Trump vs. Biden

[ceecee]

I'd like to remind everyone of FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus model of the 2016 election:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Although we might forget, the months leading up to election day were particularly volatile, with the probability of a Clinton win somewhere between 54.6% and 85.3% depending upon the news cycle. I remember feeling like whichever candidate was in the news more during any given cycle would take a hit to their poll numbers. Both candidates were historically unpopular, and I think the election could have gone either way. If, for example, people voted right after the Access Hollywood tape I think Trump would have lost. Instead, they voted shortly after the investigation into Clinton's e-mails was reopened.

The average from June thru November put her at a 70% likelihood of winning, and Trump at a 30% likelihood. This is close to a 1 in 3 chance for a Trump win. This is going to be important for accurately gauging the state of the 2020 election once their model is released.

There is also a similar looking model released for the 2020 election by The Economist, which currently give's Joe Biden a 93% chance of winning. Back in March, that same model put the race as a dead-heat.

Forecasting the US 2020 elections | The Economist

The back-tested version of The Economist's model gave Obama a 93.7% chance of winning in 2008 and a 74.8% chance of winning in 2012, and gave Clinton a 73.1% chance of winning in 2016 (roughly in-line with FiveThirtyEight's final likelihood). Right now, the 2020 election, according to the model, looks more like 2008 than 2012 or 2016. But even in 2008, at some point John McCain took the lead in the polls, if only very briefly.

But Trump's betting odds are creeping up, I was told.

Betting Odds For Biden Winning Election Are Now Higher Than Trump’s Have Ever Been

Trump traded at 34% on the site Tuesday, a steep drop from when he last led Biden on May 29, trading at 47%.

Trump's Election Odds Fade (Again); Biden Sets New All-Time Best at -175

Joe Biden is now a -175 favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential election, his shortest odds yet
Incumbent Donald Trump has slumped to +150? Can The Donald rally before Americans go to the polls on Nov. 3rd?
See how the odds have shifted over the last week and why

oh....

 

[Jonny]

But Trump's betting odds are creeping up, I was told.

Betting Odds For Biden Winning Election Are Now Higher Than Trump’s Have Ever Been



Trump's Election Odds Fade (Again); Biden Sets New All-Time Best at -175



oh....

I often like to break down posts into bullet points, because I think it provides a clearer context for any "facts" that might make there way in. For example, the post you're referencing, where the OP mentioned that Trump's betting odds are creeping up, can be summarized as follows (with the fact in question bolded):

• Trump's betting odds of winning are creeping up.
• Trump is unpopular, but a stronger candidate than Biden.
• I have a sneaking suspicion Trump will win.
• I half-hope Trump wins again.
• The economy will be a lot stronger if Trump wins.
• The George Floyd insanity is helping Trump by offsetting the pandemic issue.
• The left is going full tilt crazy and it will help Trump win.
• The left's narrative and attitudes are unpalatable.
• I'm well off enough that the dem economy wouldn't kill me.
• I'm tired of my leftist friends being so depressed and angry.
• I'm excited for this years late night election viewing in November.

I'm not arguing for or against the bolded statement, though if I look at RCP average Biden's current betting odds as of today are literally the highest they've ever been. There are, afterall, other sources of information, and personally I would expect the odds to fall again partly because of how 2016 went (though I'm know my intuition is distorted and not fact-based in this regard).

However, what seems clear to me from this breakdown is that the post in question was not really meant to convey a fact, or inform others, or even really communicate with anyone. It was a catharsis. Like all of us, this person doesn't like the current state of politics and is constructing a world within this post that makes them feel better.

While at first glance a misstated fact might make us feel angry or agitated, if we can breakdown why a person might be saying such a thing it can open the door to compassion and understanding.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

The Iowa electronic markets are everything. They’ve accurately predicted every popular vote winner since their inception.

 

[Jaguar]

I think a lot of the George Floyd insanity is helping him out

Then you wouldn't mind if I watched a cop kneel on your neck until you died and do nothing about it, right?

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

I see Trumps betting odds at winning the election have started to creep back up after a long descent. Be curious to see if that trend continues. Despite his unpopularity he's still a stronger candidate than Biden, so I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to win it again. But we will see. I think a lot of the George Floyd insanity is helping him out, offsetting the pandemic issues. If they left wasn't kind enough to go full tilt crazy before 2016 he probably wouldn't have won, so it's thoughtful of them to run with the same playbook of reminding everyone how unpalatable their narrative and attitudes are.

Either way, who else is as excited as me for this years late night election viewing in November?

I half hope he wins again, just because I know the economy will be a lot stronger if he does, but I'm well off enough now where a dem economy wouldn't kill me- and I'm tired of seeing my leftist friends so depressed and angry all the time. Might be time to throw them a bone.

Biden's a status quo candidate, hardly the far left extremist Tucker Carlson and Ben Shapiro may have led you to believe he is, you probably have little to worry about if he wins. Business as usual.

 

[anticlimatic]

Biden's a status quo candidate, hardly the far left extremist Tucker Carlson and Ben Shapiro may have led you to believe he is, you probably have little to worry about if he wins. Business as usual.

I know, that's why I'm mostly ok either way.

 

[Jonny]

This day in history:

 

[Peter Deadpan]

<unsubscribe>

 

[Maou]

WW3 with China when?

 

[Jonny]

WW3 with China when?

Don’t even joke. What a nightmare that would be.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Don’t even joke. What a nightmare that would be.

Not at all, since it would quite quick and painless.


This is exactly why I place may cards on cold war 2.0. Since that is much much more realistic, regardless of who really wins in November.

 

[Maou]

Don’t even joke. What a nightmare that would be.

Just shoot one missle at TGD, and USA wins again.

 

[Jaguar]

Biden to announce Veep next week.

 

[Maou]

His VP pick is a heck of a lot more important than him. Lets face it, they will take over for him. I have my money on Warren or Rice.

 

[Jonny]

His VP pick is a heck of a lot more important than him. Lets face it, they will take over for him. I have my money on Warren or Rice.

Perry at 538 said he thinks it’ll be one of the three in order, Kamala Harris > Susan Rice > Elizabeth Warren, and he would be shocked by anyone else.

Personally, I like Duckworth because on the surface she represents the hardest to vilify by the right. But that’s where my headspace is. For me, it really is about getting Trump out before anything else. I’d take Mike Pence as Biden’s VP pick if it meant Trump is out.

If I were basing my decision on who I liked most, I’d pick either Warren or Rice. I think they’re both great. Kamala Harris just isn’t exciting to me.

 

[Jaguar]

His VP pick is a heck of a lot more important than him. Lets face it, they will take over for him.

Just when I think you can't sound any more like you're posting drunk, you do.

 

[Maou]

Perry at 538 said he thinks it’ll be one of the three in order, Kamala Harris > Susan Rice > Elizabeth Warren, and he would be shocked by anyone else.

Personally, I like Duckworth because on the surface she represents the hardest to vilify by the right. But that’s where my headspace is. For me, it really is about getting Trump out before anything else. I’d take Mike Pence as Biden’s VP pick if it meant Trump is out.

If I were basing my decision on who I liked most, I’d pick either Warren or Rice. I think they’re both great. Kamala Harris just isn’t exciting to me.

Yeah Duckworth was noteworthy when I glanced through the list. I tend to favor military people by default. But I don't know anything about her personality or her positions yet.

Just when I think you can't sound any more like you're posting drunk, you do.

How do I sound drunk lol? Wouldn't that require more typos? Also, Biden literally can't say anything coherant and on track without talking about children rubbing on his leg hair. I think he has the onset of dementia. I wouldn't be surprised if he was ruled unfit to run the country if he got elected. At best, he will be a puppet president if he literally doesn't die or become bedridden. I don't think that is a far-fetched idea after everything we've seen this year.

 

[Jonny]

Also, Biden literally can't say anything coherant and on track without talking about children rubbing on his leg hair. I think he has the onset of dementia. I wouldn't be surprised if he was ruled unfit to run the country if he got elected. At best, he will be a puppet president if he literally doesn't die or become bedridden. I don't think that is a far-fetched idea after everything we've seen this year.

I think you're mistaken in this assessment. If you care to, I would encourage you to find an unedited interview and pick a random spot to sample. I'll go first.

I'm going to google Biden full interview and pick the first result that is a complete interview. And, since this post came in at 5:31 my time, I'm going to pick 5:31 in.

Here's what I came up with:

Watch CNBC's full interview with former Vice President Joe Biden - YouTube minute 5:31

His answers seem more comprehensive and coherent than Trump's, in my opinion.

Do a few more if you'd like a more realistic understanding.

But, ultimately we'll see what happens at the debates. Frankly, I'm not worried. I think Trump will try to bully Biden and will try to sling mud (rather than talk substance), and Biden will just have to be prepared to not take the bait.

 

[Maou]

I think you're mistaken in this assessment. If you care to, I would encourage you to find an unedited interview and pick a random spot to sample. I'll go first.

I'm going to google Biden full interview and pick the first result that is longer that is a complete interview. And, since your post came in at 5:38 my time, I'm going to pick 5:38 in.

Here's what I came up with:

Watch CNBC's full interview with former Vice President Joe Biden - YouTube minute 5:32

Do a few more.

His answers seem more comprehensive and coherent than Trump's, in my opinion.

I was mostly speaking overall, in my opinion. Not even comparing him to the president. He has his cohesive moments.

My impression is that every time I have heard him speak for extended periods, he goes off on tangents. Some of them being really fucking creepy. Some are straight up insulting. I know most people will vote for him simply because he is a Democrat, but Jesus I rather have Sanders over him.

 

[Jonny]

I was mostly speaking overall, in my opinion. Not even comparing him to the president. He has his cohesive moments.

My impression is that every time I have heard him speak for extended periods, he goes off on tangents. Some of them being really fucking creepy. Some are straight up insulting. I know most people will vote for him simply because he is a Democrat, but Jesus I rather have Sanders over him.

Have you heard Donald speak?

Look, Democrats picked Biden because he was the compromise candidate who they thought would be palatable to middle-of-the-road folk and disenchanted Republicans. You say you'd prefer Sanders, I would have too, but I don't think you're being honest with yourself. If Sanders had won and Biden had lost, you may very well be saying that Sanders is unacceptable and that you'd have preferred Biden.

I want Trump gone. He just isn't acceptable. I would have supported anyone running before supporting Trump. If you told me Tulsi Gabbard was a shoe in for the general election and that you'd support her, I would have gladly voted for her. Anyone but the man currently in office.

Just my 2 cents.