Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

France backs efforts to quash Niger coup ahead of Sunday deadline

This is very big news. Since that basically means that international coalition led by France will use force to remove groups that did the coup recently in Niger (with outside help of Russia and Wagner). The Niger is one of key allies of the collective west in Western Africa and therefore it seems there will be action that will try to restore elected government in the country. This is evidently something about what we will hear more.



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[SensEye]

France backs efforts to quash Niger coup ahead of Sunday deadline

This is very big news. Since that basically means that international coalition led by France will use force to remove groups that did the coup recently in Niger (with outside help of Russia and Wagner). The Niger is one of key allies of the collective west in Western Africa and therefore it seems there will be action that will try to restore elected government in the country. This is evidently something about what we will hear more.

I'd kind of like the west to stay out of this one. But when I mean out, I mean really out. After Niger starts to implode post coup, zero funding and/or humanitarian aid should be provided by the west. Let them look to Russia/China/Islamic states for humanitarian aid. That will teach them a lesson.

I'm fine if ECOWAS wants to go in on their own though. I suspect they are too incompetent to do so, but if they can work it out as an 'African solution to an African problem' have at it. Just don't scapegoat the west if things get worse.

 

[The Cat]

lol tell the money men to stay out of the place where the money is gonna come from.

"Hey Eckhart! Think of the future."
​

It feels good to laugh.

It's more profitable long term to send the aid. China certainly will, the west can't afford to let them be the only friendly face from outside. It's a bigger game than short term stinginess from the sidelines.​

 

[Virtual ghost]

I'd kind of like the west to stay out of this one. But when I mean out, I mean really out. After Niger starts to implode post coup, zero funding and/or humanitarian aid should be provided by the west. Let them look to Russia/China/Islamic states for humanitarian aid. That will teach them a lesson.

I'm fine if ECOWAS wants to go in on their own though. I suspect they are too incompetent to do so, but if they can work it out as an 'African solution to an African problem' have at it. Just don't scapegoat the west if things get worse.

The West almost surely wouldn't stay away because that would be too expensive. The west is loosing resources and income as countries in the region are getting coups one by one. While Niger is one of more important countries in the terms of mining ore that are producing nuclear energy. Not to mention that the plan was to build oil and gas pipelines from Nigeria over Niger and then further north into Europe. What should be the long term alternative for Russian energy. Plus if you leave the mess in Niger you are risking that from there Islamists start to spread into remaining ECOWAS countries. Since there wouldn't really be anybody to touch them there. What in the end leads only to loses for the collective West. Therefore long story short: the odds that nothing will happen here are slim. The stakes just seem too high. After all the Wagner did help the coup exactly due to idea that the western troops would leave the area. Therefore what France announced is basically a counter attack or counter revolution.

This potentially seems to be even bigger conflict than Ukraine.

 

[SensEye]

China/Russia won't send much in the way of aid (here - take a look at this as an indicator: https://www.wfp.org/funding/2022 ) but they will buy resources as cheap as possible. Admittedly, that will prop up the military regime. Sucks to be a citizen though once the economy tanks (even further). But I have seen a fair amount of pro-coup demonstrations. So if that's what they want...

Real politick will get the west involved, but I would just like to change it up for once. Let these pro-Islamic folks stew in their own juices. Or maybe not. But the west should not go and pick up the pieces if Niger turns into a humanitarian catastrophe due to their own actions.

 

[The Cat]

China has already been quite philanthropic with Africa. They like making friends down the road. All countries do. Especially when their friends are sitting on the place where all the tech resources are coming from. Once upon a time Collonialism, but now take requires give. And foresight of vision. Isolationism only leads to a slow death of a country turns out selfish cowardice under the guise of being above it all doesnt win cold wars only leads to heating them up. Of Course if death and misery is the point of a point of view, forgoing humanitarian efforts seems a fine "idea" far from novel or well thought out, but capable of "existing" if not living in the short term.

 

[Virtual ghost]

China/Russia won't send much in the way of aid (here - take a look at this as an indicator: https://www.wfp.org/funding/2022 ) but they will buy resources as cheap as possible. Admittedly, that will prop up the military regime. Sucks to be a citizen though once the economy tanks (even further). But I have seen a fair amount of pro-coup demonstrations. So if that's what they want...

Real politick will get the west involved, but I would just like to change it up for once. Let these pro-Islamic folks stew in their own juices. Or maybe not. But the west should not go and pick up the pieces if Niger turns into a humanitarian catastrophe due to their own actions.

Niger is a country of 25 million people, while the shown crowds that I saw are no more than a few hundred people. After all by this logic Trump should today be president, since the crowd on the TV looked big and loud.


We entered into the era of deglobalization and that means the crash of "we are all friends" and "that is not my concern" logic. So if you wouldn't take the area your opponent will and they will use it against you. From what I understand this is the 4th coup in the region that was done with Russian help. Therefore the odds are that this will continue if there is no counter of any kind (until the west loses everything). So looking away doesn't seem to be much of a plan. Yes, it would be better that this can all be solved peacefully but there is no sign that this can happen. After all Ukraine happened pretty much simply because the west didn't rally react to many hostile moves over the years. What opened the door for "maybe I can get a way with it".

 

[SensEye]

I see your point re: demonstrations. But if the case is that the majority opposes the coup, there should be a popular uprising. Dangerous perhaps, but freedom has to be earned. That means it often has to be fought for and sometimes died for. Where would Ukraine be if they just capitulated and hoped for NATO to fight their battles for them? Enslaved under Putin's authoritarian rule I would suggest. But they fight and die and merit support. What have the citizens of Niger done?

Also, if Russia is truly meddling, sure, kick their ass. I would suggest the best way to do this would be direct intervention in Ukraine, rather than Niger.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I see your point re: demonstrations. But if the case is that the majority opposes the coup, there should be a popular uprising. Dangerous perhaps, but freedom has to be earned. That means it often has to be fought for and sometimes died for. Where would Ukraine be if they just capitulated and hoped for NATO to fight their battles for them? Enslaved under Putin's authoritarian rule I would suggest. But they fight and die and merit support. What have the citizens of Niger done?

Also, if Russia is truly meddling, sure, kick their ass. I would suggest the best way to do this would be direct intervention in Ukraine, rather than Niger.

The thing is that countries like Niger are such a lose societies that people don't gather together as easily (plus it is multi ethnic state from what I understand). After all this is a country that is over a 1000 kilometers across, and 85% of that is Sahara desert. So for very poor people that kinda makes it impossible to just go around their country and do what needs to be done. I don't know if you have even been in a desert but in such environment the local level is what rules for the most part. Since communities are physically separated and loosely connected with some random road that perhaps isn't even paved.

So in a sense it make sense to act now because the coup people probably removed only the central government. Therefore now it is still possible to remove them without wrecking the whole country. What must be done here is probably more of surgery than a standard war.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Niger tense as ECOWAS ultimatum to junta set to expire

The tensions are rising.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[The Cat]

At A certain point I start to wonder how much of all this is just out of habits that feel familiar feeling comfortable when you're trying to fit a single narrative to a thing that by its very nature exists in what we conceptualize as infinite directions.

Real folk blues indeed.
Ouroboros.
​

 

[SensEye]

Looks like ECOWAS got cold feet regarding the Niger coup. I don't know that ECOWAS has gone as far as developing a reputation to ruin, but they are on the brink of showing themselves to be a toothless tiger.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Looks like ECOWAS got cold feet regarding the Niger coup. I don't know that ECOWAS has gone as far as developing a reputation to ruin, but they are on the brink of showing themselves to be a toothless tiger.

That isn't all that surprising if it is true.
Because the idea of retaking the Niger carries it's risks and you could end up with much bigger problems than you current have. Also western help is reserved for Ukraine that remains a priority. Plus if you go into Niger you will have to face Wagner, what carries it's own set of political and practical problems. This is the decision that has to be though through and it is better that they they do it that way. When it comes to war "overextension" is very likely problem to occur if you aren't careful. They should go in but if there is no real capacity it is better that they just dig in and make sure that further coups in the region don't happen.

 

[Virtual ghost]

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[Virtual ghost]

Algeria faces political dilemma over Niger coup

Niger junta digs in as ECOWAS ponders next step

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[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Russia shoots for the moon as space race against US heats up

One of the last elements that was kinda lacking in order to make cold war atmosphere complete: space race.



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Niger junta declares new government with ECOWAS on standby

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[Virtual ghost]