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Random Politics Thread

Coriolis

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What Happens If More Red States Ban Abortion?


Some numbers and maps regarding the abortion.
Maybe Marjorie Taylor Greene was onto something when she suggested a "divorce" between the red and blue states. Right now, too many people are left with only the option of voting with their feet. Some companies are doing that, too. Let tolerant, progressive people and businesses move away from states determined on restricting their civil rights, sometimes to the point of jeopardizing their health and safety. The persistent disparities in standard of living and economic output will quickly leave the red states behind, especially after the exodus to blue states.
 

Virtual ghost

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Here is one more piece on the topic.


Some GOP Legislators Are Trying To Show They’re Pro-Life, Not Just Anti-Abortion

I would say this is pretty big development and a paradigm shift. In other words the GOP is learning strategies from other developed nations. This is still a long way to go but the idea seems to be landing. As my main local pro life activist said: here we have socialized healthcare, state funded education, state funded high education, very low crime, clean water, various agencies and groups interested in rising normal people, financial help for children or poor families, GMO is banned. Therefore what is the point in aborting children in a place like this simply because they are unwanted in the moment ?

What is indeed pretty uncomfortable argument for the pro choice groups. Therefore this is opening more and more people towards pro-life positions if there is no rape or medically problematic pregnancy involved. Therefore stuff like these are fundamentally changing the debate on the issue and then that spills on the generic ballot (and thus it has evident electoral consequences). So as I said this is potentially very big change that can change a lot. I know that this isn't exactly what many here want to hear but I have decided to say it anyway. Since this potentially leads into major political reshuffle down the road.
 

ceecee

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Here is one more piece on the topic.


Some GOP Legislators Are Trying To Show They’re Pro-Life, Not Just Anti-Abortion

I would say this is pretty big development and a paradigm shift. In other words the GOP is learning strategies from other developed nations. This is still a long way to go but the idea seems to be landing. As my main local pro life activist said: here we have socialized healthcare, state funded education, state funded high education, very low crime, clean water, various agencies and groups interested in rising normal people, financial help for children or poor families, GMO is banned. Therefore what is the point in aborting children in a place like this simply because they are unwanted in the moment ?

What is indeed pretty uncomfortable argument for the pro choice groups. Therefore this is opening more and more people towards pro-life positions if there is no rape or medically problematic pregnancy involved. Therefore stuff like these are fundamentally changing the debate on the issue and then that spills on the generic ballot (and thus it has evident electoral consequences). So as I said this is potentially very big change that can change a lot. I know that this isn't exactly what many here want to hear but I have decided to say it anyway. Since this potentially leads into major political reshuffle down the road.
The GOP is absolutely not pro life. This is why...

But Republican voters — like politicians — aren’t overwhelmingly sold on the idea of spending more money to support families, even when aid is targeted to low-income people.
And they hate the poor even more than abortion.
 

Virtual ghost

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The GOP is absolutely not pro life. This is why...


And they hate the poor even more than abortion.

The key word in what you quoted is "overwhelmingly" since that changes the whole point. They don't need everybody to start playing with this and test the ideas.
However in all this I see clear copies and hints of what right is doing elsewhere. Plus generational change should change quite a few things on the long run. Just wait that they discover that they can tilt many conversations with providing some safety nets in exchange for votes and firm loyalty. Some call this Orbanomics and we all know who likes Orban in US. We will see but I would not be so quick in underestimating this.
 

Virtual ghost

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The key word in what you quoted is "overwhelmingly" since that changes the whole point. They don't need everybody to start playing with this and test the ideas.
However in all this I see clear copies and hints of what right is doing elsewhere. Plus generational change should change quite a few things on the long run. Just wait that they discover that they can tilt many conversations with providing some safety nets in exchange for votes and firm loyalty. Some call this Orbanomics and we all know who likes Orban in US. We will see but I would not be so quick in underestimating this.


MEP Mussolini hands sanitary pad to Italy’s EU commissioner

Here is something fresh.
This is kinda the new form of populism but for the most part it lands fairly well these days. Therefore this will surely spill over the pond if it already isn't (my link suggests that it already did). However sterile or too abstract left wing parties tend to perform pretty badly against this. Plus if we add US winner takes all system the consequences could be massive. This is why I said that you shouldn't be too quick to underestimate these methods. Especially since some will provide results. Bernie on the right is perhaps unthinkable to some people here but this exists in many countries.
 

DiscoBiscuit

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The collapse of the Covid narrative might sufficiently weaken the narrative making machine such that we no longer have to wait 2 years for the truth to come out on issues (i.e. russia collusion etc etc.) Every time a narrative collapses the ability of that narrative making machine to make another weakens.

1678476328287.png


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Congress critters are so risk averse that the instant they don't have narrative cover to play their games they wont. The collapse of the covid narrative is uniquely dangerous to the narrative making machine in that it's a less nakedly partisan story. The shut downs affected everyone and their kids. It didn't just impact one side of the isle. We are coming to a place where the media's ability to manufacture consensus no longer exists, and I can't wait.

The media won't stop trying however until they begin to fear the consequences of getting it wrong. Without accountability, people getting fired etc..., there is no incentive structure for them to do anything but what they have been. I'm less confident in that happening in the near term, except insofar as the audience is moving away from establishment media sources. The problem is that cable bundle deals artificially prop up TV news who get paid regardless of viewership. Cable cutting is working against this but not quickly enough. Establishment partisan sources like the NYT have enough of a captured audience that they won't suffer the consequences of getting it wrong as long as they do so in a leftward direction. This can apply to the right media as well, however the right has no such massive consensus manufacturing machine so they inherently have less leeway to get it wrong.

The hope is that there is enough new media (substack, podcasts etc.) that hews more closely to the truth, and is stealing the establishments viewership (esp among the young) that eventually these new sources will dissolve est. media's ability to be the arbiters of Truth(tm) in the immediate moment.
 
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DiscoBiscuit

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We also might be looking at the beginning of a bank run. We got high on the supply of zero interest debt for too long and the bill is coming due. Shades of '08.
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Virtual ghost

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Yeap, there is evidently a gentle sense of panic in the media.
Therefore the biggest problem will be to convince people not to do bank runs across the country. Because this situation evidently has 2008 feeling to it.
 

ceecee

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Yeap, there is evidently a gentle sense of panic in the media.
Therefore the biggest problem will be to convince people not to do bank runs across the country. Because this situation evidently has 2008 feeling to it.
I dunno, maybe not put all your eggs in the same basket with Peter Thiel?

 
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