Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

Transition of power is over.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

French election: Your guide to the final round of voting

Today is the big day that will define quite a few things.
Especially since this could have spillovers all over the developed world. Even if the projections are true and the party of Le Pen gets only about 40% of seats that will make them impossible to overlook. What is very strong platform for her own top job candidacy in 2027.



Orbán alliance gains enough support to be EU Parliament group

The man did it and now he has his own EU group in the EU parliament. However I really doubt that this is the maximum since now the group is formally there and that means that others will be joining with time. After all the vision is that all hard right parties are eventually merged inside this new group.



Can Nigel Farage ride the wave of right-wing populism?

Given the general trends in Europe and US it is kinda safe bet that he can. Especially if there is red wave in the US in November. Since that would give them the push needed to finish off crippled conservatives and thus he can replace them as party. Especially since that is pretty much the dynamic of how it happened in US. What means that there will probably be attempts to replicate that.



In Europe hard right is evidently expanding it's influence. However where all of that leads remains to be seen.

 

[Falcarius]

First of all just if something is awkward relationship that doesn't mean that it can't be even more awkward. If Le Pen indeed takes over France, if Germany continues to grow it's hard right, if Meloni gets another mandate (what she probably will), Netherlands just went hard right, Orban, PiS could return to power in Poland ....... etc. etc. Therefore I am sorry but I just don't see Labor fitting into that picture and that means tensions, weak trade etc. What will have very direct implications in how Labor government will be doing in fixing current mess that exists in UK. As you say UK is awkward even next to maintream European politics. Therefore if the trends of radicalization continue across the continent the relationship will surely become even more awkward (or none existant).


Trump had decent relationship with UK during his first mandate since the Conservatives were in power. However I am not really sure that this would be the case with Labor. Especially if his second mandate will be more radical than the first. Also it is quite possble that he would start to promate his buddy Farage, since that should spread his cloud. However that almost surely wouldn't sit well with Labor. Plus Canada is also looking to turn right from what I realize.


There are plenty of elements where all of this could get "complcaited" pretty quickly. However this doesn't mean that you wouldn't have similar scenarios in the case of Conservative victory. The world right now is simply unstable.

When one is PM they have to work with people they don't agree with.

For whatever reason Trump really likes the UK compared to Obama and Biden. There is no way getting away from UK very awkward relationship with post-WWII Germany and France who are pretty much the most influential and powerful countries in Europe, it was ultimately why Brexit happened. The UK having new PM will allow a reset in relations. Macron and Scholz both probably have a few years left and are pretty establishment figures so it shouldn't be too difficult working with them in short term. Going forward, Macron is now a lame duck president so is badly weakened, so he won't be able to do anything wich impacts on UK as NR will occupy his time. If France elected a National Rally president and NR had it's way it would flip from working in tandem Germany to working much more closely with UK. The NR literally wants an alliance with UK. The NR main policies such as stronger immigration, security, protectionism, Euroskepticism are not too alien to where UK is moving in general. The main problem Starmer would have is over NATO and Russia. Italian politics is so fragile that I doubt anyone cares much about them: their PM have historically struggled to last more than a few years. Who knows what Germany will do when in its next federal election as a few years is a long time in politics.

The closest countries to UK politically are the Scandinavian countries, Ireland, Switzerland, Netherlands, and Belgium. It is the interests of these countries which the UK will seek to influence irrespective of who is PM. So it is more worrying if the Netherlands go Far-Right and Ireland elect Sinn Fein to be Taoiseach than whatever Germany, France, and Italy do.

 

[Virtual ghost]

When one is PM they have to work with people they don't agree with.

For whatever reason Trump really likes the UK compared to Obama and Biden. There is no way getting away from UK very awkward relationship with post-WWII Germany and France who are pretty much the most influential and powerful countries in Europe, it was ultimately why Brexit happened. The UK having new PM will allow a reset in relations. Macron and Scholz both probably have a few years left and are pretty establishment figures so it shouldn't be too difficult working with them in short term. Going forward, Macron is now a lame duck president so is badly weakened, so he won't be able to do anything wich impacts on UK as NR will occupy his time. If France elected a National Rally president and NR had it's way it would flip from working in tandem Germany to working much more closely with UK. The NR literally wants an alliance with UK. The NR main policies such as stronger immigration, security, protectionism, Euroskepticism are not too alien to where UK is moving in general. The main problem Starmer would have is over NATO and Russia. Italian politics is so fragile that I doubt anyone cares much about them: their PM have historically struggled to last more than a few years. Who knows what Germany will do when in its next federal election as a few years is a long time in politics.

The closest countries to UK politically are the Scandinavian countries, Ireland, Switzerland, Netherlands, and Belgium. It is the interests of these countries which the UK will seek to influence irrespective of who is PM. So it is more worrying if the Netherlands go Far-Right and Ireland elect Sinn Fein to be Taoiseach than whatever Germany, France, and Italy do.

Since you evidently didn't get the memo: Europe has more than enough of it's own problems to really care about what UK wants. That is almost surely the most correct interpretation of all the facts that you have said. The family is in deep argument and no one really cares about the sales person at the door (what is UK at this point).



Btw Scholz doesn't have a few years left, Germany is going to the polls next year and there he will almost surely be defeated by center right. However if in a few months far right takes the regions in ex eastern Germany it is very likely that he would be forced to call snap elections. Something similar might even happen to Macron since 3/4 of the country doesn't support him. What is actually likely to be increased even further as he will probably get hanged and ungovernable parliament.


On the other hand Farage has openly said that he is going after Labor and that means that Le Pen should side with him(if she even cares about UK). What is because these two are natural allies, not her and Labor. She is also negotiating about joining Orban's new group and that means that labor is completely out of the picture. After all her main opponent in today's elections is French version of Labor. While if UK Labor and Le Pen indeed become buddies you can kinda forget any kind of a deals with EU. Since that would completely piss off the establishment. Therefore if there will be any energy left for EU foreign policy that will almost surely go towards Ukraine and eastern neighborhood in general (or towards Africa). Since that is where are real drama and real potential gains.


EDIT: at best you will be given some mediocre trade deal and peace in Northern Ireland (for the sake of stability). However these are too turbulent times that someone would have the appetite for something in depth with UK.

 

[Virtual ghost]

European Council



This is European council and it's current composition. The council is made out of 27 heads of states of EU. Also when you draw the bottom line this is in practice the most powerful body of EU. Since all major changes and ideas in the end ether start here or they are ended here. Therefore in a sense this is where real politics is made.


However what is interesting here is the pie chart. The color of slices defines the political orientation of the country's leader. While the size of the slice marks the percentage of the population in overall EU population.

So colors mean:

Red - Social democrats
Yellow - Centrist liberals
Light blue - Center right
Dark blue - Hard right
Gray - independents, populists, outsides etc.

While other blocks don't have leaders in any member state.



However this is where story actually gets interesting. There is fresh government in Netherlands and parties to right of center made a coalition government. What means that the non partisan person will take over as consensus leader. What means that Netherlands is moving from centrist yellow to gray. Currently there is also government formation process in Belgium and there you should get hard right leader. What means moving of Belgium from yellow to dark blue.

As you can see France in current days is quite contested country and Macron is losing control over the country. First he lost EU elections and now his party is imploding in elections for parliament. Therefore in a few years the odds are that someone from his party wouldn't win elections for the top job. After all that entire party is basically Macron's one man show. What means that some other option will take over, especially since there is limit of two terms and new person has to step in. What in the end means that the centrists are left with Slovenia and Estonia. Which together have only 3.5 million people. Plus it is worth saying that in both of those countries polls are showing that the centrists would lose to center right if the vote is today.


So let's now focus on the red part of the pie, the social-democratic one. After everything that has happened in German politics over the last few years it is very safe to presume that the largest chunk of the pie will shift from social-democrats to center right. Right now that is quite safe bet to make. Another pretty large red chunk is Spain, however in Spain Social democrats don't really have a majority. Therefore they have minority government and they relay of Catalan separatists to provide them the majority. However some top courts have once again started to increase legal "pressures" towards the separatists. The increase that is quite substantial. Therefore now it is coming to question what exactly will happen to the government in Spain. Especially since parties to the right of center are up in the polls.


What in the end brings us to the pretty obvious conclusion: which is that culturally left parties are facing COMPLETE electoral implosion in the big picture. Not to mention that this will all be reflected on the local and regional levels. Every few months I say "prepare for the right wing EU" and all this is basically that statement but developed in more detail. What means that on the medium run liberal ideas are in serious problems when it comes to EU. While we can only guess what will be on the long run at this rate.

Few days after this post the process has started: The Netherlands was moved from yellow to gray. Since the none partisan candidate of center right and far right has taken over.

With time we will see if this will go all the way.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France election: Voting underway as far right bids for power

Just a few more hours to go and then comes election night, where we will see where all of this is going.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Probably not but large changes will almost surely happen.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Very high turnout (and that very rarely favors the right).

 

[Red Herring]

Very high turnout (and that very rarely favors the right).

Yes, even though the fact that 61% is the highest turnout in decades is itself pretty sad. We had 76.6% at the last election for the Bundestag and that was considered normal. The UK had 60% a few days ago and that was the lowest it had been in two decades whereas it had been 67.3% in 2019.

I think there is something seriously wrong in a democracy when less than two out of three people participate in its elections. The USA, which historically used to have much lower voter participation than Europe, has had its highest voter turnout in over a century during the 2020 presidential elections where it finally reached that 2/3 threshold.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Left heading for shock victory in French election — first estimates

Yeah, very high turn out can do something like that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yes, even though the fact that 61% is the highest turnout in decades is itself pretty sad. We had 76.6% at the last election for the Bundestag and that was considered normal. The UK had 60% a few days ago and that was the lowest it had been in two decades whereas it had been 67.3% in 2019.

I think there is something seriously wrong in a democracy when less than two out of three people participate in its elections. The USA, which historically used to have much lower voter participation than Europe, has had its highest voter turnout in over a century during the 2020 presidential elections where it finally reached that 2/3 threshold.

I agree that this is indication of problem(s). However as my last post suggests even this level managed to prevent what most see as the worst option. Since in my book above 50% is "acceptable". In other words for me EU elections were at something like only 21%, what is evidently way way too low. In that case you can truly argue that there is a problem. But if it is above 50, I can live with that. Even if healthy levels are indeed above 70%.

Some cultures just have the culture of none voting and/or their campaigns tend to be boring. After all first past the post can be very unstimulative when it comes to average voters. Since such system makes sure that there is no functional multi-party system that would fully represent the population.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France election results 2024: Who is winning across the country


These are the results that will be coming in over the election night.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The left celebrates.

 

[ceecee]

The left celebrates.

After weeks of - Le Pen/National Rally is going to win everything in a landslide!!

 

[Virtual ghost]

After weeks of - Le Pen/National Rally is going to win everything in a landslide!!

Actually the prediction was that they will be the biggest party and perhaps they have some kind of shoot to have a majority (probably with some smaller right wing parties). However as soon as I saw this high turnout I knew that all of this wouldn't really go as "planned".


I mean the center and the left created a common front of candidates, while center right it seems that is did visibly better than expected. What openly underminded Le Pen in rural areas. Plus on that came the turnout that is the highest in 40 years (since the media evidently did their job well). Also I would dare to say that some of the vibe surely spilled over from what happened in UK the other day.


Therefore when you put all of that together we have a "shock" result that we have. But this is indeed major defeat for the anti-system parties that have certain ties with Russia. However these two victories could really turn the tide for left in Europe.

 

[SensEye]

Interesting times. Looking forward to seeing how Le Pen actually governs if she gets control. I worry panicked centrists will move to the far left in a blocking move in round two. That far left consortium is way too close.

No shocks here, turned out just like I predicted. Lets see what kind of an economic mess the left creates.

 

[Virtual ghost]

No shocks here, turned out just like I predicted. Lets see what kind of an economic mess the left creates.

The coalition of left wing parties is just the largest block in parliament (and they are pretty far from 50% of seats). This isn't the system that revolves around 2 parties like in the English speaking world. In other words this outcome is significant since the far right not only that it didn't came first but all of this is a major setback in their talking points. In reality no one really won these elections, but next to what was in the cards that is still good enough.

Judging the numbers the leftists coalition and Macron's centrists will find some kind of formula how to govern the country. Since new snap elections can't be called for the next 365 days. I mean I doubt that all major parties will keep the parliament in current shape all the way until 2027.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France election results 2024: Who is winning across the country


These are the results that will be coming in over the election night.

Good chunk of the map is already known.

However on the map it can even be seen how Republicans overperformed. Towards many models they should have imploded and Le pen should have taken most of the countryside. While Republicans (blue) did take their share in the end. Plus due to first past the post they surely cost her many seats to the united Left-center front. Since they drained the votes.

In a sense they just did to Le pen what Farage did to the Tories other day. Drainage of votes, what in first pass the post system pretty quickly turns to different result.

In almost kinda morbid way this is actually starting to turn into something that looks a lot like current EU parliament. Where center left, center and center right will have a slim majority against the anti system parties. So with some compromise this could even be somewhat governable parliament.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Hungary: Could Peter Magyar bring a future without Orban?

Hungary — National parliament voting intention


While this is also getting pretty "interesting". The man has decided to challenge "the king" and he seem to be doing pretty well.
I mean this is basically the turning point when he should start to drain the voting base of Orban. Since the gap is closing pretty fast.