Trump vs. Biden

[Jaguar]

Yes, but there is practical problem with the cartoon things. He was elected exactly as a cartoon, that is exactly what made him electable.
Therefore after a certain point you are actually making him look either as a victim or a joke that can pass again. Since many vote on "impulse" or what not.

People don't stand in line for 6 hours just to be impulsive.

 

[Virtual ghost]

People don't stand in line for 6 hours just to be impulsive.

I think you got my point.
Although "having their own simplistic reasoning" was perhaps better choice of words, but I didn't want to complicate.



Side note: 6 hours !? To me after 6 minutes the show is evolving into bad organization. I don't think I ever waited longer than that (COVID included).

 

[ceecee]

Yes, but there is practical problem with the cartoon things. He was elected exactly as a cartoon, that is exactly what made him electable.
Therefore after a certain point you are actually making him look either as a victim or a joke that can pass again. Since many vote on "impulse" or what not.

He is a victim. His supporters are also victims, as are most conservatives. Reactive, knee jerk, paranoid and hateful. It's their bread and butter and conservative politicians have used it with success for a long time. Trump never got the memo on how to moderate his victim hood so, people are simply tired of hearing how unfairly he's been treated. It no longer matters if it's true or not. When people mute the volume on TV as to not hear him speak - you know he has bigger issues than looking like a cartoon.

 

[Virtual ghost]

He is a victim. His supporters are also victims, as are most conservatives. Reactive, knee jerk, paranoid and hateful. It's their bread and butter and conservative politicians have used it with success for a long time. Trump never got the memo on how to moderate his victim hood so, people are simply tired of hearing how unfairly he's been treated. It no longer matters if it's true or not. When people mute the volume on TV as to not hear him speak - you know he has bigger issues than looking like a cartoon.

Yeah, but towards polls he is still within striking distance of winning. The pandemic will probably end his chances on the long run but I am simply against trivialization of the situation.

 

[ceecee]

Yeah, but towards polls he is still within striking distance of winning. The pandemic will probably end his chances on the long run but I am simply against trivialization of the situation.

I agree, I don't take any of this for granted.

However, I saw the first big union endorsement for Biden today although, unless it's a police union, there really is no other endorsement choice.

 

[Jaguar]

I think you got my point.
Although "having their own simplistic reasoning" was perhaps better choice of words, but I didn't want to complicate.



Side note: 6 hours !? To me after 6 minutes the show is evolving into bad organization. I don't think I ever waited longer than that (COVID included).

Well, the problem is they have wiped out a huge number of locations to vote in the states due to the pandemic. That means huge lines and huge wait times. As much as I want to vote in person this year, I will likely mail in my vote. I can track it online and know it's been received with a bar code assigned to my name. When I saw that was an option this year, I was fine with the security of my vote. But not everyone in this country has the option to mail in their vote. It varies from state to state.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, the problem is they have wiped out a huge number of locations to vote in the states due to the pandemic. That means huge lines and huge wait times. As much as I want to vote in person this year, I will likely mail in my vote. I can track it online and know it's been received with a bar code assigned to my name. When I saw that was an option this year, I was fine with the security of my vote. But not everyone in this country has the option to mail in their vote. It varies from state to state.

That isn't really rational (or fair). With this they are only creating more of a crowd if you can't vote by mail in your state.

 

[ceecee]

That isn't really rational (or fair). With this they are only creating more of a crowd if you can't vote by mail in your state.

It's voter suppression - sudden closure of voting locations is something the GOP has done consistently. Kentucky just had an election and 95% of their locations closed a couple weeks before the election.

A New Voting Crisis: Kentucky Closes 95% of Polling Places, Leaving Louisville with Just One | Democracy Now!

The Voting Rights Act was gutted some time ago so the dual issue of no central voting system and Republican run states legislatures is the reason for this.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It's voter suppression - sudden closure of voting locations is something the GOP has done consistently. Kentucky just had an election and 95% of their locations closed a couple weeks before the election.

A New Voting Crisis: Kentucky Closes 95% of Polling Places, Leaving Louisville with Just One | Democracy Now!

The Voting Rights Act was gutted some time ago so the dual issue of no central voting system and Republican run states legislatures is the reason for this.

I know very well what it is. Here for such a systemic "mess" you would get heads rolling if this doesn't get sanctioned and undone. Here if there are even serious suspicions of a election fraud at the voting location the elections are repeated on that spot. While all locations are static so you don't have to search for them and elections are controlled by judges, not political parties.

 

[Jaguar]

I know very well what it is. Here for such a systemic "mess" you would get heads rolling if this doesn't get sanctioned and undone. Here if there are even serious suspicions of a election fraud at the voting location the elections are repeated on that spot. While all locations are static so you don't have to search for them and elections are controlled by judges, not political parties.

I'm concerned about general stupidity like not realizing you need to sign your name, mail it early enough, or not following instructions and getting their vote tossed out.

States reject tens of thousands of mail ballots in this year's primaries, setting off alarm bells for November

 

[Virtual ghost]

I'm concerned about general stupidity like not realizing you need to sign your name, mail it early enough, or not following instructions and getting their vote tossed out.

The only way to cure the first is making sure that everyone one knows the deadline for their state. While the second is slolved though making sure instructions are available and they are clear.
After that it is in "God's hands".

 

[ceecee]

I know very well what it is. Here for such a systemic "mess" you would get heads rolling if this doesn't get sanctioned and undone. Here if there are even serious suspicions of a election fraud at the voting location the elections are repeated on that spot. While all locations are static so you don't have to search for them and elections are controlled by judges, not political parties.

That's part of the issue of course. The other is that the amount of people who have never voted before would blow your mind. Middle aged, elderly, young, it doesn't matter. They have no idea how to vote and this has been going on for so long, they feel that learning now isn't going to matter.

Me personally I vote by mail. I drive it to my township office and I place it in the clerks hand. No mail, I absolutely don't trust anyone.

 

[Jaguar]

.

 

[Totenkindly]

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I kind of kept expecting Kramer to be trimming hedges in the background, then wigging out when Trump talks about elephants and lopping off a prized topiary before skulking away...

 

[anticlimatic]

I see Trumps betting odds at winning the election have started to creep back up after a long descent. Be curious to see if that trend continues. Despite his unpopularity he's still a stronger candidate than Biden, so I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to win it again. But we will see. I think a lot of the George Floyd insanity is helping him out, offsetting the pandemic issues. If they left wasn't kind enough to go full tilt crazy before 2016 he probably wouldn't have won, so it's thoughtful of them to run with the same playbook of reminding everyone how unpalatable their narrative and attitudes are.

Either way, who else is as excited as me for this years late night election viewing in November?

I half hope he wins again, just because I know the economy will be a lot stronger if he does, but I'm well off enough now where a dem economy wouldn't kill me- and I'm tired of seeing my leftist friends so depressed and angry all the time. Might be time to throw them a bone.

 

[Doctor Cringelord]

I’ve just recently given up on talking politics with anyone. Tired of right wingers’ disregard for facts and sharing of conspiracy theories founded on junk science (whilst dismissing any science they dislike as fake news or part of a globalist conspiracy). Tired of petty purity tests missing the forest for the trees from my left wing friends. Tired of the same complacency and treatment of presidential elections as little more than sports playoffs from the moderates and centrists. They can all go to hell.

 

[Jonny]

I'd like to remind everyone of FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus model of the 2016 election:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Although we might forget, the months leading up to election day were particularly volatile, with the probability of a Clinton win somewhere between 54.6% and 85.3% depending upon the news cycle. I remember feeling like whichever candidate was in the news more during any given cycle would take a hit to their poll numbers. Both candidates were historically unpopular, and I think the election could have gone either way. If, for example, people voted right after the Access Hollywood tape I think Trump would have lost. Instead, they voted shortly after the investigation into Clinton's e-mails was reopened.

The average from June thru November put her at a 70% likelihood of winning, and Trump at a 30% likelihood. This is close to a 1 in 3 chance for a Trump win. This is going to be important for accurately gauging the state of the 2020 election once their model is released.

There is also a similar looking model released for the 2020 election by The Economist, which currently give's Joe Biden a 93% chance of winning. Back in March, that same model put the race as a dead-heat.

Forecasting the US 2020 elections | The Economist

The back-tested version of The Economist's model gave Obama a 93.7% chance of winning in 2008 and a 74.8% chance of winning in 2012, and gave Clinton a 73.1% chance of winning in 2016 (roughly in-line with FiveThirtyEight's final likelihood). Right now, the 2020 election, according to the model, looks more like 2008 than 2012 or 2016. But even in 2008, at some point John McCain took the lead in the polls, if only very briefly.

 

[Jaguar]

I've never forgotten the poll that suggested one of the most hated women in U.S. politics was going to "whoop" Trump's ass.

 

[Jonny]

I've never forgotten the poll that suggested one of the most hated women in U.S. politics was going to "whoop" Trump's ass.

Curious, what were your feelings about the 2016 election? Were you a reluctant Clinton voter or did you abstain/vote 3rd party? I was the only person in my family to vote for Clinton. My mom voted for Trump, my dad wrote in Mitt Romney (but only after I begged him not to vote for Trump), my stepmom wrote in Bernie Sanders, and my siblings abstained.

 

[Jaguar]

Curious, what were your feelings about the 2016 election?

A clusterfuck. I did not vote.