Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

I'll say. So much fearmongering in those Politico articles I had to do a double check of their bias ratings. My impression of Politico is that it is fairly centrist, but there was definitely a lot of left wing bias in those samples. It seems Politico is given a 'left-lean' bias these days.

The center/center-left need to stop doing a poor job of governing and then rely on painting their right of center opponents as boogie-men. It's pretty much the Democrats entire election strategy and it appears Macron is starting to use the same play book. Of course, it might be true, but if they would do a better job of governing, they would not empower these potential disruptors to the extent they have. Then again, perhaps disruption is required to get governance back on track.

That is exactly why I said that going over the line with scaring people will probably backfire. I mean Politico is still somewhat subtle next to what France 24 is doing. Which is the type of media that is evidently and directly involved with French public. However the truth is also that RN isn't just some right wing party. It is really the largest party of the most right wing block in Europe. Plus their roots are in 1940s. Therefore scaring people with this is kinda legit. The problem is that if your approach is too obvious then this can very easily backfire. Especially if you have very unpopular incumbent like Macron (the dude is 45 points under water in approval).

So in the end this could really be like US in 2016, where the media basically pushed people toward Trump. Especially since Macron and Hillary have evident likability problem in their personas and their policies. Therefore if you go too far the nation may decide to gamble with the wildcard. Since the people wouldn't trust in the media due to evident scare tactics.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK Labour candidate suspended after … betting he would lose

 

[The Cat]

So he went out a winner and a loser.

 

[Virtual ghost]

If this is true this is totally crazy. Although this is indeed the most natural and logical counter to infamous Stalinist strategy.

 

[Virtual ghost]

BREAKING: Bolivia: President Arce warns of 'irregular' military action

It looks like coup in progress.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Far right seizes France’s conservative heartlands


The transition is almost over: far right has 34% of the vote and conservatives have 7%. What in first past the post system makes it quite obvious who will win the countryside and rural areas. However that has pretty big implications on the long run. Especially when local/regional elections kick in.




Germany’s Scholz blasts EU for failure to do trade deals

In a sense this is basically why anti system parties are growing pretty much everywhere across the continent. This is basically the guy who politically defined himself as the protector of workers and people on the edge that live in problems. While in practice he is pushing free trade deals for which basically no one made a study if the workers or small business can survive them. So with such deals you are opening the market to the goods from places that have much lower regulation in every regard. Maybe this indeed with work for Germany but for a huge number of EU countries this could be fatal. Since it fully opens the market towards the countries that are 20, 30 or 50 times their population size (and they have visibly lower wages). What can be really bad for business if you are average Joe. What basically leads to the story in the first link.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Poland’s Law and Justice ’50/50′ about leaving Giorgia Meloni and joining forces with Viktor Orbán


Bombshell.
In other words this would basically mean visible rearrangement of power and influence inside EU. However that doesn't mean that this is "impractical" solution. As soon as Babis left the liberal block all of this came to my mind as the logical continuation of the story. Plus there is quite a few others that could join into this club. If this really takes off as new group this is major development.




Le Pen raises the stakes by challenging Macron’s role as commander-in-chief

German ministers dash to China in bid to escape retaliation over EV duties

Bolivia’s top general arrested after failed coup attempt

Kenya: What's behind the deadly protests?

 

[Virtual ghost]

At this rate Russians will be kick out of Vovchansk completely. What would basically be the end of their offensive in Kharkiv region.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That is going to be plenty of far right (dark gray).
Only all against them may result in them now having a majority (but even that may not be enough).
I mean tomorrow is the last day on election campaign, so this is what it is.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

French election: Massive turnout as voting nears end

France legislative elections: Far right could take power in Macron’s high-stakes vote — live updates



In a few hours we will know what is really going on in France.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Le Pen’s far right set for big win in first round of French election

The data is still coming in but it looks like far right is clearly on top at the end of the first round. Le Pen just gave victory speech.

 

[SensEye]

Interesting times. Looking forward to seeing how Le Pen actually governs if she gets control. I worry panicked centrists will move to the far left in a blocking move in round two. That far left consortium is way too close.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Le Pen’s far right set for big win in first round of French election

In France it is crazy right now.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Interesting times. Looking forward to seeing how Le Pen actually governs if she gets control. I worry panicked centrists will move to the far left in a blocking move in round two. That far left consortium is way too close.

But there is a catch, I am not sure most of his voters will follow him in any alliance towards the left. The trick is that Macron seems to have clearly the oldest voters on average (the so called "senors"). Therefore I am not sure that they will actually vote for the woke people in that large numbers. Most of them will probably stay home or vote in the second round for Macron's party where he passed into the second round (and lose in most of such places). While the center right is saying that they wouldn't tell their voters for who to vote for. What is probably subtle"vote Le pen guys". Since she is evidently closer to these people than the left.



Or if you want it americanized:

Wide Left coalition - Bernie
Macron - Biden
Center right - Republican establishment
Le Pen - Trump

 

[Virtual ghost]

I mean Macron is basically the most fiscally conservative figure in all this. Therefore I really wouldn't be so quick to presume that his voters will vote for the left. Le Pen is growing exactly because she is to the left of him in economy, but she doesn't have the woke story behind her (the story that scares fair amount of people).

Therefore Le pen is within the striking range of winning. Especially if most of center right voters nudge her, what in first past the post system can do a lot.


We are evidently in uncharted waters here.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I mean I said what I said because many are constantly pushing this idea that all women are liberal minded. What is simply false. Personally I lived under the rule of conservative women. However I never lived under the left leaning women, since the party never nominated a woman for top job. Brutal but true. Take look at UK, Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May, Liz Truss. Female Labor PMs ? Zero, if I got it right. Germany: right had Merkel, while left had no women at the top. First and only woman on the top of EU thus far: conservative.


I know that for Americans this is hard since in US party politics is also gender based politics, but not everyone lives like that.

I think this is also good time to bump this one. Out of all French options in this play only one has a female leader. Even if you dissect the left wing coalition from party to party this doesn't change. However everyone is panicking that the movement led by a woman will win the second round. Since she is the crazy right winger.


When you scratch the surface this really is "strange" when you think about it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

But we really have to wait to see who entered to the second round. Since every seat in the parliament should get a run-off race between the two top candidates. Unless someone got 50+% in first round (and there are some exceptions if I got it right).