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Cold war 2.0

Virtual ghost

Virtual ghost

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‘Croatia’s Trump’ wins first round of presidential election but now faces runoff

Milanovic leads Croatian presidential race


Objectively speaking this was a landslide, 30 point gap between two main candidates. Literally the whole map is red, all 21 regions. It was expected that he will win the first round but the gap ended up being about 2.5 times larger than expected. However since turnout was just 46% there could be potential surprises in the run off, which is in two weeks.



South Korea seeks arrest of impeached president Yoon

Russia: Man accused of organizing LGBTQ+ tours dies in jail

Kurdish rebel leader reportedly suggests he’s open to ending insurgency

‘Taiwan unprepared for war,’ says soldier who fought in Ukraine
 
Red Herring

Red Herring

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Coalition negotiations in Austria just failed, the center right, center left and centrist Neos didn't manage to reach an angreement to keep the far-right FPÖ out of government. Similar to the current situation in Germany where the centrist-libertarian FDP dropped out of the governmet coalition because of different positions on budget and economic policy the negotiations in Austria seem to have failed because the Neos wanted more market-friendly reforms than the center-right and center-left were willing to give them.

In other news, Christian Lindner of the FDP has demanded that the CDU publically declare that they want to cooperate with them and only them after the elections and stop talking about a coalition with the SPD or Greens. Meanwhile in real life, this is what the current simulations for possible outcomes suggest:

​

Who could form the next government coalition?​


CoalitionLikelihood of majorityOut of 1.000 simulations
Union + SPD + Greensvery high>995
Union + SPDvery high936
Union + Greenshigh777
Union + SPD + BSWmedium593
Union + BSWvery low41
Union + SPD + FDPvery low29
Union aloneverly low12
AfD + BSWnear zero<5
Union + FDPnear zero<5
SPD + Greensnear zero<5


source: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/umfragen-bundestagswahl-neuwahl-wahltrend

Footnote #1: This shows the likelihood of those combinations having a mathematical majority, not the likelihood of them actually wanting or even reaching a coalition agreement.
Footnote #2: "Union" refers to the CDU and CSU together since they are legally both one party and two parties at once, depending on the context.


Now, you'll notice that a CDU + AfD coalition is not even included here even though they could technically reach 50% together. I assume that is because so far the CDU has categorically refused to contemplate any cooperation with them (though de facto there is some low level cooperation on a communal level in some rural areas when it comes to things such as road maintenance, etc). Their official policy is that all democratic parties should be able to cooperate with each other but that they will not cooperate with anti-democratic forces. According to them that covers both the AfD and the Linke (far-left). Ironically, they have not officially excluded the BSW, to my knowledge, even though the Linke these days tends to be more cooperative and less extremist than the BSW.
 
Virtual ghost

Virtual ghost

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Red Herring said:
Coalition negotiations in Austria just failed, the center right, center left and centrist Neos didn't manage to reach an angreement to keep the far-right FPÖ out of government. Similar to the current situation in Germany where the centrist-libertarian FDP dropped out of the governmet coalition because of different positions on budget and economic policy the negotiations in Austria seem to have failed because the Neos wanted more market-friendly reforms than the center-right and center-left were willing to give them.
Click to expand...


Austria’s coalition talks in disarray as parties fail to unite against far right
Even without the support of NEOS, the SPÖ and ÖVP could continue negotiations on their own and form a two-way coalition, as the two parties together hold 92 of the 183 seats in the lower house of Austria’s parliament — a wafer-thin majority of just one seat.
Click to expand...

Technically speaking the game is not over.
Plus there are still greens in there as a back up (which just governed with center right for years).
 
Red Herring

Red Herring

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The current cover of Der Spiegel:

"Hands off our democracy, Mister Musk!"
- Robert Habeck on the US billionaire, his own mistakes and why today he would choose military service"

der-spiegel-00002-2025-2110223.jpg
 

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