Cold war 2.0

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Labour obliterate Tories with historic election win — exit poll


The big picture is clear, now we just have to see how all the details will turn out.

 

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Btw it looks like percent wise SNP is the party that actually got crushed the most. What suggests that Scottish independence wouldn't be a thing anytime soon.

 

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First seat declared: Labor holds, however Reform is evidently second party by strength.

 

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Second seat: reform is again clearly second.

What opened the question if this will be actually the surprise story of the election night (since it was basically obvious that labor will win).

 

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Third seat: Reform is again second (with double of the vote share that conservatives have)

If the whole countryside will vote like this the consequences could be absolutely massive on the long run.

 

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Fourth seat: but in south conservatives are second (but reform is third instead of 5th or 6th)

Therefore it is kinda safe to say that UK has new party even in practical sense.
But here I will stop. In a few hours we will know full results.

 

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UK election results

The counting is almost 100% complete and it is safe to say that this is labor landslide. The conservatives are completely crippled and they even lost a number of party leaders in the process. 120 seats out of 650 is nothing. Compare results from 2019 and now, that says almost all when it comes things at the face value.




Labour’s election victory is weaker than you think

But there is also this. The reform came evidently the third and it is less than 10% away from Conservatives in popular vote. Not to mention that they came 2nd in over 100 of races. What means that if Labor doesn't managed to lead country forward in these turbulent times there is open possibility that many will turn to the Refom.


Plus the Scottish patriots are also completely crippled, Scotland voted labor.

 

[Falcarius]

It is quite clear that the 2 main parties are hemorrhaging support. Historically the left has been the victim of First Past The Post system. But rightly or wrongly, that is the rule of the game. For example, in the 80's both Labour and Liberals would have won if vote share translated into seats but instead their vote got fragmented. Now it is happening to the right.

It is not clear what the Conservatives will do. Clearly trying to out do Reform UK has cost them badly and is seemingly not viable going forward. They have a massive problem, that their two core voting blocks are in essentially in contradiction. One block is business community and the other is nationalist in outlook. The business community are for the most part are rich socially liberal pro-liberal immigration types who voters deserted for Lib Dems in places like Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire. While the nationalist block more often than not are Euroseptics, socially authoritarian, and hold hardline anti-immgration views, where they are losing votes to Reform. They managed to lose both of these two blocks in the large numbers.

They have to either kill Reform as a party or merge. Farage won't be able to dilly-dally around to America and will have more scrutiny than he ever has had. The Conservatives can either go all out attack on Reform as a party of cranks and people with questionable views or just allow themselves to be cannibalized by Reform and Lib Dems like they have the past few years.

Parties don't win when they are split. In happened to Labour in 1980's and last decade when social democratic and democratic socialist wings came into conflict. The Conservatives suffered in mid-1990's for a decade when they were split on EU. The reason why the Conservatives in UK have been one of the most successful parties in the world is because they were pragmatic and accepted things like NHS, welfare state, minimum wage and knew when the political weather was turning. If they don't relearn that, they will spend decades in the wilderness.

 

[SensEye]

I think it will all depend on how Labour governs. They seem centrist and only a bit left which could prove OK if they stick closer to the center. But after 4 years time, when people start to get grumpy as people are want to do when they discover the government can't just wave a magic wand and make all their problems go away. Labour may start to swing farther left at that point. Borrow and spend deficit financing is the strategy left wing parties usually default to. That tends to lead to recession and a poor economy which makes voters move back the other way.

Conservatives and Reform will have to work things out over the next 4 years as they can't afford to split the vote. But they might need one more election loss to learn that lesson. A traditional long time party like the UK Conservatives will be stubborn and refuse to co-operate until they really see the writing on the wall vis-a-vis their future chances with a right wing vote split. And who knows, Labour might do a decent job and earn a second term regardless.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I think it will all depend on how Labour governs. They seem centrist and only a bit left which could prove OK if they stick closer to the center. But after 4 years time, when people start to get grumpy as people are want to do when they discover the government can't just wave a magic wand and make all their problems go away. Labour may start to swing farther left at that point. Borrow and spend deficit financing is the strategy left wing parties usually default to. That tends to lead to recession and a poor economy which makes voters move back the other way.

Conservatives and Reform will have to work things out over the next 4 years as they can't afford to split the vote. But they might need one more election loss to learn that lesson. A traditional long time party like the UK Conservatives will be stubborn and refuse to co-operate until they really see the writing on the wall vis-a-vis their future chances with a right wing vote split. And who knows, Labour might do a decent job and earn a second term regardless.

I was watching a little bit of UK election nigh and one kinda obvious argument popped out:

Labor won in UK but the fact of the matter is that all of our key allies and trade partners are trending right or even heavily to the right. What means that the party may find itself isolated in years down the road. In other words that evidently has numerous implications on what will be happening at home. Since the right is evidently strengthening both in Europe and North America.

 

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Strategic analysis.

 

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Decoding China: Striving for a new world order

I recommend this since these are realities that western public doesn't think about too often. Because typical western media are never bothered to go into how "the other side" actually looks like in more detail. What is actually pretty important topic.

 

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NATO’s Stoltenberg rules out Ukraine land-for-peace deal

 

[Falcarius]

I was watching a little bit of UK election nigh and one kinda obvious argument popped out:

Labor won in UK but the fact of the matter is that all of our key allies and trade partners are trending right or even heavily to the right. What means that the party may find itself isolated in years down the road. In other words that evidently has numerous implications on what will be happening at home. Since the right is evidently strengthening both in Europe and North America.

Why does it matter? What "implications"?

The UK has always had awkward relationship with the rest of Europe. From a selfish point of view, Trump re-election would be a much easier relationship as he is a lot more pro-Britain than Biden.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Why does it matter? What "implications"?

The UK has always had awkward relationship with the rest of Europe. From a selfish point of view, Trump re-election would be a much easier relationship as he is a lot more pro-Britain than Biden.

First of all just if something is awkward relationship that doesn't mean that it can't be even more awkward. If Le Pen indeed takes over France, if Germany continues to grow it's hard right, if Meloni gets another mandate (what she probably will), Netherlands just went hard right, Orban, PiS could return to power in Poland ....... etc. etc. Therefore I am sorry but I just don't see Labor fitting into that picture and that means tensions, weak trade etc. What will have very direct implications in how Labor government will be doing in fixing current mess that exists in UK. As you say UK is awkward even next to maintream European politics. Therefore if the trends of radicalization continue across the continent the relationship will surely become even more awkward (or none existant).


Trump had decent relationship with UK during his first mandate since the Conservatives were in power. However I am not really sure that this would be the case with Labor. Especially if his second mandate will be more radical than the first. Also it is quite possble that he would start to promate his buddy Farage, since that should spread his cloud. However that almost surely wouldn't sit well with Labor. Plus Canada is also looking to turn right from what I realize.


There are plenty of elements where all of this could get "complcaited" pretty quickly. However this doesn't mean that you wouldn't have similar scenarios in the case of Conservative victory. The world right now is simply unstable.

 

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Some fresh talking points on the above argument:


Dutch, Spanish far-right parties to join Orbán’s Patriots for Europe

Slovakia’s Fico laments not visiting Putin with Orbán

Hungary cancels visit of Germany’s Baerbock amid row over Orbán-Putin meeting

 

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Russia: Putin critic Kara-Murza taken to hospital, says wife

Modi to meet Putin: What to know about India-Russia ties

Iran election: Moderate Pezeshkian wins presidential runoff

Niger: West African junta leaders holding joint summit

 

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