Cold war 2.0

[Virtual ghost]

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

I am not sure what you are asking here ?

I mean, did people predict or behave as though these elections would be an easy victory for some other side than the side that ended up winning? The thing that sticks with me about 2016 is just how much complacency there was, despite the fact that after two terms the presidency usually goes to the other party. I'm wondering if it was like that in Europe or if there was a different dynamic.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I mean, did people predict these elections would be an easy victory for some other side? The thing that sticks with me about 2016 is just how much complacency there was, despite the fact that after two terms the presidency usually goes to the other party. I'm wondering if it was like that in Europe or if there was a different dynamic.

Recent elections in Estonia were won by centrists, what is happening here is just in the domain of polling. While in the Netherlands polls showed a last minute surge what kinda suggested what will happen.


However the real problem here is that you are US citizen and thus you live in a two party system. However in the multiparty system the definition of winning isn't the same as in US. In multiparty system winning means that you are the largest party and thus you are first in line to try making the governing coalition. What usually means that you also get top chair in the whole mix. In other words rarely someone gets over 50% of seats and rules on their own. In other words far right won in Netherlands but as I said it probably wouldn't govern. Since the mainstream parties will almost surely form a coalition and govern like that, since when combined they have much more seats than the far right. This isn't winner takes all system. Actually this is exactly how the far right government in Poland recently lost the office. The mainstream simply had more seats even if far right was the largest individual party. In general polling is Europe is fairly accurate but since this isn't winner takes all you can't really think about it on American way. Since it often happens that dwarfs take down a giant, plus new parties are popping all the time. So there is rarely the exact repeat of what was before. The party of my mayor is just 3 years old. This is exactly why I called US system "static".

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

Recent elections in Estonia were won by centrists, what is happening here is just in the domain of polling. While in the Netherlands polls showed a last minute surge what kinda suggested what will happen.


However the real problem here is that you are US citizen and thus you live in a two party system. However in the multiparty system the definition of winning isn't the same as in US. In multiparty system winning means that you are the largest party and thus you are first in line to try making the governing coalition. What usually means that you also get top chair in the whole mix. In other words rarely someone gets over 50% of seats and rules on their own. In other words far right won in Netherlands but as I said it probably wouldn't govern. Since the mainstream parties will almost surely form a coalition and govern like that, since when combined they have much more seats than the far right. This isn't winner takes all system. Actually this is exactly how the far right government in Poland recently lost the office. The mainstream simply had more seats even if far right was the largest individual party. In general polling is Europe is fairly accurate but since this isn't winner takes all you can't really think about it on American way. Since it often happens that dwarfs take down a giant, plus new parties are popping all the time. So there is rarely the exact repeat of what was before. The party of my mayor is just 3 years old. This is exactly why I called US system "static".

I just mean beware of complacency, including complacency regarding the fact that you could never fall victim to the same vices as Americans. (It appears a Dutch Donald Trump is in the cards here.)

 

[Virtual ghost]

I just mean beware of complacency, including complacency regarding the fact that you could never fall victim to the same vices as Americans. (It appears a Dutch Donald Trump is in the cards here.)

It is the other way around actually, the Dutch Trump is in the cards much longer than the US one (it will soon be 20 years). Plus Dutch have multiparty system and that means that snap elections can be at any time (unlike in US). As a matter of fact these where snap elections because the centrist collapsed in the parliament. So you really can't make completely direct parallels here. Plus supposedly Dutch Trump is gay, and that is the core of his problem with Islam.

On the other hand in Europe you already have worst people than Trump in power, you just have to take a look at the East of the continent.
As I said this is all one pretty fluid system.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

It is the other way around actually, the Dutch Trump is in the cards much longer than the US one (it will soon be 20 years).

Eh, I just assume he'll stay in here as long as he can as he'll have figured out how to eliminate all the obstacles that prevented him from doing that in 2020.

 

[Virtual ghost]

As suspected the Netherlands is having it's 2016 moment.
The exit poll says that far right is the largest party in the new parliament (gray).


Netherlands — 2023 general election


More about this should come out soon.

The results are starting to come in. Far right is the biggest party but with less than 1/4 of the vote. Thus mainstream will just bypass it with coalition and that should be it. Out to the remaining 15 parties in the parliament they should find a way how to make a coalition government. Far right will have a moral victory and the coalition will have to take some elements from them to hold further growth. But this story probably isn't going anywhere for them. They won but in practice they lost.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Eh, I just assume he'll stay in here as long as he can as he'll have figured out how to eliminate all the obstacles that prevented him from doing that in 2020.

In a system where a new party can pop over night you can't make such concrete plans. Since you can always be outflanked by people coming out of nowhere. As a matter of fact it happened that some people made a spoiler party just to mess up calculations of their opponents.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

In a system where a new party can pop over night you can't make such concrete plans. Since you can always be outflanked by people coming out of nowhere. As a matter of fact it happened that some people made a spoiler party just to mess up calculations of their opponents.

What's the BoerBurger thing?

 

[Virtual ghost]

What's the BoerBurger thing?

That is a reference at one of the parties in Netherlands. But I don't know what is a "thing" here.
They had their explosive growth and then they imploded.

It is the green line that goes up quickly and then fades.

Netherlands — 2023 general election


But this shows that the far right doesn't really have a path. It would need to attract multiple coalition parties, what is unlikely. It is much much more likely that the mainstream will make it's own coalition. The only way far right will be able to govern is if they accept to govern as center right with others. What kinda removes much of a problem. If they go too far there will be new snap elections.

However what is significant here is that this will shift certain debates all cross the continent. Netherlands is something like the Massachusetts of EU. In other words if the far right can have 1/4 of the vote here then elsewhere it can really disrupt the status quo. Plus to be be honest all of this is what many voters want. Since voting for far right is some sort of a warning shot to the establishment. Because mass immigration is pretty unpopular across the politics spectrum. Especially since it is often the engine of market liberalization because it introduces people that don't ask for much. In US where no one has much in the terms of workers rights all of this is kinda irrelevant topic. But in the places where workers have considerable benefits this can be pretty disruptive, since now you have to compete with someone that will work just for food and warm bed (and to them this is still major improvement and they are happy about it). So to be completely blunt: mass immigration is introducing US style economics and that is simply unpopular since it has major consequences.

 

[SensEye]

I'd like to see my theory put to the test. That is, a centrist party that is tough on immigration. I predict they would win in a landslide. Far right parties seem to be the only ones who oppose open borders, and they come along with a lot of other worthless baggage (anti-abortion, religious kookieness, authoritarianism, etc). So if the center would just move right on this one issue, they would do well IMO.

 

[Virtual ghost]

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[Virtual ghost]

Can the democracy Europe has cultivated endure?

This is interesting piece, especially since it contains global interactive map of democratic development. Plus there is some other data in there.

 

[Virtual ghost]

I'd like to see my theory put to the test. That is, a centrist party that is tough on immigration. I predict they would win in a landslide. Far right parties seem to be the only ones who oppose open borders, and they come along with a lot of other worthless baggage (anti-abortion, religious kookieness, authoritarianism, etc). So if the center would just move right on this one issue, they would do well IMO.

To be honest I am also wondering about this for years at this point.
Why we have do endure so much drama over a single issue ? This just isn't worth it for pretty much anybody. Plus automation and AI are really starting to take over the economy. Not to mention that rising fertility rate from 1.5 to 2 children per mother isn't something that is that hard to do. Especially if we add rural areas into the mix, where space isn't that much of a problem.

 

[Virtual ghost]

It seems that Ukrainian D-day over the Dnipro is intensifying.

 

[Virtual ghost]

The main story starts at 0:55.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

To be honest I am also wondering about this for years at this point.
Why we have do endure so much drama over a single issue ? This just isn't worth it for pretty much anybody. Plus automation and AI are really starting to take over the economy. Not to mention that rising fertility rate from 1.5 to 2 children per mother isn't something that is that hard to do. Especially if we add rural areas into the mix, where space isn't that much of a problem.

I'd argue the U.S. has a certain responsibility towards the inhabitants of the regions and countries it messed up. 20 years ago, everyone was all about bringing freedom and democracy to the region so it shouldn't be a problem, really. I'm also assuming that this is the same region the migrants in Europe come from, given the rhetoric I've heard over the years.

There's also immigration from the southern border, and those migrants keep several industries afloat (hospitality, agriculture).

 

[Virtual ghost]

I'd argue the U.S. has a certain responsibility towards the inhabitants of the regions and countries it messed up. 20 years ago, everyone was all about bringing freedom and democracy to the region so it shouldn't be a problem, really. I'm also assuming that this is the same region the migrants in Europe come from, given the rhetoric I've heard over the years.

There's also immigration from the southern border, and those migrants keep several industries afloat (hospitality, agriculture).

Ok, but if you have such responsibility towards such areas then it would make much more sense to make a genuine attempt to fix those places. But that would be socialism wouldn't it ?



Plus if you don't have all this immigration on the southern border those industries would find some other equilibrium. Cutting the so called "BS jobs" and more automation could also help in finding alternative solutions. As I told you, in my part of the world immigration is seen as right wing policy. In North America due to it's history all of this is considered normal, but in some other parts this can cause major disruptions. Therefore pushing this on people who don't want it is objectively dangerous. Since pushing this on people who don't want it is basically undemocratic (especially if it is done without a referendum). What then kinda gives people the right to behave in undemocratic manner. Therefore once that happens you basically have free for all and that isn't good. Since divided house on the long run can't stand.


Also this is exactly what I had in mind when I said that your Libertarianism will eventually crash you. Since 21th century requires certain discipline, especially since less and less jobs can be learned in a few months (especially if you don't know the local language, plus when that language isn't English like in most of the Europe that is one big obsticle). What altogather eventually means disruption in labor supply and demand, and thus mass poverty if immigrants and general social instability. After all why on Earth would someone organize socialized healthcare when millions of new young peopel are comming to you every year ? Take a look at the Western Europe, the more imigrants there are the more privatized and weaker is the heathcare. Since the elite can always find someone new as replacement for low level jobs. In other words this is what is driving populism, we don't want to be USA (or China for that manner). We believe that we surpassed that level and we don't want to go back. In other words if socialzied healthcare falls apart in Europe you can pretty much forget about getting that in US. By standard European thought the whole democratic party is basically just a bunch of free market extremists. In other words Europeans in general are supporting the Democrats more due to certain social issues and geopolitics. But for the most part this is where the sympathy ends. In other words now when the Democratic party is becoming less and less white, while average European is unhhapy with it's local situation and mass imigration the situation is pushing many Europeans towards Republicans. Especailly since the internet took away the geographical distance. Therefore what I am trying to say is that mass imigration to Europe is making locals more symathetic to Trump despite all of his flaws. Therefore as that power shifts the Democratic party is losing one of it's main advocates in the online world. This is exactly why I said that you shouldn't underestimate Trump in 2024. On my local forums people in number are openly saying that they will advocate for him online. In other words if 10s of millions of Europeans start to swarm comment sections they can easly swing certain races in swingy areas.


What in the end returns us to my statement: Is mass immigration really worth it ?

 

[The Cat]

I'd argue the U.S. has a certain responsibility towards the inhabitants of the regions and countries it messed up. 20 years ago, everyone was all about bringing freedom and democracy to the region so it shouldn't be a problem, really. I'm also assuming that this is the same region the migrants in Europe come from, given the rhetoric I've heard over the years.

There's also immigration from the southern border, and those migrants keep several industries afloat (hospitality, agriculture).

Paul, what is with you and all the dangerous thinking. We give you busy work, we pay you a small enough amount to keep you scared of losing everything, how do you have time for all this problematic thinking. You shut up and color and wave your flag. The CIA works so hard and you're always bitching about things like responsibility and integrity. Its like you want to go to a black site.

 

[The Cat]

Its not an action movie, and its not a bumper sticker.
Extend the peace for as long as possible.​