Random Politics Thread

[Virtual ghost]

Further to your point, would RFK as an independent hurt Trump or Biden more? He is a crackpot antivaxxer and conspiracy theory buff from what I understand, which I think would appeal most to MAGA and Q anon nuts, so my instinct would be that would draw away from Trump and the Republicans. But one never knows when it comes to those kind of irrational thinkers.

This is basically why I asked. Since the guy is pretty big wildcard in what is evidently pretty thigh race.

From what I understand he is mostly feeding in the pool of people who are tired of the "red and blue" story. What then makes the whole thing unpredictable in the current climate. Especially since most people aren't aware of the fact that in genuine 3 way race the line of winning isn't around 50 percent, but around 33 percent. So if the dude really has about 25 percent as some polls are suggesting you can't rule out that he will take some states (perhaps even "solid" ones). What would basically mean that all bets are off. The conventions of US politics are simply falling party if you no longer have just blue/red choice.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

This is basically why I asked. Since the guy is pretty big wildcard in what is evidently pretty thigh race.

So if the dude really has about 25 percent as some polls are suggesting you can't rule out that he will take some states (perhaps even "solid" ones). What would basically mean that all bets are off. The conventions of US politics are simply falling party if you no longer have just blue/red choice.

Why is he polling 25%? Trump was attractive to the "Alex Jones/QAnon crowd" and never really had a "sell-out" moment that's stuck. RFK Jr. is offering the same thing. I wonder why someone would abandon Trump for that. I can come up with one reason, and it's pretty stupid. There were rumors going around during his presidency that Q was actually JFK Jr (who in this narrative, survived, obviously). Perhaps RFK is thought to have some connection to the JFK thing and if they elect him, they can spill the beans wide open. That's really the only theory I have.

Otherwise Trump seem like the preferable choice for them. He's supposed to be rich (which is all a lot of people here need) and evokes nostalgia for the 00s (the Golden Age of the War on Terror). Plus he claims to be a persecuted martyr which helps for the more evangelically-oriented,

 

[Virtual ghost]

Why is he polling 25%? Trump was attractive to the "Alex Jones/QAnon crowd" and never really had a "sell-out" moment that's stuck. RFK Jr. is offering the same thing. I wonder why someone would abandon Trump for that. I can come up with one reason, and it's pretty stupid. There were rumors going around during his presidency that Q was actually JFK Jr (who in this narrative, survived, obviously). Perhaps RFK is thought to have some connection to the JFK thing and if they elect him, they can spill the beans wide open. That's really the only theory I have.

Otherwise Trump seem like the preferable choice for them. He's supposed to be rich (which is all a lot of people here need) and evokes nostalgia for the 00s (the Golden Age of the War on Terror). Plus he claims to be a persecuted martyr which helps for the more evangelically-oriented,

All things considered there is plenty of people who are simply bored with the whole red/blue thing. Plus you must realize that half of the country doesn't vote. However if you have strong 3rd party many of those people will activate. As foreigner I don't really know what is going on here and that is exactly why I opened this topic. Since just about everything suggests that this is one big wildcard waiting to happen. What also requires some fundamental rethinking about how elections work, because 3 way race is something completely different than 2 way race. I believe I have something like 23 political parties in the parliament and to me there is no real shock in all of this. However how people here think I am not sure that everyone here realizes what genuine 3 way race would mean. Since that would brake plenty of conventional wisdom (like winning a state with 35% of the vote). But to be honest I can understand why that could bring some people in, even if they don't really like the guy that much. Therefore If the guy already has over 20% it is possible that you guys are on the road for some genuine culture shocks.




"Independent voters will vote independent" isn't exactly rocket science.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The "problem" is that formal media are saying that he is running as an independent. While those polls that are taking him into the consideration are making him to be genuine 3rd party in all this. What as shown before changes plenty of things and I am not even sure what the law says about all of this. Or how this should be treated in the terms of details. If he can take another 10% out of both Biden and Trump and bring a new chunk of none voters he could perhaps even win (with pretty solid margins once you do the math).

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

The "problem" is that formal media are saying that he is running as an independent. While those polls that are taking him into the consideration are making him to be genuine 3rd party in all this. What as shown before changes plenty of things and I am not even sure what the law says about all of this. Or how this should be treated in the terms of details. If he can take another 10% out of both Biden and Trump and bring a new chunk of none voters he could perhaps even win (with pretty solid margins once you do the math).

I suppose none of us know. It doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Plus the slogan fits the story.
There are surely people who could buy this out of the box rhetoric.

I am just unsure what to make of this. Since this looks as a genuine third party campaign on all levels.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I suppose none of us know. It doesn't make sense to me.

Don't worry, I know that I make things too complicated almost by default.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Plus the slogan fits the story.
There are surely people who could buy this out of the box rhetoric.

I am just unsure what to make of this. Since this looks as a genuine third party campaign on all levels.

You know what? I think I know someone who would vote for this. I don't think he would have voted for Biden.

I thought of another angle, which is the Middle East, but I can't see him taking away anyone from Biden after reading this.
https://www.newsweek.com/cornel-west-rfk-jr-very-different-messages-israel-attacks-1832924

In contrast, Kennedy Jr. shared a statement that supported any military action taken by Israel against Hamas.

Kennedy Jr., who has previously publicly stated his support for Israel, said in an October 7 X post: "This ignominious, unprovoked, and barbaric attack on Israel must be met with world condemnation and unequivocal support for the Jewish state's right to self-defense. We must provide Israel with whatever it needs to defend itself—now.

So that's not gonna do it.

I will concede that I don't know for sure, but mostly I think this looks bad for Trump.

 

[Virtual ghost]

You know what? I think I know someone who would vote for this. I don't think he would have voted for Biden.

I thought of another angle, which is the Middle East, but I can't see him taking away anyone from Biden after reading this.
https://www.newsweek.com/cornel-west-rfk-jr-very-different-messages-israel-attacks-1832924


So that's not gonna do it.

I will concede that I don't know for sure, but mostly I think this looks bad for Trump.

Ok, but Middle east mess probably wouldn't last and elections are a year away. I doubt this will come as a major topic at the peak of campaign(s).

While If he hit a few nerves with people all bets are off. We will just have to wait and see where all of this is going.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

And now this is thrown into the mix: Centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin says he will not seek re-election in 2024

The idea of him running for President bothers me more than RFK.

 

[The Cat]

And now this is thrown into the mix: Centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin says he will not seek re-election in 2024

The idea of him running for President bothers me more than RFK.

 

[Stigmata]

Plus the slogan fits the story.
There are surely people who could buy this out of the box rhetoric.

I am just unsure what to make of this. Since this looks as a genuine third party campaign on all levels.

The RFK pied piper strategy backfired on Republicans, as he draws way more Trump voters who want all the conspiracy theory fun without having to deal with that dreadful cognitive dissonance of having to continually reject the objective reality of his pending legal situation.

The fact that they ever thought this guy would appeal to Democrats just because his last name is Kennedy, shows just how deep in their own echo chambers and out of touch they are.

 

[The Cat]

Agreed. Antivaxxers also bother me quite a lot. I'm very frustrated with a lot of people very invested in believing something that isn't true while not believing something that is true.

Ive had to make peace with the fact that there are antivaxxers and there are people who dont want to do it. The biggest way you can tell the difference is that the people who dont want to do it generally keep their mouths shut. I can deal with a person like that. Have you run into a flat earther in the wild yet?

 

[Virtual ghost]

The RFK pied piper strategy backfired on Republicans, as he draws way more Trump voters who want all the conspiracy theory fun without having to deal with that dreadful cognitive dissonance of having to continually reject the objective reality of his pending legal situation.

The fact that they ever thought this guy would appeal to Democrats just because his last name is Kennedy, shows just how deep in their own echo chambers and out of touch they are.

Ok, but I am under impression that you have kinda idealistic picture of what is democratic voter. Not all democrats are young, educated and urban people (some are none of those). So if RFK runs as independent he will almost surely be able to disrupt the races in the swing states. Which should again be won by a point or less. Plus if he really and already has about 20%, who knows what could happen. After all half of the country doesn't vote and idenpendent candidate could activate some of those people. In my book Trumpists/republicans are too much of a loyalists to go RFK in mass, while centrists that generally go to the dems could go RFK this time. But all of that is the risk we will just have to live with over the next year.


Plus I see something that Jill Stein is coming back as well, what could cut off another chunk of the Democrats.


Long story short: I just don't like the odds that democrats have in 2024. For me this is all just too tight and too much of a "maybe" for my liking.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Ive had to make peace with the fact that there are antivaxxers and there are people who dont want to do it. The biggest way you can tell the difference is that the people who dont want to do it generally keep their mouths shut. I can deal with a person like that. Have you run into a flat earther in the wild yet?

No. But I have run into people who probably read Infowars.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Oh, and as someone who should have majored in biology, Creationists royally piss me off.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Oh, and as someone who should have majored in biology, Creationists royally piss me off.

I think you should call all of these people "anti-science people".
Since everything that was named here lately are just variations of what is basically the same group/mindset.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I think you should call all of these people "anti-science people".
Since everything that was named here lately are just variations of what is basically the same group/mindset.

Yeah. I don't like that.

There are some of those on the left, too, unfortunately. They make me just as angry.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah. I don't like that.

There are some of those on the left, too, unfortunately. They make me just as angry.

Left and right are today pretty fluid categories, especially once you go openly into "anti-establishment stuff".
Actually my far left and far right often vote together on certain things. This is exactly why they put them to seat right next to each other in the parliament. Therefore in my book this is all kinda subjective in modern times.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Left and right are today pretty fluid categories, especially once you go openly into "anti-establishment stuff".
Actually my far left and far right often vote together on certain things. This is exactly why they put them to seat right next to each other in the parliament. Therefore in my book this is all kinda subjective in modern times.

In the US people like that are often limited in visibility because of the way the electoral system work (as well as the personal beliefs of the people in question), but I have met people who have issues with science because it's a "white, male construct." Some people might not know they are out there, but they are. It's frequent within specific subcurrents of the radical left.