Random political thought thread.

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

 

[Virtual ghost]

RCP latest polls



In the last minute polls for primaries Trump has 16 to 27 point lead in NH. Depending on if DeSantis is still included in the game. But if Trump wins by over 20 the game is surely over tomorrow.



However there is something that is probably more "interesting" in polls.
New York: Biden +9

From time to time they make this poll and it always seems to have similar result, which is actually deeply problematic for the Democrats. The problem is that Biden won the state by 23 points in 2020. So if the state is kinda competitive that could drain plenty of time and money for the Democrats (since it is big state). Plus this puts plenty of house seats into open play. After all this is original home state of Trump and local governor is fairly unpopular from what I understand. What makes the state kinda competitive and that is big strategic problem for the Dems, if this actually becomes the case.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polls Show Trump Could Be Doomed If He’s Convicted. Will a Trial Happen in Time?


Just some thoughts on the hot topic.

 

[Virtual ghost]

In Trump’s closing argument in New Hampshire, he sounds a lot like his lawyers

As I said 6 months ago, the trials will be his campaign.

 

[SensEye]

Polls Show Trump Could Be Doomed If He’s Convicted. Will a Trial Happen in Time?


Just some thoughts on the hot topic.

Don't trust those polls at all. Trump's legal problems certainly haven't hurt him in the primaries. And lots of polls show Haley with a large lead over Biden if they went head to head. So Republicans don't even seem to want to insure a victory for their party as I think Haley would deliver that. Republicans seem dead set on Trump and I don't think legal problems will really change the minds of any of his fans. I mean, if a voter hasn't figured out Trump's true character by now, I doubt a court decision will change their mind.

Also, I doubt any actual convictions will come before the election. So even if it looks bad for Trump, if he wins, all his problems will go away as he can just have the justice department drop all the cases against him (plus all those weird US rules that allow the sitting President to be legally immune to just about everything).

 

[Virtual ghost]

Don't trust those polls at all. Trump's legal problems certainly haven't hurt him in the primaries. And lots of polls show Haley with a large lead over Biden if they went head to head. So Republicans don't even seem to want to insure a victory for their party as I think Haley would deliver that. Republicans seem dead set on Trump and I don't think legal problems will really change the minds of any of his fans. I mean, if a voter hasn't figured out Trump's true character by now, I doubt a court decision will change their mind.

Also, I doubt any actual convictions will come before the election. So even if it looks bad for Trump, if he wins, all his problems will go away as he can just have the justice department drop all the cases against him (plus all those weird US rules that allow the sitting President to be legally immune to just about everything).

Go a little bit back and you will see me posting actual polls where he should take elections pretty easy. (in other words I don't want to be a doomer so I post diversity of opinions)

But yes, Biden is also losing a fare share of the left demographic, so this can easily equalize. After all this factor could easily benefit Republicans since they are much more loyal voters. Plus the media in general are indeed trying to show that Trump is in bigger problems than he really is. Even my local news are doing it and I am thousands of miles from nearest US border. But as I said I don't want to be a complete doomer over this issue. However my gut feeling is that he going to win. In 2016 I was correct about this and I now I am probably as well. As you can see from the other thread I have a nose for people that are in "desperate times, desperate measures" mindset.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The counting has started.

At 7% counted:

Trump: 53.6%
Haley: 45.7%

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

The counting has started.

At 7% counted:

Trump: 53.6%
Haley: 45.7%

That's better than I thought, honestly. Of course, it's only 7%.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump declared winner at just 19% of votes counted.

55:43

It is a win but it isn't exactly a landslide.
We will see what will be until the end.


If you care about details.

Overview and Live Results: New Hampshire Presidential Primary

 

[Virtual ghost]

I saw that various media claim that Haley wants to play the game at least until Super Tuesday (March 5th).

What kinda makes sense, especially if the current vote will be around 10% difference.

 

[Virtual ghost]

30% counted

54:45


Not exactly what he was hoping for.

 

[Virtual ghost]

On the other hand democratic side is much more shocking when you think about it. Despite already known mess in the state.


35% counted

Biden 31%
Phillips 23%
Write-in 40%

 

[Virtual ghost]

If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere


As I said the race is basically over.
The only thing that remains an option is to push through the primaries in a few more states in order to water down Trump is general. But that probably wouldn't have much effect and in a way it could backfire. Like the so called "legal problems".

In other words Democrats have to prepare since the Republican primaries are over. It is time to fire up the main show.



Although if we judge how things went I wonder if DeSantis was actually controlled opposition.

 

[Virtual ghost]

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden


I am sorry Dems but your guy will probably lose. Most of these aren't even in the margin of error and presidential polls in general underestimate Trump. In 2020 Biden should have won by 7 points and won by 4.5, while swing states were by a point or less. So with this kind of polls you are almost surely in problems over your head.

Therefore fresh and more inspiring candidate is desperately needed. Doing it like this is a big risk that isn't really justified.

While now after the wins in Republican primary numbers are even worse for Dems (judge details for yourself).

 

[SensEye]

Haley is flogging a dead horse at this point. She may yet have second thoughts on South Carolina as the date approaches and pull out. If not, one has to presume she will get thumped there, and then call it a day.

 

[Virtual ghost]

If she loses even her own home state by visible margin that is the sign to call in a night.
Let donors sponsor some other important races with that money.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Who’s ahead in South Carolina?


The primaries are over (let's just be honest about it).

 

[The Cat]

Well... yeah.​

 

[Tomb1]

MSN

 

[ceecee]

Who’s ahead in South Carolina?


The primaries are over (let's just be honest about it).

Agreed. Additionally, I don't see the point of any of the R caucuses and frankly, don't know why the Dems would bother in the future. Nikki Haley was always auditioning for VP whether people believe that or not.