Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

They evidently plan to push back the Russians over the northern border.

Continuation of the story.

 

[Virtual ghost]

French election: Rivals unite against Le Pen’s far right

Viktor Orbán arrives in Ukraine to meet Zelenskyy

The Netherlands has a new government. Here are 3 things to know.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is talk about elections in France (in the case someone wants to go in depth).


However the numbers at 8:23 are very interesting to take a look.

Left -red
Macron - orange
Center right - blue
Le Pen - black
Others - gray


I mean this is confirming that the strongest group for Macron are seniors. While young people vote left and middle aged are most likely to go for Le Pen.

What indeed is opening the great question.
Most candidates against Le pen will be from the left in the second round, since they got most votes after Le pen's party. What opens the question: will the seniors vote for the left with woke elements to stop her ? I mean even if seniors simply stay at home that is still pretty big deal. Because first past the post system is pretty relentless in this regard.




French legislative election: Leftists appeal for centrist votes to stop Le Pen — live updates

I am really interested to see how this will actually end.

 

[SensEye]

Me too. If the far left gets power it shove prove a real disaster for France. That will prove as interesting to see as a far right government. Interesting times either way.

Glad it's France who's decided to play Guinea pig with radicals and not my own country.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Me too. If the far left gets power it shove prove a real disaster for France. That will prove as interesting to see as a far right government. Interesting times either way.

Glad it's France who's decided to play Guinea pig with radicals and not my own country.

That isn't how this should work.

First of all the left is just a very wide coalition of parties that gathered together only because of fist past the post system. However they aren't really capable of governing together even if they managed to win over 50% of seats (what wouldn't happen). Also they are even less compatible with the Macron's centrists. While the party of Le Pen will surely come across as the largest and perhaps it could have a majority. Especially if some smaller right wing parties and their voters stand behind her.

Therefore in the end only two scenarios are realistic. There will be a complete mess of parliament that will be ungovernable, or Le Pen will manage to form stable majority. What means that opponents of Le Pen are now simply trying to go for scenario number one. Since that will probably lead to another snap elections in not to distant future.


Therefore it will be very interesting to watch what the Macron's senior base will do. Vote for left with woke elements, vote Le Pen, or stay home. They are basically who will decide where all of this is going and in most districts those will be the options on the table.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK election: Tories set to suffer total annihilation, final mega polls predict



Tomorrow is election day.

 

[Virtual ghost]

If you find all of these elections in France and UK to be interestingly complex you should try something more challenging.

 

[Virtual ghost]

France legislative elections 2024


They finally put out a map. So now we know which seats were filled already in the first round (since someone got over 50% of the vote). Almost all of it is far right in the countryside and the left in Paris metro area.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Relearning lessons from the past: NATO and economic deterrence

 

[Virtual ghost]

The early stages of the counter attack are on the way in the north east.

 

[Virtual ghost]

European Council



This is European council and it's current composition. The council is made out of 27 heads of states of EU. Also when you draw the bottom line this is in practice the most powerful body of EU. Since all major changes and ideas in the end ether start here or they are ended here. Therefore in a sense this is where real politics is made.


However what is interesting here is the pie chart. The color of slices defines the political orientation of the country's leader. While the size of the slice marks the percentage of the population in overall EU population.

So colors mean:

Red - Social democrats
Yellow - Centrist liberals
Light blue - Center right
Dark blue - Hard right
Gray - independents, populists, outsides etc.

While other blocks don't have leaders in any member state.



However this is where story actually gets interesting. There is fresh government in Netherlands and parties to right of center made a coalition government. What means that the non partisan person will take over as consensus leader. What means that Netherlands is moving from centrist yellow to gray. Currently there is also government formation process in Belgium and there you should get hard right leader. What means moving of Belgium from yellow to dark blue.

As you can see France in current days is quite contested country and Macron is losing control over the country. First he lost EU elections and now his party is imploding in elections for parliament. Therefore in a few years the odds are that someone from his party wouldn't win elections for the top job. After all that entire party is basically Macron's one man show. What means that some other option will take over, especially since there is limit of two terms and new paeron has to step in. What in the end means that the centrists are left with Slovenia and Estonia. Which together have only 3.5 million people. Plus it is worth saying that in both of those countries polls are showing that the centrists would lose to center right if the vote is today.


So let's now focus on the red part of the pie, the social-democratic one. After everything that has happened in German politics over the last few years it is very safe to presume that the largest chunk of the pie will shift from social-democrats to center right. Right now that is quite safe bet to make. Another pretty large red chunk is Spain, however in Spain Social democrats don't really have a majority. Therefore they have minority government and they relay of Catalan separatists to provide them the majority. However some top courts have once again started to increase legal "pressures" towards the separatists. The increase that is quite substantial. Therefore now it is coming to question what exactly will happen to the government in Spain. Especially since parties to the right of center are up in the polls.


What in the end brings us to the pretty obvious conclusion: which is that culturally left parties are facing COMPLETE electoral implosion in the big picture. Not to mention that this will all be reflected on the local and regional levels. Every few months I say "prepare for the right wing EU" and all this is basically that statement but developed in more detail. What means that on the medium run liberal ideas are in serious problems when it comes to EU. While we can only guess what will be on the long run at this rate.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The death of the UK’s Brexit dream

Will UK Labour leader Keir Starmer realign with EU?


The election day is here for UK.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Slovak culture minister blames sexual minorities for Europe’s low fertility

After this there is no way that center left block will accept Slovak ruling party back into it's fold (they even said that the other day). What means that the party will almost surely end in the new block that is being organized by Orban. The two prime-ministers are personal friends for years. Ruling party of Slovakia may be leftists but it is very authoritarian and socially traditional. After all this is direct continuation of the structures that ruled before the fall of Berlin wall.

 

[Virtual ghost]

UK general election 2024: Britain goes to the polls — latest updates

The fist exit polls should be out in an hour or so.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Berlin-Ankara ‘Grey Wolves’ row rumbles on as Germany summons Turkish envoy

Europe fears France and Italy will seize EU’s economy jobs

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia, China headline regional security summit

EU slaps tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese electric vehicles

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

EU: What's next for right-wing parties in Brussels?

More on who is who after elections for EU parliament.