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Random political thought thread.

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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After thinking about the concept of a lack of political vision a bit:

It's not that hard to come up with a vision.

The challenging thing is how to achieve the vision and make it happen. But elections aren't won based on those kinds of details; very few voters look at a policy proposal and put in the research and analysis to decide for themselves how feasible it is. Some voters might consult what an expert thinks, but the problem with that is simply that the expert might be in the pocket of some lobbyist or think tank. Ultimately, the question of how to make it happen will need to be decided after the election, provided victory is obtained. The truth is that you don't need to have it nailed down for the election, though.

So, I can articulate a few different visions. But in this business of coming up with visions, it's very unusual for me to try and put together something so shapeless. I am also reluctant to articulate them simply because it would be like wearing my heart on my sleeve, but they amount, to nothing more than stating that change is possible, and good things can be accomplished, if we work for it together.

I'm not sure if that is true; perhaps there are limits to prevent this. There's something to acknowledging that real change is possible, though. That could be a very powerful, inspiring message if harnessed right. It would probably need to delve into specifics (a little, but not too much; going into the weeds would not be necessary) to overcome skepticism; you would have to establish what you were hoping to change, and what would be different.
 
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Red Herring

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Virtual ghost

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2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden


Swing states:

Arizona: Trump +4.8
Nevada: Trump +5.4
Wisconsin: Tie
Michigan: Trump +5.3
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3
North Carolina: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +6.6


I am sorry Dems but your guy will probably lose. Most of these aren't even in the margin of error and presidential polls in general underestimate Trump. In 2020 Biden should have won by 7 points and won by 4.5, while swing states were by a point or less. So with this kind of polls you are almost surely in problems over your head.

Therefore fresh and more inspiring candidate is desperately needed. Doing it like this is a big risk that isn't really justified.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden


Swing states:

Arizona: Trump +4.8
Nevada: Trump +5.4
Wisconsin: Tie
Michigan: Trump +5.3
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.3
North Carolina: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +6.6


I am sorry Dems but your guy will probably lose. Most of these aren't even in the margin of error and presidential polls in general underestimate Trump. In 2020 Biden should have won by 7 points and won by 4.5, while swing states were by a point or less. So with this kind of polls you are almost surely in problems over your head.

Therefore fresh and more inspiring candidate is desperately needed. Doing it like this is a big risk that isn't really justified.

They will never intervene because there is no progressive challenger to stop at all costs because they might not get people too excited. That's the only time people like that care about engineering the outcome.

"Saving the election" is not really important in this case because there is nobody to gatekeep, which is what matters more. I've also observed constant "moving of the goalposts" over the years; they apparently can only ever afford to do this in certain circumstances. Note that these people always turn into hapless boobs in the general.

There, I said it.
 
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Virtual ghost

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They will never intervene because there is no progressive challenger to stop at all costs because they might people too excited. That's the only time people like that care about engineering the outcome.

"Saving the election" is not really important in this case because there is nobody to gatekeep.

There, I said it.


Yeah, I know.
But in that case they should really stop with 24/7 reporting on how dangerous is Trump. Since with this kind of polling result it is evident that there has to be completely different game plan. So if you don't make changes regarding what is evidently wrong you are basically just drama queen at the end of the day.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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Yeah, I know.
But in that case they should really stop with 24/7 reporting on how dangerous is Trump. Since with this kind of polling result it is evident that there has to be completely different game plan. So if you don't make changes regarding what is evidently wrong you are basically just drama queen at the end of the day.
Reporting on Trump won't change because it drives ratings up.
 

Virtual ghost

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RCP latest polls



In the last minute polls for primaries Trump has 16 to 27 point lead in NH. Depending on if DeSantis is still included in the game. But if Trump wins by over 20 the game is surely over tomorrow.



However there is something that is probably more "interesting" in polls.
New York: Biden +9

From time to time they make this poll and it always seems to have similar result, which is actually deeply problematic for the Democrats. The problem is that Biden won the state by 23 points in 2020. So if the state is kinda competitive that could drain plenty of time and money for the Democrats (since it is big state). Plus this puts plenty of house seats into open play. After all this is original home state of Trump and local governor is fairly unpopular from what I understand. What makes the state kinda competitive and that is big strategic problem for the Dems, if this actually becomes the case.
 

SensEye

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Don't trust those polls at all. Trump's legal problems certainly haven't hurt him in the primaries. And lots of polls show Haley with a large lead over Biden if they went head to head. So Republicans don't even seem to want to insure a victory for their party as I think Haley would deliver that. Republicans seem dead set on Trump and I don't think legal problems will really change the minds of any of his fans. I mean, if a voter hasn't figured out Trump's true character by now, I doubt a court decision will change their mind.

Also, I doubt any actual convictions will come before the election. So even if it looks bad for Trump, if he wins, all his problems will go away as he can just have the justice department drop all the cases against him (plus all those weird US rules that allow the sitting President to be legally immune to just about everything).
 

Virtual ghost

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Don't trust those polls at all. Trump's legal problems certainly haven't hurt him in the primaries. And lots of polls show Haley with a large lead over Biden if they went head to head. So Republicans don't even seem to want to insure a victory for their party as I think Haley would deliver that. Republicans seem dead set on Trump and I don't think legal problems will really change the minds of any of his fans. I mean, if a voter hasn't figured out Trump's true character by now, I doubt a court decision will change their mind.

Also, I doubt any actual convictions will come before the election. So even if it looks bad for Trump, if he wins, all his problems will go away as he can just have the justice department drop all the cases against him (plus all those weird US rules that allow the sitting President to be legally immune to just about everything).


Go a little bit back and you will see me posting actual polls where he should take elections pretty easy. (in other words I don't want to be a doomer so I post diversity of opinions)

But yes, Biden is also losing a fare share of the left demographic, so this can easily equalize. After all this factor could easily benefit Republicans since they are much more loyal voters. Plus the media in general are indeed trying to show that Trump is in bigger problems than he really is. Even my local news are doing it and I am thousands of miles from nearest US border. But as I said I don't want to be a complete doomer over this issue. However my gut feeling is that he going to win. In 2016 I was correct about this and I now I am probably as well. As you can see from the other thread I have a nose for people that are in "desperate times, desperate measures" mindset.
 

Virtual ghost

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I saw that various media claim that Haley wants to play the game at least until Super Tuesday (March 5th).

What kinda makes sense, especially if the current vote will be around 10% difference.
 
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