Trump vs. Biden

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Don't you dare lump me in with that. I'll fucking stab you. AND unfriend you!

With what? Norms?

 

[Peter Deadpan]

With what? Norms?

Yes.

 

[Udog]

Weren't they telling us a Hillary victory was inevitable last time at this point?

Yeah. Not hard to imagine Trump is within striking distance come October.

Although people don't seem to passionately hate Biden like they did Hillary. Guess that's a plus for Biden?

 

[Jaguar]

.

 

[Jonny]

Yeah. Not hard to imagine Trump is within striking distance come October.

Although people don't seem to passionately hate Biden like they did Hillary. Guess that's a plus for Biden?

Below is a comparison of key polls between 2016 and 2020. I think the most frightening thing for Trump should be Florida. Biden has been pretty consistently ahead in the polls there compared to Clinton who was pretty consistently behind in 2016. It's hard to see how Trump would win without Florida. He'd have to sweep every other swing state.

Plus, there were huge swings in the polls in 2016, where it would routinely oscillate between Clinton up by 5-10 and close to tied or Trump up by a bit...it happened at least 5 times over the course of the year. Exit polls from election night showed that undecided voters broke for Trump by large margins. By all accounts, it was an election between two hated candidates where people decided to go with the "unknown" Trump on election day, possibly because of a recent negative news cycle for Clinton. This time around, Biden's lead has been pretty stable, and Trump has a track record in office. People know what they get with him, and I think most people don't like it. I just don't see the same thing happening this time around.

For Trump to win there would need to be a fundamental change in the election (which could absolutely still happen). But based on the way things are now, it is highly unlikely that things would go his way.

 

[ceecee]

Below is a comparison of key polls between 2016 and 2020. I think the most frightening thing for Trump should be Florida. Biden has been pretty consistently ahead in the polls there compared to Clinton who was pretty consistently behind in 2016. It's hard to see how Trump would win without Florida. He'd have to sweep every other swing state.

Plus, there were huge swings in the polls in 2016, where it would routinely oscillate between Clinton up by 5-10 and close to tied or Trump up by a bit...it happened at least 5 times over the course of the year. Exit polls from election night showed that undecided voters broke for Trump by large margins. By all accounts, it was an election between two hated candidates where people decided to go with the "unknown" Trump on election day, possibly because of a recent negative news cycle for Clinton. This time around, Biden's lead has been pretty stable, and Trump has a track record in office. People know what they get with him, and I think most people don't like it. I just don't see the same thing happening this time around.

For Trump to win there would need to be a fundamental change in the election (which could absolutely still happen). But based on the way things are now, it is highly unlikely that things would go his way.

I haven't met an undecided voter. I mean they poll as undecided but if you ask them they're not unsure about what and who they're voting for. I think that's a bigger factor this time around than it was with Trump. I also don't think the stay at home protest vote is going to happen in the numbers anyone is predicting, even on the left. If Biden comes out with one or two more big proposals like the one he just did, it will help even more.

Biden reveals $2 trillion climate plan that's also an infrastructure and jobs plan | Autoblog

The only people I've heard criticizing it are the fossil fuel industry and Fox News. I take that as a positive. It doesn't go as far as what the Sunrise kids want but it also goes much further than what Nancy Pelosi proposed.

I lol at the person who asks how it will be paid for. I don't care, no one should after all that's happened.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Biden reveals $2 trillion climate plan that's also an infrastructure and jobs plan | Autoblog

The only people I've heard criticizing it are the fossil fuel industry and Fox News. I take that as a positive. It doesn't go as far as what the Sunrise kids want but it also goes much further than what Nancy Pelosi proposed.

I just want to add that Europe's alliance of center right conservatives is fully on board with our Green plan and openly advocates for it. Therefore this topic isn't just a simple partisan hoax. This is something that really needs to be done and advanced further over time for the sake of the people.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Yeah. Not hard to imagine Trump is within striking distance come October.

Although people don't seem to passionately hate Biden like they did Hillary. Guess that's a plus for Biden?

Maybe.

Basically, we're still too far out from the election for polls and models to mean much. Sorry to pour cold water on everyone, but it grinds my gears to see everyone falling for it again. Does everyone really want to have a sudden meltdown again if they're all wrong? At least prepare yourself mentally.

 

[Jaguar]

Sorry to pour cold water on everyone

No one is listening to you anyway. No worries.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Maybe.

Basically, we're still too far out from the election for polls and models to mean much. Sorry to pour cold water on everyone, but it grinds my gears to see everyone falling for it again. Does everyone really want to have a sudden meltdown again if they're all wrong? At least prepare yourself mentally.

My thoughts exactly. This isn't over until it is over. Trump will probably lose but he shouldn't be underestimated openly if you are his opponent.
Not to mention that people actually have to vote, otherwise all those polls and talking point mean nothing.

 

[Jaguar]

Brace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
Even with a surge in overall participation, white working-class voters could still remain decisive in the 2020 election.

2020 Election: Voter Turnout Could Be Record-Breaking - The Atlantic

 

[Udog]

My concerns:

1. Once you factor in electoral college and margin of error, Biden's lead may not be as large as it looks. If Biden gets to the +5/+6 territory this election can get really close. [MENTION=9251]Jonny[/MENTION]'s post provided some insight though about how much of an outlier that scenario really could be, so that's cool.

2. Trump is basically teflon. Will Biden have a similar ability once some scandal comes out late in the election?

 

[rav3n]

Maybe.

Basically, we're still too far out from the election for polls and models to mean much. Sorry to pour cold water on everyone, but it grinds my gears to see everyone falling for it again. Does everyone really want to have a sudden meltdown again if they're all wrong? At least prepare yourself mentally.

You're not taking into consideration what happened in 2016, that Comey was dumb enough to fall for bullshit, hence inadvertently helped to tank HRC at the last minute. Prior to Comey's statement, HRC had the lead.

 

[Virtual ghost]

You're not taking into consideration what happened in 2016, that Comey was dumb enough to fall for bullshit, hence inadvertently helped to tank HRC at the last minute. Prior to Comey's statement, HRC had the lead.

True, but Trump can once again organize something like this. From Ukraine to something new or made up. Therefore certain people simply shouldn't be too quick in judging that this is 100% over if they want to make sure their side wins. Pandemic can greatly depress the turnout in cold November, electoral college, closing of certain voting posts, another "unclear" vote in Florida, "problems" with apps, trolls will surely come out from the closets, surprise vaccine in October (maybe even fake one) ... in the case that Biden doesn't have the current lead he would probably be in trouble by realistic numbers. Since there is just too many ways how to tilt this game.

 

[rav3n]

True, but Trump can once again organize something like this. From Ukraine to something new or made up. Therefore certain people simply shouldn't be too quick in judging that this is 100% over if they want to make sure their side wins. Pandemic can greatly depress the turnout in cold November, electoral college, closing of certain voting posts, another "unclear" vote in Florida, "problems" with apps, trolls will surely come out from the closets, surprise vaccine in October (maybe even fake one) ... in the case that Biden doesn't have the current lead he would probably be in trouble by realistic numbers. Since there is just too many ways how to tilt this game.

That's why it's important to vote.

Being a negative nelly helps no one. Being too confident about the Dem win helps no one. Vote.

 

[Virtual ghost]

That's why it's important to vote.

Being a negative nelly helps no one. Being too confident about the Dem win helps no one. Vote.

My point exactly.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

My thoughts exactly. This isn't over until it is over. Trump will probably lose but he shouldn't be underestimated openly if you are his opponent.
Not to mention that people actually have to vote, otherwise all those polls and talking point mean nothing.

Hillary definitely underestimated him. I'm worried that Biden is going to do the same thing. His campaign is less "norm" focused than I thought it would be, so that's a good thing

 

[Virtual ghost]

Hillary definitely underestimated him. I'm worried that Biden is going to do the same thing. His campaign is less "norm" focused than I thought it would be, so that's a good thing.

Yes, he is doing better but there is still room for counter, especially the one that is in "bad faith".
Although how the pandemic is going that should simply end any real debate if this becomes the "new normal" for months. Especially since many swing states are hit quite hard. Or due to the pandemic some states are becoming swing states.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Yes, he is doing better but there is still room for counter, especially the one that is in "bad faith".
Although how the pandemic is going that should simply end any real debate if this becomes the "new normal" for months. Especially since many swing states are hit quite hard. Or due to the pandemic some states are becoming swing states.

I just remember Hillary ignoring the upper Midwest and trying to win Arizona and Georgia. Biden need to focus on the states he needs to do to win, and not waste time and resources trying to pick up "bonus" states because Trump is too unqualified to win.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I just remember Hillary ignoring the upper Midwest and trying to win Arizona and Georgia. Biden need to focus on the states he needs to do to win, and not waste time and resources trying to pick up "bonus" states because Trump is too unqualified to win.

Well, I think he will. Although many states could fall into his hands without any real effort. Trump still has a shoot but only if something good regarding the virus happens in the next month or maybe two. Otherwise there will be just too much mess that he would be a natural choice for the clear majority.



However in my book Trump simply doesn't have enough of a scientific and engineering mindset to turn this around and he generally keeps people who do at a distance. Right from the start I was fairly sure that his presidency will not live up to the expectation, since he didn't do two things in this domain. Start a massive remake of education system that will allow returning of the jobs in their current form and greatly increase infrastructure spending. Which is the only foundation on which you can re-industrialize the country. I am unsure how much of this is his fault and how much of the whole party but this is where the presidency actually went wrong. In the case that this passed democrats would have only cheap ideological talk left as an option. In other words if the main campaign promise was set in motion today we would be living in some different world now.