Cold war 2.0

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Paul, what is with you and all the dangerous thinking.

Who is Paul?

 

[The Cat]

Who is Paul?

Paul is the one who asks questions. I like Paul.
You were making some good points so I responded as though I were the establishment shill wagging my finger at you for making valid points and we don't tolerate that kind of thing in this fine dining establishment.
It was a satire.​

 

[Red Herring]

Not to mention that rising fertility rate from 1.5 to 2 children per mother isn't something that is that hard to do. Especially if we add rural areas into the mix, where space isn't that much of a problem.

This was some years ago but I remember reading a scientific study about the different factors influencing fertility rates in different European countries over several decades. It was pretty extensive but IIRC the main conclusion was that the number one factor influencing whether or not a couple will have children (and how many) was a secure perspective. Whether the state was helping them (Scandinavia) or a close family network (Mediterranean) was less of a factor as was welfare payments or childcare services (although those obviously don't hurt. It was job security and social security, having a perspective for the future. With the current polycrisis I'm not so optimistic that we'll be able to tackle the demographic problem anytime soon.

I'd say raising the fertility rate is a difficult problem many industrial countries are facing. As you probably know, the wealthier, more stable and safer a society is the lower its fertility rate because a) you no longer need children to work on the farm or support you in old age or simply as a spare because some might die young of hunger or desease and b) people invest much more in the children they do have and standards and expectations rise enormously (in China parents are often expected to gift their son an apartment so he'll be able to find a wive)

Germany, for example, has about the same fertility rate as Japan and is similarly aging. There is no way we'll be able to sustain the country without immigration (without it nobody will pay the pensions for retirees and businesses will have to close because they can't find any workers). We already have a severe shortage of emplyable working age people. The only question is how do we get the immigrants we want and what do we do about the ones that are more difficult to integrate (but need help for humanitarian reasons)? France has the highest fertility rate in Europe but is still below the replacement level. So this affects large parts of the continent. The USA is also clearly below the replacement rate and probably would be so even more without strong migration from the South.

Not sure what you mean by space and rural areas since I don't see how this demographic problem has anything to do with physical space. But if you have an idea on how to solve the demographic problem of many first world countries, let me hear it. I'm sure the governments of Germany, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Italy, Singapore or Spain, etc (or even China!) would also love to hear it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Moscow adds Meta spokesperson to criminal wanted list, TASS reports

Ukraine updates: Kyiv urges support to protect grain exports

Jake Sullivan doesn’t rule out extension of 4-day ceasefire

Arab states condemn Geert Wilders for push to relocate Palestinians to Jordan

In Georgia, 'journalism is no longer considered safe'

 

[Red Herring]

Its not an action movie, and its not a bumper sticker.
Extend the peace for as long as possible.​

"It's almost as if this isn't a simple situation" LOL

Looks like the first group of released hostages included a lot of children and elderly women so humanitarian factors could also play a role. There were also four German citizens among them which did make national news over here. But what about the poor Thai farm workers that got mixed up in all of this? I'd assume the government of Thailand is in a weaker position here than the US government and the Thai hostages have fewer powerful backers trying to get them out. From what I have been reading they even sent a delegation of Muslim Thai politicians over for negotiations but only got a fraction of their people released. I know of at least one Thai migrant worker who got kidnapped by Hamas and then simply killed of later.

I also remember seeing an interview with a Hamas speaker in which he basically said that any adult Israeli was a potential soldier to him and therefor no "true" civilian (what about the children then?) and how he claimed to be suprised the foreign citizens they kidnapped were considered foreigners (he said something along the lines of "all of the sudden they are supposed to be foreigners? We'll have to investigate that" which sounded like to him any Jew is first and foremost an Israeli and he didn't really see them as French citizens even if they were born and raised in France and had a French passport). Yes, the attack must have been thoroughly planned (and there is also strong evidence mounting that even the mass rapes of Israeli women and girls that get talked about far too little were strategically planned and intentional) but given human fallability and chaos they might just have grabbed whomever them could and sorted their victims out later. If there were some American citizens among them, all the better for them.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Not sure what you mean by space and rural areas since I don't see how this demographic problem has anything to do with physical space. But if you have an idea on how to solve the demographic problem of many first world countries, let me hear it. I'm sure the governments of Germany, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Italy, Singapore or Spain, etc (or even China!) would also love to hear it.

What I was trying to say regarding the living space and rural areas: Having 3 or more children in urban environment is generally much more complicated than in rural areas when it comes to space. Since living space in rural area is generally much much cheaper than in urban environment. So it is much easier to create physical space for larger number of children. While where they will live when they grow up is another story, the most important thing is that they are born and that their childhood is decent. Around me there are rural areas with where you can buy a house for 15 000 Euros/$ the last time I checked. Therefore if you work from home you don't have to work in a city. So if you get home so cheaply you can use the difference in the urban and rural house for rising a family that isn't "minimal".


The idea isn't really mine but it makes certain sense as part of some more complicated strategy. The idea is that rural population tries to cover the demographic hole as much as possible. Since urban population is simply unlikely to change all that much in their lives. While the cities are generally crowded as it is.

 

[Red Herring]

What I was trying to say regarding the living space and rural areas: Having 3 or more children in urban environment is generally much more complicated than in rural areas when it comes to space. Since living space in rural area is generally much much cheaper than in urban environment. So it is much easier to create physical space for larger number of children. While where they will live when they grow up is another story, the most important thing is that they are born and that their childhood is decent. Around me there are rural areas with where you can buy a house for 15 000 Euros/$ the last time I checked. Therefore if you work from home you don't have to work in a city. So if you get home so cheaply you can use the difference in the urban and rural house for rising a family that isn't "minimal".


The idea isn't really mine but it makes certain sense as part of some more complicated strategy. The idea is that rural population tries to cover the demographic hole as much as possible. Since urban population is simply unlikely to change all that much in their lives. While the cities are generally crowded as it is.

Well, the fertility rate in Croatia is 1,4. That would have to be some increase. You dropped below the replacement rate in the 1970s. Affordable living space could surely contribute, but as I said there are studies out there that suggest it's a bit more difficult and complicated.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Well, the fertility rate in Croatia is 1,4. That would have to be some increase. You dropped below the replacement rate in the 1970s. Affordable living space could surely contribute, but as I said there are studies out there that suggest it's a bit more difficult and complicated.

Yes, but on the other hand we should stop making the rocket science out of the topic. Since that is large part of the problem. Here some people are finally realizing that not everyone has to live in a big city. What is making large parts of the countryside to be empty. This is exactly what made this dirt cheap housing in certain areas. Plus in a way it is more natural that children grow up in various open spaces than apartment on 4th floor.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

This is why I don't think that it should be that hard to get about 2 children per mother. Most of the continent is close or at least within striking distance of the goal. The only ones that really went off the rail are some areas in the south. What is probably because younger population moved north into more developed areas.

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Regarding the birthrates, immigration and that entire story. The problem is that just about everything suggest that after a certain line mass immigration is a no go zone for the most of the first worlders. Getting some extra workers to help out is acceptable, but once the numbers get high and you are starting to get parallel societies the concept seem to fall part. Especially once various immigrant groups start to fight other immigrant groups on various historic and religious basis. What in the end only boosts the far right of the locals. Which is why developed world will have to find ways how to boost it's own birth rate and automate some jobs. Because all data and elections results point in the direction that the alternatives lead to election of far right. What evidently brings it's own set of problems.


Therefore is probably the best to act in preventive fashion. From what I have seen this was already done in Denmark. Their left wing government moved to the right in few crucial issues and thus the far right is is under control there. What should be a model that needs to be replicated elsewhere. My own country of Croatia has over the last few years become immigrant country for third world people for the first time and clear majority see it in negative fashion. The reasoning for that goes from simple national pride to the hate for the corporations that fuel all of this. Since they are the ones that employ the most of the foreign workers. So either way most of common people don't really see what it brings for them, especially since foreign workers require even less in the terms of wages and benefits. Therefore since they don't care too much about having a western lifestyle they can work for pretty low wages and benefits. What can work as a model but after a certain line it starts to create various problems and distortions for local workers and their families.


While one of the consequences of those distortions is that the sum of right wing parties has increased by about 20% of the electorate. Out of that the most is basically due to the rise of far right. In last EU elections we had only one far right seat in the EU parliament, while now towards polls we will have 3 (out of 12 that we have as a country in the EU parliament). Plus it is not impossible that it happens what happens elsewhere, that far right over performs. Since many of their supporters are hiding their opinion, or they live in totally rural areas and they don't get polled at all. What is pretty big deal because there us a tsunami of elections at the door. For the parliament in the spring, EU elections in the early Summer, presidential in the fall, while regional and local are next spring. While in the polls far right already has what it got in unsuspected last minute surge in the Netherlands. So the odds are that their numbers can only go up. What is quite possible since those people are only right wing in social values. While in economy they are quite left. What is because Slavic nationalism is rejecting colonialism in all of it's aspects as foreign element that isn't welcome. While free market is basically a direct consequence of colonialism. What basically removes one of the key reasons why common people wouldn't vote for such a party.


What means that there are probably interesting times ahead. After all far right is calling for the open use of army regarding the illegal immigration and the public doesn't seem to mind the idea all that much. They also made HQ for the defense of rural areas from big corporations and their interest. What local farmers are supporting and they are organizing protests on a whole bunch of issue. While center right government is evidently unsure how to deal with all of this. Since this used to be their own base. Therefore all of this makes it uncertain how all the story will end. Since things are getting redefined and that opens plenty of other options. There are a fair amount of problems but once you put mass immigration on the top of that you are getting environment where all kinds of scenarios are possible. Therefore this is why I don't see mass immigration as a solution to anything. Since all it can really do is spill the glass completely.

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Bavaria’s premier calls for early election as budget crisis roils German politics




Swedish PM rebukes far-right leader who said mosques should be flattened

Israel-Hamas truce extended by 2 days, Qatari official says

 

[The Cat]

4 days has become six.
Behold good news and rejoice with patience there is a long way to go still, but every day of a pause is more aid and more time for civilians.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Kazakhstan: EU’s helped us hold our own against Moscow, Beijing

If the west manages to dig in here Russia and China will have a big problem. To both this is is this is their backyard.




Ukrainian spy chief’s wife poisoned, Kyiv says

The West is on a world tour against Huawei

Finland shuts border with Russia

Russian court extends detention of US reporter Gershkovich

Niger junta revokes law aimed at curbing migration to Europe

 

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Virtual ghost]

Just as I said, this isn't what it seemed to be.
The guy is going to US even before he is taking the oath of office. In other words this is a pro-western guy who made a circus campaign in order to knock out the pro-china establishment in Argentina. Which was on the path to push Argentina towards China in a much more "permanent" way. However due to quite weak economy they were vulnerable and they got caught with their pants down. This was sneaky but well played from side of the west, which lost most of it's influence in that part of the world. But with this you once again have a point from which you can work further.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Ukraine is spreading operations across the river.