Random political thought thread.

[Tomb1]

Using the fallacy of Reductio Ad Absurdum, this Judge basically destroyed Trump's position on presidential immunity -- Trump is using "presidential immunity" as a premise to argue that he can't be prosecuted for trying to subvert the 2020 election. Here, his attorney gets wrecked on the hypothetical questioning regarding assasinations of a political rival.

[video]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Trump is losing ground in the polls. Over the last month we came from Trump +3.5 to Trump +0.6. Therefore this score is at least somewhat in the margin of error and now Dems have some kind of a shoot with these numbers. The standard is that they need at least 3 point win in vote to actually win the electoral college. So when it was Trump +3.5 that was just too far that you have something to really work with. The graph is what is telling the story.

 

[The Cat]

Its almost like early polls don't matter for a number of reasons. Weird.

 

[ceecee]

Its almost like polls don't matter for a number of reasons. Weird.

Fixed that.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Its almost like early polls don't matter for a number of reasons. Weird.

Not really, since most people don't realize what is the point of early polls.
Early polling isn't about predicting final result but keeping the score of where are things at the moment. What then allows party strategists to make plans of how exactly to distribute money around the map and how the narrative should look like. What is pretty important in the terms of fundraising ... and that is what is going to determine the final outcome for the most part.

But that is the level that isn't for common mortals.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Fixed that.

The real smartass answer would be: Polls don't matter since Trump isn't going to accept the results if he looses.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Latest GOP split: Senate leaders hold out as House brass goes all-in for Trump

 

[ceecee]

The real smartass answer would be: Polls don't matter since Trump isn't going to accept the results if he looses.

If SCOTUS sides with Trump, neither will Biden. No reason to.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

If SCOTUS sides with Trump, neither will Biden. No reason to.

That's something, at least.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

With these numbers the only real question is how big the margins will be.
However some other parts of data are interesting.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Although the weather of -25F or even bellow is really a wildcard here.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

The primaries are basically over. With this big of a lead that is basically impossible to reverse.
Especially since Rammy dropped out and endorsed Trump. What means that any kind of a long shoot in New Hampshire probably isn't going to happen. After all if DeSantis were to drop out something like 2/3 of his base would go to Trump. Plus the challengers put plenty of money into very early states in hopes that they can pull some kind of a surprise. Therefore anti Trump ground game for other 45-48 states doesn't really exist in detail.

So the only thing that remains are legal problems and that is objectively pretty slippery slope to stand on. Since it rises social tensions pretty quickly.
What basically means that we have Biden vs Trump at the end of the day. Therefore plans and expectations should be made accordingly.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

If the whippersnappers on the left would quit being agists for the Republican party, it would seem less dire. But Trump winning Iowa matters about as Much as Ted Cruz winning it in 16. Trump is likely to get the nomination, depending on his legal entanglements, but if he cant do something about the enthusiasm which isnt there. He's gonna struggle in the general. Like he did in 20

 

[Virtual ghost]

5 Scenarios for What Might Come Next in New Hampshire

 

[The Cat]

In my dream scenario Lauren Boebert comes out a The Baroness and Lindsey Graham is voiced by Christopher Cullens as Cobra Commander. Imagining him Curse Dan Crenshaw as a one eyed buffoon while calling MTG a Bungling fool would be priceless. Also having grown up in the 80's and 90's in America Ive been conditioned to suspect that Tulsi Gabbard's white streak and put together manner mean she is a dark sorceress of some kind and does a lot of beam and levitation based magic. These Random Political Thoughts have been brought to you in part by the fresh clean flavor of wrigley's spearmint gum.