Random political thought thread.

[SensEye]

Even I know Iowa doesn't mean much. Haley about as well or maybe a bit better than expected (or maybe it's just that DeSantis did worse). New Hampshire doesn't mean all that much either, although Haley would need to do well there to get a bit of momentum from what I understand of how these things work.

Trump is, and always has been a strong favorite. We might learn something in the South Carolina and Michigan primaries but only if Haley surprises. I believe Trump polls very high in both those places as far as nominee goes.

I guess I can hold out some hope until then. Super Tuesday will probably put it all to bed in Trump's favor, but dare to dream. I wonder if all the Republican bozos who repeatedly would state "I don't think Trump will win the nomination" in interviews last fall will issue mea culpas. I suspect not.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Even I know Iowa doesn't mean much. Haley about as well or maybe a bit better than expected (or maybe it's just that DeSantis did worse). New Hampshire doesn't mean all that much either, although Haley would need to do well there to get a bit of momentum from what I understand of how these things work.

Trump is, and always has been a strong favorite. We might learn something in the South Carolina and Michigan primaries but only if Haley surprises. I believe Trump polls very high in both those places as far as nominee goes.

I guess I can hold out some hope until then. Super Tuesday will probably put it all to bed in Trump's favor, but dare to dream. I wonder if all the Republican bozos who repeatedly would state "I don't think Trump will win the nomination" in interviews last fall will issue mea culpas. I suspect not.

Iowa means quite a bit since it defines narrative. However if other candidates don't find the hole to exploit in early states that is pretty much it. Since the donors wouldn't finance this to the last state. Instead most of them will switch to financing Biden. Only if they can agree on one candidate that will go against Trump 1on1 then just maybe they will push the primaries until the end, since divisive primaries often cause a loss.



However the main problem is that everyone is treating this as internal American issue. What evidently isn't the case since on the internet there are no real borders in classical sense of the terms. What means that millions upon millions of foreign posters get to swing certain races, since they can freely comment. So this is something that can be used for geopolitical means when it is done in mass and coordination. You don't even need collusion, you just push the guy that is closest to your interest. Be it rising hell, making stability, remaking trade relations in the big picture, etc. Not to mention that you can push both candidates hard and cause social tensions through that. What in general makes it easier to make a push somewhere around the globe, since social tensions are evident distraction.


The situation in the field with lousy policies is something that socially allows this to happen. However the scale and non-stop nature of events suggests that there are hidden factors and "nudges" in the equation. So this is something that has to be solved on the level of infrastructure that allows mass interference from none democratic places. Plus certain arguments have to be posted over and over in the so called artificial "echo chambers". So that certain social structures get disrupted (like the ones that promote mass despair). In other words you can really swing plenty of people by opening various online groups. Because with that you are basically defining the narrative and the box in which the race will be played. Even if you aren't voter or citizen yourself. I wasn't born in a democracy and perhaps the most important take from that era of my life is being aware of how your positions were made. In other words to which degree someone else has led you to the point that you believe what you believe. This factor is unavoidable in life but a person should be aware of it all the time. Since this is basically the foundation of critical thinking


Therefore we don't have that much to learn here. Instead people simply need to act. Since fully functional democracy requires high participation. What is because that usually provides best results. Which is exactly why despair groups are dangerous and anyone who makes them perhaps has an agenda.

 

[Virtual ghost]

What I wanted to say is that Trump won with 51% or 56 000 votes. However Iowa has something like 3 million people the last time I checked. What basically means that even most of right leaning voters didn't show up. What is basically this power of depression and despair I was talking about. Plus if the independent voters decided to become Republicans for this cycle there is basically no way that we would see this result.

And then we have videos over the forum that are about "How do I make difference ?". How about going to the polls for a change ? Did that cross your mind ? The primaries are the real elections where things actually get decided, general is just finishing touch. Which probably doesn't mean much if you skipped the phase where you could change the trajectory of where thing will be going. Since there you have multiple choice, while in general you don't.

 

[ceecee]

What I wanted to say is that Trump won with 51% or 56 000 votes. However Iowa has something like 3 million people the last time I checked. What basically means that even most of right leaning voters didn't show up. What is basically this power of depression and despair I was talking about. Plus if the independent voters decided to become Republicans for this cycle there is basically no way that we would see this result.

And then we have videos over the forum that are about "How do I make difference ?". How about going to the polls for a change ? Did that cross your mind ? The primaries are the real elections where things actually get decided, general is just finishing touch. Which probably doesn't mean much if you skipped the phase where you could change the trajectory of where thing will be going. Since there you have multiple choice, while in general you don't.

Yeah I agree with this. Put it this way - there was an election for mayor (city council and a school improvement bond too) in a city right next to the township I live in. Given the amount of lawn signs, I was thinking they were evenly matched. The Dem won but what was more telling was that a little less than 1600 people voted. Total. This is a small town but the population is about 11,000 with maybe 8500 registered voters. And Michigan has early voting, absentee ballots, same day registration so there were all kinds of options for people. What this tells me is less than 20% of the people in this town voted. I agree that this is the bigger problem.

But Republican run states do all they can to keep people from voting. Not just black people or poor people although that is the focus. All people. And it can get even stupider than that - especially in southern states.

EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Katie Britt Introduces Legislation To Prevent Illegal Immigrants From Voting In Federal Elections | Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith

www.hydesmith.senate.gov

While I don't think non-citizens should vote in federal elections, I certainly have no issue with them voting in municipal elections. They live there, they should participate in deciding who governs their areas just as much as anyone else living there.

 

[The Cat]

Yeah I agree with this. Put it this way - there was an election for mayor (city council and a school improvement bond too) in a city right next to the township I live in. Given the amount of lawn signs, I was thinking they were evenly matched. The Dem won but what was more telling was that a little less than 1600 people voted. Total. This is a small town but the population is about 11,000 with maybe 8500 registered voters. And Michigan has early voting, absentee ballots, same day registration so there were all kinds of options for people. What this tells me is less than 20% of the people in this town voted. I agree that this is the bigger problem.

But Republican run states do all they can to keep people from voting. Not black people or poor people although that is the focus. All people. And it can get even stupider than that - especially in southern states.

EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Katie Britt Introduces Legislation To Prevent Illegal Immigrants From Voting In Federal Elections | Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith

www.hydesmith.senate.gov

While I don't think non-citizens should vote in federal elections, I certainly have no issue with them voting in municipal elections. They live there, they should participate in who governs their areas just as much as anyone else living there.

Between my shoulder blades start to get real itchy with all this who is and isnt legal to live life here with the rising fascism and the fucking neighborhood apps that as far as i can tell are just report your neighbor to the police for everything. That's gonna end well historically.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeah I agree with this. Put it this way - there was an election for mayor (city council and a school improvement bond too) in a city right next to the township I live in. Given the amount of lawn signs, I was thinking they were evenly matched. The Dem won but what was more telling was that a little less than 1600 people voted. Total. This is a small town but the population is about 11,000 with maybe 8500 registered voters. And Michigan has early voting, absentee ballots, same day registration so there were all kinds of options for people. What this tells me is less than 20% of the people in this town voted. I agree that this is the bigger problem.

But Republican run states do all they can to keep people from voting. Not just black people or poor people although that is the focus. All people. And it can get even stupider than that - especially in southern states.

EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Katie Britt Introduces Legislation To Prevent Illegal Immigrants From Voting In Federal Elections | Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith

www.hydesmith.senate.gov

While I don't think non-citizens should vote in federal elections, I certainly have no issue with them voting in municipal elections. They live there, they should participate in deciding who governs their areas just as much as anyone else living there.

I am aware of the fact that voting isn't 100% given right in USA. But people really seem to be too relaxed with local governments. What is ironic since there the concrete decisions are made for their community. US has this "government bad" mindset but it really matters who sits in various local offices. Therefore what happened in Iowa is basically a disaster in the terms of democracy 110 000 votes out of something like 2 500 000 adults (and these are conservative primaries in conservative state). After all turnout is one of the main anti-corruption measures. Because if political figures see that people pay attention they would cut down on scams and nonsense. While if you know that partisan hacks will do the job and cover for you then you can do all kinds of things. Turnout is really what gives the system legitimacy.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Former NATO chief to Democrats: Cut a border deal to help Ukraine and beat Trump

 

[The Cat]

Boy theres a lot of grating stuff in there. A lot of feels like parents negotiating with a bratty child when what that child needs is a good ass whoopin in front of god and everyone at the grocery store. I think its telling that democratic political interests would have them capitulating to republicans who are essentially holding democracy hostage. One would hope that different lessons would have been learned from 2016. Chris Christie knows it and weirdly admitted it recently.

I'll be a lot more willing to believe "Not all republicans" If I saw more of the party "crossing the isle" rather than being expected to just wait for Democrats to do it all the time. The issue for me is Republicans know damned well they'd lose their seats if they let Ukraine fall because people in America love to eat bread, and our agriculture has been globalized in practicality if not name. If Ukraine falls bread gets a whole hell of a lot harder to come by because I know TBTB in Russia doesnt give a damn if the world starves. Beyond that the red hawks and the blue hawks have always come together on matters of war outside the talking points of why. It all feels like theater, the problem really gets hairier when you factor in that theres a lot of people in office on the right who are essentially bug nut ideologues so busy chasing social media clout they will let the whole thing and not even think about it till burning alive ruins their selfie.

Calling a spade a spade has never been any polticians strong suit. But the american people have gotten to the point where forget discerning reality from fiction, we've forgotten what is real to the point most of us dont even have a basis for comparison.

The guy isnt even wrong, but it would require the american people to be honest with themselves about how they really feel about things here and abroad and you're average Americans would rather pull teeth than face up to that. The right and the left here cant see themselves in the other side, let alone realize that most of the debates about the sides are just made up to keep the poor at each others throats and nowhere near the rich or as we like to think of them the real people. The Merry Go Round keeps breaking down and there are no cats in America and the streets are covered with cheese So put our mind at ease...

 

[SensEye]

Former NATO chief to Democrats: Cut a border deal to help Ukraine and beat Trump

He's certainly correct here. Border issues may very well sink the Democrats in the general election despite Trump's unpalatability. I would have the border on par with Biden's senility as the top 2 problem issues for the Democrats. They won't move on from Biden, so at least they should modify their immigration policies.

While it is dirty pool (and unwise) for the Republicans to lever Ukraine funding to get Democrats to move on the border, it's in the Dems best interests to do so. If this helps Ukraine as a byproduct, all the better IMO.

 

[Virtual ghost]

He's certainly correct here. Border issues may very well sink the Democrats in the general election despite Trump's unpalatability. I would have the border on par with Biden's senility as the top 2 problem issues for the Democrats. They won't move on from Biden, so at least they should modify their immigration policies.

While it is dirty pool (and unwise) for the Republicans to lever Ukraine funding to get Democrats to move on the border, it's in the Dems best interests to do so. If this helps Ukraine as a byproduct, all the better IMO.

Regardless of how many pro Ukraine posts I have made it really makes no sense that you are helping Ukraine while ignoring serious problems in your own backyard. That makes no sense however you turn it. Therefore in this exact example I don't see what the Democrats where thinking (the odds are they weren't). In the times when global order is openly falling apart the last thing you need is constant physical instability at home. What are border problems as well as mass violent crime in general. Those two are "luxuries" that you can't afford in the world as it is now.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Post Iowa polls regarding New Hampshire (from RCP).


Trump 52
Haley 38
DeSantis 6


Trump 50
Haley 36
DeSantis 6



In the case that Rammy didn't gave up and endorsed Trump this would just maybe be a long shoot. But 15 points is basically "safe" margin. While in South Carolina Trump has a 30 point lead in polling average. And in Nevada he has dominating 58 point lead. So let's be honest and say this is a done deal. Especially since there isn't any kind of a game plan for states further down the road. The guy is getting the nomination. That is basically a fact at this point.

What means that it up to the Democrats to make a serious game plan for the general. Since in the end it seem that it will come to life that anti Trump camp will have to make their stand there.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

After thinking about the concept of a lack of political vision a bit:

It's not that hard to come up with a vision.

The challenging thing is how to achieve the vision and make it happen. But elections aren't won based on those kinds of details; very few voters look at a policy proposal and put in the research and analysis to decide for themselves how feasible it is. Some voters might consult what an expert thinks, but the problem with that is simply that the expert might be in the pocket of some lobbyist or think tank. Ultimately, the question of how to make it happen will need to be decided after the election, provided victory is obtained. The truth is that you don't need to have it nailed down for the election, though.

So, I can articulate a few different visions. But in this business of coming up with visions, it's very unusual for me to try and put together something so shapeless. I am also reluctant to articulate them simply because it would be like wearing my heart on my sleeve, but they amount, to nothing more than stating that change is possible, and good things can be accomplished, if we work for it together.

I'm not sure if that is true; perhaps there are limits to prevent this. There's something to acknowledging that real change is possible, though. That could be a very powerful, inspiring message if harnessed right. It would probably need to delve into specifics (a little, but not too much; going into the weeds would not be necessary) to overcome skepticism; you would have to establish what you were hoping to change, and what would be different.

 

[Virtual ghost]

After Iowa Trump is again rising in RCP polling average (from 0.6 lead to 2.0 points).

 

[Virtual ghost]

World’s cartoonists on this week’s events

 

[Red Herring]

 

[Virtual ghost]

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden


Swing states:

Arizona: Trump +4.8
Nevada: Trump +5.4
Wisconsin: Tie
Michigan: Trump +5.3
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3
North Carolina: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +6.6


I am sorry Dems but your guy will probably lose. Most of these aren't even in the margin of error and presidential polls in general underestimate Trump. In 2020 Biden should have won by 7 points and won by 4.5, while swing states were by a point or less. So with this kind of polls you are almost surely in problems over your head.

Therefore fresh and more inspiring candidate is desperately needed. Doing it like this is a big risk that isn't really justified.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden


Swing states:

Arizona: Trump +4.8
Nevada: Trump +5.4
Wisconsin: Tie
Michigan: Trump +5.3
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3
North Carolina: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +6.6


I am sorry Dems but your guy will probably lose. Most of these aren't even in the margin of error and presidential polls in general underestimate Trump. In 2020 Biden should have won by 7 points and won by 4.5, while swing states were by a point or less. So with this kind of polls you are almost surely in problems over your head.

Therefore fresh and more inspiring candidate is desperately needed. Doing it like this is a big risk that isn't really justified.

They will never intervene because there is no progressive challenger to stop at all costs because they might not get people too excited. That's the only time people like that care about engineering the outcome.

"Saving the election" is not really important in this case because there is nobody to gatekeep, which is what matters more. I've also observed constant "moving of the goalposts" over the years; they apparently can only ever afford to do this in certain circumstances. Note that these people always turn into hapless boobs in the general.

There, I said it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

They will never intervene because there is no progressive challenger to stop at all costs because they might people too excited. That's the only time people like that care about engineering the outcome.

"Saving the election" is not really important in this case because there is nobody to gatekeep.

There, I said it.

Yeah, I know.
But in that case they should really stop with 24/7 reporting on how dangerous is Trump. Since with this kind of polling result it is evident that there has to be completely different game plan. So if you don't make changes regarding what is evidently wrong you are basically just drama queen at the end of the day.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Yeah, I know.
But in that case they should really stop with 24/7 reporting on how dangerous is Trump. Since with this kind of polling result it is evident that there has to be completely different game plan. So if you don't make changes regarding what is evidently wrong you are basically just drama queen at the end of the day.

Reporting on Trump won't change because it drives ratings up.

 

[Virtual ghost]

‘We don’t have a clear path to victory’: DeSantis exits presidential race


DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump. The primaries are over.