• You are currently viewing our forum as a guest, which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community, you will have access to additional post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), view blogs, respond to polls, upload content, and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free, so please join our community today! Just click here to register. You should turn your Ad Blocker off for this site or certain features may not work properly. If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us by clicking here.

Random political thought thread.

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
Ideally he would be charged with sedition, it's very clear what that is and what it isn't. Every member of congress that aided him wound be removed under the 14th Amendment and never able to hold office again. But again, none of this is going to happen.

I agree that some big punishment are unlikely. However I was wondering what could come out of this based purely on rules. Since just maybe they will go with this over some reason we can't quite see.
 

The Cat

I'm from Outer Space...Dont Overthink it.
Staff member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
18,119
I agree that some big punishment are unlikely. However I was wondering what could come out of this based purely on rules. Since just maybe they will go with this over some reason we can't quite see.

The rules would have to be applied evenly across the board. Hell the biggest reason Trump wants to be a politician is because historically, in America, the rules don't apply to them the same way they do with civilians or soldiers. The "Sanctity" of the "Office of the President." will be framed as the real thing that needs to be preserved. Which essentially is just whittled down by the status quo to the 11th Commandment: "It can't happen here."
 

Red Herring

Superwoman
Joined
Jun 9, 2010
Messages
7,033
MBTI Type
INTP
Enneagram
5w4
Instinctual Variant
sp/sx
The rules would have to be applied evenly across the board. Hell the biggest reason Trump wants to be a politician is because historically, in America, the rules don't apply to them the same way they do with civilians or soldiers. The "Sanctity" of the "Office of the President." will be framed as the real thing that needs to be preserved. Which essentially is just whittled down by the status quo to the 11th Commandment: "It can't happen here."
Just a wild idea, but why not deliberately take away some of that sanctity and shift a bit more towards a parliamentary democracy?
Some of the severe problems France has have to do with it being very much a presidential democracy with too much power concentrated in the hands of the president. It looks like they might gently change some of that.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
Speaking of France, they do have one good thing compared to US. Presidential elections aren't on the same day as the ones for parliament. Therefore first you choose a president and then once the result is known you have a chance to determine how much support the person will in the parliament. What greatly milds down the gridlocks that are quite common in US. Which are wasted time for the most part and therefore a bad practice.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
Btw when you take 2020 presidential map and add the shift in generic ballot since then you will get this.
What in the current climate looks as realistic expectation.




 

DiscoBiscuit

Meat Tornado
Joined
Apr 13, 2009
Messages
14,249
Enneagram
8w9
Thats what happens when your policies incentivize people to move from blue cities to Red States. It just reflect the fact that more people want to live elsewhere than they did in 2010.

Also lets look at what states were undercounted and overcounted in the census. 2020 Census Undercounts in Six States, Overcounts in Eight

According to the PES, which states had undercounts?​

  • Arkansas (-5.04),
  • Florida (-3.48),
  • Illinois (-1.97),
  • Mississippi (-4.11),
  • Tennessee (-4.78), and
  • Texas (-1.92).

And overcounts?​

  • Delaware (+5.45),
  • Hawaii (+6.79),
  • Massachusetts (+2.24),
  • Minnesota (+3.84),
  • New York (+3.44),
  • Ohio (+1.49),
  • Rhode Island (+5.05), and
  • Utah (+2.59)

Florida lost out on gaining a second new Congressional Rep b/c of this. New York held onto a Rep they shouldn't have because of this. Just look at the Political leanings of the states that were over vs undercounted.

November is going to be a slaughter. I just paid $100 to fill up my tank for the first time in my life.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
Yeah, it looks like blue implosion in November.

There was a special election for the free house seat in southern Texas this week. In 2020 it was 13.6 points blue, while now it was 7.7 points into red. What is over 20 point swing.
Even if you half the swing that is still A LOT.
 

DiscoBiscuit

Meat Tornado
Joined
Apr 13, 2009
Messages
14,249
Enneagram
8w9
Yeah, it looks like blue implosion in November.

There was a special election for the free house seat in southern Texas this week. In 2020 it was 13.6 points blue, while now it was 7.7 points into red. What is over 20 point swing.
Even if you half the swing that is still A LOT.
That was for a vacant Dem seat, but the congressional district changing b/c of redistricting and the new district will be significantly more left leaning so she isnt liable to stay in congress. But the fact that there was that much of a shift serves as a huge canary in the coalmine especially with an increasingly hispanic demographic one party has traditionally relied upon for electoral success.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
That was for a vacant Dem seat, but the congressional district changing b/c of redistricting and the new district will be significantly more left leaning so she isnt liable to stay in congress. But the fact that there was that much of a shift serves as a huge canary in the coalmine especially with an increasingly hispanic demographic one party has traditionally relied upon for electoral success.

True, but with such a big shift there will evidently be some serious flipping in that part of the state in November. This is too big shift that surrounding area would stays as it is.

From what I understand southern Texas has plenty of working class Hispanics and there are big shifts in that demographic. What this result basically shows pretty clearly. The entire western left went too far away from bread and butter working class issues and that will cost them since that was the skeleton of the base and their image. Without that you basically have random talking points.
 

DiscoBiscuit

Meat Tornado
Joined
Apr 13, 2009
Messages
14,249
Enneagram
8w9
True, but with such a big shift there will evidently be some serious flipping in that part of the state in November. This is too big shift that surrounding area would stays as it is.

From what I understand southern Texas has plenty of working class Hispanics and there are big shifts in that demographic. What this result basically shows pretty clearly. The entire western left went too far away from bread and butter working class issues and that will cost them since that was the skeleton of the base and their image. Without that you basically have random talking points.
The biggest question here is how one defines the Hispanic voting bloc going forward. Will we ethnically break them down and start talking about campaigns targeting hondurans vs mexicans. I think not. They'll be treated as a monolith politically if not academically. I'm also not sure they end up staying with one party or the other. I wouldnt be surprised if they assimilate and adopt the general voting patterns of where they live. Which is to say I wouldn't be surprised if they turned into a swing vote nationally. They're too big a voting bloc for either party to completely ignore. I think the immigration question matters much less to them than the media would have you think. I think their cultural tendencies make democrats' venture into identity politics particularly costly.
 

Virtual ghost

Complex paradigm
Joined
Jun 6, 2008
Messages
17,509
Speaking of latino shifts, it seems that the race for the governor of New Mexico is basically a toss up. Rather than "likely blue" that what would be expected of such state.
 

The Cat

I'm from Outer Space...Dont Overthink it.
Staff member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
18,119
the beacons are being lit, the dogs of war are baying for blood. Lines are drawn and curses are cast. The engines are begining to steam. the fascists are coming the fascists are coming. One if by land two if by sea, three if they're dog whistling in ads on tv.
29ce0d1f-44f3-411d-ace0-c19c3bbcd58b.gif
 
Top