Random Politics Thread

[Virtual ghost]

Damn but the doomers are out in force this weekend.

You gonna sing the doom song now?

Show some empathy to the guy. He lives in large US city and in the case of mushroom clouds he is one of the first to go.
In the case that Putin did what he said he would do he would already be gone.

Not everyone has military experience that trains you for this.

 

[The Cat]

Show some empathy to the guy. He lives in large US city and in the case of mushroom clouds he is one of the first to go.
In the case that Putin did what he said he would do he would already be gone.

Not everyone has military experience that trains you for this.

I reference not merely one guy. Not even just multiple guys here. I know you've seen how many more people than this little on life support corner of the interwebs are freaking on the doom train. Besides. Fear is a perfectly natural reaction to something. Doomerism is not. Doomerism does nothing to foster empathy, nor help quell fear, or even do a damn thing to get out ahead of something. It's throwing down arms and surrendering to the enemy. It's not just accepting defeat. It's embracing it and carying water for hindsight ahead of time. Empathy is had for everyone who must suffer; but part of that empathy is speaking up against doomerism, Because that helps nothing and no one. Lots of us live in big cities. And even those that don't dont have a get out of hell free card. The only way out is through, and the only way through is to not give into despair and doomerism. No one wants to die in war or a disaster, but giving into doomerism is a sure fire way of increasing your odds of doing just that. And theres a bit of difference between empathy and apathy. Apathy doesnt care what happens to people if they give up. Empathy does and tells a given up fighter to get back into the fight. So if anyone here is mired up to their neck in despair and embracing doom. There are helping hands availible to help you pull yourself out and get back into the fight. Otherwise all your doing is letting someone else's hindsight convince you to cut your own throat before the meal lest you choke on dessert.

Doomerism is accelerationism's low energy brother who pretends its not up to anything despite throwing rocks at all the other children every time their back is turned.

Regarding one person specifically. I personally quite like them, and I find much of what they share relatable. Once someone did me a good turn when I was being drown in some fear and despair when I was in the military. You can fight fear and doom, you can fight it with getting angry, you can fight it with humor, you can fight it with turning it into something constructive. But you've got to fight it or it will destroy you. You deserve better than feeling hopeless and defeated.

 

[The Cat]

We're all always one foot in war and the grave and one on the banana peel. Military folk and intelligence backgrounds know this. It's always been almost midnight for well over 60 years now. Our focus was merely pulled away from it so we could all be better consumers and functional working members of our societies. The only real difference is thanks to the internet and the human condition of being blessedly unable to keep our mouths shut about anything and everything that upsets/scares us...is that now everyone has just enough light in the dark to start seeing all the unclear shapes in the room turn into monsters. Sadly there is such a thing as monsters; most of them are institutions; and most of the time most people are completely oblivious to how close they pass to death at the hands of those institutions as you can see spins our heads when we are made aware of it. But its not new, its never not always been there. You've made it through far closer brushes with death than what you're seeing on the news at any given time. Its one of the elephants in the room we're not supposed to pay attention to. Fear sucks and its overwhelming, you will feel it gnaw you to the bone. But you have to fight your fear or you can never master if you let it devour you. The worst thing someone can do to someone who's being consumed by fear, doubt and doom, is to not help them find the fight within and get back up off the mat and get your hands back up to block the blows from the real opponent you're fighting.

 

[Red Herring]

We're all always one foot in war and the grave and one on the banana peel. Military folk and intelligence backgrounds know this. It's always been almost midnight for well over 60 years now. Our focus was merely pulled away from it so we could all be better consumers and functional working members of our societies. The only real difference is thanks to the internet and the human condition of being blessedly unable to keep our mouths shut about anything and everything that upsets/scares us...is that now everyone has just enough light in the dark to start seeing all the unclear shapes in the room turn into monsters. Sadly there is such a thing as monsters; most of them are institutions; and most of the time most people are completely oblivious to how close they pass to death at the hands of those institutions as you can see spins our heads when we are made aware of it. But its not new, its never not always been there. You've made it through far closer brushes with death than what you're seeing on the news at any given time. Its one of the elephants in the room we're not supposed to pay attention to. Fear sucks and its overwhelming, you will feel it gnaw you to the bone. But you have to fight your fear or you can never master if you let it devour you. The worst thing someone can do to someone who's being consumed by fear, doubt and doom, is to not help them find the fight within and get back up off the mat and get your hands back up to block the blows from the real opponent you're fighting.

I talked about this with my husband only yesterday. Ironically we have the knowledge and technology to defeat hunger and probably most deseases. The greatest challenges humanity is facing these days - climate change, authoritarianism, nuclear war (or just war in general), AI, pandemics, economic inequality, anti-intellectualism and anti-science sentiments as well as the general feelings-over-facts trend that comes when a democratization and expansion of discourse meets economic, social and political inequality - are all the consequences of human actions. I agree with Yuval Noah Harari that if humans created someting humans can dismantle it (which is both a hope-inspiring and terrifying thought).

I still see the overall journey of the species as positive and set my hopes on the nerds, the do-gooders and the remains of the enlightenment. What scares me and has me worried about humanity is how short-sighted, egotistical, small-minded, stupid and un-educated we as a species still are as a whole. I sometimes think the average human being is a pretty clueless creature trying to make it to next lunch that doesn't give a hoot about the fate of their society much less the species or the planet.

No, I am not arguing against democracy, I am making the point that democracy requires a lot of education, goodwill and effort to work in the long run. Otherwise it's like letting a toddler drive a racecar. We really need to up our efforts in that regard. I am not going to throw in the towel because I have two kids and want them to grow up in a world where they can prosper and fulfill their human potential. But I do worry these days, more than I ever have in the last four decades ... not neccessarily about nuclear war but about humanity shooting itself in the foot ... or the head.

The optimist in me hopes this is just growth pains and the usual crisis before a flowering time that we have gone through again and again throughout history.

 

[The Cat]

I talked about this with my husband only yesterday. Ironically we have the knowledge and technology to defeat hunger and probably most deseases. The greatest challenges humanity is facing these days - climate change, authoritarianism, nuclear war (or just war in general), AI, pandemics, economic inequality, anti-intellectualism and anti-science sentiments as well as the general feelings-over-facts trend that comes when a democratization and expansion of discourse meets economic, social and political inequality - are all the consequences of human actions. I agree with Yuval Noah Harari that if humans created someting humans can dismantle it (which is both a hope-inspiring and terrifying thought).

I still see the overall journey of the species as positive and set my hopes on the nerds, the do-gooders and the remains of the enlightenment. What scares me and has me worried about humanity is how short-sighted, egotistical, small-minded, stupid and un-educated we as a species still are as a whole. I sometimes think the average human being is a pretty clueless creature trying to make it to next lunch that doesn't give a hoot about the fate of their society much less the species or the planet.

No, I am not arguing against democracy, I am making the point that democracy requires a lot of education, goodwill and effort to work in the long run. Otherwise it's like letting a toddler drive a racecar. We really need to up our efforts in that regard. I am not going to throw in the towel because I have two kids and want them to grow up in a world where they can prosper and fulfill their human potential. But I do worry these days, more than I ever have in the last four decades ... not neccessarily about nuclear war but about humanity shooting itself in the foot ... or the head.

The optimist in me hopes this is just growth pains and the usual crisis before a flowering time that we have gone through again and again throughout history.

This^ 100%

 

[Virtual ghost]

Regarding one person specifically. I personally quite like them, and I find much of what they share relatable. Once someone did me a good turn when I was being drown in some fear and despair when I was in the military. You can fight fear and doom, you can fight it with getting angry, you can fight it with humor, you can fight it with turning it into something constructive. But you've got to fight it or it will destroy you. You deserve better than feeling hopeless and defeated.

​

That was exactly my point, some people don't have that military training that prepares you for these kinda of situations. You have the training and I grew up in a war zone under airstrike alerts. Therefore for these reason you and I can never really be civilians in the standard meaning of the term. However some people just don't have the mental preparation for the current mood of things that are on the table. After all there is a reason why civilians are openly regarded as "vulnerable" in dangerous situations.


Just saying.

 

[The Cat]

That was exactly my point, some people don't have that military training that prepares you for these kinda of situations. You have the training and I grew up in a war zone under airstrike alerts. Therefore for these reason you and I can never really be civilians in the standard meaning of the term. However some people just don't have the mental preparation for the current mood of things that are on the table. After all there is a reason why civilians are openly regarded as "vulnerable" in dangerous situations.


Just saying.

You're right, I just don't know how to help with that, other than to offer some of the mental training that was imparted to me. I do appreciate you furthering the conversation because I default to ripping the bandaid off as quickly and efficiently as possible and that doesn't aways translate at first the way it's intended. Especially without any phyisical cues and body language or tone that is in the forefront. Just words on a page. It's sometimes tough for me to rember the "soft touch" after a lifetime of being in the rough shit. Thank you for reminding me that it is necessary. I hope everyone who is struggling with fear right now can lift themselves out of the mire.

 

[ceecee]

I talked about this with my husband only yesterday. Ironically we have the knowledge and technology to defeat hunger and probably most deseases. The greatest challenges humanity is facing these days - climate change, authoritarianism, nuclear war (or just war in general), AI, pandemics, economic inequality, anti-intellectualism and anti-science sentiments as well as the general feelings-over-facts trend that comes when a democratization and expansion of discourse meets economic, social and political inequality - are all the consequences of human actions. I agree with Yuval Noah Harari that if humans created someting humans can dismantle it (which is both a hope-inspiring and terrifying thought).

I still see the overall journey of the species as positive and set my hopes on the nerds, the do-gooders and the remains of the enlightenment. What scares me and has me worried about humanity is how short-sighted, egotistical, small-minded, stupid and un-educated we as a species still are as a whole. I sometimes think the average human being is a pretty clueless creature trying to make it to next lunch that doesn't give a hoot about the fate of their society much less the species or the planet.

No, I am not arguing against democracy, I am making the point that democracy requires a lot of education, goodwill and effort to work in the long run. Otherwise it's like letting a toddler drive a racecar. We really need to up our efforts in that regard. I am not going to throw in the towel because I have two kids and want them to grow up in a world where they can prosper and fulfill their human potential. But I do worry these days, more than I ever have in the last four decades ... not neccessarily about nuclear war but about humanity shooting itself in the foot ... or the head.

The optimist in me hopes this is just growth pains and the usual crisis before a flowering time that we have gone through again and again throughout history.

Yes. Chip away at that education, goodwill and effort and this is the world you end up with. I'm not at all concerned about some kind of nuclear war or large scale thing because atrocities never happen that way. I hope people can rise to the occasion to take back from the authoritarian, anti-intellectual, anti-science, hate spreading, celebrating the advances made by ultra-nationalist, right wing faction because the alternative isn't something people can comprehend. At least in the US.

 

[SensEye]

How are we gonna pay the price later? Are people gonna stop trading with the largest consumer market on planet earth b/c we stopped throwing $$ at Ukr?

I'll just address this point for clarity. It's not that there will be any direct economic price for the US if Ukraine falls. But I believe Putin will be emboldened to grab for more and maybe attack a NATO country (like Poland) once he sees that NATO is either a toothless or very reluctant tiger.

Now maybe you are a full Fortress America type, sort of like Trump or other MAGA supporters. You know, the "Fuck NATO, those bastards don't pony up enough of their GDP as agreed, so they can go to hell if one of their members gets invaded, America don't care no more." American pulling out of NATO would be a sea change, but I can see it happening under Trump or equivalent.

Also, as I mentioned, I think if Russia can take Ukraine, it's a green light for China to take Taiwan. As I understand it, America has outsourced much of their semiconductor manufacturing to Taiwan, but I am not clear if that would motivate America to take a stronger opposition on that front, or just negotiate a new trade agreement with China once they own Taiwan. America will be negotiating from a position of weakness in that situation. Probably won't help US economic situation and trade imbalance with China. That might cost more in the long run than Ukraine war aid.

And if America actually wants to go to war with China over Taiwan, that's probably WWIII and all that involves, so very costly in every conceivable way.

While it's true Ukraine needs quite a few more billions of support, it still might be a bargain if Russia fails to gain any territory and as a consequence, China thinks twice about their ambitions regarding Taiwan. Admittedly, China may do it's own thing regardless of the Ukraine outcome.

Anyways, that's my gist of my argument. Did that Fram oil filter commercial run in the USA? You know the one with the oil change guy saying, you can either pay me now (for an oil change) or pay me later (for an engine replacement). I'm thinking along those lines with regards to Ukraine.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

I don't think Russia decides to test NATO's article 5 should they win in Ukr.

W/ regards to Taiwan long term, I would expect China to try and co-opt through legal means as they did in HK, but that failing they may take a more aggressive route.

We've got TSMC plants being built in the US and the designs of the chip architecture occur here. So we've got the intellectual property, just need to add the manufacturing capacity. We also have other chip fabs being built. One of the few things I think Biden did correctly was the CHIPS act though I'm sure there are parts of it I would detest if I went through the whole text of it.

If I was in China's shoes and had committed to taking Taiwan (which no one can know whether they actually plan to follow through on at this point) I would plan or try to do so before Ukr is concluded. You don't want to try to take w/ America's undivided attention on you.

As such I don't think the fall of Ukr would be some sort of go signal for them. Sure it would be one more symbol of the crumbling Global American Empire, but strategically the conclusion of the UKR conflict can only hurt them with regards to Taiwan.

Should the US and China go at it, I don't see WWIII happening as you envision, China's nuclear capacity is such that it loses any exchange that should occur. I do see what could be a very costly conventional war for the US. The Sad fact is that their anti ship missiles are cheaper than our boats, and should they manufacture enough of those missiles they can send enough of them so that they saturate our missile defense systems and some missiles get through. Given the range of their IRBM's the US has already had to develop the capacity for a stealth drone to refuel our planes just to get them to the battle space given how far away the Carriers would need to position themselves to limit the threat from Chinese anti ship missiles.

To that effect here's the boeing MQ-25 stealth drone refueling platform we've developed.

Our newer carriers now have the capacity to launch lighter aircraft like this b/c of the development of electromagnetic launch systems (replacing steam versions) on our newer carriers.

If they manage to sink one of our carriers that's 6000 sailors dead (two 9/11's for those keeping track).

Given all this I'm not confident we could win a conflict with china over Taiwan. I'm not confident we would lose either, but the fact that I don't know either way is troublesome.

Now we could embargo the strait of Malacca keeping any fuel from the Middle East from getting to China and shut them down in about 6 months (russia's oil export capacity isn't such that it could fill the gap over land through siberia) but I don't think the US could stomach the global consequences of the reaction to deciding that free trade isn't free on the high seas anymore. More to the point the US and Chinese economy are still so deeply entangled that I don't think we would be willing to suffer the domestic consequences of shutting down China.

Now should we get to a point where we can survive domestically without the current high level of Chinese trade, that calculus may change. But as it stands now I don't think either country can afford for a taiwan altercation to grow beyond a regional conventional conflict.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

And interesting story I'm following is how the Hamas-Israel conflict is breaking down the American left. There is currently a spat between the hard left palistinian supporters and moderate who are more in line with Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711568374491160675

 

[The Cat]

 

[SensEye]

I don't think Russia decides to test NATO's article 5 should they win in Ukr.

Well, we'll see. I think a Ukraine loss will bode poorly for the future, you don't really think it is much of a big deal.

I guess I would also like to see the good guys win for a change. It seems to be one loss after another on that front.

Communists won in Vietnam. Taliban won in Afghanistan. China took over Hong Kong (not really a war but still, big loss of freedom). Conflict everywhere in Africa.

Ukraine is inarguably the good guy in this war against Russian expansionism. I would like to see them successfully resist just for a small ray of sunshine in the world. Maybe, they still can. Assuming the tide towards America turning their backs on Ukr continues, there is some hope EU will step up, but I am by no means confident of that. Without the west, Ukraine will fall and be ruled by despotic authoritarian regime. Another win for the dark side.

This Israel conflict is the best thing to happen for Putin short of a Trump re-election. America is totally re-focused on Israel right now. If I thought Putin was clever enough to scheme with Iran to instigate all this, I would actually have to give him credit from a tactical perspective.

 

[DiscoBiscuit]

Well, we'll see. I think a Ukraine loss will bode poorly for the future, you don't really think it is much of a big deal.

I guess I would also like to see the good guys win for a change. It seems to be one loss after another on that front.

Communists won in Vietnam. Taliban won in Afghanistan. China took over Hong Kong (not really a war but still, big loss of freedom). Conflict everywhere in Africa.

Ukraine is inarguably the good guy in this war against Russian expansionism. I would like to see them successfully resist just for a small ray of sunshine in the world. Maybe, they still can. Assuming the tide towards America turning their backs on Ukr continues, there is some hope EU will step up, but I am by no means confident of that. Without the west, Ukraine will fall and be ruled by despotic authoritarian regime. Another win for the dark side.

This Israel conflict is the best thing to happen for Putin short of a Trump re-election. America is totally re-focused on Israel right now. If I thought Putin was clever enough to scheme with Iran to instigate all this, I would actually have to give him credit from a tactical perspective.

I think securing the coal reserves in the Donbas and the Heavy industry in Donetsk and a secure border protecting the Crimea allowing them port access to the black sea and thus shipping to the Med and thus the world will probably be enough. A good portion of Ukr's wheat is grown in the Donbas (Zaporitizia oblast or however you spell it) and the Dontesk oblast so that's also a net gain. The big deal is that the black sea doesn't get so frozen over that you can't ship in the winter. I think Russia would be OK with the borders as they sit at the frontlines right now as they look broadly similar to last april when they were ready to negotiate a ceasefire. The only difference was that then they had the kharkiv region which is materially less important in them maintaining their access to the black sea and crimea.

Although I always cringe at good guy bad guy framing, Ukr is undeniably the truly aggrieved party in that conflict, and it would be nice for them to win.

I think we will try to fund both wars, but to be honest I'm not sure we can swing it. Ukraine is a much larger war covering more ground where we support a much less militarily developed country requiring more supplies to support. Not to mention they are fighting a country with a massive military industrial capacity and a huge reserve of dated but still useful stuff.

Israel is going to be fighting over 144 sq miles on their southern edge and they already have tanks and planes etc. and are fighting a force that doesn't. Not to mention that politically Israel is a much more forceful component in US politics.

What Ukraine has going in its favor is that I think there's more money to be made there in terms of shutting Gazprom out of europe. But you can't make that money if you don't get re-elected and the political ramifications of snubbing Israel would be immediate.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

New consensus house map for 2024


Based on this the house will basically be decided in wider NYC area, North Carolina and the South west.

 

[Virtual ghost]

This Israel conflict is the best thing to happen for Putin short of a Trump re-election. America is totally re-focused on Israel right now. If I thought Putin was clever enough to scheme with Iran to instigate all this, I would actually have to give him credit from a tactical perspective.

For quite some time he is actually looking for the place where to start some kinda of separate front with the west. In order to spreads the west thin. He tried to ignite things in some places but it didn't really work until now. The only problem is that this is unlikely to last if it doesn't become regional conflict. Which would probably spread Russia too thin. What means that China would finally need to show it's true colors, what is something that they are trying to avoid for many years.


So for me it isn't clear that this is the act of a genius. The only benefit is that some Arab countries are probably moving away from west due to this. But that doesn't really solve Russia's main problem that is in Ukraine.

 

[Virtual ghost]

What would McHenry do as speaker?

 

[ceecee]

What would McHenry do as speaker?

If they were smart they would just keep him until the election. But they're not so they've nominated a KKK apologist. Incredibly on brand for the GOP.

House speaker contender Steve Scalise reportedly called himself ‘David Duke without the baggage’

Republican, who some say could replace Kevin McCarthy, has had reported associations with ex-Ku Klux Klan grand wizard

www.theguardian.com

 

[The Cat]