Random Politics Thread

[SensEye]

Obvious conclusion: dems need to find new candidate.

In my opinion, that has been obvious for a couple of years now.

Much as I would hate to see Trump win, if it comes to pass, I'll take some solace in the fact the Dems are getting punished for their obstinate loyalty to the Biden/Harris ticket. Stupidity needs to be punished. Unfortunately the cure (Trump) is worst than the disease.

 

[The Cat]

 

[ceecee]

In my opinion, that has been obvious for a couple of years now.

Much as I would hate to see Trump win, if it comes to pass, I'll take some solace in the fact the Dems are getting punished for their obstinate loyalty to the Biden/Harris ticket. Stupidity needs to be punished. Unfortunately the cure (Trump) is worst than the disease.

If you aren't applying that same logic to Trump and the GOP then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[ceecee]

Plus when it comes to general there is also slight problem in the mix.
Which is that the dude is winning every single poll.


RCP Trump vs Biden


The problem is that the Dems need at least 3 point win in popular vote to have realistic shot at electoral college. Clinton won in 2016 by 2.1 and thus lost. While Biden in 2020 won by 4.5 and barely got the key swing states. Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by less than a point and Pennsylvania by 1.2 points. So if the average says Trump +1.6 that is 6 point swing and you are toast in electoral college. You really need brutal polling error to get away in this situation. Not to mention that mistakes tends to favor Republicans by about 2 points.


Just for the record here is how that 6+2 point swing looks on the map if distributed equally across the 2020 results.

Obvious conclusion: dems need to find new candidate.

I do want to point out these polls looked like this in 2022 and was echoed by every pundit and media lanyard for months prior. I would think people would remember that election vividly but that doesn't seem to be the case for the most part.

 

[SensEye]

If you aren't applying that same logic to Trump and the GOP then I don't know what to tell you.

I do, but the GOP are a lost cause right now. The Dems seem to be trying to sink down to their level and beat them at their own game (i.e. outright crooks like Santos and Menendez). Biden/Harris are more incompetent than evil, but the Dems are playing with fire gambling on them. In my mind it would take almost a master class in political incompetence to lose to Trump. The Dems may just pull that off.

 

[Stigmata]

Plus when it comes to general there is also slight problem in the mix.
Which is that the dude is winning every single poll.


RCP Trump vs Biden


The problem is that the Dems need at least 3 point win in popular vote to have realistic shot at electoral college. Clinton won in 2016 by 2.1 and thus lost. While Biden in 2020 won by 4.5 and barely got the key swing states. Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by less than a point and Pennsylvania by 1.2 points. So if the average says Trump +1.6 that is 6 point swing and you are toast in electoral college. You really need brutal polling error to get away in this situation. Not to mention that mistakes tends to favor Republicans by about 2 points.


Just for the record here is how that 6+2 point swing looks on the map if distributed equally across the 2020 results.

Obvious conclusion: dems need to find new candidate.

Polling data has been way off since 2016, and seems to be getting exponentially less reliable with every subsequent election cycle. First off, lots of these polls are collected by cold calling landline telephones, which today doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture of the electorate considering the demographics of people who will actually answer a landlines telephone call from an unknown number.

Second, have you not paid attention to any of the special elections that have taken place around the country in the last few years? If so, considering the Dems have overperformed by an average of 11-points over the last 30 special elections. I don't even see how someone can be vaguely aware of politics and believe there is any positive momentum coming out the Republican party that would in anyway sway independents/moderate/anyone who isn't already knee deep in right-wing propaganda kool-aid -- Roe V Wade has effectively ruined the current iteration of the Republican party, especially at a national level. The media is perpetuating this false narrative that the election is in a "dead heat", the exact same way they did in 2020. Why? Because blowout elections aren't sexy and don't generate engagement.

Like, even just applying some basic armchair logic: If Donald Trump lost by almost 8 million votes, as a sitting president, before the 91 criminal convictions, and before Jan 6th, and before his progressively more deranged outbursts on Twitter, in what world do all those aforementioned things, in a political climate in which Republicans have been getting dominated in almost every statewide election outside of Florida, seem more politically viable to moderates and independents?

The mainstream media is perpetuating a false narrative of the closeness of the election, not necessarily because they want Trump to win, but because, Trump being in headlined, whether you like him or not, is a license to print money for the large media companies. Also, current polling data has a hard time quantifying the effect of negative partisanship, and seems predicated on the false dichotomy that because people aren't thrilled about Biden (he wasn’t my 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice, but I've been pleasantly surprised) that somehow must mean they support Trump.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Polling data has been way off since 2016, and seems to be getting exponentially less reliable with every subsequent election cycle. First off, lots of these polls are collected by cold calling landline telephones, which today doesn't exactly paint an accurate picture of the electorate considering the demographics of people who will actually answer a landlines telephone call from an unknown number.

Second, have you not paid attention to any of the special elections that have taken place around the country in the last few years? If so, considering the Dems have overperformed by an average of 11-points over the last 30 special elections. I don't even see how someone can be vaguely aware of politics and believe there is any positive momentum coming out the Republican party that would in anyway sway independents/moderate/anyone who isn't already knee deep in right-wing propaganda kool-aid -- Roe V Wade has effectively ruined the current iteration of the Republican party, especially at a national level. The media is perpetuating this false narrative that the election is in a "dead heat", the exact same way they did in 2020. Why? Because blowout elections aren't sexy and don't generate engagement.

Like, even just applying some basic armchair logic: If Donald Trump lost by almost 8 million votes, as a sitting president, before the 91 criminal convictions, and before Jan 6th, and before his progressively more deranged outbursts on Twitter, in what world do all those aforementioned things, in a political climate in which Republicans have been getting dominated in almost every statewide election outside of Florida, seem more politically viable to moderates and independents?

The mainstream media is perpetuating a false narrative of the closeness of the election, not necessarily because they want Trump to win, but because, Trump being in headlined, whether you like him or not, is a license to print money for the large media companies. Also, current polling data has a hard time quantifying the effect of negative partisanship, and seems predicated on the false dichotomy that because people aren't thrilled about Biden (he wasn’t my 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice, but I've been pleasantly surprised) that somehow must mean they support Trump.

I am well aware of all this.
The problem is that what you are saying is that this is basically what we looking in 2016. The narrative that he doesn't stand a chance. In 2020 he completely messed up COVID and he almost won. It was so close that we had to wait for results for a week. Therefore if the voters can get through that I am not sure that his legal problems will do much. Especially since economy is objectively struggling. While when it comes to special elections: he wasn't on the ballot. His base is even openly saying that they no longer believe in the party. What means that special elections are a very questionable argument to use.


In the case that the polling shows 2 point swing to the right I wouldn't say anything. However if it is 6 point swing that could be a problem, since in that case the odds of error are much much smaller. In other words you must understand is that it is enough that some independents or gen Z people in swing states skip elections and the whole house of cards is coming down. Especially since new map allows Republicans to win without some key swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. This is exactly why I said the dems need to change the candidate. Since Trumpers will vote even if there is nuclear war going on at the moment. Dems should have the majority, but the real issue is how to get them to vote. While the current candidates just don't seem to be too inspiring (and that is a big risk). It is true that red wave didn't happen in 2022 but that probably means that more pressure will be building for 2024.


My post was a warning but I think that it was legit warning.
I am just under impression that the media are again making too rosy picture and that people will skip voting due to that.

 

[Stigmata]

Examples like these are why I continually say Republicans have no shot. One thing I will give Trump credit for: he knows how to read the proverbial room in terms of the normie American political consciousness, and pivots accordingly.

Now keep in mind Nikki Haley and Tim Scott have largely been marketed to the broader American electorate as "moderates", yet these "moderates" are such zealous pro-capitalist ideologes with no normie instincts, they can't see how bad of a look it is to think advocating for union-busting in 2023 is a flex.

Americans broadly support auto, Hollywood strikes, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

This current iteration of capitalism is becoming untenable -- The UAW stikes. The SAG/Writers strikes. The rail worker's strikes, these labor movements aren't isolated incidents. We're at perhaps the stages of what will be the biggest labor movements in recent history. 40 years of neoliberal policies have changed the political landscape vastly from the 80s when Reagan sticking it to federal air traffic controllers was considered rad.

These people are so deep in their own ideological echos chambers, and seem to believe that continually doubling down on the same shitty policies and fringe, radical candidates is suddenly going to work on the 12th attempt when it hadn't panned out the first 11 times.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Feinstein’s Demise is a Warning for Biden and Trump

 

[Virtual ghost]

This will take a while to clean up.

 

[The Cat]

An ounce of anything is better than a pound of nothing. Something about prevention vs cures.

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Gaetz vows to move to boot McCarthy this week

 

[The Cat]

Something tells me his legal troubles are gonna come back around into the focus...just a hunch.

 

[ceecee]

Something tells me his legal troubles are gonna come back around into the focus...just a hunch.

House GOP May Try to Oust Matt Gaetz Using Ethics Report

As Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) launches his rebellion against House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), multiple reports indicate that House Republicans are looking to get rid of the Florida congressman altogether. According to a report from CNN, an unnamed House Republican said that the caucus wants...

www.mediaite.com

 

[ceecee]

Big GOP donors hoped for an alternative to Trump. Now some are giving up.


He jumped over the wall and primaries are basically over. 43 point lead in RCP average.
Therefore legal problems and the general election is all that remains as barriers.

At least for state GOP's - it's bad. Donors are just ignoring their crazy asses. That's why the Michigan GOP has like $35k and are taking money from their chair's campaign fund. Normally the Detroit News is paywalled but this story seems to be available.

Michigan Republican Party faces financial turmoil, bank records show

The Michigan GOP had about $35,000 in its bank accounts in August, according to internal records that point to to warning signs for the party.

www.detroitnews.com

 

[The Cat]

House GOP May Try to Oust Matt Gaetz Using Ethics Report

As Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) launches his rebellion against House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), multiple reports indicate that House Republicans are looking to get rid of the Florida congressman altogether. According to a report from CNN, an unnamed House Republican said that the caucus wants...

www.mediaite.com

Matt strikes me as the kind of guy who doesnt realize when he gets caught between a rock and a hard place till its too late. He's in this up to his neck and the vultures have been circling for a while. The FC needs to stop gambling and walk away from the table while they still can. But I doubt the far right can see beyond the social media clicks to the writing on the wall.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Matt strikes me as the kind of guy who doesnt realize when he gets caught between a rock and a hard place till its too late. He's in this up to his neck and the vultures have been circling for a while. The FC needs to stop gambling and walk away from the table while they still can. But I doubt the far right can see beyond the social media clicks to the writing on the wall.

Yeah, dude has that vibe.
But I am ok if all of this backfires on him. People need to realize that you can't rise hell for you personal benefit over and over again. I mean you can but there will be consequences.