Trump vs. Biden

[Totenkindly]

Unless the ballots get to their destinations, the polling is worthless.

That is my huge concern.

Trump gave up on actually trying to win the election.

instead he has pretty much just counted on creating mistrust in the balloting, causing confusion/impediments in regards to the voting process and efficacy, and then has stacked the courts and will try to just cut off vote counting even when it's legitimate under the state laws in question. If all the votes made were counted, there's no doubt he'd lose -- and big in some states.

 

[Jonny]

That is my huge concern.

Trump gave up on actually trying to win the election.

instead he has pretty much just counted on creating mistrust in the balloting, causing confusion/impediments in regards to the voting process and efficacy, and then has stacked the courts and will try to just cut off vote counting even when it's legitimate under the state laws in question. If all the votes made were counted, there's no doubt he'd lose -- and big in some states.

And then you have this quote:

I'm going to be very surprised if Biden wins legitimately, and I don't blame Trump for being extra paranoid about "tear it all down" dems stealing the election. Hopefully that paranoia just leads to extra scrutiny, and a greater sense that the results of the election are fair, regardless of which way it goes. I really don't get the polls, though. Didn't they do something to fix them since 2016? On the one hand you have Trump, upon which the sun rises and sets for those who both love and hate him; strong, independent, pragmatic economic appeal, a very enthusiastic base, a bevy of accomplishments and a solid record of defending himself against a landslide of unfounded accusations and criticism. And on the other hand you have Biden, barely alive, establishment puppet. Nobody knows anything about him, or gives a crap about him. Kamala Harris is almost universally despised as an authoritarian opportunist. Left wing extremists are pulling the kind of shit they can only fantasize that right wing extremists might pull someday, times a thousand, in public view. And the polls still favor Biden. It really doesn't add up. Hope for a Biden win if you must, or want, but if I were you I would very closely guard my expectations.

I read somewhere someone discussing the comparison between Trump and Hitler. The person was basically saying..."Do I think Trump is going to send a bunch of people to the gas chamber? No. But do I think he would do so if it were to his own advantage? Absolutely." And I think that fits. A leader is a product of both his own nature and the nature of his supporters.

What we see in the quote above is a supporter who is well-primed to support the erosion of democracy under the guise of free and fair elections. And that does not bode well, given what we know about Trump. He will push as far as those who support him allow (provided they are a large enough bloc).

If results come in as some expect they might in Pennsylvania, you can bet that Trump will be howling to have the counting stop while he's still ahead (and many absentee votes are still outstanding). And he's primed his supporters to believe that Democrats are out there harvesting votes from dead people and idiots. I've seen numerous advertisements to sign up for Trump's election watching posse, also. These folks could be mobilized to overtaking polling places and halt counting. I recall in 2000 a bunch of Bush operatives did the same thing in Florida.

The groundwork is all there. Depending upon how election night unfolds it could be over relatively early, or it could descend into violence. We just don't know.

The Florida vote should be in and counted by election night. Biden has a 66% chance of winning Florida per 538, and a 81% chance per the Economist. We can surmise that a clear Florida victory would be somewhat lower, say 50% and 65%, respectively. That means that it's a little better than a coin toss that we'll have a Florida win in the Biden column, and the risk of a contested for violent election drops precipitously.

 

[Kingu Kurimuzon]

That is my huge concern.

Trump gave up on actually trying to win the election.

instead he has pretty much just counted on creating mistrust in the balloting, causing confusion/impediments in regards to the voting process and efficacy, and then has stacked the courts and will try to just cut off vote counting even when it's legitimate under the state laws in question. If all the votes made were counted, there's no doubt he'd lose -- and big in some states.

He’s stealing it in real time. It’s painful to watch. Biden needs overwhelming votes so even the ones that aren’t counted will not hurt his chances. Every election people say democracy is at stake and normally I think that’s hyperbole, but this year I believe it’s true.

I’m not voting for Biden so much as I am for democracy. I still intend to hold him to high standards if elected, and may vote against him in 2024, but currently I just want Trump gone.

 

[Jaguar]

Those crazy people in Minnesota are blowing their horns at a drive-in rally. BLOW THOSE HORNS, DAMMIT. Then go vote!

 

[ceecee]

Reuters: Americans plan widespread protests if Trump interferes with election

There's a site set up to organize nationally. I kinda wish there was more emphasis on keeping it peaceful, but at the same time that might lend veracity to propaganda about the protests not having been mostly peaceful up to this point. And I'm glad this hasn't been made into a huge deal, because maybe that'll help it fall off the extreme right's radar (giving them less chance to similarly organize efforts to incite violence within the protesting).

Cusack told me about it.

 

[Virtual ghost]

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Early voting as percentage of the whole 2016 vote.
States above 60%, the places where early vote could mess up polling by visible margins (for races on all levels).



Hawaii: 104.5%
Texas: 100.4%
Montana: 90.1%
Tennessee: 89.7%
Washington 88%
New Mexico: 87.9%
Oregon: 87.8%
Georgia: 86.9%
Arizona: 86.5%
North Carolina: 85.6%
Nevada: 82.2%
Florida: 81.6%
New Jersey: 79.6%
Colorado: 78%
Vermont: 76.4%
Utah: 73.8%
Massachusetts 66.2%
Arkansas: 66%
Kentucky: 65.7%
Maryland: 63%
California: 62.7%
North Dakota 62.3%
Virginia: 61.2%

 

[The Cat]

 

[The Cat]

 

[Z Buck McFate]

Cusack told me about it.

It looks like he's quietly emphasizing the peaceful part. I hope (if it's needed) it's huge and it stays peaceful.

Reuters: Madame Tussauds in Berlin dumps Trump before U.S. election

BERLIN (Reuters) - The waxwork museum Madame Tussauds in Berlin loaded its effigy of TV star-turned Republican president Donald Trump into a dumpster on Friday, a move apparently intended to reflect its expectations of next Tuesday's presidential election.

In what seemed a further calculated insult, the statue of his predecessor and nemesis Barack Obama, who counted Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel among his closest allies, remained in place, beaming and besuited.

"Today's activity is rather of a symbolic character ahead of the elections in the United States," said the museum's marketing manager Orkide Yalcindag. "We here at Madame Tussauds Berlin removed Donald Trump's waxwork as a preparatory measure."​

Heh heh.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

538 has Trump at a 1 in 10 chance.

Last time, after the stupid Comey letter (I'm actually glad he got fired), Trump has a 1 in 3 at this point. 1 in 3 is really not that much worse than a coin flip. 538 wasn't really wrong last time. Trump had a pretty good shot.

1 in 10 isn't nothing, but it's way worse than 1 in 3. That's like finding a dentist who doesn't like a toothpaste. It's pretty good for something like an election.

 

[Jaguar]

Screw 538. They don't run the USPS.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

So that article from that WaPo article that has Jaguar in a fetal position showing that the part of Pennsylvania with only 85% on time is in the MIDDLE OF THE STATE. That's where all the Republicans are. Also, it's rather mountainous and that might be what's driving the delays.

Garbage misleading clickbait headline.

 

[Jaguar]

Pharrell Williams threatens to sue Trump over playing "Happy" at rally

 

[Totenkindly]

So that article from that WaPo article that has Jaguar in a fetal position showing that the part of Pennsylvania with only 85% on time is in the MIDDLE OF THE STATE. That's where all the Republicans are. Also, it's rather mountainous and that might be what's driving the delays.

Garbage misleading clickbait headline.

" In the Detroit processing facility, employee availability was only 78.2 percent, the agency reported. In the Central Pennsylvania facility, it was only 84.4 percent."

That's not talking about on time, it's talking about staffing at the processing center. Or did I miss something?

Anyway, this processes mail for central PA, where I lived in various locations over 40 years. Harrisburg city is dem, but yes, the surrounding areas and counties are pretty GOP. Your main dem areas besides the capital city itself are Philly, up in Allentown, and some areas near Pittsburgh, I think.

The Top 10 Pa. cities -- that aren't Philly and Pittsburgh -- where the 2020 Dems have to campaign | Analysis | Pennsylvania Capital-Star

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

" In the Detroit processing facility, employee availability was only 78.2 percent, the agency reported. In the Central Pennsylvania facility, it was only 84.4 percent."

That's not talking about on time, it's talking about staffing at the processing center. Or did I miss something?

Anyway, this processes mail for central PA, where I lived in various locations over 40 years. Harrisburg city is dem, but yes, the surrounding areas and counties are pretty GOP.

I was focusing on Pennsylvania. My point was that it's very misleading because the areas with the biggest issues with processing in Pennsylvania are Republican. I looked at the maps.

 

[Totenkindly]

I was focusing on Pennsylvania. My point was that it's very misleading because the areas with the biggest issues with processing in Pennsylvania are Republican. I looked at the maps.

That is what I said. I was just pointing out you misread what the paragraph said. Geez, man.

 

[Julius_Van_Der_Beak]

That is what I said. I was just pointing out you misread what the paragraph said. Geez, man.

No, I didn't. That's what I said originally.

 

[Coriolis]

Over a dozen posts containing little more than petty bickering were removed. Just because constructive discourse eludes our politicians, doesn't mean it is impossible for us. Do try to include some substance in your remarks, and remember to take issue with the post, not the poster.

 

[Lark]

I think even if the Trumpocrats are defeated there's major lessons to be learned from all of the developments over the past few years.

There's a lot of genies that cant be put back into bottles and a whole generation has been exposed to political radicalism as right wing and the right wing as an alternative, the echos and traces of that are going to last, even if the real content disappears.

I also dont think that the left has learned many lessons at all, not even moderates, and very definitely not the cultural campaigners. They really should not take the lesson out of things that because people so disliked the alternative to them that they are actually supportive of them. That's not the case. I also hope they dont ever entertain the dumb idea that they can impose whatever they like provided they hold office.

There's a lot of communication and thinking learning to be done, some of it is not that complex, you can not discuss anti-racism without discussing racism and that is precisely how a lot of racists like it, that's just one, simple, example. I think the left still defines itself in terms of what it objects to or wants to resist instead of a positive alternative, often if it does its shockingly vague, full of neurotic needs and stuff like that which will not be shared by most people.

 

[Virtual ghost]

Early voting ends in all states at the same time ?