Random Politics Thread

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

Yeap, I evidently watched this movie before (and all of it was projected in this post from mid September).
This campaign ended EXACTLY how I pictured it.

In other words since most here are having depression attacks over this campaign I didn't want to rock the boat too hard. But this was indeed possible to predict if you know where to look. The catch was that Biden was expected win popular vote by 7 points in 2020. However he won it only by 4 and swing states were won by point or less. While now Harris was projected to win popular vote by something like 1.5 points. What just wasn't enough by conventional wisdom. Therefore these 5 points of difference next to 2020 is what is sinking the ship across the country.


I know that this is difficult for everyone here but the situation is what it. The life goes on.

I had hoped you would be wrong because many pollsters were supposedly over correcting this time to account for Trump outperforming polls in the last two elections. I had also hoped Harris was going to get a lot of new support that wasn’t being captured in this year’s polling, so my hope was that might offset Trump’s unpolled support.

Sadly I was wrong and what we can take away from this lesson is that way too many Americans are comfortable with fascist strongmen in power. I don’t think all of the people who voted for Trump because of grocery prices will understand the ramifications of their choices

Trying to be optimistic because if the economy goes south before the next midterms, maybe Dems can retake both houses and then presidency un 2028, but I just have a sense of overwhelming existential dread, knowing now exactly what he wants to do and that these project 2025 fuckheads are waiting in the wings to enact their vision

 

[The Cat]

What burns me isnt the people who voted for trump for grocery prices or whatever. If they don't know any better at this point, they likely never will. What grinds my gears as the people who DID know better, who CLAIMED to understand the situation....and withheld their vote because they didnt get EVERYTHING they wanted. Where do they think will become of their idealistic causes now?

Ive considered for a long time now, that we're secretly an oligarchy wearing the skin of a democracy. Really want to be wrong on that one.

Whatever happens... Nobody Panic. As long as nobody panics...there's still hope for a better tomorrow.

​

 

[The Cat]

The Hour of the Wolf is gonna run long for a lot of folks today.
Sláinte.​

 

[Virtual ghost]

Yeap, I evidently watched this movie before (and all of it was projected in this post from mid September).
This campaign ended EXACTLY how I pictured it.

Rep: What gave it away where things are going ?
The basic fact that I am analytical enough to realize I am watching THE SAME movie all over again. In a sense you don't really have to be a genius to realize that the movie is repeating itself. Same dynamic, basically the same talking points, same campaign mistakes ... and quite similar situation out in the field. Plus on top of that you can add that in whole of Europe there are currently historic right wing gains in elections. While the problems out in the field are quite similar to the ones in US. Economy/inflation, immigration, too many wars, climate change is starting to bite, implementations of laws is more and more wobbly, ... etc. In a sense you would really have to be an idiot not to see the parallel.

I mean my post from two months ago was basically just a warning. However it isn't that someone on this forum was in real power to do something about it. So I suppose we can treat that post as an "anecdote".


But here I will truly stop.
Especially because I am removing all the polls and similar pages out of bookmarks. Since my focus of interest has to change. We have what we have, what was done was done.

 

[SensEye]

I'm not particularly surprised by this outcome either. Things started looking bleak a couple of years back when it was obvious Biden was no longer mentally competent. He should have stood down and the Dems should have had an open primary back then. I don't know who would have won that, but I am almost certain it would not have been Harris. I can't say for sure that a more palatable centrist candidate would have derailed Trumpism, but I think it probably would have.

The economy was a big issue. It's true that most of the inflation was pandemic related and would have happened regardless of who was in the white house, but that average voter doesn't know that, and so much more focus should have been made on the Dems side about making change in that regard (including a complete replacement of the Biden/Harris ticket). They stuck to Bidenomics by and large, and that didn't play out well.

Don't even get me started on immigration.

As VG mentioned, the Dems ran pretty much on reproductive rights and fear of fascism. And to be honest, I thought it would be enough to squeak them through. It wasn't sufficient though. I mentioned on multiple occasions I would have been all in for Nikki Haley, implying I had little good to say about Biden/Harris governance. Remove Trump and the fascism fears and I would have been fine with a change in party in charge. Alas, with Trump, those fascism/democracy worries persist.

And poor Ukraine. I hope the EU steps up, but I have low expectations on that front too.

 

[Lark]

Trump's victory just makes me think of the end of the Night Crawler movie, were bizarrely these people the guy mistreated terribly began to worship him for some reason.

Anyway, I think the rot exists at every single level of society, all around the world and I dont know what can or will arrest it anymore, it'll just get worse and worse and the world wont be able to self-correct because instead of saying they cant have this anymore they'll decide the only problem is they just havent had enough yet.

Its really sado-masochistic, insight's not enough to correct it, and the people cant get enough of voting some already obscenely rich guy and his obscenely rich buddies another yacht.

This started a long time ago in Russia and its just bled out from there, infected everything and everyone, from the highest office to the smallest workplace where the hard of understanding will take their lead from what they see on reality TV.

 

[Vendrah]

we're secretly an oligarchy wearing the skin of a democracy

Depends on what you understand as oligarchy.

Economy/inflation, immigration, too many wars, climate change is starting to bite, implementations of laws is more and more wobbly,

Well, let me ask: How Trump is about climate change and global warming? I guess he doesn't care or denies, right?
Because II don't know how much you guys are seeing, but we are either globally doomed already or we are very close to reach that point.
Goal for 2015-2016, Paris, was 2.0 CO2 tons per person per year.
Then the IA perplexity said when I was asked about another goal after that, a study had 1.1 CO2 tons per person.
And in 2023 they appeared with "zero net emissions" that, although it is different, it is in practice a little bit more than 0 CO2 per person.
There are CO2 calculators and 1.1 is incredibly small. My power usage plus eating and basic things gets me a little bit more than 1.x and I am at around 1.4 at the moment.
I think, although that was never said directly, the zero is a sign that it is getting on the reversible point. I am aware net zero have CO2 capture implicit.

US is one of the major influencers and polluters. If it is not late now, 2029 will definitely be too late (he mandates 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028, right?).

 

[Virtual ghost]

And poor Ukraine. I hope the EU steps up, but I have low expectations on that front too.

I am afraid that this isn't as simple as some are picturing it.
Ukraine is barely post totalitarian state and that means that it's civilians have "teeth". If that isn't the case the war would be over by now. After all the west started to openly help after it saw that Ukraine is holding the full scale invasion in the first days. Even if Russians send new 300 000 troops there is something like 40 000 000 Ukrainians waiting for them (ratio 1:100 if you count only grown ups). Not to mention that the place is about two times the size of Texas. Therefore it is absolutely impossible to truly control the area if the locals don't play along. If anything supply lines will turn into a problem if the area is this big and hostile. As I explained in the early days of the war: Russians will simply get lost in the maze. Therefore if US help stops that basically only means returning to the original plan of defense. So what EU provides could be enough, even if there will be more loss of life. After all in a way that is what western help is trying to prevent. After all Ukraine is "all in" in current situation, they will either save their country or go extinct either way. Since complete surrendering means cultural assimilation (what can already be seen in occupied areas).

While in reality it is more likely that financial support for Ukraine will be fully pushed on EU and other allies. While US will continue to provide military support, since with that it is pumping money into it's own industry. But who knows, maybe Trump will indeed manage to freeze the war on the existing lines ... and that will be it. Not 100% ideal solution but that would kinda do it. I mean there are far worse scenarios than this one.

Plus there is one more element of the story about which no one thinks about. Trump has openly said that he will fight China on various ways since "China is a fundamental threat to US". But there is catch in that: it is kinda obvious that Russia can't keep up like this without open help from China in the terms of money and resources. However if Trump messes up China with tariffs and diplomacy it is becoming questionable if China will have money, resources and time to throw at Ukraine. Also Trump has defined himself as very pro Israel and thus he thinks that Iran needs to be though a lesson. However Iran just like China is open supplier of equipment to Russia that is burning plenty of it in Ukraine. Therefore without the help of it's allies Russia probably wouldn't be able to keep doing what it is doing. Especially if EU keeps sending support to Ukraine as it is. So indirectly things might sort themselves out in the end. If current events have proven anything that is evidently "it isn't over until it is over".


As I said the question of Ukraine is much much more complicated question than people think. Since this is genuine geopolitical puzzle that is full of loose ends. Every change is opening some new scenarios.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, let me ask: How Trump is about climate change and global warming? I guess he doesn't care or denies, right?
Because II don't know how much you guys are seeing, but we are either globally doomed already or we are very close to reach that point.
Goal for 2015-2016, Paris, was 2.0 CO2 tons per person per year.
Then the IA perplexity said when I was asked about another goal after that, a study had 1.1 CO2 tons per person.
And in 2023 they appeared with "zero net emissions" that, although it is different, it is in practice a little bit more than 0 CO2 per person.
There are CO2 calculators and 1.1 is incredibly small. My power usage plus eating and basic things gets me a little bit more than 1.x and I am at around 1.4 at the moment.
I think, although that was never said directly, the zero is a sign that it is getting on the reversible point. I am aware net zero have CO2 capture implicit.

US is one of the major influencers and polluters. If it is not late now, 2029 will definitely be too late (he mandates 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028, right?).

To be honest this is in my book the biggest practical problem with Trump. He doesn't understand the problem and we are basically already out of time. However since most of the world doesn't really care about the topic I kinda gave up in this. What happens happens. Results of the elections only confirm this is done deal.

 

[Vendrah]

To be honest this is in my book the biggest practical problem with Trump. He doesn't understand the problem and we are basically already out of time. However since most of the world doesn't really care about the topic I kinda gave up in this. What happens happens. Results of the elections only confirm this is done deal.

I am sure you are well informed about the good predictions of what it happens, its a disaster and it is sad in the least.

 

[SensEye]

As I said the question of Ukraine is much much more complicated question than people think. Since this is genuine geopolitical puzzle that is full of loose ends. Every change is opening some new scenarios.

True enough. Still feel bad for them though. A free democratic country will likely be on hold for some time.

I think phase 1 will just be and end to hostilities with Ukraine having to give up lost territories (so Trump can claim to be a peacemaker). Ukraine can protest this but without military aid it's probably the best deal they will get. In phase 2 I think Putin will insist on a pre-maidan state of affairs with a Russian installed puppet government (or Russia will re-invade after re-arming). That might also depend on the state of affairs in the US in 2028 (i.e. a fair election or a pre ordained Republican win).

Just my guess, my crystal ball is as cloudy as the next guys.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I am sure you are well informed about the good predictions of what it happens, its a disaster and it is sad in the least.

Of course I am. I wrote some the most detailed explanation on the topic when it comes to this forum.
However I just don't really see how to fix this on time anymore. If everyone in the world would understood the problem than just maybe it would be possible to act on time. However with current global instability on top of everything I just don't see the path forward. Therefore I am taking "what happens happens" position.

 

[SensEye]

I'm a bit surprised Trump won the popular vote.

In 2020 it was 81.2m for Biden vs 74.2 m for Trump. In 2024 it's 61.7M Harris vs 72m Trump*. That's a serious drop off for the Dems. Wondering if this election was an issue of the Democrats not turning out to vote. It doesn't seem like Dems (or undecided) flipped to Trump as he got less than last time too. That leads me to wonder if the turnout was lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket or complacency. The latter would be a sad situation considering the importance of this election.

*I realize some votes are yet to be counted, but not millions I wouldn't think.

 

[Virtual ghost]

True enough. Still feel bad for them though. A free democratic country will likely be on hold for some time.

I think phase 1 will just be and end to hostilities with Ukraine having to give up lost territories (so Trump can claim to be a peacemaker). Ukraine can protest this but without military aid it's probably the best deal they will get. In phase 2 I think Putin will insist on a pre-maidan state of affairs with a Russian installed puppet government (or Russia will re-invade after re-arming). That might also depend on the state of affairs in the US in 2028 (i.e. a fair election or a pre ordained Republican win).

Just my guess, my crystal ball is as cloudy as the next guys.

From what I understand Ukraine is looking genuine independent from Russia for quite some time (for centuries to be exact). Therefore this story probably wouldn't end anytime soon either way. I mean if he requires puppet government Ukrainian people wouldn't accept that regardless of what Trump thinks about it. As I explained they are basically "all in" and all of this means that they will simple try to win the war on their own (if they have to). I really doubt they will stop unless they start to take brutal looses. However even surrender doesn't mean that there wouldn't be a new eruption for independence some 20 or 30 years from now. This is simply standard dynamic for the Slavic world. You disappear from the map for a few decades and when the time is right you organize uprising and again you are on the map of the world.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Trump and Macron discuss Ukraine, Middle East in first phone call


The talks are already openly on the table.
This surely wouldn't end with simplistic solution, the problem is just too complex.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

What burns me isnt the people who voted for trump for grocery prices or whatever. If they don't know any better at this point, they likely never will. What grinds my gears as the people who DID know better, who CLAIMED to understand the situation....and withheld their vote because they didnt get EVERYTHING they wanted. Where do they think will become of their idealistic causes now?

Ive considered for a long time now, that we're secretly an oligarchy wearing the skin of a democracy. Really want to be wrong on that one.

Whatever happens... Nobody Panic. As long as nobody panics...there's still hope for a better tomorrow.

​

Ugh I have not sympathy for protest voters who went third party because of Gaza. Kamala wasn’t perfect but there was a chance she would have worked out a deal amenable to both sides and taken a harder stance with Netanyahu than Biden did. She sort of had her hands tied during her campaign, since she was still an active member of his administration, so it’s not like she could come out 100% against his style of negotiation and appeasement. These protest voters have helped sign Palestine’s death warrant. Hope it was worth it for them.

And while I’m at it, to Hispanic citizens that voted for Trump, particularly those in border states, I hope you never have to experience the humiliation of being detained in the back of an ICE truck to endure questions about your citizenship status, hoping to god the papers and identificatoon you’re carrying is enough to get hem to let you go.

To the African American men that got behind Trump, I truly hope you never have to endure a stop and frisk.

To the zoomer men that got behind Trump, I’m sorry about your penis size and chickless plight, but the is guy is not the savior of or embodiment of masculinity.

 

[The Cat]

But thanks for all the fish.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

From a certain point of view; One side won essentially because its base didnt spend life skipping pep rallies as a point of pride.

 

[Virtual ghost]

What is extra strange is that many people voted for Trump and for their blue senators. Which one by one are getting their races called and they are getting their senate seats (in the swing states that Trump won).

I am sorry but to me this logic of voting just doesn't make any sense. Thus I am truly convinced that the electorate by decent margin just doesn't understand how the system works and what is the point of all this.