I don't know...I know it's supposed to come with 40 virgins or whatever, but I don't think Iran's leaders are that suicidal. They would all be dead within weeks of open war. Trump has been bending over backwards to avoid getting sucked into a Middle East conflict, and especially after pulling out of aphganistan, if I was Iran and vying for control over Iraq I'd perceive that as an exploitable weakness and push hard to see if I could get the states out of there as well. The Soleimani hit could not have been more perfectly timed or executed. He was the perfect combination of high rank- to give other leaders a reason to fear for their own lives regarding their decisions- and terrorist garbage, so nobody in the general population will miss him enough to enlist for battle. It put Iran on such a degree of tilt as to shoot down one of its own passenger jets and endanger the regime all the more. Everything about this was a slam dunk for the United States. I celebrated Obama killing osama bin laden. This doesn't have to be a partisan issue.
Speaking of, there's a lot of people on the right that have a problem with calling this an assassination. I don't really understand the argument there. What else was it?
I don't think you realize the size of avalanche that could have come out of this (and it still can due to threats and promises of restarting the nuclear program).
First of all Iran aren't really terrorists, they are country of decent size and power that is hostile to USA for decades. Second, you presume that USA is some kind of almighty force that can do anything. While if that were true all of these conflicts would have been won long ago. USA has power but that power at this point is spread pretty thin around most of the world. Therefore for open fight with Iran you would need to divert forces from elsewhere to push into this. Because once you start you have to go all the way in leveling their regime and taking full control over mountain country that is almost 3 size of Texas. In other words if you don't go all the way you are risking that their proxies and pockets troll you all over the place for years. (just like Iraq)
Another problem is the wider picture since this isn't really just a show between US and Iran. If the total war starts it is possible that someone will help Iran, especially their key allies Russia and China. Therefore if they just decide to supply them well that will be real pain in the ass for US and its plans for middle east. This is why I mentioned "taking one for the team". Another awkward element is India which traditionally gets a fair chunk of it's oil from Iran. Therefore if US creates mess there they have directly struck into Indian interests. While India itself is currently fairly undecided if it will go more with the west or East (India is decently armed nuclear power with over 4 times more people than USA). Similar situation is also in Europe that sees itself less and less as US ally because your president is the only party out of what I believe to be 7 of them that broke away in the nuclear deal (and many other international deals). The deal wasn't perfect but it perhaps should have been renegotiated, since now Iran has openly said that it will continue the nuclear program. What means that the total war is basically certain on the long run. However if USA creates another mess in the middle east with refugees the Europe will turn it's back on you (especially if Trump is re-eleted). The same works for Turkey that is already basically gone and is US rival.
However if Europe, India and some smaller countries turn away from USA it's global dominance is over. It is 300 million Americans vs 4500+ million Euro-asians, what is economic fight you can't possibly win even if you have 0 zero debts (what isn't the case). Most of the world already thinks that US is factor of instability and if US creates another mess that will have consequences. Therefore if Iran decided to react and take one for the team due to internal struggles or whatever the USA would be in serious problems. While their leaders can probably always run into neighboring Russia. Plus already mentioned moving of troops would leave US vulnerable in other regions. What opens the path for local renegotiations and new influences. While even more problems will come from jumping oil prices, already too big budget deficit and less will to trade with US. Therefore entire American policy towards Iran is basically one big playing with fire while you are covered in gasoline.
Here is something fresh to think about. The whole EU is thinking about going East and generally against USA. If China and Russia make a few good moves and USA bad ones the Europe will probably shift sides. What is already happening on local levels in some places throughout Europe.
Europe’s moment of truth with China
