Trump vs. Biden

[Virtual ghost]

Go Zona!

Zona ?

 

[The Cat]

Zona ?

Arizona - Ari = 'Zona. It's easier to cheer. also has a fun apostrophe in the front.

 

[Jonny]

So, I took a look at the model output from the Economist (they provide the results of their 40,000 trials for download). Based upon that information, I was able to extract the 20 most likely outcomes for the electoral college, based on their model. These represent 35% of the trials. The modal scenario (the single trial with the highest likelihood) is, as expected, the scenario that results from given biden all states where he has a >50% chance of winning, and giving the rest to Trump. The (maybe) surprising thing is, this result is still <5% likely to occur.

 

[Jaguar]

Post-convention polls show Biden still in command - POLITICO

 

[Jonny]

For the sake of balance, these are the modal (top 20) Trump victory scenarios from the Economist forecast. Note that in terms of all possible scenarios, they are actually quite far down the line - Trump's most likely victory scenario is still only the 55th most likely overall, and all these scenarios combined total just 3.6% of all trials. The Economist model gives Trump about a 15% chance overall, so these represent about 25% of the trials where Trump wins.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Arizona - Ari = 'Zona. It's easier to cheer. also has a fun apostrophe in the front.

Ok, since now that you mention it this is indeed kinda obvious.
I mean If Arizona flips that really makes it harder for Trump to get to 270. What overall is probably "Latino" and McCain factor coming into play for this state, since a decent chunk of McCain's base will probably go to Biden. Therefore Biden is doing pretty well there lately if we consider that this is basically a red state. While the AZ senate seat is going blue with double digits numbers. (even Fox has it at Blue +17 in latest poll)




Plus if we will post maps here is mine "educated guess" for this point in time. (WI and MI are barely lean D)

 

[ceecee]

Ok, since now that you mention it this is indeed kinda obvious.
I mean If Arizona flips that really makes it harder for Trump to get to 270. What overall is probably "Latino" and McCain factor coming into play for this state, since a decent chunk of McCain's base will probably go to Biden. Therefore Biden is doing pretty well there lately if we consider that this is basically a red state. While the AZ senate seat is going blue with double digits numbers. (even Fox has it at Blue +17 in latest poll)




Plus if we will post maps here is mine "educated guess" for this point in time. (WI and MI are barely lean D)

I don't think there ever was a chance Martha McSally retained that senate seat. Certainly not against this candidate. He's an absolute wet dream for centrist Democrats. This is why I keep saying - all Dems need to do is run someone relatively famous. In this case - an astronaut.

 

[Red Memories]

I don't think there ever was a chance Martha McSally retained that senate seat. Certainly not against this candidate. He's an absolute wet dream for centrist Democrats. This is why I keep saying - all Dems need to do is run someone relatively famous. In this case - an astronaut.

but it is sad that "fame" means more to people than actual policy or ability to do said job.

I felt the same way when Trump became legit and not a joke. Like I did not believe for a second that man could win presidency and I laughed him off and suddenly.
oh this is...real?

um...

 

[Virtual ghost]

I don't think there ever was a chance Martha McSally retained that senate seat. Certainly not against this candidate. He's an absolute wet dream for centrist Democrats. This is why I keep saying - all Dems need to do is run someone relatively famous. In this case - an astronaut.

Yeah, I heard about Oprah 2020.


But there seems to be a shot at the senate as a whole, many races are leaning blue. Not as much as this one but the trend is still visibly blue. Colorado, Maine, Iowa, NC, even SC, Kansas and Alaska are vulnerable.

 

[ceecee]

Yeah, I heard about Oprah 2020.


But there seems to be a shot at the senate as a whole, many races are leaning blue. Not as much as this one but the trend is still visibly blue. Colorado, Maine, Iowa, NC, even SC, Kansas and Alaska are vulnerable.

Well, she never ran. But you can't tell me if Urban Meyer ran for a congressional seat in Ohio, that he wouldn't win it. Party doesn't matter. Celebrity is what the electorate wants apparently, competency is not really a consideration (see Trump).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, she never ran. But you can't tell me if Urban Meyer ran for a congressional seat in Ohio, that he wouldn't win it. Party doesn't matter. Celebrity is what the electorate wants apparently, competency is not really a consideration (see Trump).

Well that is actually a global trend, celebrities that turn into politicians. Some are terrible while some manage to do a decent job. Since at the top networking is very important and this is where this profile of people does well. The only real potential pitfall is that they need to have experts around themselves.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Biden wants live fact-checking across the bottom of the screen during debates. Would it make a difference?

I don't think there ever was a chance Martha McSally retained that senate seat. Certainly not against this candidate. He's an absolute wet dream for centrist Democrats. This is why I keep saying - all Dems need to do is run someone relatively famous. In this case - an astronaut.

Alan Alda has said he's been approached a few times over the years and asked to consider running for Congress. As ridiculous as it is, the strong association to the (fictional) character Hawkeye probably gives him a decent chance. Although really, years of hosting science shows probably lend to that integrity he seems to have cultivated. (He declined every time and continues to have no interest, even though he's too old now anyway).

 

[ceecee]

Biden wants live fact-checking across the bottom of the screen during debates. Would it make a difference?

Please god no. Everything Trump says is a lie or a distortion, disinformation or some kind of fantasy playing out in his head. There is no need or point in fact checking.

Alan Alda has said he's been approached a few times over the years and asked to consider running for Congress. As ridiculous as it is, the strong association to the (fictional) character Hawkeye probably gives him a decent chance. Although really, years of hosting science shows probably lend to that integrity he seems to have cultivated. (He declined every time and continues to have no interest, even though he's too old now anyway).

Exactly. It reminds me of this.

Bradley Cooper was at the DNC -- and some people are not amused - CNN

"How can Bradley Cooper be a democrat when he played Chris Kyle?!"

He played a role, a right wing nutball that got killed because he had questionable judgement and made bad choices. But if Bradly Cooper became a right wing conservative MAGA chud, he could be run for any office and win.

 

[Z Buck McFate]

But if Bradly Cooper became a right wing conservative MAGA chud, he could be run for any office and win.

The best they've gotten thus far is Gopher from Love Boat, right? They proudly parade the slim pickens B List they can find for support (James Woods, Scott Baio, Jon Voight, and... ?), they'd be tripping over each other for someone actually popular.

Actually I think Kelsey Grammer is Republican, he's pretty cool, but I don't think I've seen him affiliate himself with Trumpublicans. I like to think even Gopher would be reticent.

 

[ceecee]

The best they've gotten thus far is Gopher from Love Boat, right? They proudly parade the slim pickens B List they can find for support (James Woods, Scott Baio, Jon Voight, and... ?), they'd be tripping over each other for someone actually popular.

Actually I think Kelsey Grammer is Republican, he's pretty cool, but I don't think I've seen him affiliate himself with Trumpublicans. I like to think even Gopher would be reticent.

The right tries to make people think they have immense numbers of "silent" supporters, in voters and in celebrities. While at the same time telling them to stick to acting or shut up and dribble, which is a super great way to cultivate celebrities, amirite?

But they want very badly to actually have celebrities in their ranks the way the Democrats do. Until the right/conservatives/GOP grasp that the majority of issues most have are human rights or civil rights and these are not political. The right politicizes these rights for women, for POC, immigrants, marginalized and disenfranchise... which makes people who use their celebrity to fight for these rights, really unlikely to be the next top tier speaker at the RNC.

 

[Jaguar]

.

 

[Jaguar]

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’ - The Atlantic

When President Donald Trump canceled a visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018, he blamed rain for the last-minute decision, saying that “the helicopter couldn’t fly” and that the Secret Service wouldn’t drive him there. Neither claim was true.

Trump rejected the idea of the visit because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain, and because he did not believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people with firsthand knowledge of the discussion that day. In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed.


And Americans actually voted for this guy.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

And Americans actually voted for this guy.

We're a culture of liars that values style over substance. What do you expect?

 

[Coriolis]

The right tries to make people think they have immense numbers of "silent" supporters, in voters and in celebrities. While at the same time telling them to stick to acting or shut up and dribble, which is a super great way to cultivate celebrities, amirite?

But they want very badly to actually have celebrities in their ranks the way the Democrats do. Until the right/conservatives/GOP grasp that the majority of issues most have are human rights or civil rights and these are not political. The right politicizes these rights for women, for POC, immigrants, marginalized and disenfranchise... which makes people who use their celebrity to fight for these rights, really unlikely to be the next top tier speaker at the RNC.

I found it interesting that, out of the 105 women in the US House of Representatives, 90 are Democrats. Where are all the Republican women?

 

[Jaguar]

We're a culture of liars that values style over substance. What do you expect?

Get professional counseling.