like he did with Clinton - MarketWatch

In my opinion his greatest problem is that he is the incumbent president (with pretty bad record). So there is no longer the great mystery of "what it might have been". Plus many that skipped 2016 because "Hillary is bad" will mostly show up this time.

 

[Virtual ghost]

At this point Biden basically has to figure out how to boost Pennsylvania and Minnesota for about 3 points. If he manages to do that Trump simply has no path, with exception that the polls are even more wrong than the last time. Plus Biden should be able to pick up at least some other battleground states, what will be more than enough for victory. Therefore if the blue wall holds this time the game is over, what happens in Florida, Iowa, Arizona, NC, Georgia, Ohio ... etc. it doesn't matter too much. Even if it is better to have wider victory if possible.




If the blue wall is genuinely fortified there simply is no realistic path for Trump. You can win every other battleground and it still isn't enough (what isn't likely scenario btw).

 

[Jonny]

At this point Biden basically has to figure out how to boost Pennsylvania and Minnesota for about 3 points. If he manages to do that Trump simply has no path, with exception that the polls are even more wrong than the last time. Plus Biden should be able to pick up at least some other battleground states, what will be more than enough for victory. Therefore if the blue wall holds this time the game is over, what happens in Florida, Iowa, Arizona, NC, Georgia, Ohio ... etc. it doesn't matter too much. Even if it is better to have wider victory if possible.




If the blue wall is genuinely fortified there simply is no realistic path for Trump. You can win every other battleground and it still isn't enough (what isn't likely scenario btw).

There is evidence that recency bias is resulting in more distrust of the polls than is warranted. No doubt some statewide polls missed the mark in 2016, but they have an incentive not to. Many of the pollsters now are weighting by education, which *should* produce more accurate results this time around.

 

[Jaguar]

New Pa. 2020 election poll shows Biden leading Trump by 8 as almost all voters decided

For those of you who don't understand the importance of undecided voters, who they're breaking for, and the points in time they exist, don't bother reading the article.

 

[Virtual ghost]

There is evidence that recency bias is resulting in more distrust of the polls than is warranted. No doubt some statewide polls missed the mark in 2016, but they have an incentive not to. Many of the pollsters now are weighting by education, which *should* produce more accurate results this time around.

Well, 2016 was quite volatile so that indeed helps in missing the target. Plus a decent chunk of polls was within general margin of error.
But as I said in 2020 the mess is probably greater but everyone knows who is who. What really helps with polling being correct.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Wisconsin: Biden +8


New Mexico senate seat: Blue +9

 

[Red Herring]